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Home Economics 101: George Will And Niall Ferguson Flunk

Posted: 11/06/11 03:38 PM ET

In the "Green Room" roundtable discussion that follows the taping of ABC's This Week, Arianna Huffington brought up the idea of Right to Rent. The basic plan is to allow homeowners to stay in their home for a substantial period of time (e.g. 5 years) following a foreclosure. During this time, they would pay the market rent as determined by an independent appraiser. This plan requires no government money and no big new bureaucracy. (More details of the proposal are available here.)

Right to Rent benefits not only the homeowner, but also the larger community. It prevents foreclosures from becoming eyesores and hazards for neighborhoods as abandoned properties go unmaintained and possibly become drug houses or havens for other criminal activities. By keeping the home occupied with a long-term tenant, Right to Rent should prevent the sort of deterioration that drives down both property values and the quality of life in a neighborhood. This is the sort of logic that recently led the plan to be adopted on a large scale by Ireland's government.

Ms. Huffington's roundtable partners, George Will and Niall Ferguson, quickly dismissed the proposal, both insisting that she was wrong to assume that it would be cheaper to rent than to pay the mortgage on their homes. Will and Ferguson need to review the data.

The people facing foreclosure mostly purchased their homes at bubble inflated prices in the years 2002-2007. In the most inflated markets, like Las Vegas or Phoenix, sales prices were 25 to 30 times annual rents at the peak of the bubble. If a house was purchased at 25 times its annual rent, then a 4 percent mortgage would just equal the annual rent. Of course most of the people who are underwater are likely paying considerably more than 4 percent on their mortgage. A 5 percent mortgage would put them 25 percent above the cost of renting, while a 6 percent mortgage would put them 50 percent above the cost of renting.

If we assume that property taxes are equal to roughly 1 percent of the sale price and that insurance and maintenance are another 1 percent, then monthly ownership costs can easily be twice as much as the market rent on the same house. Here are some calculations of the potential savings from Right to Rent in the nation's largest housing markets.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank day
Republican = FAIL
10:20 AM on 11/09/2011
Need more details about how this program would work.

The banks don't want to be in the rental business.

Would the Government manage these homes????
08:28 AM on 11/09/2011
you are wrong. given the length of time to foreclose, assuming there have been no payments to lender (rent on the money contract [NOT the bank's money]). Borrower could have doubled up payments to approximate any increase of interest rate. If it is simply the realization that too much was paid for the house and the payments pose no hardship, no reason to provide relief. It's not the bank that's losing the money in most cases; someone else is taking the hit. The bank does not want to own; does not want to become a landlord; does not want to pay off all other liens the current "borrower" neglected to pay while living rent-free in order to get clear title; SFRs cannot be sold as such if there are long term leases in place.
They should man up and restructure the loan which would require the owner of the loan take a charge off, require the borrower to clean up the liens, rewrite to a near market rate of interest forget about all the garbage regarding loan forbearance because there is no near term magic market bullet that's going to save them. They should ONLY modify the current loan to preserve the current lien position; anything else disturbs their rights. They could add an upside sale kicker to split profits at some percentage
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Mitchman57
I might be indecisive. But... maybe not.
12:47 PM on 11/08/2011
When the few see a profit to be made, the many had better hold onto their wallets.

The next bubble will create a whole new class of millionaires.
11:26 AM on 11/08/2011
Wow.

I know george will is right, but is he ever correct about anything?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bart DePalma
Bart DePalma
10:01 AM on 11/08/2011
As with all socialist proposals where the government seeks to direct the economy to redistribute wealth, this one has several problems:

The Constitution does not grant the government the power direct foreclosing banks to rent their property. The other Obama administration initiatives also kept running into the same problem that the government does not own and thus has no power to direct the use of these properties.

Banks do not have the ability to manage and maintain rental property. Banks will temporarily hire a management company only until the foreclosed property can be sold. Compelling banks to rent these properties long term would impose tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars of losses on the banks, which of course will be passed onto bank consumers.

