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David Ropeik

David Ropeik

Posted: August 13, 2010 11:42 AM

Greenpeace claims that some of the forest fires in Russia are burning in areas contaminated in 1986 with radioactivity from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster. Should people in that region be alarmed? It depends on lots of details -- how much radioactive material was taken up by the trees and bushes that are burning, the energy and radiological stability of those particles, the dose of particles people would be actually be exposed to after dilution in the atmosphere -- but probably not. As is well-noted in a Dot Earth blog by Andy Revkin, Chernobyl, Fires and Radiation .

But will we sound the alarm? Oh, you bet. and not just in Russia. Radiation!!!!!! AAAIIIGGH!!! Chernobyl!!!! AAAAIIIGGGHH! What's that you say? The details matter? Yeah, right. Whatever. CHERNOBYL!!!! RADIATION!!!!! ALERT! ALERT! ALERT!

A sample of headlines:
Radioactive smoke? Russia wildfires rage near Chernobyl worries the Christian Science Monitor.
Fears Russian wildfires could drive radioactive Chernobyl waste towards Moscow frets The Guardian
Russian wildfires raise Chernobyl radiation fears reports the Associated Press.

Don't blame Greenpeace for this instinctive reaction to risk. And don't blame the press. Blame our instincts. YOUR instincts. Greenpeace and the news media only sound the alarm when they know we're ready to listen. And because of one critical aspect of the instinctive way human risk perception works, we are instantly ready to hear about and fear certain dangers, and the details be damned.

Stigma, is what the academics call this effect. Certain products or processes or companies or places become so identified as dangerous that anything to do with them sets off alarms in our risk response system, and the facts that follow don't matter. In a 1986 study of public opinion in Phoenix toward the proposed Yucca Mountain Nevada nuclear waste disposal site, subjects were asked to say the first thing that came to mind when they heard "underground nuclear waste storage." The top five categories were Dangerous (including words like "danger," "hazardous," "toxic," "harmful," "disaster"), Death ("sickness," "death," "dying," "destruction") Negative ("wrong," "bad," "terrible," "horrible"), Pollution ("contamination," "spills," "leakage"), and War ("bombs," "nuclear war," "holocaust.") You think the details mattered -- of the nuclear physics of the waste, or the impregnability of the waste containers, or the geologic stability of the disposal site? Nope. Radiation = Danger. End of story.

Chemicals. Offshore drilling. Genetically modified food. They have all been stigmatized, and automatically initiate fear in a risk perception system set on a hair wire trigger to detect anything that might even hint at danger. These are the learned versions of things we're probably born afraid of, like snakes or spiders or the dark, things that set off instinctive fears. We don't have to think about those things. We KNOW they're dangerous.

Only, that's as untrue of radiation and genetically modified food as it is of snakes and spiders. The details do matter. They matter if we want to make the healthiest choices for ourselves and our families. And they really matter if we want to make wise policy choices for society. What kind of energy mix do we end up with when we automatically assume radiation = danger? We end up with policy that favors electricity generation by fossil fuels, the pollution from which is FAR more dangerous (fine particles alone kill tens of thousands of people a year, to say nothing of what CO2 is doing to the climate of the earth) than even the worst industrial releases of nuclear radiation (the World Health Organization estimates the lifetime cancer death toll from Chernobyl will be about 4,000.)

But to get to the details about a risk, and judge it wisely, we have to get past the effect of stigma and the predominantly instinctive, emotional, affective way we very quickly asses whether we might be in danger, giving less careful consideration to the facts (or none at all). Our risk perception system has done a fabulous job getting the species this far, but with its emphasis more on how the facts feel than what the facts actually say, it's not the brightest bulb for illuminating the complex risks and tradeoffs of our modern technological/information age.

In that sense, the alarms being sounded about forest fires in areas contaminated by Chernobyl fall-out are actually great, even though they play on our stigmatized fears of anything nuclear. Our fear of that risk may be overblown, but the dangers of how we go about perceiving and responding to risk in the first place are quite real. We can be too afraid of some things, and not afraid enough of others, and while our perceptions might feel safe, they could end up making things worse. Our rationally reasoning minds have figured this out. Now we have to hope our cognitive firepower can use the facts about how we perceive and respond to risk, so we can do a better job of it.

 
 
 

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10:09 PM on 08/15/2010
you just watched BP murder the gulf to save a buck,

and you still don't get it....

nuke power has dumped waste all over the planet, doubling the background radiation level.

but you think is safe....

pathetic.

Save money, cut the deficit, employ everyone, cut energy dependence:

Immediately order energy retrofits for all gov buildings.

