The Importance of Black Voters, and the Stupidity of Ignoring Them

Jim Clyburn makes a very good point in the Washington Post today:

"We keep talking as if it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter that Obama gets 92 percent of the black vote, because since he only got 35 percent of the white vote, he's in trouble," Clyburn said. "Well, Hillary Clinton only got 8 percent of the black vote. . . . It's almost saying black people don't matter. The only thing that matters is how white people respond. And that's what bothered me. I think I matter."

Clyburn is, unfortunately, spot on - and there's two reasons why the phenomenon he describes is such a problem.

First and foremost is the idea that black voters are, indeed, treated as less important than white voters. I would even take it a step further: black voters are not only considered unimportant, but are considered only as black voters and nothing else - a very subtly derogatory and dehumanizing characterization in that it implies African Americans are just one dimensional simpletons, rather than multi-dimensional humans.

For instance, though much of the African-American community is economically in the "working class," pundits and reporters use economic and other demographic distinctions only to describe white voters, while black voters are just "black voters" - as if the only issue they vote on is race. Chris Matthews gave us the best example of this when he publicly claimed there's some sort of difference between "regular people" and black people.

Of course, you might counter that in a general election, black voters have constituted about 12 percent of the total vote, while white voters have constituted about 79 percent of the total vote, and therefore when comparing demographic subsets, the black vote is less mathematically important than the white vote. Except, even that is a flawed way of looking at the electoral map. As Clyburn implies, if Democrats nominate a candidate like Clinton who is doing so poorly among black voters, there could be huge general election problems in a number of key swing states - problems that could create a general-election Race Chasm for the Democratic nominee.

Recall the Race Chasm graph that I published in In These Times a few weeks back. It shows how Hillary Clinton has been winning states whose populations are above 7 percent and below 17 percent black. If Democrats nominate a candidate who isn't well supported by the black community, and that community ends up not turning out to vote in the general election in strong numbers, those states in the Race Chasm like New Jersey and Pennsylvania could flip to the Republicans, and other states in the Race Chasm like Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Virginia could remain in the Republican column (NOTE: I'm in no way saying that Clinton cannot eventually rebuild her support among black voters in a general election, just like I don't believe Obama cannot strengthen his white support in a general election - all I'm saying is that Clinton's current weakness among black voters is at least as important a factor in this election as Obama's current weakness among some white demographics).

Put another way, the black vote - though only 12 percent of the total popular vote - can make the key difference in the key swing states, meaning Clyburn is absolutely right: It is not only subtly racist to generally downplay the importance of the black vote, but it is also mathematically absurd, because the black vote will likely be a decisive factor in the general election.

Join the book club for David Sirota's upcoming book, The Uprising, due out on 5/27.

Comments

[jcwtts1]

At least one justice will retire maybe two. If the dems hold the white house Roe is safe, if the dems hold the white house and a larger majority of the Senate (possible with Obama not possible with Hillary) Roe will be safe further down the appellate and federal line, if the GOP wins then guess what, Roe is dead. One more justice and the power shifts irrevocably. Roe is dead, the federal judiciary becomes hyper conservative, and white women (the largest beneficiaries of Affirmative Action by the way) lose several issues they actually vote on. So, the chances of white women staying home or voting for McCain is dramatically lower than the chance of blacks, who if the nomination is stolen from Obama, will feel that there is really no difference between the Dems and the GOP, both parties screw over black people. Blacks will not vote. The Dems lose states they are counting on winning and even if Hillary pulls off a magical victory what we have is another clinton costing the dems the the senate, the house and the ability to actually govern.

J

[HansUnfeit]

Agreed. We should not ignore the hispanic, American Indian, Chinese and Caucasian vote either!

[Nobuks]

Very valid point. Like other countries around the globe, there isn't too many places left where whites hold the majority, population wise. The simple fact is that what used to work in the past, (appealing to white voters by using minorities as a wedge issue), will no longer work. Policies now have to take into account all races. We all share the pain, we all share the joys. Into the garbage bin of history those who refuse to see otherwise.

[CrissieP]

Mr. Sirota, as an African-American, Ivy-league educated, female, Dunkin' Donuts sippin' (don't like Starbucks coffee), suburban-living, soccer mom (I'll stop here) who has African-American friends and relatives who are male and female, blue collar and white collar, city and suburban, poor and affluent, etc., etc. your article speaks to the marginalization of black voters - and you do it in a way that fully articulates my feelings. Yes, sometimes I get bitter about it. But rather than disengage from the political process, I continue to do my patriotic duty by being an informed citizen, participating in local government, and going to the polls for every election. It is not always easy to support institutions that don't seem to want to support you - but I do it anyway because I believe that our model is a good one - even if the people who are supposed to execute it are flawed .

[PaulC37943]

I'd love to see someone ask Senator Clinton why her campaign believes the African-American vote is unimportant and watch her try to dismiss the question with a cackle, like she did when somebody asked her about Bill's $800,000 fee from the Colombians and the $5 million loaned to the campaign. Or maybe she dismisses it as not being pertinent like when somebody asked her when she last went to church or fired a gun.

[dm92]

For example, NJ white voters in 2004 voted for George Bush - it was black voters and some immigrants turned Americans who put Kerry over the top. The democrats would not have ANY chance of winning a national election without the key, dedicated and loyal black constituency in the key swing states - perhaps that might change with a candidate who can put new western states into play, but that candidate is not Clinton. Why we democrats are subjected to so much consternation over these industrial state, rural, blue collar white voters (Clinton's bread and butter right now) who have consistently crossed over and broken democratic hearts is beyond me. We need to try to get as many of those votes as we can without selling our souls and twisting ourselves into pretzels and move on - they are not dependable democrats.

[rgersmrk]

Bill Clinton would have never been President without the African American vote. He's acknowledged that several times in the past. I think the new/young voter demographic is being marginalized as well. Without the new/young voters there wouldn't have been near the turnout for the democratic primary this year.

[Benton]

Bill Clinton would have never been Governor or dog catcher without massive support from blacks.

[rgersmrk]

Excellent point. I wonder if he still remembers that.

[chefrasta]

Thank you Thank You .White working class democrats you need us as much as we need you.

[dyas]

Bill Clinton got 35% of the white male vote. So did Dukakis. Neither were black (duh).

I'd say Obama is doing great in that sector.

No democrat could get elected without the black vote, or get enough money to win without the affluent vote. I'd say Clinton is screwed in those sectors.

[uheardme]

So that explains why she is BROKE and BEHIND. I knew there was an explanation for this.