Do the Democrats Have Their Ticket?

The conventional wisdom is that after New Hampshire, the Democratic presidential equation is murky. Who's the front runner? It's difficult to say. Viewed another way, though, the Democratic future might now be clear for the next four, eight, twelve, or even sixteen years.

After enduring the scare of her life, Hillary Clinton has righted herself. She leads Barack Obama in the national polls. She is more battle-tested than he and has, as she says, been more vetted. She has now won something presidential on her own, showing a resilience and an appeal that had up to now been only theoretical. She's no longer "inevitable," which makes her more likely to win. To my mind, she has to be the favorite.

So, the question turns to a running mate. Again, the assumption is that it cannot be Obama. In the usual calculation, he makes no sense. He appeals largely to people who will vote for Clinton anyway. He brings no swing states into her column. Besides, she's Hillary, not one to do anything adventurous. She and her minions, the same geniuses who very nearly cost her the nomination, will crunch lots of numbers, and out will come some white guy from a border state, like Jim Webb or Evan Bayh. And she's Clinton. She has a long memory, won't want anyone upstaging her, and is sure to resent something Obama does or says or has already said, like his grudging statement of hemidemisemi-admiration for her in the debate the other night.

But this is not an ordinary campaign, and Obama is no ordinary campaigner. As his concession speech last night again made clear, his is more of a movement than a campaign. It has unleashed tremendous passion, particularly among young voters and African-Americans. He has brought, and can continue to bring, people to the polls who don't normally show up there. He can, for one thing, deliver some of those black voters that Jesse Jackson was forever promising but never actually produced, at least in a way that made much of a difference. Unleashing those voters, along with the women (for the first time last night, they showed some passion for one of their own) a Clinton-Obama team would generate its own rules. It would trump the usual shibboleths about ticket balancing. There is some precedent for such out-of-the-box thinking, and it comes from Bill Clinton, who chose another white Southerner. And Al Gore brought him far fewer votes than Obama would bring his wife. And this is a year for unconventional thinking. John McCain is unconventional. After all, he could well pick a Jewish Democrat to run with him.

So Hillary gets nominated and elected. Or Hillary loses to McCain. Either way, Obama is the Democratic heir-apparent. Indeed, under this scenario he has a better shot at the presidency than she does. And maybe even in four years. After all, his opponent will be 76 years old!

Comments

[batguano]

IF Billary is nominated and if McCain doesn't pick the traitor quisling "Holy Joe" Lieberman as running mate, then Shillary could choose him and continue her slavish pandering to the Israeli right-wing and AIPAC!....­Or maybe Marc Rich for VP? There are a lot of other corporate whores out there for her to choose too. Ya think she will remember the "tears from the heart" thing when she makes the choice? What is her record? Who pulls her strings?
The corporations, super-rich and powerful will DO ANYTHING to maintain their control over our nation and the only candidate who is articulating that struggle and truth with any visible resolve or consistency is John Edwards!
I guess we are just too blind to who our real enemies are to see the truth....t­oo much wage-slave­s....too controlled by corporate media spin and BS...we really WANT to believe but get lied to and shafted in every election of recent memory and our families and children suffer....­and the super-rich and greedy corporations continue to feed off our bodies, evade just taxation and reform of our CIVILIAN priorities like health care, taxation, trade policy, our only environment and the Military Industrial Complex. Cynical?..­.you bet I am!

Edwards/Obama in 2008! Two 8 year terms for each will hopefully be a good start to undo the nightmare the Bush/Neocon Regime has brought to our Nation!

some Edwards positions for our future!
http://www.johnedwards.com/issues/govt-reform/
http://www.johnedwards.com/issues/global-poverty/

[JoAnnCr]

The tight race gives all states a say. Finally! My hope is for none of the candidates to have 2050 delegates until the last state gets to vote. That would be a milestone!

Of course then there's those pesky superdelegates.

[Mr.Fitz]

I don't know, but what I do know is that this election is confusing me. Here are the facts: I'm a relatively poor (to other white folk), overeducated, inexperienced, white man, and I don't know who I'm supposed to vote for.

Ok, so Hilliary is a white woman, so I'm supposed to identify with her being white, but not as a woman; and Obama is black, but he's also male, so I'm supposed to identify with his being a man; and Edwards is a white guy, so I should identify with him, and he speaks for poor people. Ah ok, I have it now, but if it's between Obama and Hillary, who should I pick?

Furthermore, who should a black woman pick-- Obama, because he is black, or Clinton because she is a woman?

[AxelDC]

Clinton wins NH by 2 pts and its game over?

I don't know which is worse: the ridiculous primary system or the idiots in the press who think they know what they are talking about.

[WIDESTANCE]

hillary + someDNCwhiteguy = no vote from me

hillary + obama = my vote

(with the hope that 16 years of democratic rule can somehow repair the massive damage of the last 8 years to american democracy and freedom)

[thegaygardener]

Ladies & Gentleman!
The President of The United States...

JOHN MCCAIN.

[OSUMercutio]

While I agree that it might be a "winnable" ticket, the Clintons would NEVER EVER EVER EVER pick Obama.

[apcalc]

I voted for Kerry/Edwards, but wasn't real excited about the ticket. I just couldn't stand the thought of George Bush another 4 years.

Kerry was always doing self deprecating things like the apology above.

His wife, Theresa, had much more chutzpah - wish I could have voted for her.

I will say that the whole apology thing bugged me. I wish Kerry had showed some backbone and said "Hell no!" and had stuck to it.

Meanwhile, singling out Hillary for this is a bit much - there were tons of people saying John should explain and apologize. I dont remember her even being involved.

[Rescisco]

Hillary and Obama, Obama and Hillary. Either way its history. Its also another loss for the Dems. Whoever wins the nominstion would be better served by selecting someone else. Remember, as good as this may look to us, this country is still not progressive and the general election will be close enough that the Dems could lose a third straight winnable election.

[Larry of Corrales]

Give me a break. Hillary is not going to be our nominee. Just because a bunch of Republican and independent (who we all know are really Republicans in sheep's clothing) women in New Hampshire voted for her doesn't mean clear thinking women around the country won't see that she is not a whole lot different than most Republicans. If she is our nominee, she will lose and we will have nothing to look forward to but 4 more years of Republican rule.

[DatelessNerd]

For what it's worth, here's the committed delegate count after New Hampshire: Obama 25, Clinton 24, Edwards 18.

If Obama and Clinton remain close, John Edwards could have a great deal of say as to who the nominee is.

Obama/Edwards '08???

[MAX1]

.

P E O P L E

There ARE 48 more states to go... NO?

.

[Boadicea]

If Hillary wins the nomination, and I don't think she will, but if she does, the Republican will win the White House. Millions of Republicans who would have stayed home will come out, but perhaps more devastating for Democrats downticket, millions of Democrats will stay home.

[MichaelO]

An Obama/Hillary, Hillary/Obama ticket can't lose.

[ProudLiberalDan]

It's way too early to ask for this, but both candidates should be willing to agree to a Clinton/Obama ticket in whatever order if that is what it will take to unify the party.

The stakes are too high for the country for either of them to pick up their ball and go home.

For the moment, let Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Kucinich continue to campaign and fight it out.