Obama's Already Won

It's nine months until the election, seven months until the Democratic national convention, and four days until Super Tuesday. But already, it's clear that Barack Obama has won, at least in one key respect. Only he can now say that at some point, some day, he will be the Democratic presidential nominee.

It may happen in 2008. I'd still put his chances at less than 50-50, but he's rapidly approaching that mark; Clinton retains a slight lead, and is essentially running out the clock. Even if it doesn't happen this year, Obama will be the vice presidential nominee -- that is, if he wants it. Others make more sense for Hillary to pick, and she'll clearly try to do so; for all of the smiles last night, she'd surely prefer someone more pliable, subservient, and appreciative. And someone who'd appeal to a constituency that's actually in play, like border state moderates (James Webb for them) or Hispanics (Bill Richardson) But so great would the pressure be to pick Obama that she'd effectively have no choice.

Offer in hand, Obama can then handicap her chances against John McCain. If he thinks she'll win, he'll take the post, and become both vice president and heir apparent. If he thinks she'll lose, he'll run for the seasoning and exposure, or pass it up and save himself the tsouris; he'll be the heir apparent anyway. One way or another, then, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, whether in 2008, 2012, 2016, or 2020 (that is, assuming this country's tendency to knock off its most promising politicians doesn't repeat itself.) Since he's a young man (and has quit smoking) he can afford the wait.

Hillary Clinton might lead in delegates and in the national polls (for now) but she has no such guarantees. This year is her only shot, and she may not get even that. She's not even a good bet for number two; why would Obama assume all of her baggage? We don't yet know who won Super Tuesday. But in one real sense, Barack Obama has already won even more. A presidential nomination: it's not a bad thing to have in your pocket. Maybe that's why he's in such a good mood these days.

Comments

[kash79]

What boils my blood is, Hillary talks about "looking into the future," The way our politicians voted to take us to war- billions of dollars of cost- the corruption in Iraq, black water, abu gharib, on and on and on..More importantly how can she muster the nerve NOT TO ADMIT HER MISTAKE AND FORCE US TO LOOK IN TO THE FUTURE- I DON"T THINK for FAMILIES OF 4000 dead marines and thousands of Iraq's who died it's easy to forget the past look into the future.

It's clear Barack opposed it from the beggining. And that may not be sufficient for someone to vote for him...But It's not even about Obama.

How can the democratic party elect someone who authorized for a errorneous war and doesn't admit it was a mistake? It's insulting to the emotion and intelligence of the entire nation.

[vbond]

This post completely misses the point of the Obama candidacy.

His candidacy is not about positioning Obama, it is about positioning America.

Neither of us can read his mind, but I can read mine:

We... need... him... now.

[raider08]

For the Hillary-hating Obama supporters who wouldn't vote for Clinton if she's the nominee - there is little difference between the two of them. Besides, he says they are FRIENDS so if you cannot support his FRIEND, then you must believe he is a poor judge of character. Or, if you believe he only said it for political reasons, then you would have to admit he is just like any other politician.

[poeticjustice4all]

This is a well-reasoned article -- but racism is a big wildcard not considered here. I know we'd all like to think we've moved past skin color, but reality doesn't bear that out. Bigotry has to be included. I'm not so sure Barack Obama has already won the presidential nominee. Although clearly, he's pulled ahead of Clinton at this point and is the front-runner. Gender might also throw a wrench into the works. If a bunch of women suddenly get angry all bets are off.

[Pneumaticus]

Oh, boy, Oprah, Obama, Hokey, Pokey, Okie Dokie.

[illinoisan]

Yes but we already knew that the night he gave that speech at the 2004 convention. Everybody knew it and lots of folks said it.

Hillary plateaued long ago and Obama is still on the rise. The polls are lagging. It's already his to lose and he ain't losin'.

[filmunas]

I wonder if Mr. Margolick is a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton? His patronizing attitude toward Barack Obama is disgusting and offensive. I am for Obama for Prez 08, or never. And no Clinton on the ticket!

[GoldCanyonGal]

2016 seems like a good year, after 8 years as Hillary's VP.

[AnninCA]

That's interesting since the real betting guys are calling this .... Hillary win.

Seems like Obama has had momentum since SC, but then again, The Denver Post just endorsed Clinton, I've read bunches of articles now saying she clearly bested him in the debate, and Mondale is now stumping for her. Richardson is watching the Superbowl with Clinton, and 2 new Bobby Kennedy ads are rolling out with Latinos.

So that's really not all that shabby for someone who has "lost" already. :)

[lifelongvoter]

What a foolish post. Who can predict the future. 4, 8, 12, 16 years is a long time. Who knows where someone will be? This is Obama's time as Paul Neuman said in THE VERDICT "this is THE case", Obama needs to be the nominee this year!!! If he is not...well that is thought I can not comprehend­...If he is not, then hello to years and years of Republican rule.

[Boadicea]

If Hillary is the nominee, Americans will yet again have to choose between two war candidates.

How soon we forget. Hillary Clinton was even more pro-war in 2003 than John McCain was. Don't people remember her Senate speech saying how all her experience led her to decide that we needed to invade Iraq?

What the f*** is the matter with people?

Democrats have completely whitewashed Clinton's responsibility for this war, a war of undetermined length, with undetermined cost. A war that never should have been authorized.

Clinton didn't even read the NIE, for god's sake. And people want to make her the president. Just because she's been around DC forever doesn't mean she should be president.


Lincoln Chaffee asked for a private briefing with intelligence officials. Clinton could have done that, too. But no, she knew it all already.

If the choice is between two war candidates, I'll choose McCain. He at least is nice.

[GhostOfSchlesinger]

I've sent my entire list an email to let them know that the "Dream Ticket" portion of this story is a TROJAN HORSE designed to SUPPRESS VOTES for Obama on Super Tuesday.

Everyone knows that such a course would be bad for Senator Obama on many levels. In fact, it is safe to say that he discarded the notion a couple primaries ago.

Having said that, the author is correct about the fact that Obama's wave has not peaked, while, even according to people that support Hillary's campaign, she hit her ceiling a long time ago.

All we have to do is come up near even on Tuesday and it's effectively over for Senator Clinton's campaign.

They know that . . .

HENCE, TODAY'S TROJAN HORSE, SUPPRESS THE VOTE STORY.

[Meurs]

Impossible to say, and I'm a strong Obama supporter. He'll be yesterday's news in 2016, even 2012, and you don't know what flashy new thing will catch the MSM's eye.

[crabcake]

What? Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee? What's going on here?

[sanglug]

Third wheel with the Clintons is not a desirable position. Just ask Al Gore.