Early Voting May Boost Turnout, Thwart Last-Minute Negative Campaigning

It seems that every four years, the last couple of weeks and the last few days of the election turn nastier and nastier. Sometimes vicious last-minute attacks are fired off so rapidly that the opponent is afforded no time to respond. Virtually every study has shown that negative campaigning does not boost turnout or votes for the candidate doing the attacking, rather it suppresses the votes for the candidate being attacked. In other words, when campaigns turn nasty, less voters turn out.

This year could be different because some of the largest battleground states, such as Ohio, are offering early voting without requiring a valid absentee excuse from the voter. The trend toward no-excuse mail-in voting has been seen in recent cycles but could significantly alter the landscape of battleground states in the presidential election this year.

According to Rep. Nancy Pelosi's daughter, Christine Pelosi, "if you can get your supporters out now, before the final blitz of negativity, you can counter some of the voter suppression that comes in the form of negative campaigning during the last few weeks."

Battleground states with early voting programs include Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. In some states, votes are counted as they are received, while in others they are not opened or counted until election day. In states where votes are counted when received, the campaigns have the advantage of being able to find out who has already voted, and then those voters can be removed from call lists and canvassing lists.

Nate Silver at fivethirteight.com says that Ohio will be the "canary in the mine" this year in regards to early voting -- their early voting ends next week on October 6th. Campaigns & Elections magazine notes that due to the Ohio deadline for early voting, along with the economic crisis unfolding this week, the race could possibly be decided this week if the electoral college comes down to Ohio.

The Obama campaign is paying special attention to early voting, campaigning hard for voters who can use mail-in ballots to use them. In addition to likely boosting overall turnout, this strategy also saves campaigns valuable resources during the crunch time of election day and the days immediately preceding election day.

Follow Dawn Teo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dawnteo

Comments

[Grenadier]

Virginia has absentee/early voting, and they're emphasizing that people with long working hours or an long commute are encouraged to vote early . It's easy, there were no lines on Tuesday, and the poll workers told me that over 350 had already voted in two days. We're going blue! Go, Virginia!

[LoveComesInSpurts]

I'd feel better about this if the CEO of Diebold wasn't a self-professed hardcore republican.

[KC333]

Well Barack Obama just got my vote. I am sending my ballot off today.

[NevadaLiberal]

VOTE EARLY VOTE EARLY. Vote the first day you can and then spend the rest of the time up until election day driving people to the polls.

[AwareInGeorgia]

That is what I am doing in Atlanta. My early vote has been taken. I have been driving voters to the polls on my day off from work. I took tuesday off to continue to drive voters to the polls. I encourage everyone to help those who cannot get to the polls this november.

OBAMA/BIDEN 08

[DiBaskin]

I am kind of upset because I moved from CA to TX. CA is a blue state, TX is red. I feel like my vote won't really count. I will vote anyway but hate living in a red state. We do have early voting. You have to physically go to the polls to vote.

[rchlapowski]

"In other words, when campaigns turn nasty, less voters turn out."

Sorry to be the grammar police, but it should be "fewer" voters, not "less."

[doctorwang]

Sorry to be the grammar police...

It should be police officer, or policeman/woman, etc. The noun 'police' denotes a group or body of persons.

[rchlapowski]

Umm... "Sorry to be the grammar police officer?" That just sounds lame. I'm just trying to keep it real while promoting good grammar.

[flamberg]

Last time I looked you have to be absent for absentee ballets. Just another way to rig your turnout.

[Mildmannered]

I don't know whether it will thwart last minute negative campaigning but it will make it less effective

[Progress08]

I mailed my absentee ballot in yesterday and got 3 of my coworkers to get absentee ballots as well in the great state of IOWA.

[borgo]

I have a question in general, what happens if I cast my vote early and something happens to my candidate of choice so that they were (are) no longer a candidate. Where does my vote go?

[speeddeeps]

you mean like if Pal!n gets dropped?

[Progress08]

Vote straight democrat and the democrat will get it.

[bygollymissmolly]

If everyone who can votes early or votes absentee, can you imagine what chaos the evening of the election will be. If most Democrats vote absentee or have already voted, the exit polls will be useless and the MSM will have a hard time calling the election.

I just wish that the Democrats would get more people out there to handle the voter disenfranchisement and caging that the Republicans are pulling. In many states they are sending misleading and lying messages to students telling them things like if they register and vote in the state of their college their parents won't be able to declare them as a deduction. This is an outright lie. When caught several registrar of voters said "We send that notice in error". Right, like they don't know the voting laws in their own state.

Vote early if you can and vote absentee if you can't.

[Hellooo]

If dipping a forefinger into purple dye is worth our children dying in Iraq, why can't the purple finger approach work in these United States?

[bygollymissmolly]

Early voting will also minimize the amount of shenanigans the Republicans can pull in polling places.

Please everyone who cares.

1) Call your registrar of voters to make sure you are still registered.
2) Ask for an absentee ballot
3) Fill out your absentee ballot and return it by election day

If every Democrat in the nation were to do these three things, the election will be a rout. The only way we can be sure our vote is not being disenfranchised is by verifying we are registered and voting absentee.

[Chris Savage - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm envious of those of you who get to vote early. In Michigan, you have to lie and say you'll be out of town if you don't meet one of the other criteria. I'm so anxious to register my vote!

[XME]

Virginia is the same...can­'t vote early unless you be "absent" on the 4th. Not only am I anxious to register my vote, but turnout will be nuts this year. I'm worried about how prepared the polls will be.

[KNadine]

I'm really torn about the voting early thing. My state (Georgia) is doing early voting now, but I really want the experience of standing in line and soaking up the history by voting on Nov 4. My area is about 99.9 in favor of Obama so I know the lines will be loooong.

[Grenadier]

Hey, not true! Check out the commuter information online. You don't have to be "absent."
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Absentee_Voting/Index.html

[mayrose]

If you vote early and there is a problem with registration you have time to address it. Wait until election day and if your registration is challenged there isn't much you can do about it. Illinois early voting starts on the 13th and I'll be there!

[ssullivan]

Voter registration in Ohio ends on the 6th, not Early Voting.
Early voting takes place from this past Tuesday until Nov 3.

For this entire week people have the opportunity to register to vote and vote all at the same time.