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David Wagner

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Report From Tokyo: The Spread of Radioactivity

Posted: 06/ 7/11 09:12 PM ET

The greatest concern for people living anywhere near the Daiichi Fukushima nuclear plant these days is the spread of radioactivity emanating from the facility. In recent days, several reports paint a dire picture of what is happening in Japan.

On June 7, Japanese authorities officially doubled the release of radioactivity for the initial days of the crisis to 770,000 terabecquerels, bringing the total close to 40 percent of official emissions estimates made by the Soviets during the Chernobyl crisis.

Radiation from the plant has spread over 600 square kilometers (230 square miles). Soil samples showed one site with radiation from Cesium-137 exceeding 5 million becquerels per square meter about 25 kilometers to the northwest of the Fukushima plant.

Cesium has a half-life of about 30 years. The longer it stays on the ground, the deeper it penetrates the soil and increases the risk of radioactivity entering underground water.

In a recent interview, nuclear specialist Arnold Gunderson shared his longer-term concern that radioactive water from the plant is not only leaking in to the sea but may also be permeating through in to the groundwater system of surrounding Prefectures.

So it is no wonder most Japanese are deeply concerned about the spread of radioactivity. About six-in-ten (59 percent) are worried that they or someone in their family may have been exposed to radiation from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. And it is no wonder more and more people are conducting individual readings around their homes and offices to corroborate "official" figures.

It depends on what one reads and who one listens to in order to make a clear and balanced judgment about such issues. I must admit my learning curve on things dealing with radiation has been straight up since March 11, when the earthquake hit Japan. But those of us in Japan long for the truth -- honest and accurate information on what is happening to the air, land and sea that does not come from the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

My main question right now is how long it will take to stop radioactive emissions and then clean up the mess. The answer is simple -- a long time. The Japan Center for Economic Research, a private think tank, estimated that scrapping all six reactors at the Fukushima complex could cost up to 15 trillion yen, while compensating people who have been evacuated from areas located within 20 kilometers from the plant could reach around 630 billion yen.

And TEPCO now says that, despite its previous promise to stabilize the reactor cores by the end of 2011, that was "just a target.''

If soil decontamination can occur rapidly, then there is a great chance of preventing groundwater contamination from happening. But given the slow speed with which many actions have been taken since March 11 here, I would not hold my breath. Over the past three months, almost every estimate ranging from radiation emissions to the cost of clean up to the estimates for increased taxes to pay for it all has changed. I would expect these guesstimates to continue to go up.

David Wagner is Director of Crisis Communications for Country Risk Solutions, a political risk consulting firm based in Connecticut. He has lived and worked in Japan for 25 years.

 

Follow David Wagner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/davidwagnerasia

 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Disappointed Democrat
03:41 PM on 06/14/2011
How do you "stabilize" meltdowns? How do you control radioactive lava that can't be cooled down?
professor
Correkt the Spelling and Pick on the Moniker
11:21 AM on 06/10/2011
I am sure it is way too late to prevent contamination of the aquifer. And I am sure that "soil decontamination" will be window dressing at best. What about Tokyo? I want to know.
08:16 PM on 06/15/2011
I would like to know about Tokyo, too, as well as northern Japan (Aomori-ken). We're definitely not sending my niece and nephews there this summer--too unpredictable and potentially dangerous.
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Robert McGehee
I used to be indecisive...Now, I'm not sure.
11:40 AM on 06/09/2011
It's getting harder and harder to give any credit to those insisting that nuclear energy is cheap, clean, and safe. I just can't see that it is any of those things.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
morristhewise
08:44 PM on 06/08/2011
Since the meltdowns at Fukushima the frequencies of my erections and spontaneous sexual stimulation has decreased fifty percent. There can be no other reason for the sudden change but excessive radiation to my testicles and brain.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
08:18 PM on 06/08/2011
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/idINIndia-57576920110608
(Reuters) – All 54 of Japan’s nuclear reactors may be shut by next April, adding more than $30 billion a year to the country’s energy costs, if communitie s object to plant operating plans due to safety concerns, trade ministry officials said on Wednesday.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GandenT
03:21 PM on 06/08/2011
Yes, but on the bright side, some executives made some nice money for a good number of years while the public both subsidized and patronized the facility.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
farleft1917
Nothing is new but only forgotten.
10:45 AM on 06/08/2011
This is a scandal but inevitable result of using nuclear power. Chernobyl contaminated food thousands of miles away. Tokyo is much nearer and they will get radiation poisoning too. I daily pray for my Japanese friends and the people of Japan.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
patman77
09:22 AM on 06/08/2011
until we can find a safe solution to dispose of to the waste...shut em down and put all waste under a lead dome gaurded by troops from everycountry in the world. since this is the main thing man made that can annialate all animals on this planet.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
EcoHustler
www.ecohustler.co.uk
05:27 AM on 06/08/2011
Worldwide exit from nuclear energy: vote here

http://www.ecohustler.co.uk/2011/05/11/worldwide-exit-from-nuclear-energy-vote-here-3/
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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weebles48
i don't need no stinkin badges.
12:27 AM on 06/08/2011
i have not been able to find a recent projection of where the plume is now. the only graphs i could find on the net were from late march.

