Obama's Already Won

It's nine months until the election, seven months until the Democratic national convention, and four days until Super Tuesday. But already, it's clear that Barack Obama has won, at least in one key respect. Only he can now say that at some point, some day, he will be the Democratic presidential nominee.

It may happen in 2008. I'd still put his chances at less than 50-50, but he's rapidly approaching that mark; Clinton retains a slight lead, and is essentially running out the clock. Even if it doesn't happen this year, Obama will be the vice presidential nominee -- that is, if he wants it. Others make more sense for Hillary to pick, and she'll clearly try to do so; for all of the smiles last night, she'd surely prefer someone more pliable, subservient, and appreciative. And someone who'd appeal to a constituency that's actually in play, like border state moderates (James Webb for them) or Hispanics (Bill Richardson) But so great would the pressure be to pick Obama that she'd effectively have no choice.

Offer in hand, Obama can then handicap her chances against John McCain. If he thinks she'll win, he'll take the post, and become both vice president and heir apparent. If he thinks she'll lose, he'll run for the seasoning and exposure, or pass it up and save himself the tsouris; he'll be the heir apparent anyway. One way or another, then, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, whether in 2008, 2012, 2016, or 2020 (that is, assuming this country's tendency to knock off its most promising politicians doesn't repeat itself.) Since he's a young man (and has quit smoking) he can afford the wait.

Hillary Clinton might lead in delegates and in the national polls (for now) but she has no such guarantees. This year is her only shot, and she may not get even that. She's not even a good bet for number two; why would Obama assume all of her baggage? We don't yet know who won Super Tuesday. But in one real sense, Barack Obama has already won even more. A presidential nomination: it's not a bad thing to have in your pocket. Maybe that's why he's in such a good mood these days.

Comments

[SEQUOIABISON]

Pessimism, equivocation, doubt, hedging, negativity, lack of enthusiasm, and self-fulfilling cynical prophesies do not win elections. Confidence, and a yes we must attitude will win an election.

Lets not get into a hedge our bet mentality so we can later say I told you I was skeptical, if our candidate Obama does not win the nomination.

A wholehearted commitment and risking it all by believing he now has the momentum to win the prize, is what is required at this stage.

If you cannot see the excitement Baracks campaign is generating and the overwhelming support from the youth of our nation, and the important endorsements he is garnering, than you are not paying attention.

At this point I cannot see anything right now that will stop his march to the nomination, this is a movement that will no longer settle for the status quo or a step backwards, we have chosen a leader who will move this country forward and nothing or no one is going to impede this inevitability.

Barack Obama a new start for America and the world.

[Parkhurst]

"It may happen in 2008. I'd still put his chances at less than 50-50, but he's rapidly approaching that mark; Clinton retains a slight lead, and is essentially running out the clock."

Yawn. . . not this again This is complete nonsense, based on little more than an automated self administered Rasmussen poll of dubious value, coupled with a few data of a Gallup TRACKING poll, which tends to wander wildly over small interval. Why don’t we wait for the actual poll?

[happycozy]

My problem with David's post is that it's insulting to say that if Obama loses the primaries he still wins. What the hell kind of consolation is working under the Clintons--­essentiall­y being the co-vice president at best and being the assistant vice president at worse. Why are blacks always asked to wait? When King staged protests in the South, black ministers and politicians alike asked him to wait--it wasn't time for civil rights. David is doing the same thing. Let Obama wait. He'll be more experienced later. Then when he's waited long enouch for the Washington elite, anti-Obama people will nitpick at his voting record, and he will be billed the Washington establishment. I'm growing disillusioned with our democratic process everyday because any candidate who bucks the status quo in Washington is "taken out", but given some lame consolation prize to get him/her on board, and then s/he become part of the status quo. One needs only to look at Howard Dean as evidence.

[candlewax]

I think you're missing the point. Obama can afford to wait but the American people CANNOT! That is the meaning of the FIERCE URGENCY OF NOW.

America needs Barack....­NOW!

[AxelDC]

You don't get it, do you? Oprah is not a black representative. She is the woman's evangelist. She blunts Clinton's main strength, being a female candidate. She tells women, "Sure, it'd be great to have a woman president, but Obama is my choice for president.­"

My mother and both my sisters watch Oprah nearly every day, and we are as white as you get. She doesn't have much appeal to me, but my mother had hardly heard of Obama until Oprah started talking about him. My sister decided to vote for Obama after hearing Oprah.

