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Dean Baker

Dean Baker

Posted: November 15, 2010 01:51 PM

At this point most of the country has heard the story of "Aqua Buddha." According to an anonymous account, during his college days, Kentucky Sen.-elect Rand Paul dragged a woman down to a river and told her to bow down to the river, which he referred to as "Aqua Buddha." His opponent in the campaign tried to make an issue out of this incident by implying that Paul worshiped the river as a god.

Whatever the truth of this incident, it doesn't come close to the silliness exhibited by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, the co-chairs of President Obama's deficit commission. Among the items on the to-do list of the chairs was a cap of government spending at 21 percent of GDP. One can only assume that the number 21 bears some sort of religious significance for Simpson and Bowles because it certainly makes no sense to have this sort of rule on policy grounds.

The standard way to determine the size of government is to have the government perform the services that are more efficiently and effectively done by the government than the private sector. If the total value of these services is less than 21 percent of the economy, that would be fine. On the other hand, there is no obvious problem created if it is more than 21 percent, except for those with religious beliefs about the number 21.

The point is fairly straightforward. There are a number of services that are obviously performed better by the government than the private sector. Almost everyone's list would include the military, police and fire departments. Most people also think that the government has a responsibility to ensure that children get an education and ideally a good one. Some of these services can even be contracted out, but the money still must be raised through tax revenue and pass through the government.

It turns out that public retirement plans like the US Social Security system are far more efficient than their private sector counterparts. The administrative costs of Social Security are less than 1/20th the cost of maintaining 401(k)s on average. This makes a strong argument for a public social security system.

Any individual program must be assessed on its merits, but suppose a careful examination of these programs gives a total government share of the economy in excess of 21 percent. In this case, the Simpson-Bowles 21 Percent Rule would dictate that we shift some services that are more efficiently provided by the government to the private sector. This implies wasting resources, thereby, slowing growth and costing jobs. In other words, because of Simpson's and Bowles' reverence for the number 21, we will have to throw people out of work.

It is possible that Simpson and Bowles are basing their 21 Percent Rule on political economy grounds. The story would be that out of control politicians just can't keep themselves from continually increasing the extent of government interference in the economy. There are two problems with this picture.

The first problem is that, insofar as this is true, the Simpson-Bowles 21 Percent Rule won't help. If politicians are determined to interfere in the economy, it is easy to find ways to do so that do not involve direct spending by the federal government.

For example, the federal government can pressure state and local governments to spend through either mandates or matching funds. It can also use tax expenditures to replace spending. For example, the tax deductions for housing and employer-provided health care are mechanisms through which the government subsidizes housing and employer-provided health care. However, these subsidies don't count as part of the Simpson-Bowles 21 percent.

The government can also redistribute income by shaping markets, for example by providing or extending patent and copyright monopolies. It can also erect or eliminate trade barriers in various markets to steer income in specific directions.

In short, out of control politicians will not be prevented from interfering in the economy by the 21 Percent Rule, they will just have to take a different course. And, in most cases, the different courses pursued are likely to involve less transparency and more inefficiency than direct government spending.

The other flaw with the political economy argument is that it is fighting a problem that does not exist. According to the projections from the Congressional Budget Office, noninterest spending is projected to be 18.6 percent of GDP in 2020 (total spending is projected at 22.7 percent) . In 1980, noninterest spending was 18.8 percent of GDP. This means that, over this 40-year period, the share of federal spending on programs will have actually fallen by a small amount. Federal spending has not been out of control, as Simpson and Bowles seem to believe.

In other words, the 21 Percent Rule is bad solution for a problem that does not exist. We should pray to Aqua Buddha that Congress doesn't take it seriously.

 
At this point most of the country has heard the story of "Aqua Buddha." According to an anonymous account, during his college days, Kentucky Sen.-elect Rand Paul dragged a woman down to a river and to...
At this point most of the country has heard the story of "Aqua Buddha." According to an anonymous account, during his college days, Kentucky Sen.-elect Rand Paul dragged a woman down to a river and to...
 
 
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07:58 AM on 11/17/2010
The rich corporations hate taxes and they love profits. That is what they do. Their supreme goal is to gut government so they can get profits from privatizing schools, Social Security, health care and Medicare etc.

All they do and have done is focus on ways to turn taxes into profits.

They need to pay more taxes. They have too much money to buy our politicians.
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Alg0rhythm
REAL change is needed now!
02:53 PM on 11/16/2010
There is no actual lock box; but it is really ridiculous for the Social Security funds to be spent... I doubt there would ever be a social security problem if the money was spent. However; technically, collecting funds for one purpose and spending them on another can be considered fraud.
01:35 PM on 11/16/2010
One thing the Gaggle Of Plutocrats (GOP) doesn't want us to notice is that debt has 2 components (revenues and expenses), not just one (expenses). As Baker notes, non-interest spending is lower than it was 40 years ago, so our debt problem clearly is, in part, on the revenue side.

