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David Miliband

David Miliband

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Green China?

Posted: 04/ 1/11 09:40 AM ET

I spent three days in China the week before last and have only just caught my breath. It was a year since I had been and I came away with the overwhelming message that the Chinese system has turned the questions it was asking a year ago, about economy and society, into decisions that represent a decisive shift in its development model. This is what the leaders said at the recent Party Congress; it is what is in the Five Year Plan, the 12th, just published; and it is what I heard from foreign policy leaders, academics, and businesspeople. The phrasing was different -- new chapter, new phase -- but the meaning was serious. There is a lot to take in -- from the balance between domestic consumption and exports to intriguing hints about "political restructuring" to match "economic restructuring".

On the green agenda, this has substantial implications, for China and the world. When I first went to Beijing in 2008 Premier Wen was talking about climate change standing alongside terrorism as one of the two great challenges facing the world. At Copenhagen in 2009, the skeptics seemed to have the upper hand. Now there has been a rebalancing. I think the best way to see it is the following description: that the brown tap is still on, but the green tap is being turned on too.

The 12th Five Year Plan covers the middle period of a 15 year cycle from 2005 to 2020. The aspirations are clear -- under the theme of improving the quality of growth there is new priority to responding to climate change, strengthening conservation, developing the 'circular' (recyclable, sustainable) economy, promoting ecological protection, and getting better at disaster prevention and alleviation. This produces various key targets -- for example energy intensity and emissions per unit of GDP down 16 and 17 per cent respectively over the five year period.

The actual achievements against the 11th Five Year Plan have been monitored at the Climate Policy Initiative at Tsinghua University. Transport emissions are up; intensity is pretty flat. Manufacturing emissions are up; intensity is down. Agricultural emissions are up; intensity is down. Building emissions are up; intensity down. The significance of the sectoral breakdown becomes clear when you appreciate, for example, that the new Five Year Plan envisions 10 million people a year moving into the cities. So the decisions today about energy and transport get locked in for many years to come. And the pilots of low carbon living become absolutely crucial: not least as one of the pilot areas covers 45 million people (in Chongqing).

The Chinese motivation is at least threefold. Genuine concern about climate change as it affects for example water (I was told there had been a 10 per cent fall in Beijing rainfall in 50 years). Clear view of industrial benefits from the low carbon economy (although the phrase is not popular -- low carbon development much preferred). And a wider appreciation of what resource scarcity could mean for their economy and society. So opportunity and danger are leading to aspiration; and now the system has to deliver action.

The issue for the rest of us is whether in any scenario Chinese emissions -- in absolute terms -- can peak in the early 2020s, which is essential in most of the models for keeping the global rise in temperature below 2 degrees Celsius. It would be a brave man to bet on this. Part of the reason is that the Chinese don't see much sign of US emissions coming down, and their income per head is over ten times higher.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jeff Forsythe
05:46 PM on 04/04/2011
The brutal Chinese Communist Party is interested in only one thing which is its own survival. People who visit China have no idea about the real China. The Chinese Communist Party practices slavery, torture and even organ harvesting on its own people.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution Tuesday, Mar.16, 2010, urging the Chinese Communist Party to end its decade-long campaign against Falun Gong and expressing solidarity with victims of persecution in China.

House Resolution 605 recognizes, “the continued persecution of Falun Gong practitioners in China on the 11th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party campaign to suppress the Falun Gong spiritual movement and calling for an immediate end to the campaign to persecute, intimidate, imprison, and torture Falun Gong practitioners.” “The Falun Gong spiritual discipline is based on truthfulness, compassion, and tolerance,” said Ros-Lehtinen. “Yet these innocents are brutally targeted by the Chinese regime. The stark reality which this resolution addresses gives new meaning to the phrase 'Butchers of Beijing.’”
The Governments of the World are aware of these atrocities and many more but continue to do business as usual because of corporate greed.
04:14 AM on 04/04/2011
"Type "China water and air pollution" into your search engine. "

I did, 3.530.000 results. Then I typed in "USA water and air pollution". 26.100.000 results!

"The Chinese version of the E.P.A. has only 230 employees to monitor/re­gulate the polluting of 1.3 billion people and tens of thousands of corporatio­ns. (Oct. 2010 issue of Newsweek Magazine)."

