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Dean Baker

Dean Baker

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Political Advice to Republicans on Medicare

Posted: 06/ 7/11 09:09 AM ET

The Republicans are very upset that their vote for Representative Ryan's plan to end Medicare is being used against them. The loss of an upstate New York congressional seat that they held for 50 years was quite a shock. Furthermore, groups are already using this vote in attack ads around the country to threaten incumbents.

This could be really bad news for their election prospects in 2012 since Medicare is a hugely popular program. Polls consistently show that the program has enormous public support among all political and demographic groups. Not only do Democrats and independents overwhelmingly support the Medicare program, even Republicans overwhelmingly approve of Medicare. Even Tea Party Republicans overwhelming approve of Medicare.

The same story holds by age group. Of course Medicare has the greatest support among the over-65 age group that currently depends on it, but the program even draws large majority support among young voters who hope to be able to rely on the program in their retirement. Republicans could try to extend the vote to 10-year-olds, but this route probably does not hold much promise.

Republicans can try to keep people from talking about their vote. This was the path pursued by New Hampshire Representative Charlie Bass who tried to keep television stations from running ads that said that he voted to end Medicare. The problem is that this effort runs up against the first amendment. Even a court dominated by right-wing judges is unlikely to allow Republicans to block their political opponents from talking about their vote to end Medicare in political ads.

Of course they could look to buy up the media outlets and then refuse to take the ads. They already have Fox and the Washington Post, but there are probably still too many independent outlets to make this a feasible strategy in advance of the 2012 elections.

The Republicans can try to deny that their plan actually ends Medicare and hope that voters will be sufficiently confused that they won't hold the vote against them. They have already been staking out this ground, claiming that they just want to "change" Medicare. Instead of saying that they would give beneficiaries a voucher to use to buy a health insurance policy, which would allow people to understand their proposal, they are instead saying that it is a system of "premium support," which is a term that no one understands.

This may help with a few pundits, but if the Republicans can't keep their political opponents from pointing out that their plan actually does replace Medicare's insurance with a voucher system, this silly charade will not buy them much. People know the difference between being handed a check for $8,000 and being told to go buy insurance and the current Medicare system, which covers most of the cost of most care. According to the Congressional Budget Office, this difference comes to $39 trillion over Medicare's 75-year planning period, more than five times the size of the projected Social Security shortfall.

As a practical matter, it doesn't look like the Republicans will either be able to keep their opponents from talking about their vote to end Medicare or to convince the public that they didn't really vote to end Medicare. However the Republicans do still have a third option: admit that the vote was a mistake and reverse it.

This is a rare opportunity that is still available to Congressional Republicans. Usually when we do bone-headed things we don't get a do over. We have to live with the consequences and try to make amends as best we can.

But the Republicans still control the House. They could simply hold another vote tomorrow and repeal the budget plan calling for the end of Medicare. They can probably even persuade Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to give the Republicans in the Senate the opportunity to reverse their vote on Medicare as well.

So there is it is, a simple plan that could possibly save dozens of Republican congressional seats in 2012. This is the sort of advice for which they would pay political consultants millions. But the Republicans can get it here for free. If they were smart, they would take it.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Quinxy von Besiex
My micro-bio is empty. :(
07:39 PM on 06/12/2011
As republican as seniors may often be, I don't see them going along with republican plans to seriously modify Medicaire. My dad is a dyed in the wool republican and decries Obama's "socialist" tendencies, but change Medicaire? He likes it just fine the way it is, thank you very muhc. And no, he fails to see any hypocrisy in this position.
12:02 PM on 06/10/2011
He is back. Joe Lieberman now has a plan for Medicare. Remember that he represents a lot of insurance companies in his state.

He thinks having Medicap and the Prescription D program cause people to use Medicare more. That isn't true of me or anyone I know. I hate going to the doctor and once I walk in the door I have no control over prices or even most procedure they use to test my health.

The doctors need to have a set plan for each patient's complaint and follow that to the T, then charge a set amount on that. The plan could be written up by doctors who excel in their fields.
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buckydumpster
owns "They Live" sunglasses
02:35 PM on 06/08/2011
Privatized healthcare or "the market" has produced the best most cost effective healthcare system in the world. Vouchers will enable the free market to work even better than it currently is. The Cons are totally correct on this one! Here is 5 dollars. Go out and buy yourself some groceries for this month.
10:22 AM on 06/09/2011
Government research and a few private scientists have improved healthcare.

How can you say we have the most cost effective healthcare system in the world? We pay twice as much as any country for our health care and have worse results.

There is no free market in this country for health care.

Medicare pays 80% on most costs of medical care that they approve of. They don't approve of high gouging charges. You can buy a supplemental Medicap insurance and Prescripton D insurance. Medicap helps a lot. The prescription D is pathetic. They have raised the price of some drugs so high that you can't afford not to have prescription insurance, but what they pay is very little until you get out of the donut hole.

