PHOENIX -- Five polls conducted over the last two weeks here describe the race for the presidency in John McCain's home state as a dead heat.
When the first of the five polls was released a few days ago, some Arizonans wrote it off as an outlier. Then another poll came out with similar results. Then the Arizona Capitol Times reported that an internal Republican poll had found the same results. Then another and another. Five polls.
Losing Arizona would be a remarkable feat for McCain given that he lives here, at least part time, and that Arizona has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once (in 1996 for Clinton) since Harry Truman's surprise upset over Thomas Dewey in 1948. Bush won Arizona by 10 points in 2004.
Republicans are vexed. Democrats are hopeful.
Market Intelligence/Zimmerman & Assoc.
(Conducted Oct. 16-19)
McCain 44% Obama 42% Other 5% Undecided 9%Margin of error: +/-4.9%
Sample: 408 likely voters
Painstaking efforts by Democrats to canvass in even the reddest districts of the Phoenix metropolitan area are paying off. This poll shows McCain with only a 3-point lead (43-40) in Maricopa County (Phoenix) where Bush won by 15 points in 2004. This is a serious deficiency for any Republican candidate in a statewide race. Meanwhile, Obama is running up the score in Pima County (Tucson) with a lead of nearly 19 points.
Myers & Grove / Project New West
(Conducted Oct. 23-24)
McCain 48% Obama 44% Other 5%Margin of error: +/-4%
Sample: 600 general election voters
Among those who have already voted, Obama enjoyed a 1-point lead (47-46) in this poll, but among those who have not yet voted, McCain still shows a 7-point advantage (49-42). Obama has a strong lead of 10 points among independent voters in the Project New poll. Men favor McCain by 18 points (54-36), while women favor Obama by 8 points (50-42).
ASU/Cronkite
(Conducted Oct. 23-26)
McCain 46% Obama 44% Undecided 9%Margin of error: +/-3%
Sample: 574 registered voters
ASU/Cronkite showed McCain ahead by 7 points at the end of September, making this a dramatic drop in home state support.
Most supporters have made up their minds, and most indicate very strong support for their candidate. Only 7 percent of McCain supporters and 6 percent of Obama supporters say they might be willing to change their minds before election day.
Arizona State University Associate Poll Director Dr. Tara Blanc told KAET8 that a home state advantage does not make the population of the state immune to the trends that are happening across the country. Independent voters are breaking for Obama not just in Arizona but also across the country.
More than twice as many people who were polled believe that McCain has run a more negative campaign compared to Obama.
Rasmussen
(Conducted Oct. 26)
McCain 51% Obama 46%Margin of error: +/-4.5%
Sample: 500 likely voters
Before this poll was released on Monday, the smallest lead Rasmussen showed for McCain was a 9 point lead in June.
Overall, voters in this survey believe that John McCain is better able to handle the economy and the war on terror. However, Obama fares better on these issues among independents.
McCain's lead among white voters is down from a 23 point lead to a 13 point lead. Obama fares better among Hispanic voters (58-34). McCain leads among men (55-42), and Obama leads among women (49-47).
Internal Republican Poll
(Reported by Arizona Capitol Times on Oct. 27)
McCain +3
Although neither candidate has made a major appearance in Arizona since the primaries, Merrill said Democrats could bring a major national figure into Arizona to boost turnout in the final days of the election. Turnout is expected to be an astounding 85 percent, which is expected to help Democrats in down-ticket races.
Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick is expected to win the seat of currently indicted Rick Renzi (R) in Arizona's first Congressional district. The hottest race in Arizona, however, is taking place in the third district, the seat previously held by John McCain and currently held by Republican powerhouse John Shadegg.
Until recently, Shadegg's seat was rated "likely Republican" by most pollsters but has moved into the "leaning Republican" column. The netroots has gotten into the action with high profile Democratic bloggers asking Democrats across the country to contribute money to this race. Like the presidential race, the outcome of this Congressional race will hinge on turnout.
