New Report Predicts Record Wind Power Growth Ahead
A new wind power report just came out of the US Department Of Energy that bodes very well for future wind power growth. After a difficult year in 2009, record growth is expected to continue 2010-12. In fact, wind power is expected to be the biggest source of new electricity supply during the period, providing 60% of new demand. Wind power is expected to dethrone natural gas as the top source of new electricity for our country.
Turbine Prices to Fall, White Hot Growth Rates to Return
Turbine prices have increased since 2001 as demand growth has been through the roof. Turbine prices actually doubled over the seven years from a low ~75 cents per watt to ~$1.50 per watt in mid-2008. But the deep recession is inducing lower demand in 2009 (down 20-50% from the record high of 8.5 GW hit in 2008). This lower demand has allowed wind turbine supply to catch up, sending prices back toward lows of a few years ago as I mentioned a few weeks back. The grid parity I wrote may be reached by 2012 for solar was reached by wind power years ago (when the federal Production Tax Credit is included). As wind prices get more competitive and financial markets recover, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that record growth will return to the US market in 2010-12, sending demand to consecutive record highs of 10.4 GW, 11.9 GW, and 13.7 GW!
Another recent DOE report outlines a growth path to 20% of US electricity coming from wind by 2030 that has been far surpassed these past three years and by the EIA projections above. Thus, we may be able to reach 20% wind by 2025 or earlier.
Wind Farm Performance Improving
The capacity factor (percentage of time wind is producing its potential) for wind farms has improved over the years. Back before 1998, the capacity factor was in the low 20% range. Since 2005, the capacity factor has been 35-37%.
What About Solar and Other Renewables?
If wind provides 60% of new electricity demand in 2012, can solar, geothermal, and biomass provide a bulk of the remainder? My current projection is for solar to provide ~10% of EIA's projected new demand in 2012 (over 2.5 GW). If geothermal and biomass can add a similar chunk together, we'll only need a couple of new natural gas or coal plants that year (less than 20% of new capacity).
Bottom Line: Wind power has gone through tremendous growth in the US and worldwide. The EIA predict lower turbine prices and healthier financial markets will bring new record growth for the renewable electricity provider -- making wind the leading source of new power for America. If we have similar rates of growth for other renewables, our need for new fossil fuel power plants will be miniscule by 2012. Let's make it happen!
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
Follow Dennis Markatos on Twitter: www.twitter.com/setenergy
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
That's good news, but I think Rooftop Solar is going to be a much large amount of the new electricity, be3cause of the recent prices drop to 2$ per W or 3 cents per KWH.
1.85 per peak watt! retail!
http://www.atensolar.com/14.html
http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm
See my profile for more.
I am also concerned about the wind turbine, noise and small aircraft dangers, bats and some birds.
Off Shore Wind seem to be the best.
Gee! Great!
The PV cells sold here http://www.atensolar.com/14.html
only cost $38,124.80 plus taxes and delivery and they are sold only in bundles of 368 according to the web site. Someody will have to install them too and it looks like this supplier doesn't deliver packaged systems with backup storage. I guess they really don't cost $1.85 / W, do they?
So how much power do these cells develop at night? That isn't a problem, is it?
Commercial system are being done for 2$ per watt installed.
You will have to DIY for most of installation, so you will likely get about 3$ per watt installed, for about 4.5 cents per KWH. There was no intent to mislead.
38k worth of cells will produce about 17kw peak, a very large home system.
Look up the prices for GRID TIE inverters, they are as little as 10 cents per watt,
The typical house uses 2k average, which with good sun , requires about 8KW system. So you can find a neighbor and buy the system together, and each use half the panels.
With typical house financing taxes etc, it will cost about 120 per month to finance the 20k$ cost per home, replacing 170 dollars worth of 12 cent per KWH. Many places have much higher afternoon peak rates of 30 cents or more.
It's great to be skeptical, but solar really has broken through the price barrier. Don't believe me, go check and see what you can get for yourself.
For the Nth time: NO BATTERIES OR BACKUP ! GRID TIED!
Neither wind nor solar are major contributors to the US energy sector, yet. The US is lagging far behind countries like Germany, which, despite being much smaller, invest way more into renewable energy.
While the numbers look better, they are not nearly good enough. Unless we can start shutting down coal fired power plants by the scores, we are nowhere near where we need to go.
"countries like Germany"
Where chronic unemployment idles large portions of its population and economic growth is stagnant, even in good times. Just the model we want to emulate.
"A new wind power report just came out of the US Department Of Energy that bodes very well for future wind power growth. After a difficult year in 2009,"
Why was 2009 a difficult year for wind power growth? Was it the recession? because of problems getting loans from banks?
I hope not. Because, if we've hit peak oil..., or plateau oil, then I don't see things looking more rosy for wind power growth in the long run......
Great story!! Except, you failed to mention the cheapest alternative energy source available which energy efficiency. Energy efficiency can easily outstrip the pace of wind and solar development and it should going forward as a means to reduce the cost of wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, tidal and wave energy. The combination of an agressive energy efficiency program coupled to alternative energy means that there will be no need for coal or nuclear. In fact, energy efficiency alone can cut our electric demand by 40-60% according to Amory Lovins. This creates the opportunity for shuttering existing coal fired power plants when energy efficiency is linked to alternative energy development.
If you want to get real wind power into your hands, check out http://www.thirdcoastkites.com
Michigan has tremendous Wind Power potential, and given the condition of our state economy, we need to capitalize on it; thankfully our governor (Granholm) foresaw the need to diversify our state economy years ago. Though the pain of auto industry collapse hurts us disproportionately, the ground work has already been laid for Green and Knowledge Economy to replace it. Wind power companies are sprouting up all around Michigan - and we have the industrial backbone to scale up production.
Wind sports like kiteboarding is also fast growing in popularity and is not only a great sport, but is a great ambassador for Wind Power. When you feel the power of the wind in your hands, it;s truly an amazing feeing...like surfers talking about the mystical power of waves.
People interested in Great Lakes Wind Power should check out the GLREA.ORG
Time to start considering buying wind power stocks again,...
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
