Dean Baker

Dean Baker

Posted: September 30, 2008 11:53 PM

How Do You Make a DC Intellectual Look Less Articulate Than Sarah Palin Being Interviewed by Katie Couric?

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That's easy. You ask them how failure to pass the bailout will give us a Great Depression.

The odds are that your favorite DC intellectual type has uttered some dire warning like that. After all, they all heard some authority like President Bush or a highly respected news reporter make such a claim. All right-thinking people know that we just have to give $700 billion to the Wall Street crew or the economy will collapse.

While all right-thinking people might know we need the bailout, just about all right-thinking people don't have a clue as to what they are talking about.

The Great Depression story is of course the most extreme case. No one has yet sketched out the sequence of events that will give us ten years of double-digit unemployment. But hey, if the scare story helps get the bailout passed -- and gets those uneducated skeptics in the hinterlands to buy it -- why not talk about the Great Depression?

I was on a talk show today in which one of the other guests (a representative of the security industry trade group) told listeners that you can't get a mortgage unless you put 30-40 percent down. This is of course total garbage (the interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages is a very low 6.0 percent) and the vast majority of loans are being made with 10-20 percent down, but lying for Wall Street is no sin.

The host of the show was appalled to find that neither I, nor the other in-studio guest, supported the bailout. At one point he became exasperated and told me that because companies can't get access to credit they might have to lay off workers. He told me that United and GM may have to begin laying off workers next month if the credit squeeze doesn't ease.

Of course if United and GM actually do lay off workers, the credit squeeze will be a very small part of the story. The airline and auto industry face really big problems for reasons that have nothing to do with the credit squeeze, although paying higher interest rates on borrowing clearly does not help.

It is remarkable how the contemptuous comments that the elites have directed at the masses for opposing the bailout can be so much more accurately directed back at themselves. In fear and anger they have embraced a bailout that makes little sense in the context of the economic crisis facing the country. Rather than listening people who actually understand the economy (I doubt a single economist in the country believes that the bailout is the best way to help the economy) they have shouted down and shut out critics of the bailout and have been willing to spread all manner of outlandish scare stories to advance their case.

It was impressive to see the mass outrage over the bailout at least temporarily stop the bill. But, the full court press by Wall Street, the media and the entire political establishment is hard to counter. If the bill is not stopped, those who vote for it should at least be held accountable for the economic mess they create. Remember, these are the folks that couldn't see the housing bubble.

 
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Does anyone really believe that this $700 billion will EVER in any way find its way back to the taxpayer? Even in 3 - 5 years? How could they think we're that naive?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:40 AM on 10/02/2008
- DKLA I'm a Fan of DKLA 4 fans permalink

HOW ABOUT WE SPLIT THE $700+BILLION UP BETWEEN ALL U.S. CITIZENS?
THAT EQUALS ENOUGH FOR EACH OF US TO PAY-OFF OR DOWN DEBT, FUND RETIREMENTS, AND EDUCATIONS, EVEN HEALTHCARE!, let the billions trickle-up!!
NO BAIL-OUT BILL FOR INDUSTRY WELFARE!!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:29 AM on 10/02/2008
- KayT I'm a Fan of KayT permalink

If you split the $700 billion across the board. Every man, woman, and child would get about $233. Boy that really makes up for all of the job losses and lack of access to credit. Stop looking at this as a bailout. The assets that the government will acquire are valued at zero. Can you honestly say that a house has a zero value? Any house is worth more than that even in the worst neighborhood. Crazy accounting rules are making this a crisis and it is a crisis that looks worse than it is. However the cascading effect is making credit really tight. You can have the best credit rating in the world and will have difficulty getting a loan to buy a home, a car, or fund your business. That is the real problem. Businesses big and small will not be able to meet payrolls or pay suppliers.

Try thinking beyond yourself. For many that will not happen until they are laid off and cannot find a job. In the great depression, nothing worked until the government under FDR (and it took him several years to see the light) began to create jobs by building road, investing infrastructure).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:05 AM on 10/02/2008

The problem with programs like the CCC and WPA (valid Acronyms) is American unemployed aren't ready to do hard labor. There are too many government handouts and charitable organizations ready to carry them. We talk about Illegals taking all the jobs. If the American worker hadn't decided they were above that type of work (dirt farm labor) the illegals wouldn't be in this country. If American Business (people) didn't hire them they wouldn't be here. . I have been trying to get farm labor all year. No one (short ofilllegals) will even call. Don't come crying to me. If you want to eat earn it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:58 AM on 10/02/2008

$2,333 not $233!!!!! If you don't know how to divide then maybe you shouldn't be giving lectures on economics.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:30 PM on 10/02/2008
- DKLA I'm a Fan of DKLA 4 fans permalink

