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Dean Baker

Dean Baker

Posted: July 6, 2010 09:01 AM

Republicans: The Party of Unemployment

What's Your Reaction:

From now until Nov. 2, the Republican Party will be the party of unemployment. The logic is straightforward: The more people who are unemployed on Election Day, the better the prospects for Republicans in the fall election. They expect, with good cause, that voters will hold the Democrats responsible for the state of the economy. Therefore anything that the Republicans can do to make the economy worse between now and then will help their election prospects.

While it might be bad taste to accuse a major national political party of deliberately wanting to throw people out of jobs, there is no other plausible explanation for the Republicans' behavior. The Republicans have balked at supporting nearly every bill that had any serious hope of creating or keeping jobs, most recently filibustering on bills that provided aid to state and local governments and extending unemployment benefits. The result of the Republicans' actions, unless they are reversed quickly, is that hundreds of thousands more workers will be thrown out of work by Election Day.

The story is straightforward. Nearly every state and local government across the country is looking at large budget shortfalls for their 2011 fiscal years, most of which begin July 1, 2010. Since they are generally required by state constitutions or local charters to balance their budgets, they will have no choice except to raise taxes and/or make large cutbacks and layoff workers to bring spending and revenue into line.

State and local governments have cut their workforce by an average of 65,000 a month over the last three months. Without substantial aid from the federal government, this pace is likely to accelerate. The Republican agenda, in blocking aid to the states, may add another 300,000 people to the unemployment roles by early November.

The blockage of extended unemployment benefits promises similar dividends. Unemployment benefits are not just about providing income support to those who are out of work, they also provide a boost to the economy. Since unemployed workers generally have little other than their benefits to support themselves, this is money that will almost immediately be spent. The benefits paid to workers are income to food stores and other retail outlets.

Unemployment insurance provides the sort of boost to demand that the economy desperately needs. That is why neutral parties like the Congressional Budget Office or economist Mark Zandi, a top adviser to John McCain's presidential bid, always list unemployment benefits as one of the best forms of stimulus.

Republicans give two reasons for opposing benefits. First, they claim that benefits discourage people from working. Second, they object that the Democrats' proposal will add to the national debt.

On the first point, there is a considerable amount of economic research. Most indicate that, in periods when the economy is operating near its capacity, more generous benefits may modestly increase the unemployment rate. However, they are less likely to have that effect now. The reason is simple: The economy does not have enough jobs. The latest data from the Labor Department show that there are five unemployed workers for every job opening.

In this context, unemployment benefits may give some workers the option to remain unemployed longer to find a job that better fits their skills, but they are unlikely to affect the total number of unemployed. In other words, a $300 weekly unemployment check may allow an experienced teacher the luxury of looking for another teaching job rather than being forced to grab a job at Wal-Mart.

However, if the teacher took the job at Wal-Mart, then this would simply displace a recent high school grad who has no other job opportunities. That might be a great turn of events in Republican-econ land, but it does not reduce the overall unemployment rate, nor does it benefit the overall economy in any obvious way.

The other argument the Republicans give is that these bills would add to the national debt. For example, the latest extension of unemployment benefits would have added $22 billion to the debt by the end of 2011. This means that the debt would be $9,807,000,000 instead of $9,785,000,000 at the end of fiscal 2011, an increase of the debt to GDP ratio from 65.3 percent to 65.4 percent.

It is possible that congressional Republicans, who were willing to vote for hundreds of billions of dollars of war expenditures without paying for them, or trillions of dollars of tax cuts without paying for them, are actually concerned about this sort of increase in the national debt. It is possible that this is true, but not very plausible.

The more likely explanation is that the Republicans want to block anything that can boost the economy and create jobs. Throwing people out of work may not be pretty, but politics was never pretty, and it is getting less so by the day.

From the Guardian.

 
From now until Nov. 2, the Republican Party will be the party of unemployment. The logic is straightforward: The more people who are unemployed on Election Day, the better the prospects for Republican...
From now until Nov. 2, the Republican Party will be the party of unemployment. The logic is straightforward: The more people who are unemployed on Election Day, the better the prospects for Republican...
 