I think I would not have insurance if I had to go back to private insurance.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Howzat
10:36 AM on 06/09/2011
Ooops the secret is out...Insurance Companies will drop you in a flash and saving Ryan's Privates Bill wont help one bit.

And if you are a granny, look forward to being pushed of the Cliiiiiiiiifffffff.
11:07 AM on 06/09/2011
Sorry, I think I missed your joke:-)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
01:11 PM on 06/08/2011
Welfare as it was created by FDR was to help the disadvantage people in the country, but it had a draw back. the way it was structured was that welfare assistance was given to the poor disadvantage mother who was raising their children, but it only could be given to those who did not have a husband to support them. If you were a single mom with children the government will pay your rent, give you food, and a monthly allotment for each child they had. The more children the more money no strings attached. This one caveat broke up the family structure, in the 1950 the black and minority community's were poor and discriminated but they had a family structure. The liberal socialist president FDR destroyed the black community and history is the judge son how how that turned out.
04:49 PM on 06/08/2011
That liberal socialist president was the third greatest president ever behind only GW and AL. He guided the Greatest Generation through the Great Depression and WWII. The Greatest Generation loved FDR. The Worst Generation loved Ronald Reagan, now what's wrong with this picture?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
09:54 PM on 06/08/2011
Ronald Reagan broke the Soviet Union brought peace and economic growth to America, FDR created a class of people dependent on the government for their welfare, basically enslaving them to the government. the difference between a liberal and a conservative is the liberals gives a hand out the conservative gives a hand up.
10:55 AM on 06/09/2011
At the time, I think welfare was a few commodities and a small check. The elderly widows had to draw welfare if their spouse didn't have a job before he died.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
11:55 AM on 06/08/2011
Dean Baker, you don't speak the truth, what you state is a "Half Truth", a half truth is a whole lie. The whole truth is the Republicans "Don't want to end Medicare", they want to phase it out over time so those like me who are on medicare can still use it because we paid into it. They want to replace it with a non-government controlled plan over time.

Let me also enlighten you to the fact that the Republican Party don't represent the republican voter, the Tea Party value closely aligns the the majority of Republicans who are "Conservative".

Gold
10:58 AM on 06/09/2011
Those under 55 are paying into Medicare from every pay check, too. Most have paid into it for 35 years. If they continue to pay in medicare for the over 55 crowd, then it is only fair that the under 55 crowd draw it too.
11:42 AM on 06/08/2011
What amazes me is that the so-called Medicare Reform Plan by Paul Ryan was crafted behind closed doors without any public hearings. The House GOP members (with the exception of 4) rubber-stamped their approval of it.

Newt Gingrich gave a logical and rational critque of the Ryan Plan during his infamous Meet the Press interview when he said "it's too racial a change". Newt also said in that interview that people should be able to "migrate voluntarily" to better systems and better solutions.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
03:53 PM on 06/10/2011
That's just like Obama care was done, politicians always work behind close doors, "We the People" don't count.
10:58 AM on 06/08/2011
We know the republicans have hated social security and medicare from the inception of these programs and the only way they can ever win this argument is if the democrats fail to be just as determined to defend the programs which is why the failure of the white house to make this clear right now is very disturbing. Caving in to the republican logic on this matter is the worst possible course of action.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
04:13 PM on 06/10/2011
I can't speak for Republican's but, as a recipient of both social security and medicare I tell you medicare is a tax-payer giveaway to the medical profession. (another government welfare program). Social Security is going broke because the politicians stole the money and replaced it with IOU's. For the record Democrats created both Medicare and Social Security, both are entitlement programs funded by the working american tax dollars and stolen by the Washington politicians.
02:08 PM on 06/11/2011
We bought US Treasury bonds with the surplus Social Security money workers paid. Those bonds are as good as any that you have in your safety deposit box or in a 401k.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Goldshield
Retired NYPD Detective
04:20 PM on 06/11/2011
Wow are you naive, If the bonds were as good you say it is, The SS trust fund wouldn't be going broke. They (the politicians) in their infinite wisdom created a Social Security "Ponzi Scheme".

Real money (defined as money you can spend) is taken out of your paycheck, (Note: SS was started under the Socialist, liberal, FDR) and placed into a Social Security Trust Fund. This oxymoron the (S.S.T.F) is not a trust or a fund it is a scam. The Real money that is place into this trust is immediately stolen and replaced with government obligations (bonds), (IOU's). The "Real Money is placed into the General Fund where the politicians (Both are guilty), but mostly democrats spend it on their "Special Interest Group" and entitlements. This fund is going broke and government is the blame but "We" bear the blame also, because we keep electing them.

If your old and on SS like I am, you have nothing to worry about, but your prodigy (Grandchildren) will suffer. That's typical of the liberal mind, they're selfish individuals whose every action always has a political motive not a humanitarian motive.