Government compelled leases will destroy property market value because no investor in their right mind will buy government controlled homes. Because Sarbanes Oxely requires banks to report the market value of their assets, any bank with a substantial portfolio of foreclosed properties will become insolvent.

This plan creates fundamental moral hazards. Any rational borrower in an underwater mortgage will immediately foreclose to gain a far lower government set rent. The foreclosure crisis will be placed on steroids and all the losses noted above will multiply.

Finally, this direction of the economy will indeed require a large government bureaucracy to manage. Who sets the terms of these government imposed leases? The lease duration? Rent increases? Landlord and tenant duties?
original joanie
liberal teacher
12:09 AM on 11/09/2011
How does it feel to live in your right-wing box? No one ever accused a conservative of imagination or creativity. Money. That's all conservatives are good for. Problem solving? Forget it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
womenforaction
Julene Allen-Dell'Amor founder of Women for Action
12:45 AM on 11/08/2011
I am digging some of Arianna's proposed plan on how to keep people in their homes. It doesn't make sense that we keep so many homes empty here in Chicago for instance. There are thousands pf vacant condos, here. If and when the banks turn around and sell the homes after foreclosing on the homeowner, they are going to sell it at a much lower value than what it was originally purchased, because these homes were outrageously priced at bubble inflated prices. There is no way the homes could be turned around and resold for those amounts. Once the home forecloses, it sits. For one, it is need of repairs prior to placing it on the market, again.The banks do not care because they get their money back from the government when a loan has been defaulted on. In lieu of the previous owner they turn around and resell it at a much lower value. Morally, they should maintain the previous buyer and keep them on as a tenant and propose that they rent at the deflated cost of the mortgage.
09:06 AM on 11/09/2011
We? Put yourself right in the mix. You had 10k you borrow 90k from your aunt to get into the loan business and you have 10 condo loans @ 10 k each paying you 200.00 a month(you agreed your aunt would get 1k a month you need to earn a profit and have some expenses. 6 loans fail. Income is now 400 a month. What do you do? Ask aunt to change income along with you she needs to take a charge off you no longer can expect to receive the full 60k but only 30k from the failed loans and you have to ask her for 6k more to clean up all the unpaid sewer and municipal liens. You can make her fell better because morally she can do the right thing by sucking it up, eat 36k of her(depositors) money and accept 50 a month for the next 5 years. You write off your percentage, receive no income and have the added expenses associated with being a landlord for which you have no appetite or know how. Don't you feel better? I am sure your aunt sleeps better at night as well.
08:59 PM on 11/07/2011
Anything George Will is against is probably a good idea to be in favor of.
(gee, kinda of sound like George Will)
04:04 PM on 11/07/2011
The right to rent is a horrible idea. It violates the basic real estate lending principle of being able to collect in the event of default. The idea could work if it was enacted as purely bank/defaulter Inter Concept/Solution. But to legislate it would be a major systemic flaw in the laws of basic banking principles. It would be disaster to the real estate industry as banks would simply get out of the lending game for residential mortgages. The banks should have a had a major property management approach to their inventory however. In that sense i can can see how this would be a great idea. But not a legislated one.
02:20 PM on 11/07/2011
I am going to opine, that the banks, in their haste to quickly liquidate delinquent mortgages, exacerbated the situation, by flooding the market with real estate. Had they taken a more disciplined approach, like say..... DeBeers, or OPEC, and acted as property managers, renting foreclosed properties, and only selling off a small potion of the inventory at a time, they might have avoided taking as large a loss.