 
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04:42 PM on 07/13/2010
For all of you who are unemployed and struggling financially, take this job: Stephen Cobert of the Cober Repor, is beginning a whole new era of what it really means to be employed! A job which is meaningful and valuable:
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2010/06/25/farm_jobs_create_seed_for_colberts_work_spoof/
There are enough of these jobs to decrease the unemployment rolls substantially!
04:04 PM on 07/13/2010
We are so proud of our senators! They have represented a few people's desires as they negate bills which could assist the poor, the veterans, the middle class and education. Today's vote against extending unemployment benefits is an obvious appeal to their contributors and upper end voters.
And, while they are refusing to increase the budget for the unemployed, they are going ahead with the tax cuts for those earning $200,000 or more.
A deficit is not reduced by limiting the amount of income.......If just one Republican would acknowledge that the size of the deficit is due to 2 wars, subsidized oil corporations and cutting taxes which predominately affect upper income people AND THEN announce ways in which money could be increased in order to reduce the deficit, I would begin to believe that they sincerely want to do something.
"The latest extension of unemployment benefits would have added $22 billion to the debt by the end of 2011. This means that the debt would be $9,807,000,000 instead of $9,785,000,000 at the end of fiscal 2011, an increase of the debt to GDP ratio from 65.3 percent to 65.4 percent." (D Baker)
It's obvious who doesn't want to work in this country - the US Senate! If you can't defeat the bill, then just postpone. If you succeed at doing nothing, take another recess!
GOOD "WORK"! WHO YOU GONNA VOTE FOR???
08:40 AM on 07/12/2010
I even heard a couple of Republicans at a restaurant talking at a table and laughing at the fact that they can get people to work for nothing on their houses. They think this recession is amusing to them and they seemed to relish the thought of people's misery. My wife and I were appalled. This is a direct result of the bank bailout.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
1088
10:26 PM on 07/11/2010
Those same unemployed fools, would still turn around and vote Republican!
07:35 PM on 07/11/2010
Me thinks thou doest protest to much. Hasn't it been the modus operandi of this administration to never allow a crisis to go to waste?
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
07:02 PM on 07/11/2010
I find it really sad that either party is thinking like this--that the best way to win in November is for the US to fail in a pretty fundamental way. I also haven't got much confidence that the Repubs have any idea how to fix this any more than the Dems do--and the Repub prescriptions to fix this are more likely to pull the economy out of the ditch and push it off a very steep cliff.

We're not going to get to any sort of recovery without looking at wage stagnation--the US can't be the world's consumers if most working people have seen lower incomes even after contributing to the huge productivity climb in the 90's and 'aughts. And since people's credit cards are tapped out, the money will have to come from wages. with a fifth of the population unemployed or underemployed, there's no rally on the horizon.

I really don't think anyone in DC understands the stakes here. if consumer spending tanks further and takes down the commercial real-estate sector, we're looking at a full-blown crash. We'll be there if jobs don't start coming back and/or the 99ers are stuck out of any benefit extension.
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doctorj2u
06:25 PM on 07/11/2010
If you want to be absolutely honest, unemployment in Louisiana has never been as bad until the oil spill and Obama's drilling moratorium and the closure of Michoud due to Obama deserting the space program. This isn't the change I voted for, but it is the reality we are left with.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
isis
Job 39:5 - Who has sent out the wild ass free?
07:33 PM on 07/11/2010
Well the space program is a big cost and the GOP is scaring people about deficits. They need to think about what the cuts really mean for their constituents.
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doctorj2u
07:45 PM on 07/11/2010
"They" are not in power now. The Democrats are,
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
08:00 PM on 07/11/2010
You're lumping Obama's drilling moratorium in with the unemployment caused by the spill. Unless you can ascribe powers to Obama that include the power to survive a mile underwater, Obama didn't cause the blowout.

As for shutting down the exploratory drilling, there's a funny thing at work here--the oil companies in the Gulf don't have the resources to fight more than one big accident at a time. Obama banned exploratory drilling--there's plenty of other unsafe activity taking place.

As for the Space program, I'd think that the deficit hawks would laud him for being realistic about over-extension of the Federal Government's largesse at a time when the economy is in the toilet. But that's me.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
isis
Job 39:5 - Who has sent out the wild ass free?
11:18 PM on 07/11/2010
Exactly. I have relatives in Texas and they complain about the deficit AND about cuts that affect them. You can't have it all unless what you want is to complain. Sadly they got very used to Bush funneling money into Texas and now they can't survive without their fix of government money. He even moved IRS offices there. I wish states would simply admit when they are hooked on the government dole.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
06:19 PM on 07/11/2010
Just a quick question --

Business leaders constantly harp on the 'failures' of government and the need for someone to be business-minded in order to run anything of consequence. But US businesses have had a horrible few decades--GM and Chrysler and a bunch of retailers and computer manufacturers and real estate tycoons have gone belly-up despite all the 'smart' people running them. And many of the 'business' tycoons brought in by Bush (such as 'heckuva job' Brownie) were utterly incompetent.

