- BIG NEWS:
- Barack Obama
- |
- GOP
- |
- Sarah Palin
- |
- Bobby Jindal
- |
Zogby: Obama Leads Arizona; McCain Support Still Dropping
PHOENIX -- According to the most recent Zogby poll, Obama now leads by 3 points in McCain's home state of Arizona. Among independent voters in the state (almost one third of all voters here), Obama is ahead by 13 percent, 51 to 38.
The McCain campaign has struggled in Arizona. His campaign was embarrassed recently by being forced to move a fundraiser from a reception hall to a private home due to lack of interest. McCain had little grassroots support here before his campaign office opened, and when it did finally open, there were nearly as many protesters outside as attendees inside.
Last month, after polls showed McCain up by only 9 points statewide and only 5 points in his home district, he acknowledged that he could lose Arizona -- a state that George Bush won by 10 points in 2004.
Zogby shows Bob Barr garnering 7 percent of Arizona voters, and in a very serious sign of McCain's lack of appeal to the conservative base, Barr has the support of 16 percent of "very conservative" voters.
Republicans currently have a 3 point lead over Democrats in voter registration statewide, but voter registrations have been trending poorly for the Republicans in 2007 and 2008. While the most significant gains in voter registration have been independents, Democrats have also added significant numbers to the rolls. Republican voter registration has been relatively flat.
Zogby's prediction for McCain's home state in November? Too close to call.
UPDATE: The author initially misread the poll to say that Obama trailed by 3 points. In fact Obama leads by 3 and the margin of error is +/- 3 points. The lead and headline has been rewritten to reflect the correction.
Follow Dawn Teo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dawnteo
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
I thought that Arizonans adored McCain. Apparently not.
Thank you Bob Barr. And good luck to you.
people this is important, its his achilles heal.
it doesnt matter if mccain is going to win arizona, but if the perception is that he has to fight for his state then he will be seen to be mortally weak. Once the doubt sets in, the panic follows and every state will be seen to be up for grabs, you cannot buy that kind of bad news for mccain.
Zogby poll is heartening but far from conclusive.
In realistic terms, a +3 = neck & neck.
Also - I notice that RealClear (for whatever reason) is not posting the Zogby AZ numbers. (Is there a problem with interviewing or sampling techniques)?
While Barr appears to be sitting at or near 7% in both AZ and Georgia, is it realistic to believe he'll still be hovering around that number in Nov.? (In the brief time he and Ron Paul jumped into the general election battle, I haven't seen either of them gain very much traction. Quite possibly they will fade away before Nov.).
I live in NJ but have an affinity for (and friends in) AZ (due to a serious character flaw - Cardinal football fan). My impression is that many if not most AZ citizens are (a) grumpy and (b) and independent lot (i.e. you may find liberal Democrats jump ship for McCain because "they have a headache" & Conservatives switching to Obama because McCain's been too busy running for President to adequately represent his state or perhaps simply "because they like the cut of his jib."
It's a weird election year, and we may find AZ serving as a paradygn for other maverick states west of the Mississippi.
Or not.
This is funny, but no way Mccain loses Arizona. I just don't see that happening....However, he's still got time to throw it away, but that would take massive screwups that actually get reported.
"....massive screwups that ACTUALLY GET REPORTED." The last 3 words are the operative ones.
It certainly hasn't been happening thus far. Rev. Wright was so much more important, y'know.
As much as I'd love it if O bama won AZ, I don't see it happening either. I hope I am proven wrong though!
Native, lifelong Arizona Republican , Goldwater fan ( post 1980's) I am voting 0bama 2008. Sorry in Arizona we put our GELDINGS to pasture and we've two US Senators that this option is way pass due.
Obama/Wexler/Edwards/Kaine 2008
I am truly hoping that Arizona will turn blue this year!
Obama '08
Not surprising.
We could have developed solar energy had John McCain asked for federal funds to put Arizona universities at the center of that research years ago. By calling all earmarks wasteful, he deprived the nation of one of the best hopes of replacing foreign oil.
With all of the solar and wind resources in the Western desert states, native Americans have been building casinos when they could have been building wind farms and solar plants to sell power to the national energy grid. This represents a failure of imagination during all of the years that McCain and Senator Kyl have been representing Arizona in the Senate.
Problem solving with innovation and unconventional thinking is what Senator Obama is offering Arizona. His movement will get new ideas on the table and they may come from ordinary people who do not have political connections or huge amounts of money to give to candidates.
As our Governor has said. "Washington is where good ideas go to die". Hope Barack keeps AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano his national team.
Hi John McCain:
I’m one of the people that looses because you never ask for pork barrel spending for your state.
Gee! a call center in Indian country instead of India would help my family and neighbors.
But I’m not wining I’m Bitter!
You see I live in one of the poorest parts of the United States.
Employment on my Native American Reservation is over 60%.
I live 90 miles from the nearest small town, Winslow, AZ. So when I
drive 180 miles round trip to go grocery shopping I am dam BITTER.
When I spend 1/4 if my monthly budget on gas I am extremely BITTER.
I do work but in the past two years I have not had an increase in salary.
Many of my friends have lost their jobs and they are really suffering
– do you think they have a reason to be BITTER?
We depend on tourism for our lively hood on the reservation. How many people do you
think are going to visit the reservation when gas is over $4.50 per gallon here?
So Phil Gramm and John McCain if you think it’s all in my mind YOU are suffering from mental delusions. if you think when push comes to shove anyone but the top 2% of the nations wealthiest citizens will vote for you it is you who is suffering from hallucinations.
You need to move somewhere else.
Kwaayesnama, like every American can live were they want; perhaps the person decideds to stay as one of the viable of that community; it is commendable to try and help ones own. Beside the examples sited are not uncommon to most any rural area in America.
chill
Thinklib, what a stupid reply to an excellent post. Thanks, Kwaayesnama, for enlightening us to your situation. The energy burden on people who live in remote areas is exceptionally hard, and constitutes a huge part of their budgets.
McCain is losing his home state to Bob Barr. HA HA HA!
"Barr has the support of 16 percent of "very conservative" voters".
I'm too conservative for my shirt too conservative for my shirt
So conservative it hurts
And I'm too conservative for Milan too conservative for Milan
New York and Japan
I'm too conservative for my car too conservative for my car
Too conservative by far
And I'm too conservative for my hat
Too conservative for my hat what do you think about that
Um, read the poll again. Obama is 3 points ahead, not behind.
That error can be attributed to wishful thinking.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