Sounds like GOP's paradise.
01:11 AM on 04/04/2011
Green China Red China it doesn't really matter, anything China does that's good Westerners always find some excuse to attack to attack frankly most have never been to China the Liberal Media will always demonize it.
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b525
09:34 AM on 04/03/2011
China is not an eco-paradise, but one of the most heavily polluted nations on earth. The Chinese version of the E.P.A. has only 230 employees to monitor/regulate the polluting of 1.3 billion people and tens of thousands of corporations. (Oct. 2010 issue of Newsweek Magazine).

Much of China's ground, river, lake and coastal waters are HEAVILY polluted with agribusiness, factory and mining chemicals/heavy metals. The lack of democracy in China is preventing active citizen participation in cleaning up/reporting these toxins.

The world's manufacturers have fled to Authoritarian Communist China in recent years to avoid:

-paying taxes in their home countries
-to avoid minimum wage/labor laws in their home countires
-to avoid pollution/environmental laws in their home countries

The Chinese government is making these green changes out of NECCESSITY, they are now in environmental crisis mode and spending hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars to avoid mass poisoning of China's citizens. Expect cancer rates to soar there in the coming years.

If we in the U.S. allow the American E.P.A. to continue to be undermined/defunded, we to will find ourselves in crisis mode also, filtering all our water and wearing face masks while pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into cleaning up our polluted landscape.

Type "China water and air pollution" into your search engine.
12:55 PM on 04/02/2011
Other countries will simply have to stop looking at the US for a lead on green issues. American politicians don't have the brain power to deal with complex ideas, they spend most of their time raising funds for re-election, and the rest reminding ignorant votes that they are not alone. Other countries, and especially China, have educated, scientifically literate leaders who can understand complex issues, formulate plans and act on them.

So the rest of the world can move on to sustainable green energy and leave the US at the mercy of oil prices.
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Epilef2000
Cafe Con Leche Party
08:58 PM on 04/02/2011
I agree..and add that the American people are the ones who are taking the lead.

In many town, with good local government leadership, we have transformed my street in a matter of two years..from one that had multiple trash cans lined up on trash day..to one where two yellow recycling bins are in front of virtually everyone's house with a city-provided garbage can (an ordinance which only allows one medium sized city-provided garbage can). The recycling is not picked up by the city-rather a private business picks the recycle bins throughout the city, and in turn the company is allowed to keep the material for free--a win win situation. This is a small example, but it is a people's initiative
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abbienormal
What hump?
09:49 PM on 04/02/2011
Well said. #16. Sad that this is one of the things that will bring down our economy and we knew about it all along.
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Laurent Wagner
09:50 AM on 04/02/2011
It's time to replace coal with agricultur­­­e biomass as miscanthus­­­.

Miscanthus is a grass with C4-photosy­­­nthesis. Miscanthus is capable of producing up to 60 tons of biomass per hectare every year.

Illinois researcher­s predicted that if just 10 percent of Illinois land mass was devoted to Miscanthus­, it could provide 50 percent of Illinois electricit­y needs. Using Miscanthus for energy would not necessaril­y reduce energy costs in the short term, Illinois researcher­s said, but there would be significan­t savings in carbon dioxide production­.

http://news.illinois.edu/NEWS/05/0927miscanthus.html
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
04:11 PM on 04/02/2011
Only waste should be used for bio fuels. Waste land is allowable to.
05:35 PM on 04/02/2011
This might be a good short-term fix, but biofuels are still being burned and release emissions. 10% of an entire state being devoted to one grass is also a huge percentage - shouldn't much of this available land mass be spent on growing food?

A better solution might be to spend money on increasing the efficiency of solar and wind energies and moving the current fleet of vehicles into electric ones (thereby reducing the overall need to burn gas/coal/biomass). Not to mention improving conservation in the general public.
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Laurent Wagner
09:01 AM on 04/03/2011
- Illinois is the 25th smallest state but the fifth most populous.
That's why they speak about 10 percent of Illinois land mass.

- Using gasification (a process that converts carbonaceous materials into a synthesis gas), there's no smoke.