Arizona Democrats are determined to win a majority of state House seats for the first time in forty years. They have spent an impressive half a million dollars on state House races, while Republicans have only been able to spend a fraction of that. It is likely that Democrats will hold a majority in the state House after November 4.
Follow Dawn Teo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dawnteo
The McCainiacs bogarted it all and are stumbling around drunk on the stuff so you'd better go see if you can bum some off of them!
My husband and I voted for and stomped the pavement for Ron Paul in the primary (the first time we registered and voted was for Ross Perot). So, even us crazy Arizonans that have a Libertarian streak can and will vote for Obama. Most people aren't as partisan as the politicians would hope for.
So you never can tell how someone might ultimately vote.
Are their any other Ron Paul supporters out their now voting for Obama?
I feel that John McCain is out of touch with Arizona and the American people. As an Arizona Republican I received a fundraising letter from the McCain campaign. I sent it back with a note that says I will donate exactly the same amount that John McCain has requested in earmarks for our state. McCain’s call to fame is that he is the only representative in Washington never to request any earmarks for his home state. What does that prove? In my estimation John McCain has been the laziest representative in Washington in the last 26 years! To me it shows that in McCain’s mind Arizona does not need any assistance from Washington. He is happy to see all the tax dollars that we send to DC go to other states. Arizona has Indian Reservations with unemployment over 60%. Wouldn’t a call center in Indian Country be better then one in INDIA? We have beautiful rural areas that would greatly benefit from an increase in tourism. McCain’s lack of concern for Arizona shows that when John and Cindy fly over our state in their private plane that they do not pay attention to the people that live outside of Scottsdale. Lets see if in November the citizens of Arizona will send him a message and not vote for him. So this educated, white, Christian, Republican grandmother donated, ZERO, NOTHING, NONE, NADA! To the McCain Campaign.
Now we are scheduled to help get the voters out on Friday the last day of early voting here and then again on the 4th.
VOTE VOTE VOTE don't think that your vote is not needed every vote is needed!!!
Get out there and volunteer for Obama! You've got just over 30 hours - get it done!
Obama '08!
http://www.imeem.com/presidentialplaylists
I received my first McC robocall today....and promptly hung up.
O/Biden '08
Bob Lord '08
But it was a conference call for Obama supporters around the country and just talking to him you know he won't be satisfied until we get every last voter who will join us in marching this country forward is accounted for!
Get out there and keep working hard! If you haven't got out there yet, get out there and put your work where you vote is! Volunteers are coming out in DROVES! It is unbelievable! Go out there and see it for yourself! Stand at corners waving signs! Knock on doors! Make calls! Get out the vote! We've got one chance! One opportunity!
Obama '08!
A friend and I got other folks to help register new voters sometime during the summer. We ended up with 428 new voters by Oct. 6. Very conservatively, 80% of those will vote Obama/Biden. If you're out there, folks, vote early and let's elect our guys so we can change the world.
Independents are really going to play a key role in this election in Arizona. As a previous poster noted, McCain has done absolutely nothing for the State of Arizona. In fact, in all of his campaigning this year and during debate appearances, have you ever once heard him mention Arizona? Has he pushed one bit of legislation to encourage solar manufacturing or solar investment in Arizona, a state with more days of sunshine than any other in the country?
I think Senator McCain is going to have to work really hard next year to even get reelected to the Senate.
WASHINGTON - The Pew Hispanic Center today released a fact sheet about Hispanic registered voters in Florida. Final 2008 general election voter registration figures from Florida, along with recent data from the U.S. Census, show significant changes in both the political leanings and the demographics of Latinos in the electoral-rich Sunshine State. This year more Hispanics in Florida are registered as Democrats (513,252) than as Republicans (445,526). As recently as 2006, the reverse was true: among Latino registered voters in Florida, more were Republican (414,185) than Democratic (369,906).
The fact sheet is available on the Center's website at www.pewhispanic.org.