Part of that revenue problem is the recession, which reduces tax receipts. But staring us in the face is another part - the Bush tax cuts.

I, for one, refuse to be dragged into a debate about "debt" by people who only consider the expense side (and even then, refuse to look at "Defense" and other parts of the budget they like) and refuse to acknowledge the elephant in the room - the huge reduction in taxes paid by the wealthiest corporations and individuals in America.

If you can't acknowledge that and consider it as part of the national debt picture, you're not serious. Period.
12:54 PM on 11/16/2010
Excellent piece. You've completely exposed their idea as utter nonsense. They won't be able to refute your logic.
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sposton
right to tell what they don't want to hear
11:46 AM on 11/16/2010
Dean Baker questions one religious belief but doesn't question another, more important one. What do governments have to have any debt at all? ;-)
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sposton
right to tell what they don't want to hear
12:01 PM on 11/16/2010
What = Why
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
09:27 AM on 11/16/2010
For the rich, all things are best done by the private sector, regardless of efficiency. The rich live off of private-sector profits, returns on their investment. They don't get that from the public sector.

Private health insurance is less efficient than public, costs the country more. But the profits go the rich stockholders, so we can't get rid of it, the rich won't let us.

The purpose of privatization is increased profits for the rich, not increased efficiency.
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09:17 AM on 11/16/2010
I agree. 21% is total BS.

It should be 10%.
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den1953
The best politicians are for free!
11:46 AM on 11/16/2010
I suppose you weren't around when two key bills were held up in the Senate because Shelby wanted those tanker contracts awarded to his home state and would not un block legislation until they could broker a deal with him, do some research it might educate you to the ways of Washington lobbyist!
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den1953
The best politicians are for free!
09:10 AM on 11/16/2010
There are 54 Senators that are millionaires why would any of them not vote for the Bush Tax Cuts for the upper 2% of the wealthy, nice to know you are including yourself in the big raise to strap this nation in 700+ billion in debt......
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09:18 AM on 11/16/2010
And yet no complaints from you about the 2 trillion dollars the middle class tax cuts cost.

Let me guess, you had no complaints about the 800 billion pork bill misnamed the stimulus package?
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den1953
The best politicians are for free!
09:53 AM on 11/16/2010
I would like nothing more then to have a Democrat or a Republican to block or filibuster all those Bush Tax Cuts and get out of Iraq and Afghanistan, freeze all Government salaries, restructure our tax system to make it fair, and cut military spending 1/3. Your so called pork spending is mostly those southern Senators with defense contractors loading up the pork and they are Republican Senator Shelby look up who gets the most pork spending out of the Senate. You are so ill informed about Government spending you should do some research before you post!
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cayuse
Soaring Eagle, soaring to Spirit from the ego self
08:56 AM on 11/16/2010
60% of all corporate TAX goes out of main street economy to Secondary Stock Trader who did not make the initial investment. NO CONTRIBUTION for all the Labor SWEAT and GENIUS

Al Capone was not that smart. He was caught also by tax evasion. The only way to not pay TAX was for him to hire more thugs or build more buildings. He did neither. He simply took the worker for no SWEAT and GENIUS. Like Wall Street, Banking, Investment Markets
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08:53 AM on 11/16/2010
Spending cuts and taxes, together, are the to reduce deficits. The waste and fraud would be a place to start. While your at it, get me a free "Hoveround."
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kurtvb
Knowledge is Power
08:46 AM on 11/16/2010
The problem with government appointed commissions is that they get filled with former and failed politicians rather than experienced people. Where were all the real economist, both left and right and why were they not on this commission? All politicians have an agenda.

There is no need to limit spending if, in real terms, spending has not gone up. This privatization scheme never works and always costs the American taxpayer more in the end.
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cayuse
Soaring Eagle, soaring to Spirit from the ego self
08:41 AM on 11/16/2010
As simple as economic 101 is I think I am beginning to see why we are falling behind the world.

There is no Macro or Micro demand. lost jobs, low salaries, displace workers. This is an imbalance of the Capital supply side vs the Labor supply side.

Tax cuts to the Supply side make less Aggregate Demand. Business are motivated to make money. No Demand no Money. the more money you give them the Widgets they don't have to sell raising the price of Widgets that are not drirvin down by no Demand anyway

Tax raise to the Supply side will force business to give TAX to the Fed or HIRE or Invest. WOW

Public Spending on a down CYCLE brought us out of the smaller GREAT DEPRESSION with FDR Keynesian economics. ONLY thing that has ever worked. Build the ROAD and BRIDGES will privatize spending 14 times the public sending. WHAT WE NEED

WWII was a CONTROLLED MILITARY economy. GUNS and not BUTTER No products to be had. Unless you traded in GUNS.

Time for B.S to stop talking and we start Walking out of this Down Cycle.