Nobody graduates from managing a federal job to industry--regardless of their success. And there are success stories.
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doctorj2u
06:26 PM on 07/11/2010
It is because greed is ruling everything - government and the private sector.
10:06 PM on 07/11/2010
Businesses do fail and jobs and money is lost by the many stake holders. Customers then do business with those businesses that remain increasing wealth and employment for successful businesses. When government fails, we add another layer of government and increase taxes or the debt to pay for more failed government. I’ll take business over government anytime.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mrtinnc
Iz zhat made of chocolate too?
06:14 PM on 07/11/2010
Republicans and Democrats will debate on and on about who caused this mess, but the question for all voters this November is who has the right plan or ideas to dig us out of this mess. Will it be the republicans, who under their ideas, business were peeling off MILLIONS of jobs a month or democrats who have been inept at getting anything done in congress despite having majorities in both houses.
Republicans have done well to demonize everything about President Obama and many have bought into the Faux news simple minded distortions and lies. Democrats have done a terrible job of projecting competence or taking care of the average American- once their stronghold of support.

The Bigotry on one side and lameness of the other leaves a disillusioned electorate two disappointing choices for now. Regardless of who wins this November, Americans are fed up with these parties and a third party will emerge to focus on the needs of the people and not special interests or big business. I’m not talking about no tea party either but a Declaration of Independents!
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JBebout
11:56 PM on 07/11/2010
Congress is doing fine. It is the Senate and the endless Republican filibusters that are screwing everything up.
04:17 PM on 07/13/2010
I have yet to hear a plan for how to pay for anything in a number of years! Certainly the Republicans did not come up with any idea as to how to support and increase the necessities of Bush II's wars. These wars didn't increase employment, but the costs for many everyday items soared........while salaries were stagnant. Which all resulted in the faux economy created by the banks who were then bailed by our compliant congress.......who still doesn't know how to pay for that either!
Ineptitude is apparently contagious in DC. The Peter Principle's perfect example!
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05:57 PM on 07/11/2010
Uncertainty is killing the economy. Policy research wonks are like tenured professors. They really have no idea how to run a business, take risk to start a business, borrow money to maintain a business, tow the bottom line to make a business profitable enough to hire one additional employee, or remain solvent while the government sector hinders it's every move with wasteful bureaucracy.

This guy is a total hack.
09:32 PM on 07/11/2010
Ahh, a voice of reason in the reactive blogosphere.
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05:17 PM on 07/11/2010
Let me clue the author of this article into the fact that business' are holding on to over a trillion dollars because they don't trust this guy in the white house. Business' would start to hire if they thought they weren't going to be taxed to death. Quit blaming republicans: You have the white house, the governors and the congress. How about you do something other than whine.
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07:37 PM on 07/11/2010
Of course I blame Republicans. Thos recession was created under George W. When Obama took office, Georgy boy's economy was losing over 700,000 jobs per month. Under Obama, we have stopped shedding jobs, but have not been adding jobs fast enough. (Thanks to George for creating a horrible economythat will take more time to fix.

Would Republicans ding dongs like us to reinstitute Republican George Bushie policies that caused this Recession. That would be like asking the Captain of the Titanic to lead the Navy.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
08:25 PM on 07/11/2010
Let's see--the Senate is the operative voice on most things budgetary, and the Repubs have voted along party lines against virtually everything proposed by this administration. This isn't some big game of tennis here--the US is in the worst economic crisis since the 1930's. Additionally, there are plenty of other shoes waiting to drop--we could see gas shortages if the hurricane season shuts down drilling for an extended period. Oil prices are at historical highs surpassed only by the spike in 2008--oil prices alone kept the US mired in recession for most of the 1970's and the early 1980's. And waiting in the wings is a commercial real estate meltdown and a massive deflation of housing
(see the chart here)
http://maxkeiser.com/2010/07/09/double-dips-and-currency-wars/

The Repubs are fortunate to have a few blue dogs as cover.
03:55 PM on 07/11/2010
The misguided author writes:
"In this context, unemployment benefits may give some workers the option to remain unemployed longer to find a job that better fits their skills, but they are unlikely to affect the total number of unemployed. In other words, a $300 weekly unemployment check may allow an experienced teacher the luxury of looking for another teaching job rather than being forced to grab a job at Wal-Mart."