Hillary Clinton wants this to be about race and gender. She wants Obama limited to black voters while she dominates the female votes. Obama has a much broader appeal than that, and it is offensive that people think Latinos won't vote for a black man. The Clintons' divide and conquer strategy angered Tom Daschle and Ted Kennedy and it angers me.

As for California, I've seen two polls showing Obama within 3 points of Clinton. Don't be surprised to see him win California and several other states on Tuesday. He is getting nearly all of Edwards' voters, putting him within striking distance of the nomination.

Clinton has to win big on Feb. 5th or she is out. Obama can weather Feb. 5th and still win the nomination. If Clinton loses big states like California, she has little hope of winning in Texas, the last big prize in this race. Her money will dry up and it will be over. Obama just has to see viable to stay in the race, and if he pulls ahead, he will run away with it.

[IndyProd]

Hillary is wearing the scarlet letter L on her forehead. The L is not for Liberal. It is for LOSER. She knows how divisive and hated she and her husband are by huge numbers of democrats. She doesn’t give a shit. She is a raving egotist, blinded by ambition.
And McCain will walk all over her, which is why the republicans have wanted her to be the candidate for the past couple of years.
Hillary has given no indication that she has any creativity, any passion about any issues, or for that matter any consistent commitment to any policy or person except herself.
How can anyone in his right mind want Hillary and Bill back in the Whitehouse? Do you really want four or eight more years of this pathetic dysfunctional family in your face and in your news every day? Aren’t you just disgusted enough with their soap opera to want someone new, someone more normal, someone more statesmanlike?
McCain is not the alternative for us anti-Hillary democrats. We should simply vote Green.

[clsez]

This is going viral...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHA_ZTvOgUM

or

http://yeswecansong.com

[ilcapo]

Obama is gonna win the nomination this year,it s in the air,he s closing in fast on Clinton nationally,even in California­...he brings in too many young voters,independents and even republicans,Hillary just doesn t

[ladygreenslippers]

Obama has NOT already won. A win is a win, however small. Who remembers the people who came close? NO ONE! we remember who won.

My point is, the American people still have to VOTE! Get up and vote, because coming close to winning just isn't good enough.

Obama '08

[Cajoku]

Barack is an exceptional person who has a power to command speeches in such ways that thousands could gwt electrified. As a black man I feel proud of his accomplishments and I wish him a major success in his political carreer. That beig said, I must sadly agree with the majority of the people on this forum that clinton made him look like a newcomer at the debate yesterday. I am not a clinton supporter but I must vote her because she already as a direction with soecifics. Obaman does not. I nd my family decided for HAC yesterday and so be it!!!

[nancytheragingliberal]

We do not need the Clinton Machine back in the WH, however, I would vote for her if she is the candidate. There is no way the country can withstand another 4 years of repub. "rule". Talk about destruction of the country in every arena assessed. Repubs. are foul, evil-filled beasts, with no "compassionate conservatism" as far as I can see. They would walk over you, if you were down and out in the street. Compassionate conservatives, my A**. I am voting for an important cause.....­.Think....­Supreme Court.

[LunaLea]

As a Republican who would have voted for Edwards, I have a question. I keep reading that Clinton supporters won't votefor Obama and visa versa. Who WILL you all vote for? It's easy for me now that Edwards is gone, but if the Demos are so divided, how do you expect to even come close to winning? And how do you think you can get Bush hating Republicans and independents to vote for a Demo if you all can't even agree?

[CjAzure]

The time is NOW for President Obama.
YES WE CAN! Obama 08!

[BJG]

Isn't it ironic where the final and last debate was held? The only thing this megalomaniac is worthy of winning, is an Oscar for the greatest performance of the century! Unbelievable! It's mind boggling how five short years ago this guy was a NOBODY and only won his senate seat because both his opponents dropped out - sex scandals. And now, he and all his sycophants truly believe he's "entitled" to be president and think he's the next JFK. Uh yi-yi. This is why they not only need to pass a law that requires a competency test for all candidates - Rudy 9iu11ani - but those who vote and write about them. How can people not see he's Bush's twin brother - there's damn good reason why his handlers keep him isolated from the press on his campaign bus - fearing he'll expose his own ignorance - not one person in the entire media mentioned him saying MassaTOOsetts last night. Gimmie a break! And then there's good ole Michelle saying he's magic. Why do you think Clinton called it a fairy tale? Didn't you see the wand?

[Buddhabman]

Simple decision - Move forward or rehash the past.

Obama 08