Gold
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booker52
avid reader
10:15 AM on 06/08/2011
The GOP are using the Anthony Weiner scandal now to distract the public on the Voucher Care plan by Paul Ryan.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheIndependenceParty
Cranky yankee and a rehabilitated ex-Republican
10:07 AM on 06/08/2011
They are more likely to all get tattoos of Genghis Khan on their foreheads than reverse this vote. The Pubs have the Teabaggers, pitchforks at the ready if they backtrack one iota, ...

They's rather suffer the antipathy of most Americans than call their kindergarten colleagues on the disaster this will cause next year at the polls.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
davegstein
08:17 AM on 06/08/2011
The key phrase was"if their smart"
If greed,hypocrisy and deceit are even remotely equated to smart,these guy's are geniuses...
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07:20 AM on 06/08/2011
Let them reverse it in exchange for the debt ceiling raised. Or in exchange for a repeal of the Bush Tax Cuts.
02:09 AM on 06/08/2011
Healthcare. Trickle down? Afraid not. For the last 25 years it's been cascade up. Sure, I get a raise MOST years, but I get "taxed" EVERY year in the form of higher weekly payroll assessments. Which is just like a SSI or Medicare tax only it goes to my employer. Now they want to provide vouchers to retirees to buy private insurance. Congress want retirees to battle with insurance companies just like us! Neocons want it the way it used to be: with retirees living in squaller and disabled living in overcrowded, infested institutions. Then, the Koch brothers and their cronies, will go riding off into the sunset with saddlebags dripping with our money, because Congress will then cut taxes for the wealthy yet again! I think congress needs to pay for their healthcare. We need to make hospitals non-profit again, get hospitals and pharmaceutical companies off of Wall Street. We need the insurance companies, government and my employer out from between me and my doctor. I want healthcare provided by employers to cost me nothing again, to be a real employee benefit. If I have to pay, it's not a benefit, that goes for my retirement too. It may sound good, that I have control over my costs, but that's not true. Wall Street will still make the real money. It's hard to believe that one movie sentence could set a moral compass for an entire political movement: "Greed is good".
11:06 AM on 06/09/2011
We have had the republican conservative form of government. What good have they done this country? Their silly ideas have hurt the middle class.

1. Trickle down
2. Cut taxes
3. Deregulate
4. Cut Social Security
5. Privatize Medicare
6. Bomb em
7. Market forces.
8. Freedom!

Ha ha funny, if it wasn't so sad.
12:13 AM on 06/08/2011
It looks like the Repugs are also going after social security........

2012 is really going to be a litmus test about what the people want and will put up with.
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12:12 AM on 06/08/2011
Medicare is going broke. You can do nothing which is the Demacrat plan right now or you can join Paul Ryan..... there are only two choices on the table.
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davegstein
08:18 AM on 06/08/2011
Yeah....I've heard this line before......still not working....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Slater Torret
09:47 AM on 06/08/2011
Less Taxes is better,
what do you suggest Congress does?
I would suggest there is a third option, Raise Taxes.
11:45 PM on 06/07/2011
Here's my Political Advice to the House GOP on Medicare. Stop pushing the plan that you passed in the House in April, take it off the table. And throw it into a Trash Can like the piece of garbage that it is. And then go back to the Drawing Board, bring in a broader group of people. Not just the Tea Party and figure how to reform Medicare in a way that insures its solvency for at least fifty years or so. The GOP Medicare Plan is another example of what bad legislation looks like when you just talk amongst yourselves and don't include the people that your plan would effect. Meaning Senior Citizens and people who will be Senior Citizens in the future. As well as the Democratic Senate that would have to approve any Medicare Reform plan along with the House. In order for Congress to pass any Medicare Reform plan. Not to mention the White House where the President would have to sign off on any plan. The House GOP Medicare plan represents what the House GOP wants to do and is designed for the Campaign Trail to appeal to the Republican Base in the 2012 Elections. And not designed to pass in the 112th Congress.

If the House GOP was serious about passing a Medicare Reform plan that would become law in the 112th Congress. Then they would scrap what they want to pass and work with Congressional Democrats and the White House to make happen.
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12:06 AM on 06/08/2011
If the Dem were serious, they would have presented a fiscal bill last year, a plan last year or even this year, or last week. Still no program or plan... just negative feedback..... wah, wah, wah....

If the President was serious, Dems serious, they would have a plan... leading from behind... that is the Presidents slogan.
01:00 AM on 06/08/2011
If you can't win the argument then change the subject, I guess thats your slogan.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheIndependenceParty
Cranky yankee and a rehabilitated ex-Republican
10:12 AM on 06/08/2011
I agree with you, ... "Less Texas would be a fine idea" (sic).

Tell us again the fiscal justification for lowering taxes, particularly on the Rich, ... leaving them there for a decade, ... fighting two wars on credit, ...

And only then, complaining about the deficit.

Y'all, as they say, are a hoot!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cabinetmaniac
"Without a struggle, there can be no progress. "
12:06 PM on 06/08/2011
Well put.

The problem being that Republicants are playing 'bad cop' right now and as such are being irrational.

:-]