What an disgrace of a comment. So let me get this straight. Working taxpayers have to dole out even more money because that teacher who lost her 100k a year job doesn't want to work at Walmart???? Well tough friggin luck!!!! The economy is trying to restructure itself and extending benefits doesn't let that restructuring happen. How dare this author say this.
04:07 PM on 07/11/2010
Do schoolteachers make $100k a year? Where? My parents pay when they retired from teaching in OH (middle school and college respectively) after 35 years were $35k and $55k respectively. I don't know any schoolteacher who makes 6 figures.
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isis
Job 39:5 - Who has sent out the wild ass free?
07:35 PM on 07/11/2010
I know teachers who buy their own classroom supplies due to budget cuts but I do not know any who make 6 figures.
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GandenT
04:20 PM on 07/11/2010
You must have missed the point that there are more people than jobs, period. That's why unemployment benefits are not only necessary but completely appropriate since we still live in a society despite the best efforts of the Repugs. to divide and conquer us, the US, for their own purposes of self-enrichment through public (dis)service. But, by all means, quibble away until your meth wears off...
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05:20 PM on 07/11/2010
Fine no problem, i totally agree with you as long as they're paid for. See how easy that was?
03:32 PM on 07/11/2010
The one reason why midterms will be a bloodbath for dems. They all voted for the banker bailout while the republicans voted against it. America has awoken to the democrat frauds who make believe they are for the common folk.
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03:54 PM on 07/11/2010
I'm no fan of TARP, but do you know that it was a Republican initiative under Bush and that almost all the money has been paid back, don't you?
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GandenT
04:23 PM on 07/11/2010
Republicans historically don't pay back loans, nor do they understand the concept of give and take, so they have to keep saying "bailout" because that's also too their talking point, you betcha!
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05:59 PM on 07/11/2010
They haven't even spent all the TARP money. GM didn't pay the money back. That was an accounting trick.

99 weeks of welfare payments is enough. You want more, find a way to pay them without adding to the deficit.
04:57 PM on 07/11/2010
During our first 234 years a Democratic led government has had the best economies, GOP no they time and time again drop the ball. Historic truth, Dems have better economies than the Repugs. Imagine McCain who could not even use his own Blackberry at the helm of this economy; scares the living hell out of me. The stress would have enfeebled or killed him and then What's it's name from the land of government handouts and a 5 school BA in journalism would have tanked us for the foreseeable future.
03:28 PM on 07/11/2010
99% of dems voted for the banker bailout and 99% of republicans voted against it. Please people, explain to me how obama and the dems are for the little people and the common folk. They are for wall street. What sickens me is latinos still think Obama is on their side. The mid terms will be a bloodbath for dems and rightly so.
05:00 PM on 07/11/2010
Do you think it's hard to get a loan now? Explain to me who you would have banked with with out bailing out the banks? A loan? Ha! You, me everybody would have been up shite creek with out arms let alone a paddle.
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ywcachieve
President Barack H. Obama supporter.
07:53 PM on 07/11/2010
The bank bailout is Bush's baby. Don't be so ignorant.
03:26 PM on 07/11/2010
the GOP is against unemployment, because they are conservatives.

Conservatives want poor, homeless desperate fearful subservient serfs for their profit, pleasure and entertainment.

The liberal founding fathers wanted free education for all, including neede3d room and board.

How else do you think a Democratic republic can work?

You need happy, educated, enlightened citizens, not serfs.
03:30 PM on 07/11/2010
Tell me why 99% of the GOP voted against the banker bailout and 99% of dems voted for the banker bailout. Aside from if bush got the bailout started and Obama signed the bill, that doesn't matter. 99% of dem house members and senate members voted to steal from you and give to the banks. And you support the democrats???????? Obama was financed by wall street for his campaign.
04:15 PM on 07/11/2010
because conservatives want to crash the economy, shock doctrine and all.

the DLC new dems are conservatives,

only some of the Progressive Caucus, Dean, Grayson, Kucinich are real founding father type liberals. And they were against it.

Conservatism mantra is deregulation, the deregulation that caused Swaps to crash the economy.
04:16 PM on 07/11/2010
conservatives like Hooverviles, and LIKE homeless people, it makes them feel successful and powerful, that's the whole point.