JUST ANOTHER PLANNED RESULT OF THE COUP OF 2000, starting with hanging chads and ending with Bush v. Gore, our votes will not be counted, it may damage the family's name.
AMERICA IS NOW LOST TO THE WAR PROFITEERS & THE UNDER-EDUCATED OVER-RELIGIOUS MASSES.
NIXON'S DREAM, fulfilled. Warrantless wiretaps, torture, secret prison's, war's and more than imagined.
THIS HAS BEEN 8 YEARS OF A TRUST FUND CHILD APPOINTED PREZ.,
DEMOCRACY LOST. who will save us from these criminals?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:10 AM on 10/02/2008
- FirstShirt I'm a Fan of FirstShirt 63 fans permalink

Yeah, too bad Gore couldn't win his own state.

Re: your conspiracy. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:54 PM on 10/02/2008

Now who do you honestly think would reform this bunch of snakes?
Definitely not Obama. He is too much of an old time Dem.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:53 PM on 10/01/2008

The Senate should resign en masse! After years of warnings that Fannie and Freddie were overextended, they wasted two weeks in a self-imposed crisis developing the worst plan possible. Perhaps they should have left their leather Washington chairs for a more considered rescue plan developed by economic experts, not pandering politicians or Goldman Sachs profiteers.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:49 PM on 10/01/2008

We are in this crisis because of an excess of artificially created credit at the hands of the Federal Reserve System. More artificial credit by the Federal Reserve will in the long term worsen the situation. I urge you to end all corporate bailouts and to help abolish the Federal Reserve System. Ron Paul

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:19 PM on 10/01/2008
- missnina I'm a Fan of missnina 4 fans permalink

Does anybody remember learning about the "Boston Tea Party"? When people were angry enough to protest and demand "No Taxation Without Representation".

Now that the Senators have betrayed us, The House of Representatives is our last vestige of hope...Now is the time for ACTION before its too late. Don't stop mass blasting the phone lines and filling up email mailboxes of your local Reresentatives - tell everyone you know. We The People need to shout louder. "We Are Here!"

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:56 PM on 10/01/2008

We should all thank God, now, for the second amendment.
Congress can run, but they cannot hide.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:51 PM on 10/01/2008
- Miguel I'm a Fan of Miguel 3 fans permalink

I see lots of people yelling about greed. Yes, there's been lots of greed, but most of it's not from the sources the typical "Demo-friendly" crowd would like to think. Obam's main financial adviser walked with $90,000,00­0.00 and the Clinton administration woman who blocked the FBI and CIA from talking to each other (helping the 911 mass-murderers) walked with 26 mil. The Demos, using Freddie Mac and Fannie May to pollute our whole financial markets for decades with millions of plainly bad loans is outright criminal. The Demos' decades-long covering for this is criminal.

Friends of mine honestly buying homes were encouraged to lie about their income by these weasels to falsely inflate loans for more pay for themselves. When 97% of all public transit train retirees in New Jersey are somehow "disabled" and therefore paid much more (disabled train engineers get $285,000 yearly on the taxpayers), we can clearly see that the "greed" is everywhere and at all levels in our ethics-challenged culture; exemplified by the entire MSM's blind hatred for Sarah Palin in their desperate turf-guarding for their masters, no matter the truth. Hollywood's vile contribution to our theft culture is not forgotten.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:36 PM on 10/01/2008
- hey0there I'm a Fan of hey0there 4 fans permalink

"i had a friend who"...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:07 PM on 10/01/2008
- Gidster I'm a Fan of Gidster 218 fans permalink
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Hey Miguel, The Clinton administration had been over for 10 months. There was no Clinton administration lady.
And it seems that the majority of malfeasance falls on the head of the Bush administration all the way back to Reagan with his lazzes faire economic principles.

However ALL Congresspersons are to blame for not stopping the banditry!

Miguel however you are hopelessly misinformed!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:31 AM on 10/02/2008
- Miguel I'm a Fan of Miguel 3 fans permalink

Jamie Gorlic (sp) is the well placed Clinton administration woman who found herself in a powerful controlling position in one of these agencies in the business of giving out the public money to unqualified "borrowers" which were endlessly repackaged and resold mixed in with good loans to unsuspecting buyers for decades). She got her position in political patronage (since she was supposed to be an intelligence person), not unlike corrupt big city political patronage machines, such as Obama's.

The criminal nature of Congress' failure to listen to warnings that emanated increasingly since 2003 and earlier is terrible and does cross party lines. In this, you are very correct.

