McCain Acknowledges He May Lose Arizona
The McCain campaign's election strategy PowerPoint, published on his website this morning, reveals that the campaign has accepted a remarkable fact: McCain and his advisers have lumped Arizona, the Republican Party presumptive nominee's home state, among what it is considering swing states. In other words, McCain feels he could lose Arizona to Obama, an admission that squares with recent surprising polling data.
In Arizona, and particularly among his home district residents, Sen. John McCain's popularity compared to Sen. Barack Obama's is declining fairly rapidly, according to the most recent poll.
Democratic Congressional candidate Bob Lord, running to represent Arizona's 3rd District, commissioned the poll, which was published last week and reports McCain drawing 48 percent and Obama 43 percent support among residents in the district that the McCain family calls home. Statewide, McCain only leads Obama by an 11-point margin. The surprising poll results add to the growing feeling among analysts that McCain can take nothing for granted against Obama, particularly it seems in McCain's western region of the country.
McCain's PowerPoint swing-state map meant to give
confidence to supporters.
Indeed, one of the unexpected reasons McCain's home district may be turning on him is that it is also home to more than 56,000 veterans. Veterans in Arizona have been outraged that McCain refused to sign on to the recent GI Bill written to increase educational benefits to soldiers serving in the post 9/11 U.S. military. That McCain is losing ground among veterans and Arizona residents must come as dire news to his supporters and members of his campaign.
By way of comparison, the opposite -- McCain gaining ground in Obama's home state and district -- is unimaginable. A poll of Illinois voters published in March showed Obama's popularity continuing to rise in relation to McCain's, up 60 percent to 31 percent. And the idea that McCain could draw close in Obama's home district -- the 1st District -- centered around Hyde Park, the Obama family's urban south-side neighborhood and home to the University of Chicago, is laughable. Indeed, the district's longtime representative is Bobby Rush, the former Black Panther who authoritatively defended his seat against Obama eight years ago, schooling the now-presumptive Democratic Party nominee in grassroots politics.
One explanation for McCain's dropping lead in Arizona suggested by the poll is the impact of the corruption scandal presently plaguing Arizona Republican Congressman John Shadegg, who is accused of skirting election finance laws.
Shadegg enjoys 75 percent name recognition, but only 31 percent of respondents said they will vote for Shadegg in the upcoming election. This is a drop of eight points from a poll conducted earlier in the year when 39 percent of respondents said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote to re-elect him.
While the McCain lead shrinks in Arizona, Obama is gaining in popularity throughout the West, leading analysts to suggest Democrats, riding Obama's coattails in the fall, will do very well there in state and congressional races.
Follow Dawn Teo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dawnteo
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I don't think anybody can underestimate the GOP at any time. They want to lull us into a sense of security by trying to make John McCain out to be the underdog. Everybody knows that Obama is the underdog. We have to work extra extra hard as if Obama is down by 20 points in every state. We can't afford to let up; not one day. We can rest after 11/4/2008. If we all help each other and our neighboring states, our support will be even stronger. We refuse to let the repub steal this again from our country.
You're all wrong..
The reason the McCain will likely lose in Arizona is his pro-illegal immigration stance!!
Pretty much a left-of-left liberal, but I would've voted for Joe Arpaio over Obama in a heartbeat.
And so would MOST Arizonians.. MY reason is obvious.... I live in Los Angeles.
Oh, he changed that today. Flip-flopper!!!
McCain is weak among women and he has the same attitude toward the Hard working white men and women that Dick Cheney has toward "the inbreeding" West Virginians. He views them as trash with votes. If he puts Mitt Romney on the ticket it will be known as the John and Mitt flip flop express.
Rudy Gulianna and John McCain;
Rudy and his constant 911 references - McCain and his constant POW references.
Both ad nauseum.
McCain is going to lose a lot more than Arizona - he's going to lose this election by a landslide (the biggest landslide in history!).
Mcsame will be lucky if his friends vote for him. Our antiquated electoral system,has suffered from stagnation as has congress. Mcsame is running on Bush's failed policies,regardless of what Mcsame says. We elected Democrats in the last election,and i guess we set our sights too high,expecting something to change. we are still in an unpopular war,the economy has left the building, gas prices are still going up, congress has given big oil the green light to keep raising them by not taking back tax breaks, which oil companys say will raise the price, unless i'm mistaken the price is going up no matter what. Nafta has worked to the advantage of the lobbyist American jobs are no longer leaving because no one wants the minimum wage jobs that are left. The government has become unfeeling and top heavy soon it will be unable to sustain it self by just printing more worthless money, We need programs to put people back to work not another useless coin to collect.