does anyone know the location of one?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SLS11
Its all there, if we just open our eyes...
12:51 AM on 06/08/2011
There does not have to be a "plume" for radiation to spread.
But try this:

http://www.zamg.ac.at/wetter/fukushima/
The website is in German, but the radiation dispersions (scroll down) are translated into English. You might want to bookmark this site, they have daily updates.
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Max Headroom
Your micro-bio is empty
01:40 AM on 06/08/2011
I find it interesting that they are still posting plume data for Iodine 131 given that it is only created by a critical nuclear reactions and has a half life of 8 days. So, there really should be no Iodine 131 being emitted at this point...

Oh, there must be re-criticalities going on there. Now I get it... (sarcasm intended).
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weebles48
i don't need no stinkin badges.
02:30 AM on 06/08/2011
thanks for the link.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RahSolar
Stupidity is not a crime so you’re free to go
12:21 AM on 06/08/2011
The people of Japan and the planet as a whole deserve better than what they are getting from TEPCO.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SLS11
Its all there, if we just open our eyes...
12:16 AM on 06/08/2011
Japan admits to being unprepared for nuclear disaster

Wednesday 08th June, 06:12 AM JST

Japan admitted Tuesday it was unprepared for a severe nuclear accident like the tsunami-caused Fukushima disaster and said damage to the reactors and radiation leakage were worse than it previously thought.

In a report being submitted to the U.N. nuclear agency, the government also acknowledged reactor design inadequacies and a need for greater independence for the country’s nuclear regulators.

The report said the nuclear fuel in three reactors likely melted through the inner containment vessels, not just the core, after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami knocked out the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant’s power and cooling systems. Fuel in the Unit 1 reactor started melting hours earlier than previously estimated.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/japan-admits-to-being-unprepared-for-nuclear-disaster
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SLS11
Its all there, if we just open our eyes...
12:14 AM on 06/08/2011
Antinuclear group to hold 1st of annual meetings in Fukushima

A Japanese group working for the elimination of nuclear weapons will convene the first of its annual meetings this summer in Fukushima Prefecture, home to the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a member of the group said Tuesday. The Japan Congress Against A- and H-Bombs, or Gensuikin, which has been calling for a nuclear-free world based on the country’s experience of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has decided this year to also focus on opposing nuclear power plants.

The meeting will be held in the city of Fukushima on July 31, followed by meetings on Aug 4 to 6 in Hiroshima and Aug 7 to 9 in Nagasaki. The group will wrap up its meetings in Okinawa Prefecture around Aug 11, where the U.S. military presence is set to be discussed.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/antinuclear-group-to-hold-1st-of-annual-meetings-in-fukushima
01:45 AM on 06/08/2011
Why are peace activists who desire no nuclear weapons linking defense to peaceful nuclear energy?

A nuclear free world requires nuclear reactors to burn the fissile material left over from the Cold War. As much as peace activists would like, one can not dismantle nuclear weapons and store fissile material without considering how the fissile material is finally dispositioned. The legacy cold war material is already being stored in fortified warehouses. The material is to be used for a variety of missions.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Disappointed Democrat
04:26 PM on 06/14/2011
Because there is no such thing as "peaceful nuclear energy". Consuming weapons-grade material in "civilian" reactors only creates more fission products - more nuclear waste.

Your entire post is based on a false premise.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SLS11
Its all there, if we just open our eyes...
12:12 AM on 06/08/2011
Pacific nations to study nuke material impact from Fukushima

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/pacific-nations-to-study-nuke-material-impact-from-fukushima
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SLS11
Its all there, if we just open our eyes...
11:16 PM on 06/07/2011
The planet can not afford another Fukushima, or another Chernobyl!

It is time to wake up, people!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
11:23 PM on 06/07/2011
A trillion Dollars is a terrible thing to WA$TE!
per each disaster!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
11:31 PM on 06/07/2011
IMAGINE what a TRILLION DOLLARS could do for
World hunger
World education
World Peace
why spend it on Nuclear Clean up...?
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Max Headroom
Your micro-bio is empty
02:00 AM on 06/08/2011
Agreed!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GhostOfFDR
Your micro-bio is too brilliant to be approved
12:08 PM on 06/08/2011
You know damn well we'd spend it on hookers and beer. Yeah, Congress is going to allocate money toward hunger, education or peace.