I would not accuse others of being mis-informed until you have a complete set of facts and understand that Chicago-style machine politics is growing more vital daily in our theft-plauged society.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:52 PM on 10/02/2008
- billw8017 I'm a Fan of billw8017 34 fans permalink

Miguel has confused his Republicans with his Democrats. Firstly, the Republican take is more generous than the Democratic. The joke they tell about this is, Republicans get more because Republicans stay bought. Secondly, the FBI people who reported Arabs learning to fly the big jets without trying to learn to land them (and such reports were made from offices in Minnesota, Florida and Arizona) were told by the Bush administration to "lay off the Saudi's." Ashcroft told his briefer, mention the Arabs again and he would be fired. Condi Rice referred to the President's briefing about plans for terrorist strikes with airplanes as "historical," meaning she had heard it all before and there was nothing new in it for her. Thirdly, Fanny and Freddie went broke seven years into the Bush administration. It may have been coming since even the 1960s, but supposing it wasn't due to the Bushies, they had plenty of opportunities to correct matters. Don't tell me this administration never had ANY influence on national policy. Finally, I'm sorry your friends felt obligated to write out lies on official documents. I can imagine the anguish this must have caused their righteous souls.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:34 AM on 10/02/2008
- Miguel I'm a Fan of Miguel 3 fans permalink

First, you imagine that just because my friends were encouraged to lie abut their incomes, they did. To a person,they flatly refused to do so. They resisted the Demo derived rules that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac operated under which did not allow asking borrowers for income levels in order to give out bad loans which would have to be paid for at some future time by others. My friends are astutely honest and never lied and own their home.

To try to blame the Bush administration for 911 failures (even as the Demos attacked fervently and the Chinese were playing with our air force) is to be hopelessly out of touch with the realities of how previous administrations had gutted our intelligence community, dating back to Carter (under whom my family lost our home). These problems are not yet fixed, but short of arresting large numbers of intelligence officers, this has been addressed as well as can be done: Certainly much more so than the Clintons' ever did.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:38 PM on 10/02/2008

Bush's latest robbery of America? 700 billion. Just a blank check? Remember the billions of cash dollars that disappeared in Iraq!
The American’s are already poor. We don't have jobs. 700 billion dollars will get companies out of trouble that sent the "real" jobs overseas. Why do the American people have to keep paying for a Whipping?
Bushs' speeches are his legacy, drive them with fear! Control them with fear! Bombard them with fear! Picture this, the heist is complete, a “Mission Accomplished” banner hangs in the Rose Garden and gives an up yours speech.
President, Politicians, and Pundits are lying.
The truth is: had the market continued on without wall street crying broke the foreclosures coming to the surface would have happened anyway because the visible bad loans are 2003 through the first quarter of 2005 there’s still bad loans out there for the rest of 2005, all of 2006, all of 2007 and at least half of 2008!
Congress and the Supreme Court allow the companies that Bush wants to bailout; to rob your pension funds by changing the terms of contract negotiations, to limit your rights to your full pension. If this bailout takes place today, cutting your pension maybe a "necessary adjustment" tomorrow! Giving one man carte blanche to 700 billion is just plain stupid.
Congress needs to repeal the “Graham, Billings and Leahy act” and all legislation that assisted in any deregulation, or they will pick up the bailout check and it's, “business as usual”!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:15 PM on 10/01/2008

What, are you 6 years old?!?!
It was the Dems that so fully pushed the Bush/Paulson bailout plan while the House Repubs pushed their own BETTER plan.
But once the Dems saw all of that money (and power) in their hands come January, they put the peddle to the metal for the original crap bill.
I hope the media investigators have one scrap of integrity left and highlight the real cause of this mess.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:47 PM on 10/01/2008
- Gidster I'm a Fan of Gidster 218 fans permalink
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Both plans suck! Both plans have us paying for the tab that Wall Street's greed could not pay!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:32 AM on 10/02/2008

YA HOO!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:15 AM on 10/02/2008
- gypsy508 I'm a Fan of gypsy508 9 fans permalink

One of the underlying factors that led to the Great Depression was the sharp division of wealth between rich and poor. Now we have a crisis due to people unable to pay their mortgages. It is a lack of people wealthy enough to afford homes in the first place that caused the crisis, not banks giving out risky loans. Who else were they going to give them to?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:08 PM on 10/01/2008

It is the responsibility of individuals to know if they are wealthy enough to buy homes. They are also responsible for their own well-being, education level, chosen profession, work ethic. In short you are a product of the decisions you have made in life and it is never too late to start making good decisions and build a new life. If you are unable to, due to illness, disability or whatever, we the people should be here to help. Meanwhile, if your life sucks, change it, be responsible for your own circumstance. Or expect the government to buy you a house. For most folks, the government is the last institution we want to be in charge of our well-being. Remember Katrina?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:46 PM on 10/01/2008
- doneright I'm a Fan of doneright 3 fans permalink

In my analysis I try to confirm that the details support the larger picture. I don't have first hand access to the details of this mortgage crisis but I have listened to respected athorities in the field and the one's I have heard support the notion that this matter is serious and needs responsible action.

