Obama's Already Won
It's nine months until the election, seven months until the Democratic national convention, and four days until Super Tuesday. But already, it's clear that Barack Obama has won, at least in one key respect. Only he can now say that at some point, some day, he will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
It may happen in 2008. I'd still put his chances at less than 50-50, but he's rapidly approaching that mark; Clinton retains a slight lead, and is essentially running out the clock. Even if it doesn't happen this year, Obama will be the vice presidential nominee -- that is, if he wants it. Others make more sense for Hillary to pick, and she'll clearly try to do so; for all of the smiles last night, she'd surely prefer someone more pliable, subservient, and appreciative. And someone who'd appeal to a constituency that's actually in play, like border state moderates (James Webb for them) or Hispanics (Bill Richardson) But so great would the pressure be to pick Obama that she'd effectively have no choice.
Offer in hand, Obama can then handicap her chances against John McCain. If he thinks she'll win, he'll take the post, and become both vice president and heir apparent. If he thinks she'll lose, he'll run for the seasoning and exposure, or pass it up and save himself the tsouris; he'll be the heir apparent anyway. One way or another, then, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, whether in 2008, 2012, 2016, or 2020 (that is, assuming this country's tendency to knock off its most promising politicians doesn't repeat itself.) Since he's a young man (and has quit smoking) he can afford the wait.
Hillary Clinton might lead in delegates and in the national polls (for now) but she has no such guarantees. This year is her only shot, and she may not get even that. She's not even a good bet for number two; why would Obama assume all of her baggage? We don't yet know who won Super Tuesday. But in one real sense, Barack Obama has already won even more. A presidential nomination: it's not a bad thing to have in your pocket. Maybe that's why he's in such a good mood these days.
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Only milquetoasts like Vilsack and Bayh will run with Clinton if she's the nominee.
No one with a future will.
Because of Bill, the vp will be a in-name-only spot with the 'official' one regulated to some dark corner for 4 years while Bill takes over that slot unofficially.
I seriously doubt Obama would compromise his future and his rising star by agreeing to such a thankless role.
Vilsack and Bayh have no real future except for what they have done. Being a silent and ineffective vp is their only shot for something higher and so will be the good and obidient lapdogs.
I am not being mean to them or to the Clintons. It's just a fact.
That's why I find it pure fantasy about this so called teaming up of Clinton and Obama.
Obama is far too much of a star and a force to fullfill that fantasy and derail his future.
Listen, I don't mean to be insulting, but people have to wake up unless they want another Ralph Nader to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And, really, if you look what Obama has actually done, and stop being mesmerized by his siren tones, he will do nothing for the working class. If ever there was a wine and cheese liberal, and believe me, I know, being one myself, except I have taken the time to figure out what is going on, Obama is it, and he has shown no sign of intelligent analysis of any issue of importance to the nation. And he has shown signs of demagoguery, etc. but why go on, the siren the swoons and the sheep follow. I know, it's hard not to be insulting. Sorry.
selling him short, hey margolick?
Yeah, I don't think so. If Hillary should happen to pull this out, despite being attacked from both the left and the right (and their attendant Left Wing and Right Wing Smear Machines (although the left is pathetic, it is still having a time kicking the victim who just got mugged by the fascist bully)), and not the fringe either, and from the MSM 7x24 with only minor exceptions, I suspect Obama will be dismissed like yesterday's weather report as an overhyped hot air balloon that fizzled just as these forces of evil thought they could destroy the Clintons. And if Hillary should pull this out, I really don't think there would be any place for Obama, except possibly some cabinet post if she should happen to win the general in order to appease his generally well-meaning but ill-informed and fantasyland-based constituency.
Maybe Barack's in a good mood, but I'm not. The thought of Hillary and her DLC Bush enablers keeping their grip on the party for another 8 years is enough to send me fleeing with hair on fire. Maybe I'd check back in 2012 to vote for an actual Democrat, but, sheeesh, if this party can't recognize its best talent NOW, I'm not sure what use it is.
The problems with the idea that Obama would easily win the nomination at some future point so there's no reason to worry now are two-fold (at least).
On the one hand, if he's the idealist he seems to be (and I'm not offering any opinion on that for the sake of this discussion) he may have decided that it's either now never and he may not be interested later. He could well have other ideas to pursue, strange as that may seem to some people.
On the other, if he's not such an idealist (again you can decide that for yourself), after he hangs around Washington for a few more years, he may have nothing fresh and new to offer. He could just be sucked in by the power and the perks and the deal-making and be just like most of the others. It does seem that Washington does that to people, even many that go there with the purest of hearts and the best of intentions.
In either case, it could be a mistake to count on being able to just call Obama up whenever you're ready for him. It could be a case of speak now or forever hold your peace.
As an Obama supporter, it's posts like this that scare me. Hillary is the frontrunner and has always been the frontrunner. And Obama has said repeatedly that he will never run again. And, to tell you the truth, I believe him. If he loses, why would he run again after all this bullshit?
There is no way in hades that Senator Obama would ever entertain the idea of being a VP period and certainly not Mr. Clinton's VP...nope, I didn't stutter...
same inevitability aura clinton had about her a year ago....you are actually doing the reverse spelling his demise...i
IF Hill pulls off the nomination, which will be by sleaze such as stealing Michigan delegates and the party hack superdelegates, it will be mighty crowded for a VP with Bill hanging around. It wouldn't be second fiddle, it'd be third fiddle.
I do not want a third Clinton term. Won't vote for them.
It's funny to me that many years of being productive in the Senate and eight years of being vice president didn't seem to qualify Gore (in a large majority of voters eyes, at least) to be president, but being productive in the Senate and being First Lady for eight years just might.
Let us all hope that Clinton does not win the nomination and worse luck becomes the president. Her husband’s major legacy, as president, was to create an atmosphere where we ended up with a despot named Bush in the White House. One only shudders to think what we would end up with after her being in power. Nothing could harm Mr. Obama more than to serve as vice-president under a Hillary/Bill administration. To play second fiddle to that pair would destroy his only chance to eventually lead this country it the right direction. Here is hoping that Mr. Obama is elected president and the Clintons fade into obscurity like Dan Quayle.
Get me re-write!
"...assumi
Let's go with "...assumi
What is "tsouris"?
Don't you love it?
Most of us haven't even voted yet in a primary and "they" are already trying to crown Obama King...
Any time this kind of thing is tried it should be a clarion call to NOT!
And after hearing that debate and realizing that MoveOn.org has declared their lovefest for Obama...
I'm voting FOR Hillary!
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