Privatizing Haliburton, Fanny Mae, Blackwater, is the TRUE Entitlements to our Tax Dollars. You tell me how good privatized Banking, Insurance, Oil, Airline, Farming, work. SSA is self sustaining and MY INVESTMENT.

Does Chavez have these problems? I mean no concern for the public
08:34 AM on 11/16/2010
Government without limits is the problem.

I like a limit of 21% of spending and would prefer 19%. It makes people think about what they are doing. If States get pressure they need to think as well. You can go around a slam the private sector, but people can chose to get ripped off or not. With the government black hole of graft, they cannot.

So maybe we can start here:

No earmarks until we cut enough other spending to close the deficit. Sure defense, but we should roll back disc spending to 2006, return unspent stim to Treasury, rescind all pork and spending in HCR that does not contribute explicitly to coverage, disallow patent extensions, doctors and hospitals must take Medicare, excluded corporations and unions must be in the system on day one and force the government to bid on every purchase from drugs to colostomy bags.

If Governments across the land including the Fed cannot change and make rational decisions, then the people should force them, even if they fight among themselves.
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cayuse
Soaring Eagle, soaring to Spirit from the ego self
08:49 AM on 11/16/2010
You mean limit of Lobbyist, Think Tanks, Religious Groups, Tycoons, CIA, Military

RIGHT!
11:54 AM on 11/16/2010
If you cut salaries by 10% across the board until the deficit is gone and mean it. What those people go away. Right now they are cutting 10 across the board all programs in a couple of states and the governors approval ratings are going sky high! Imagine if the Fed says salary cuts, just like so many in the private sector who had to do that to keep their jobs and worse. Shared sacrifice is needed and works.

Get re-elected without the graft!
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cayuse
Soaring Eagle, soaring to Spirit from the ego self
08:51 AM on 11/16/2010
Earmarks are senators getting their share of already appropriated funds. Much talk about nothing?
12:00 PM on 11/16/2010
Everything should be up for review when we are spending money we do not have. That Washington double speak is the business as usual people detest. Even in their own states because some are forced to take it even if they do not want it.

The people want Washington to change. And if MA., NJ and VA and the tea party are not notice enough that there is a groundswell more sustainable and durable than what swept Obama into office it may be because people are not really looking.

Here is what I learned as a youngster:
HomeEc 101, Day 1, Lesson 1: When you write a check you are spending money. When you do not that money stays in your account.
This also applies to Washington. I know hard to believe!
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unionave
Old Codger
06:22 AM on 11/16/2010
Wall Street thought up this commission , stocked it with the people they have had on their payroll , and handed out the instructions . There is a reason Simpson is no longer a Senator . If anyone thinks Wall Street is going to let the people of this nation keep 2.8 Trillion dollars in an account and not allow Wall Street to lay hands on it they must be sick . Deficit Commission means flimflam , and Wall street has hired professional flimflammer's to gain their objective . So by the time Grandma gets home and unpins her tea bag she may be homeless .
08:35 AM on 11/16/2010
Seriously? I nicked myself shaving this morning. I think Wall street did that too.
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cayuse
Soaring Eagle, soaring to Spirit from the ego self
08:47 AM on 11/16/2010
Capital Gains 90% and
Dividends to IPO investers ONLY, 0% would be fine in that case,
Stock Appreciation 39% for Stock Trader Appreciation every year. It is income
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TN60
I Hope You'll Dance
05:07 AM on 11/16/2010
When the Congress Critters cut their salaries by a huge percentage, do away with their pensions, cut out their SOCIALIZED MEDICINE health insurance, then we might talk about cutting Senior's S/S (which they never tell you that it is solvent until 2037 and adds not a penny to the deficit)

We can start by cutting the defense budget by about a third, and close some of those 700 bases and getting rid of those planes, that Gates says doesn't work and he doesn't need.

While McConnall is the appeasement monkey to the Koch's tea party, willing now to flip flop on pork spending, he will just take the pork in the form of more defense spending. Ever wonder how all those RED states along the Gulf Coast have such huge military bases and military making weapons?

One of the funniest things I read today was the brand new Repug congressman, demanding where his government SOCIALIZED MEDICINE insurance, since it takes one month to kick in.

Between the appeasement monkey and the demand for government insurance, the fun is already beginning,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45181.html ............. Funnnnnneeeeee
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09:19 AM on 11/16/2010
How about we stop paying people not to work?

Make these parasites and leeches get jobs no matter how menial.
11:51 AM on 11/16/2010
damn, i had a slime trail and did not know it!
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Raphi
11:59 AM on 11/16/2010
Preferably some menial job in that "service economy" they find so congenial. Such that they understand what life is like for the majority of Americans.

While we're at it, also make them first in line for the de facto economic draft. Let them get a taste of that "volunteer" military. Overseas for a year or more.

Where they can view firsthand the results of the policies their econopath overlords support. Let them experience the true costs-- to American servicepeople, the US deficit, a skewed global economy, the waste of resources, and the horrible impact on locals.