I’m from McCain’s home district in Arizona and I am not surprised at this story. Indeed, I’ve predicted that Obama will beat McCain here in Arizona by between 30 and 40 thousand votes. As the campaign season gets rolling and more people learn about McCain’s symbiotic relationship with the lobbyists who surround him (more than 100 registered lobbyists work in his campaign office), you can expect to see his support shrink further.
Regarding our Governor: Janet Napolitano is a Democrat. If she were to become Obama’s running mate, she would have to resign and that would leave our Secretary of State, Jan Brewer as Governor. Brewer and her Republican cronies in our state legislature are salivating at the prospect of just such a scenario. Brewer has previously attempted to take control when Governor Napolitano was out of state on state business; she’s a real piece of work. There are plenty of people amply qualified to serve as V.P. Please also read Wes Clark’s article elsewhere in HuffPo to see why McCain is not suited to be Commander In Chief. Thank you.
insane mccain shouldnt worry about losing arizona. he should be more worried about losing his marbles!! Bwaahaahaaha
How could the people of Arizona keep electing a person to national office who was at the bottom of his class in school. Out of a class of 899 - - McCain was number 894. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU ARIZONA??? All these years - - you voted for an IDIOTas your senator! Unbelievable! And he does not know how to use a FREAKING COMPUTER????? Unbelievable!
"In Arizona, and particularly among his home district residents"-- could somebody please explain that to me, particularly the particularly part? Thank you.
See Dawn Teo's Profile
McCain's home state is Arizona, and within his home state, his home Congressional district is CD-3. In the statewide poll, he was 11 points up, and in the CD-3 poll, he was only 5 points up. In other words, he is doing more poorly within his own hometown than across his home state.
You know what they say... your neighbors know you...
I've lived in Arizona for 35 years, and I and other Arizonans should ask ourselves what John McCain has accomplished for this state in his tenure in Congress. He has been so preoccupied with building a reputation for being a "maverick" opposed to "pork" that he has failed to support legitimate needs in Arizona.
seriously! every year I go to visit family and there is more traffic and no upgrades to highways
-> Maverick?
---> Of what?
-----> Doom & Gloom? He is a mess!
Obama getting nice bounce in polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/todays-polls-611.html
"In Michigan, Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 45-42 lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen's Michigan poll from last month, Obama had trailed by one point. In New York, Quinnipiac has Barack Obama ahead by 14 points. While this result is not inherently all that surprising, it does represent a 6-point improvement from Quinnipiac's prior poll of the state.
There have now been six polls that were in the field since the Democratic primaries were concluded, and for which we have a previous trendline against which to compare. Barack Obama has gained ground in all six of those polls; his average bounce has been about 5 points.
GA Rasmussen 5/6 -14 Rasmussen 6/4 -10
NJ Rasmussen 3/27 -1 Rasmussen 6/4 +9
WI Rasmussen 5/5 -4 Rasmussen 6/5 +2
NY Quinnipiac 4/15 +8 Quinnipiac 6/6 +14
WA SurveyUSA 5/17 +16 SurveyUSA 6/8 +17
MI Rasmussen 5/7 -1 Rasmussen 6/9 +3
-----------------------------------------------------
AVG +0.7 +5.8"
Yeah, they told us Arizona was going to be a swing state in 2004, too, and then Bush won by 13 points.
McCain's a hell of a lot more popular here than Bush, so pardon me if I'm skeptical.
Not sure if you noticed...but hemroids are more popular than Bush.
McCain should win ONE State--Texas. The state that groomed a cowboy for the highest office in the land The state that, because of the "polygamist" compound over-reaction, still thinks it's a Republic and the US Constitution doesn't apply. The most rabidly conservative populace of any member of the Union. Wishful thinking? I suppose, but it sure would be idiocratic.
Let me chime in, I'm in Colorado supposed to be a RED state, but we have a Democratic Gov, House and Senate and during our Demo vote in Feb., the place I voted at was packed!!! We in Colorado, went to Obama, I do feel that the Republican party is going to loose and loose Big in November. All I can say is Thank God, 1/20/09 will be an end of an error!!!!
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