If you are in a theater and someone yells fire, what do you do. Most people are going to head for the exits until more information is forthcoming. Whether there is a fire may be unknown but people heading for the exits creates a truth of its own. When the stock market is primed to drop like a rock because a lot of people believe in the impending danger, I figure it is time to protect my money. Otherwise I my be holding worthless paper.

There are times when it is courageous and prudent to run counter to the flow. At other times there is little to be gained, and the prospects for disaster are too great. This may be a hard pill for most people to swollow because they had nothing to do with causing the problem. There are a lot of issues in life like that. You didn't cause the problem but the failure to respond in a way to resolve the issue only makes matters worse for you. Being a maveric or using your counter intuition is not prudent action.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:15 PM on 10/01/2008

I guess what it's coming down to is the lesser of all evils. Obama is disappointing in that he seems to be too willing to play the political game of craps rather than standing tall for what America needs. As for McCain and Palin, I'm just sick for America. I can't see how anybody in their right mind would vote for those two pathetic pretenders.

All things considered, though, Obama is clearly bright, sharp, thoughtful, deliberative. I sure as hell prefer him in the White House and I will be confident for America if he gets elected. If McPalin wins, the game is over is for America. And we're all at risk.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:07 PM on 10/01/2008
- GiannaX I'm a Fan of GiannaX 15 fans permalink
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Unfortunately, Obama has to pick his battles to win the election. Once he's in office, I think Senator Obama will prove to a highly effective leader and a force to be reckoned with.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:15 PM on 10/01/2008

Why did you characterize Obama as too willing to play the political game but McCain as a pretender? Is not "playing the political game of craps rather than standing tall" pretending? Your words. Put on your thinking cap and make an intellectual argument based on issues if you are able. Pathetic pretenders won't convince anyone.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:25 PM on 10/01/2008

The thing that stands out the most about this lesislation, quite apart from are you for it or against it, or will it or won't it work is what an adolescent level it's written at. It reads like it was written by someone who did not have access to competent professional and technical help. Forget about all those absurd add-ons.

If you gave an assignment to high school seniors to write proposed legislation to fix the finance cirsis in the US and one of them was Paulson's original 3 pages, no one would take it seriously.

But Mr. Money Bags writes it and wow, far out, and gosh. This is the best the government can do? Then we don't have a government.

Here's a question: why is fantasy more important than reality? Ans: Because it's easier to deal with, and that's what we have here. It is a complete fantasy to suggest that this legislation will solve this crisis.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:01 PM on 10/01/2008

Sparta, after pouring through the 100+ pages of the House bill, and nearly 400 pages of the Senate add-on bill, I have to tell you...Hank Paulson's naked 3 page ransom note was easily the most honest of the the three. The other two were nothing more than the same wh ore drenched in cheap cologne and bedecked in dazzling jewelry made of paste.

While we mindlessly danced around the warm, bright glow of the cathode ray tube, the wolves silently crept out of the shadows and dragged America's proverbial children into the barrens.

The next two generations of Americans will be raised by wolves.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:05 PM on 10/01/2008

If the author is correct then why is Obama supporting it? The American public does not support it so why not vote no and pick up the extra votes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:29 PM on 10/01/2008

For all of We The People that have lost our homes, our families, our friends, our health, our teeth, who do'nt even have a pair of glasses to wear, or a way to get to the doctor, dentist, therapy or rvrn the grocery store....N­O BAIL OUT!!!! tHE aMERICAN PEOPLE NEED TO BE BAILED OUT & LET THE PROSPERITY TRICKLE UP!!


THIS IS A BUSH CON, ASK RON PAUL OR DENNIS kUCINICH, THEY;LL TELL YOU EXACTLY HOW IT IS. NO BAIL OUT!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:19 PM on 10/01/2008

Its easy, Congress always reserves the right to do what, in their great wisdom, think is best for us poor uneducated, redneck, no nothing yahoos. They forget this is a representative government, they are put in office to represent our views, am I wrong? Coming from the right wing, it is difficult for me to accept that I agree with Dean Baker, but I do. The reason Obama and McCain won't oppose the bailout is any firm stand taken is subject to total deconstruction by the other side and left and right wing media. It is much safer for them to walk with the wind, even if it is blowing the wrong way. Politics as usual, it is the election version of voting present over one hundred times in the senate.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:34 PM on 10/01/2008

"no nothing yahoos" that would be know nothing yahoos

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:51 AM on 10/03/2008
- deminmo I'm a Fan of deminmo 16 fans permalink

CNN is saying the Senate is going to ok $850B.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:21 PM on 10/01/2008

IT BETTER NOT PASS THIS SCAM.!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:20 PM on 10/01/2008
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