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David Moore

Entries by David Moore

A Red Herring

(0) Comments | Posted January 6, 2010 | 11:15 AM

Mark Blumenthal is right to argue in his recent National...

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Those Bobblehead Polls on Health Care

(12) Comments | Posted September 23, 2009 | 12:30 PM

A recent series of polls brings to mind a bobblehead doll, whose head wags from side to side and from front to back in a random fashion. That disconnected movement seems to be a visual representation of what the polls have been saying about the general public and its views...

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Public Opinion and Health Care: Fearmongering on the Right

(60) Comments | Posted September 2, 2009 | 5:29 PM

Recently, New York Times columnist David Brooks has echoed the chorus of right wing noisemakers, who claim that the public is firmly opposed to the healthcare reform efforts of President Obama and the Democrats in Congress, and that if the Democrats persist in trying to pass such legislation, they...

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Likely Voters and Mid-Term Elections, Part II (The 1934 Mid-Term Election)

(0) Comments | Posted August 21, 2009 | 2:07 AM

In my earlier post (Part I) on this subject, I suggested it would be a political miracle...

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Likely Voters and Mid-Term Elections, Part I

(0) Comments | Posted August 18, 2009 | 6:42 PM

It would be a political miracle if the Democrats did not lose seats in the 2010 Congressional elections, yet the polls so far suggest that scenario is doubtful at best. I think it's because most polls are providing a rosier picture for the Democrats by reporting voting intentions of the...
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Five Reasons Why The Iranian Pre-Election Poll Can't Be Trusted

(2) Comments | Posted June 19, 2009 | 5:00 PM

Over the past several days, according to the New York Times and other news sources, millions of protesters in Iran have taken to the streets to express their opposition to the official results of last week's disputed presidential election.

Earlier this week, however, the Washington Post published

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Not Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Important Lessons from a SurveyUSA Experiment

(0) Comments | Posted May 4, 2009 | 12:10 PM

In a recent conversation with Jay Leve, founder and head of SurveyUSA, I was alerted to a split sample telephone survey experiment he conducted last October in the San Francisco Bay Area. It was on the subject of the...

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Dispatches: Trusting What People Say in Polls

(0) Comments | Posted February 19, 2009 | 2:51 PM

This post is part of's week-long series on Stan Greenberg's new book, Dispatches from the War Room.



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"Reaction" Polling

(0) Comments | Posted February 5, 2009 | 11:13 AM

In his post on "Hired Gun" Polling, Mark Blumenthal suggests the need for pollsters to "distinguish between questions that measure pre-existing opinions and those that measure reactions."


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"Manipulating" Public Opinion

(0) Comments | Posted January 30, 2009 | 1:09 PM

My colleague, Mark Blumenthal, has recently posted his reaction to an earlier post of mine, in which I suggested

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George Bishop's and David Moore's 2009 Top Ten "Dubious Polling" Awards

(0) Comments | Posted January 29, 2009 | 10:39 AM

My colleague at the University of Cincinnati, George Bishop, and I have launched what we expect to be an annual listing of the Top Ten "Dubious Polling" reports for the previous year. Posted on

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Why Pollsters Manipulate Public Opinion

(0) Comments | Posted January 23, 2009 | 12:10 PM

Two recent polls, one by Gallup and the other by CNN, illustrate how easy it is for pollsters to manipulate public opinion into something different from what it really is.

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The Fluctuating Convergence Mystery

(0) Comments | Posted December 8, 2008 | 3:58 PM

The "convergence mystery" gets even more mysterious.


In Survey Practice, I initially...

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Poll Performances: Crazy October

(0) Comments | Posted December 1, 2008 | 2:17 PM

The final presidential contest predictions of the major media polls all came pretty close to the actual results, predicting Obama to win by anywhere from 5 to 11 percentage points (he actually won by 6.7 points).

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Exit Polls and the Undecided Voters

(0) Comments | Posted November 7, 2008 | 8:36 AM

The 2008 exit polls suggest that most the major media pollsters missed an important part of the presidential campaign, as they either failed to measure or mostly ignored the large undecided group of voters just after the major party conventions...

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Pew's Andrew Kohut Mischaracterizes Own Data

(0) Comments | Posted November 3, 2008 | 2:45 PM

On "All Things Considered" Sunday night, Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, reported the latest results of his organization's poll, showing Obama with...

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Undersized Undecideds

(0) Comments | Posted October 31, 2008 | 1:45 PM

Two days ago, Nick Panagakis reopened our debate about the "true" size of the undecided voters in his post on, entitled Supersized Undecideds. Oddly, his post tends...

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Different Polls, Different Trends

(0) Comments | Posted October 14, 2008 | 4:56 PM

As the discussion of Charles Franklin's column on house effects suggests, most people believe that "who's right" in their poll results these days...

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What the Bailout Polls Really Tell Us

(0) Comments | Posted September 26, 2008 | 5:57 PM

Three polls, all at the same time, give three wildly contradictory pictures of the American public. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll says the public opposes taxpayer bailout of Wall Street by 55 percent to 31 percent, a result cited on CNN by David Gergen the night the poll was...

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Gallup Daily - The Worst Thing in 10 Years?

(0) Comments | Posted August 30, 2008 | 1:04 AM

In Mark Blumenthal's post on how David Plouffe is polling for Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee's communications director Dan Pfeiffer is quoted as saying that "the Gallup Daily is the worst thing that's happened to journalism in...

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