If the banks making the loans, had been holding the mortgages, and servicing them, it is pretty likely underwriting standards would have been a bit better, and the risks of default reduced. Canada didn't have the real-estate problems of the US and the UK for exactly that reason.
Secondly, the practice of buying mortgage backed securities (a long term investment) with short term paper, may seem like a profitable enterprise for a few quarters, but at some point short term borrowing costs rise, and the whole enterprise collapses.
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drbob601
Soylent Green is People
09:22 PM on 11/07/2011
They didn't flood the market. The "shadow inventory" is still VERY large.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/day-of-reckoning-shadow-inventory-distressed-properties-40-percent-of-properties-in-foreclosure/

Here in Calif, I've noticed a significant shift in the proportions of distressed properties on the MLS from foreclosures to short sales within the last six or eight months,
original joanie
liberal teacher
12:11 AM on 11/09/2011
Banks made money from foreclosure. They get tax breaks for throwing people out of their homes. They have no incentive to help people. If you don't understand the tax structure that serves large corporations, then you really can't accurately or logically opine about the mess we are in.
12:39 PM on 11/07/2011
I have to disagree with the author here. Not letting those properties that were bought at insane bubble prices foreclose is a bad idea. It distorts the market and doesn't allow home prices to come down to more sane levels. This right to rent scheme just rewards people for doing the wrong thing and by extension penalizes those who made the right choices when the bubble market was at full tilt. I will use my own example here, I'm by no means rich or part of the 1%, when the market was insane I didn't rush to sign on the dotted line for a NINJA loan or take a half a million dollar ARM. I rented. I sold my home when the market was at the highest point in 2004 and rented until home prices came down in 2008. I can't feel sorry for people who were suckered into buying homes they couldn't possibly afford, what were they thinking that the money would magically come down from the sky and they would be able to pay their mortgages?
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Gudrun
My micro-bio is empty
01:07 PM on 11/07/2011
People typically wait until interest rates come down and then refinance. Only now they can't because one spouse has lost a job or they no longer qualify for other reasons.
09:01 PM on 11/07/2011
and interest rates ain't commin down thanks to the Fed's monetary policy.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kvanness
Follow the money and the rest will make sense
01:40 PM on 11/07/2011
Did you read the article?

He said to allow the prior occupant to continue to RENT post-forclosure. Nothing about not foreclosing. Nothing about letting a delinquent home owner keep the house.

Just, rent it post-foreclosure back to the family AT MARKET RATES until it sells.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WhatsLeft
What country IS your country?
12:24 PM on 11/07/2011
Good idea but could I add one more? Perhaps communities could insist that the owners of foreclosed homes (banks/lending institutions) pay property taxes? Should they refuse to pay said tax, the county sheriff should put the home up for auction.
02:41 PM on 11/07/2011
They have to pay property taxes.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WhatsLeft
What country IS your country?
04:07 PM on 11/07/2011
They might "have to pay" but don't. We bought a foreclosed house and the taxes and water/sewer bills had not been paid. If we hadn't hired a lawyer to look over papers, we, the new buyers, would have had to foot the bills. In other words, for years (approx 2) this house sat empty with no taxes being paid.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
ruleoflaw66
And I'd opt out of 'fans' too if I could.
11:40 AM on 11/07/2011
Is Ferguson a member of the tee party?
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ruleoflaw66
And I'd opt out of 'fans' too if I could.
11:22 AM on 11/07/2011
Niall Ferguson is a Heritage Foundation type economist.
pogo
My micro-bio is empty.
10:39 AM on 11/08/2011
Harvard. Tenure.
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ruleoflaw66
And I'd opt out of 'fans' too if I could.
04:43 PM on 11/08/2011
Yes. I'm just saying that he's a card carrying neo, and Harvard is not exactly a bastion of liberal thinking--especially in economics or business.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bombadillo22
Not all who wander are lost...
11:18 AM on 11/07/2011
"George Will and Niall Ferguson, quickly dismissed the proposal, both insisting that she was wrong to assume that it would be cheaper to rent than to pay the mortgage on their homes."

Cruel indifference towards poverty and the plight of the middle class doesn't surprise me, coming from conservatives on the right who also find absurdity and snort in contempt at the concept of profoundly rich corporations paying their American workers at the least a minimum or 'living wage.'

After all, they muse, there's no reason to assume people can't make it or won't be content working for far less.
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ruleoflaw66
And I'd opt out of 'fans' too if I could.
11:15 AM on 11/07/2011
Ferguson has always been a closet neo. This latest example of his rightward leanings, should surprise no one.