- Wind & solar are intermittent energy sources and today energy storage is too expensive.
In UK, output from turbines can fall to just four per cent of their maximum output in January - the coldest month of the year.
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Julio Melendez Sr
boricua51
08:33 AM on 04/02/2011
How about getting GM, FORD and Chrysler to team up with natural gas companies to start setting up Natural Gas stations across the country and converting cars and trucks to use gas and natural gas..... Brazil has been doing this for years.......
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abbienormal
What hump?
09:40 AM on 04/02/2011
As soon as we figure out how to extract natural gas without destroying our water.
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thole489
Obama 2012
07:59 PM on 04/02/2011
I was a supporter of the idea of transferring over to natural gas until I watched 'Gasland' and realized how destructive it really is to extract. F & F #492
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Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
01:42 PM on 04/02/2011
Funny thing is natural gas is the only renewable fossil fuel - just check out any landfill!

I drive a CNG Honda! It can be difficult short range and finding CNG stations is a pain however I fill up at home at a price of $0.88/gallon of gasoline equivalent!

It's funny my friends use to make fun of my traveling bomb! Now it is the preferred way for all of us to go to lunch!

What I like best and what prompted me to buy the car is I hate sending my money to people like Hugo Chavez - you know people who hate us!

Gives me a moment of satisfaction every time I drive by a gasoline station!
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Fireslayer
04:10 AM on 04/02/2011
Having recently been on a non-government directed drive through rural North China I can tell you that nearly every house I saw had a solar water heater and the majority a solar panel and there is a real effort being made to take rural China completely off the electrical grid.

Furthermore, the Chinese are committed to a goal of 50 mpg for passenger cars and there is a vast resource allocation from their command economy for greening the countryside and soon the cities.

The US needs a similar effort and fast.
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theBooHooBand
treat others as you want to be treated
03:49 AM on 04/02/2011
Great!
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rodjard
I Update my brain frequently
03:47 AM on 04/02/2011
First lets assume that in order to have a productive economy,
we must have full employment. That employment must be
productive with the result being progress toward more and better
products and services to promote the improved wellbeing of all the
people.

True leadership needs to promote and foster these goals
as it's priorities. This is a cycle that cannot be in fits and starts
of leadership failurs and infighting towards those ends.

Throughout history mankind has been plagued with unforseen
natural disasters, These had to be dealt with by readjusting to
new realities to recover and go forward.

Mankind has had to deal also with constant conflict between
different groups of leaders not for progress of humanity, but for the
sake of their own vanity. All have had to suffer for it.

There is enough to deal with, without all these disasters of our
own making. True leadership is seriously needed to reach
reach consensus on all isues for all our sake. WE do not have it.
Will we ever?
02:06 AM on 04/02/2011
Look people. You formerly rich countries (US, EU, Japan) are now broke and unlikely to recover your sovereign wealth any time soon. That means no growth in whatever you are spending money on these days. You have already cut expenditures wherever you can and its cutting pretty close to the bone. That also means that imports from China will pretty much remain at current levels. Wen Jiabao has psychologically prepared Chinese industries for lower production and lower revenues. Its also an opportunity to close down inefficient polluting facilities and replace them with more modern more efficient facilities. Yet this lower expectation is still 7% annual GDP growth, double the best rate anyone else can boast of. That rate is a tall order. When you look around green energy technologies offer the best opportunities for new growth. The field is wide open. The first into it reaps the best profits. While the rest are still arguing whether you should enter the field China will surge ahead and acquire a lead that will be hard for others to close. And you will forego the opportunities to create well paid skilled employment you so badly need to restore your economy.
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jc budmo
ifamericansknew.org
05:49 AM on 04/02/2011
Aside from the 'formally rich' snipe , I agree with what you've said. Just to get it into perspective though, virtually everything, and I mean EVERYTHING in China is copied from the very countries you name. Take away China's wage advantage and China will be a weak competitor, and that day too will arrive.
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abbienormal
What hump?
09:43 AM on 04/02/2011
Your mistake is assuming that China is a static country when in fact their university system is growing and developing a good reputation. This will generate the research and development that the US used to fund with pride and has now been thrown to the wayside.
09:51 AM on 04/02/2011
Historically, that's been the usual development path - Germany, Japan, US were famous copiers before they became the copied.

