Hillary Clinton holds not only a commanding 19-point lead over Donald Trump in Illinois according to a new poll, but also she has grabbed a solid lead over the reality TV star in a suburban DuPage battleground.
An October 13, 2016 poll conducted by Illinois Public Opinion Strategies (IPOS) of 664 likely Illinois voters finds that Clinton has a 50.0%-31.5% statewide edge over Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson is taking 5.8% of the vote and Green Jill Stein is eking out 1.1%. 11.6% are undecided.
In 2012, when President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 57.6%-40.7% in Illinois, Johnson, running on the Libertarian ticket then too, snagged only 1.1% and Stein, 0.6%.
The new automated poll compares to a July 26 IPOS statewide survey of 824 likely voters that found that Clinton led Trump 49.2%-35.6%. Johnson took 4.3% and Stein had 1.6%. 9.3% were undecided. The survey had a +/- 3.5% margin of error.
Clinton has merely solidified her lead statewide.
But the former first lady has also established a firm advantage over Trump in the solidly Republican-held House district of appointed State Rep. David Olsen (R-Downers Grove), who earlier in the summer succeeded ex-State Rep. Ron Sandack (R-Downers Grove), taking an eight-point lead in this DuPage County battleground. An October 12 IPOS poll of 378 likely voters found Clinton edging Trump 44%-36%. In 2014, Bruce Rauner beat Governor Pat Quinn in this district 60.3% to 37.4%.
Olsen faces Democrat and Downers Grove Village Commissioner Greg Hose on November 8.
While Trump is getting thumped statewide by Clinton and in Olsen's GOP district, Trump's cratering candidacy has - so far - avoided crushing Republican comptroller Leslie Munger's bid to win a full, four-year term against Democratic challenger and Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza.
The October 13 survey shows that Munger is outperforming Trump statewide and leading Mendoza 41%-39%. Libertarian Claire Ball is taking only 2.2% and Green Tim Curtin, 2.0%. 15.6% of voters are undecided.
Munger, who was appointed to her job in 2015 by Governor Bruce Rauner after incumbent Judy Baar Topinka died, is also outperforming Trump in Olsen's House district. In the October 12 poll, Munger is decisively beating Mendoza - like a Republican should in a Republican district - 50.4% to 28.9%. Johnson is taking 6.8% and Stein, 1.6%.
While Trump may be getting his clock cleaned and reassembled by Clinton statewide and in Olsen's suburban DuPage district, he is having little discernible, negative impact on Munger's down ballot comptroller contest. This polling phenomenon is also being played out around the country regarding down ticket fights. However, if Trump has a demoralizing impact on GOP voters and turnout sours, then the bottom could indeed fall out for Munger and all sorts of down ballot GOP candidates here - and everywhere.
Stay tuned.
davidormsby@davidormsby.com
David is president of Illinois Public Opinion Strategies, Inc.