Rooftop PV Solar, Offshore wind, and Waste Bio char, can supply the worlds energy and fuel needs: cleanly, safely, Forever, within 12 years and cheaper in the long run 2-6 cents now, and 26$ per barrel bio oils.

http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm
about 1$ per Wp solar panels, new.

install solar plants for about $1.30 per watt, compared with an industry average of about $1.75, according to Hardy." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=a7K1FZoNgJ0w

Wind: “between two and six cents today, depending on location.12 Wind power approaches competitiveness with conventional generation at this price point. “

http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/wind%20issue%20brief_FINAL.pdf

http://www.css.cornell.edu/faculty/lehmann/publ/BiofBioproBioref%203,%20547-562,%202009%20Laird.pdf

26$ per barrel bio oil from waste bio char.
12:33 AM on 08/16/2010
"nuke power has dumped waste all over the planet, doubling the background radiation level."

Now that is a hugely funny one.

Research has an imagination like no other thats where he get his facts.

His solar and wind per kwh costs are not real. He just makes them up.

Real wind cost.

Cape Wind is 24 cents a kwh going to 34 over 15 years - approved tariff

Arcadia Solar just built largest solar plant in the US is 50 cents a kwh at Florida Powers Rate of Return on Investment.

Biofuels from waste biomass producing waste biochar can produce almost no energy after the waste stream is properly processed for compost and recyclables. Whats left releases Dioxins and Furons when burned

His wind study was from 2003 and used many assumptions which turned out to be invalid. The world has moved on.
01:57 PM on 08/16/2010
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=nuclear%20waste%20dumping%20worldwide&hl=en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl 

waste dumps all over the world. 

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?p=8899147 
great world polutionmapstoo.
http://maps.grida.no/region/global/page/46 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4312553.stm Somali nuke waste dumping

. "Over 100 of these sites are so contaminated that we don't know how to clean them up," he said. "We have no choice but to rely on fallible human institutions to manage them." 
http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1099 

The global volume of spent fuel was 220,000 tonnes in the year 2000, and is growing by approximately 10,000 tonnes annually... nuclear industry and governments have failed to come up with a feasible and sustainable solutio 
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/nuclear/waste/?tab=0 

The dying off of the numerically small peoples of the Russian north, 
http://www.energypublisher.com/article.asp?id=31593 

that Russia (the former Soviet Union) has been dumping highly
radioactive materials in the Ar
http://www1.american.edu/TED/arctic.htm

Seth prefers to pay more for his solar, I list the best deals around.
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PoloniumMan
"It worked." J. Robert Oppenheimer
07:56 AM on 08/16/2010
"nuke power has dumped waste all over the planet, doubling the background radiation level."

After saying something so wrong as this, is there really any reason anyone should believe anything else in your comment? I'm trying to help you here. If you want to build a reasonable argument for halting new nuclear construction and decommissioning existing ones, you should start by eliminating grossly inaccurate statements such as the one above. Try taking some time off from posting to HuffPo and go read "Environmental Radioactivity from Natural, Industrial & Military Sources, Fourth Edition," by Merrill Eisenbud.
01:58 PM on 08/16/2010
http://tribes.tribe.net/367ae640-2b3a-4c07-ad59-85258c3d7ddc/thread/76a2d543-5eb6-43b4-9b93-d8b1f5c80c08 ny times rad back doubled.

anything else to say?
08:23 PM on 08/16/2010
show me the link to the graph of background radiation away from all sources.

I've done the math, I have the old nuke books that list the background radiation it is no double what was used in the 1950's.

Please don't bs us with the "radiation the average person is exposed to" that's not the same thing.
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09:32 PM on 08/14/2010
One of my friends sent me a link to some photos of the situation.

http://englishrussia.com/index.php/2010/08/13/russia-is-still-on-fire/
01:23 PM on 08/14/2010
The stigma about nuclear risks is also greatly influenced by mistrust of official science particularly in the U.S. and Russia -- with good reason. There is a well documented history of scientific supression and deception about radiation dangers.

* Respected scientistys were routinely sacked for reporing adverse harm.
* Radioactive fallout from open air nuclear testing in the U.S. was found in 1992 by the National Cancer Institute to be quite significant -- posing risks to thousands of children who drank contaminated milk. However, the NCI supressed this study for five years and was forced to admit it do so under oath before the U,S. Congress in 1998. The list goes on.

