MLB Draft Preview - Part I

Over the last few years, the Major League Baseball First Year Player Draft (or the Rule 4 draft, if you will) has stepped out of obscurity and into the spotlight. In 2007, ESPN cut the cord on the closed-door conference call that used to make up the Amateur Draft as they televised it for the first time. This year, the draft has taken another giant leap forward as it moves into prime time on the MLB Network.

While it lacks the glamor and the luster of drafts of the other major sports, for baseball die-hards, draft day can be one of the most exciting days of the year. With the shifting economic climate and teams valuing homegrown talent over high-priced free agents, draft picks are carrying more importance than ever. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays have made the most out of their picks and have proven that a few good drafts can be the difference between sitting in the cellar and thriving in the playoffs. However, having high draft picks year after year does not always lead to a stocked farm system and a competitive team. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With that let's begin part one of our three-part MLB Amateur Draft Preview, starting with picks 1-10.

* Denotes a compensation pick.

1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

The Buzz: Considered by many to be the best prospect in the draft's history, Strasburg boasts a fastball that sits at 98mph, and has been clocked as high as 102 on the gun. He already has two strong secondary offerings (a curveball and a slider) and is fresh off a no-hitter of Air Force in his final home start of his collegiate career. He currently has racked up 164 strikeouts and only 17 walks in 87 1/3 innings. Unreal. As a Boras client, he will not be easy to sign, but he will likely accept a record-setting signing bonus in the $15-20 million range.

2. Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina

The Buzz: Baseball America calls Ackely the best overall amateur hitter in the country, and it shows as his average is hovering over .400 in his Junior season with the Tar Heels. Although he has been limited to first base because of arm strength concerns, Ackley's best value comes as a center fielder, so scouts were thrilled to see Carolina trot him out there twice last weekend against NC State.

3. San Diego Padres - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina

The Buzz: White's year has been highlighted by the one-hitter he tossed against U Miami on April 17, and he has stayed steady since then. He has a mid-90s heater that has good movement and is incredibly well polished after three years of facing tough ACC competition.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

The Buzz: Gibson stands at an imposing 6-foot-6 and features a fastball that sits at 90 with good life. He has put up close to an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio for Missouri this season, and is arguably the most Major League ready pitcher in this year's class.

5. Baltimore Orioles - Grant Green, SS, USC

The Buzz: Nobody has done more to hurt his draft stock this year than Grant Green. After a great performance in the Cape Cod League, Green has struggled mightily this season and has put his draft position in serious doubt (not to mention the fact that he is a Boras client.) To help me sort through this enigma, I contacted Baseball Prospectus' prospect guru, Kevin Goldstein, and Baseball America's draft expert Jim Callis to hear their opinions. Goldstein said that he does not see the Padres taking Green, even though their pick was a popular one to slot him in after his dynamite Cape performance. Callis believes that Green will go between picks five and ten, in part because the draft is so thin on position players. Since he fits one of Baltimore's biggest needs, and because they have shown no fear of dealing with Boras clients in the past, I will tentatively place Green at fifth overall, even though I do so with very little confidence.

6. San Francisco Giants - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)

The Buzz: Tate is a toolsy and well-rounded player who is already committed to UNC for both baseball and football, so he should be hard to sign. However, Tate has great projectable upside, and with the Giants' organization-wide need for position players, he makes a lot of sense here.

7. Atlanta Braves - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)

The Buzz: The Braves love local high school products (just ask Adam Wainwright, Jeff Francoeur, or Brian McCann, among others) and Wheeler looks to be the next one. Wheeler possesses a fastball that ranges from 91-95 and a hard slurve, which he throws in the mid-70s. He's got consistent mechanics and if he's on the board, it's hard to see the Braves pass up on this kid.

8. Cincinnati Reds - Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats (Independent)

The Buzz: After failing to sign with the Washington Nationals during last year's draft, Crow is back in the pool again and is one of the top right-handers in this year's crop. He has a strong mid-90s fastball and a power slider that can hit 85 on the gun. In his most recent outing for Forth Worth, Crow threw four strong scoreless innings.

9. Detroit Tigers - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)

The Buzz: Armed with a low-90s fastball and three extraordinarily well developed secondary pitches, especially for a high schooler, Matzek is the top prep arm in this year's draft class. The Tigers should have no problems signing him, so Matzek would be a great get if he falls to the them at nine.

*10. Washington Nationals - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)

The Buzz: This young high-ceiling righty has got electric stuff although he struggles at times with his command. Right now he seems to be a moderately safe player from a signability standpoint. This is especially important because of the fact that the Nats will have to dish out record-breaking money to land Strasburg, and they will need to take a player with this pick who they know they can sign.

Comments

[3fingerbrown]

There's a dearth of position players in this draft, but still, the Padres have no business taking a pitcher in the first round. They desperately need to surround Adrian Gonzalez with some good hitters--the poor guy: he's got 15 homers and only 29 rbi because no one's ever on base ahead of him. the Nats need some live bats too, but with a pheenom like Strasburg on the table, you gotta grab him. I'm sure you're right that the Pirates will also take a pitcher, but I'd think they'd be a little gun-shy about it considering their track record with "can't miss" pitching prospects recently.

[Sinick]

Test them all for illegal drugs ahead of time and maybe I would care.