Note: Derrick Crowe is the Afghanistan blog fellow for Brave New Foundation / The Seminal.
The poisonous tree of counterinsurgency continues to bear fruit in Afghanistan. Reports indicate that tensions are rising over the fraudulent election. The potential for violence is very real. President Karzai's main opponent in the election, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, has ruled out participation in a unity government and flatly stated he will not accept an election result that returns Karzai to power. A doctrine that views the situation as "with the government or against it" is dangerous and will inflame the situation.
From The Washington Post:
...tension and suspicion have mounted as the vote count drags on amid widening charges of electoral fraud. Afghans are confused, jittery and bracing for street violence -- or at least a protracted period of political polarization and drift.From the Times UK:
Hundreds of tribal elders and officials from southern Afghanistan gathered in Kabul yesterday to protest against alleged electoral fraud that robbed entire districts of their votes and allocated them to President Karzai.
In a string of searing testimonies, community leaders told of villages that had been too terrified to vote because of Taleban threats -- yet had mysteriously produced full ballot boxes. They said that most of the phantom votes had been cast for Mr Karzai, often by his own men or tribal leaders loyal to him.
"How is it that in a district which a governor can only visit once every two years, where it's too dangerous for the police to go, where even Nato can't fly -- how come there were 20,000 votes collected?" asked Hamidullah Tokhy, a tribal elder from Kandahar province.
Some of the gathered leaders went so far as to pledge armed resistance should the election commission (all Karzai appointees, led by an outspoken Karzai partisan) validate the corrupted election. Of particular worry is this pledge of violent resistance from a leader in Helmand, into which U.S. forces have pushed to attempt to challenge the Taliban:
Haji Abdul Manan, an elder from Lashkar Gah, capital of Helmand province, where British Forces have engaged in heavy fighting with the Taleban, said that most people had been too scared to venture out on election day. "In all the districts there was fraud. Nobody could vote, but the ballot boxes were full of votes for Hamid Karzai," he said.
Earlier, speaking on the podium, Mr Manan called for a violent response to the fraud, a sign that disenchantment with the polls could further aggravate Afghanistan's already bloody political landscape.
"I implore military resistance. I swear to God, if an Islamic government does not take office we're against it," he said. "The Americans are entering our houses. Our sons are being killed," he added.
Lashkar Gah is a major Pashtun population center; an uprising there would be a nightmare. It should go without saying that if anti-government violence breaks out in Helmand and other Pashtun regions independent of the incitement of the Taliban, there would be absolutely no room to argue against the conclusion that counterinsurgency has failed (I already believe this to be the case; however a widespread uprising would confirm it beyond a shadow of a doubt.).
President Obama is now ensnared in a trap of counterinsurgency's making. Should violence break out, motivated not by jihadist extremism or Taliban-inspired ultra-nationalism but by popular rejection of the legitimacy of the Karzai government, counterinsurgency doctrine will offer absolutely no useful guidance. Define "insurgency" in this situation against which we must be the "counterinsurgents." How would a counterinsurgent distinguish between a man with an AK-47 attacking government buildings motivated by jihadism versus patriotism? You can see where this is going.
P.S. Considering the history of the last eight months, now is the exact wrong time to add more troops. Prior to the last escalation, much was written about the possibility of intensified U.S. pressure leading to the re-fusion of the various insurgent factions and al-Qaida. Those concerns turned out to be prescient. Should a popular violent outbreak occur, you should expect the same dynamic to play out between those rejecting the Karzai government and the Taliban insurgents.
P.S.S. Enjoy your weekend, Mr. President.
Follow Derrick Crowe on Twitter: www.twitter.com/derrickcrowe
WHAT?
Are you trying for some 'mother of all understatements' trophy?
The Afghan civil war is into its fourth decade, and for variety, about a third of that time afghanistan has also been spiced with a couple of foreign occupations. If this is 'potential' violence to you, can you supply a couple of examples of actual violence might be, just for the sake of comparison?
Nation building cannot succeed when there is no accountability or even simple competence in the civil administration. If the coalition cannot, at the very least, audit with penalty the native government, Afghanistan will just be a really costly case of throwing good money after bad.
Bring the boys back home.
Alas, our foreign policy decisions haven't been based on strategic or tactical wisdom since the 1940s. A large chunk of Wall Street rests upon military hardware, and we've all seen how obedient Obama is to that lot.
Major General Smedley Butler USMC - 1936
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm
President Dwight D. Eisenhower - Five Star General Supreme Allied Commander WWII - 1961
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY
General David M. Shoup USMC - 1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_M._Shoup
Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex completely own the government of the United States lock, stock, and barrel as their own private satrap. They answer to no one and operate with total impunity. They will savage any politician or political party that stands in the way of their profits. This is who runs the United States from Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan. It will be endless war forever. It will take the rise of a new political party in the United States over the next 100-500 years to try to end the stranglehold over the nation. These are formidable people. Their own sons and daughters are never sent to fight and die themselves. That duty is only for the sons and daughters of the poor and now the completely sold out Middle Class. they are accountable to now one. they are the elite that personally own and personally run the government of the United States. They operate with total impunity. This was our fate as a nation. There is just too much money in war to ever stop it.
So, given the present conundrum as you present it, what does the US and NATO do? If we stay, counter-insurgency is a "failed policy". If we leave ...; well one can only begin to think about the consequences of that ... Very much a "damned if you, damned if you don't".
Seems to me that the only sensible course of action is to find a counter-insurgency plan that works - quickly. Either that or withdraw, leaving sufficient assets to allow targeting of elements (Taliban/Al Qaeda) that require dealing with (e.g., eliminating) at some unspecified point in the future.
What other alternative is there?