Check your history of inventions and patents - The US Govt once encouraged the patenting of foreign inventions domestically, and many German/Japanese giants today got their start from copying - Siemens, Sony to name a few.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
04:18 PM on 04/02/2011
The countries are not broke, they have been robbed by the banksters and the tax skipping multinationals slavers. Sweden, is actually surging ahead of the USA, because they seized the bankster casinos 5 years ago. There is more wealth and productivity per person in the world today, than ever in history. Tax the fat cats, seize the bankster casinos, end the war machine, and invest, spend like never before on green energy, infrastructure and free public education and safety net.
12:21 AM on 04/02/2011
Red, yellow, green? Can't keep track of the color of that country.
oilfield
large employer per obamacare
12:05 AM on 04/02/2011
chinas energy per dollar of gdp is down because their labor went from .50 an hour to 2.00 an hour for factory workers.......so they have to sell their products for more...not to mention the raw materials also went up.....i went to china for 2 weeks and was relieved to inhale the cab smoke at lax by the passenger arrival gates......it was a breath of fresh air comparatively....
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macmanchgo
"You don't need a weatherman...."
09:49 PM on 04/01/2011
Red China, the boogyman, the Commies, the enemy, the Domino Effect, the Communist Takeover of the world. Every American kid in the 50's was taught to hate and fear Communism, when they went to Viet Nam they were there for that reason, to stop COMMUNISM. Now its ok to send all our jobs there and send our CEOs there to watch this miracle of economic growth, and yet its also ok to call Obama a Commie as if its a bad thing. What is a poor American boy supposed to think now? Those same people that sent our brothers and sisters to war in the name of Freedom are now getting rich off the Commies. It was all a lie, and no one except the poor working class suckers pay the ultimate price.
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Protocolor
空耳モード
10:44 PM on 04/01/2011
Yep it was all a lie... ALL of it. Even the part about how socialism is bad and is the opposite of "Freedom". Whole generations of Americans programmed with unthinking knee-jerk anti-socialist reactions, and now it starts to dawn on some that it was all a lie and the boogieman was a fabrication.

It is useful to examine who benefited from the decades of constant anti-socialist propaganda: Wall Street. The rich. Corporations. Big investors. Who suffered? Unions. Minorities. Women. Working people. The 'Middle Class'.

When did America last experience real economic growth that wasn't just an illusion generated by the frantic gambling of Wall Street, ludicrous real estate speculation, or silly DotCom bubbles? 1973?

You're right: It was all a lie.
It is time to look beyond that lie and find a course for America and the world that doesn't end in ruin.
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McCauley
12:26 AM on 04/02/2011
And it is the big lie today. Banksters take home absurd "earnings" while the unemployed run out of benefits. Neither political party is truly committed to working people.
02:50 PM on 04/03/2011
well said well said
I would f/f if I knew how
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WYHKTai-Tai
Wyoming, Hong Kong, Tai-Tai
07:36 PM on 04/01/2011
I wonder if this has anything to do with the 'ghost cities' they are building. Whole cities with homes, govt. bldgs. shopping malls, civic centers, parks.....all before one single soul moves in.
Are they starting from scratch so they can put in a completely different type of 'green' grid and power supply?
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AdamWest1313
Hardcore Agnostic
09:45 PM on 04/01/2011
Would be an interesting idea
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Protocolor
空耳モード
09:55 PM on 04/01/2011
This is partially the case, but it is also an effort to take pressure off of existing cities that are being overwhelmed by the influx of migrants from the countryside. If you look at a map of the country, you'll note that China only has a few dozen big cities, but these cities are gargantuan and growing at an unsustainable rate as people from rural areas move to them in search of opportunity. In an effort to cut across that trend, China's government is indeed building cities from scratch where nothing existed before. People in the West can get a chuckle out of comments about the low occupancy of these cities while they are under construction, thus the silly 'ghost city' moniker that big business media likes to attach to the projects, but since the Chinese government doesn't work on a pay-as-you-go sort of paradigm, like big real estate developers do in the West, it doesn't matter if it takes a decade or so for the new infrastructure to become fully utilized.

Yeah, the Chinese are planning on a scale so huge that few people in the West can even wrap their heads around it.
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abbienormal
What hump?
09:45 AM on 04/02/2011
Yup.
10:26 PM on 04/03/2011
Here's a fairly decent article describing China's housing problems.

China attempts to deflate its unstable property bubble
China is to spend $200bn on low-cost homes as part of a series of measures to slow the rapidly rising prices of urban houses
• Tania Branigan in Beijing
• guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 9 March 2011 19.24 GMT
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/09/china-deflate-property-bubble