The Chernobyl catastrophe required nearly a million emergency responders and cleanup workers. A 1000 sq kilometer zone near the reactor remains uninhabitable. The World Health Organization ultimately depended on data furnished by the Russian government, which makes its findings suspect. Russia is hardly known as being forthcoming about this accident, or the other nuclear disasters that took place in Kazakstan and the Urals. You might recall that Russia tried to hide the Chernobyl disater from its people and the rest of the world.

In short, people'e response to terms such as "nuclear" and "radiation" are not just due to irrattional fears but also to the self-inflicted destruction of scientific credibility.
04:36 PM on 08/14/2010
Contrary to this fear-mongering, there is a well-documented history of the suppression of truth about radiation, and the fact that low-level radiation is beneficial for health. For an assessment of the Chernobyl effects by an expert in radiation, read Zbigniew Jaworowski's "The Real Chernobyl Folly."
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/2006_articles/spring%202006/Chernobyl_Folly.pdf

Also of interest is Jaworowski's article on the recent Belarus decision to repopulate the
Chernobyl exclusion area:
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2010/Chernobyl_repopulation.pdf
11:15 PM on 08/16/2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster_effects#Controversy_over_human_health_effects

trillion dollar nuke industry trying to white wash Chernobyl, but still multiple studies show over a million excess deaths.

Nuclear power and weapons cause the death of 65M people.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nuclear-weapons-and-pollution-linked-to-65-million-deaths-609008.html

nukes are a multi billion dollar business.

CANDU Inc is 800M$ in debt, only the government keeps it going.

They will say anything to convince people nukes are safe, and they could care less about some people dying in Chernobyl to do that.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Mann
Nuclear Educator
10:06 AM on 08/14/2010
Nuclear energy is inherently scary, the world was introduced to nuclear energy through atomic bombs, if we were introduced to gasoline through napalm we would be reluctant to ride in a vehicle using gas as a fuel. Many people do not realize they are exposed to radiation every minute of every day.
http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/402-k-07-006.pdf
You can calculate you approximate dose with this:
http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/understand/calculate.html
It is very easy to monitor and control your "dose" with time distance and shielding, be informed not scared. Know nukes!
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aligatorhardt
02:53 AM on 08/14/2010
No need for any irrational fears, just check the independent reports of nuclear power safety records.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civilian_nuclear_accidents Check bottom of page for more info.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Mann
Nuclear Educator
09:51 AM on 08/14/2010
That is correct, nuclear power is one of the safest industries in the country according to OSHA, one of the cleanest industries according to the EPA. Check these lists for comparison:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_industrial_disasters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_disasters_by_death_toll#Industrial_accidents
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/07/summarizing-deaths-per-twh.html
02:17 PM on 08/14/2010
Now harm no injury from a single one.

You know its funny how the really ghoulish renewable types never seem to acknowlegde the 3 million folks that die from coal pollution every year they can defer the coal to nuclear conversion. It's like these folks are a reasonable sacrifice on the road to the perfect future powered by their visions of pink windmills and warm sunbeams gleaming on ebony solar panels.
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aligatorhardt
04:03 PM on 08/14/2010
My post contains references of historic fact. The fact is that people do and have died as well as been injured by unnecessary radioactivity, Large areas of land have been abandoned because of radioactivity. I do not try to tell people to avoid information, like you are doing, nor do I deny the obvious. The attempt to avoid reasonable questions by pointing out the risks of coal is just a technique of hiding behind someone else' problem. I have not recommended coal power at any time, and I will not later. I recommend solar, wind, bio-fuel, hydrogen, fuel cells, tidal flow power and geothermal. Additional methods are in development and all are much less risky than nuclear, which I consider to be the worse technology ever invented by mankind.
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PoloniumMan
"It worked." J. Robert Oppenheimer
11:15 PM on 08/13/2010
"Greenpeace claims that some of the forest fires in Russia are burning in areas contaminated in 1986 with radiation from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster. "

The sentence should have been written as, "...contaminated in 1986 with radioactivity from Chernobyl..." Material is radioactive and it emits radiation. The public does not need to fear radiation from a nuclear power plant because its well shielded by steel and concrete plus there's several kilometers of atmosphere, however any release of radioactivity should be of concern and must be well monitored.
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David Ropeik
09:24 AM on 08/16/2010
Well-observed. Change submitted. Thanks. (The shielding won't reassure those afraid for affective reasons, and the semantics, while important, aren't going to change that.) David
05:32 PM on 08/13/2010
It was my understanding the Russians started phytoremediation shortly after the disaster using hemp along with other plants. Hemp can pull metal metals out of the soil. Then harvest the plant matter for methanol production. This technology if followed should have minimize the danger.
02:34 PM on 08/13/2010
Looks like they needed to spend more money on forestry and management. It is sad to see this.