As President Obama's strategy review for Afghanistan commences, let's hope he's balancing the information coming to him from his happy-talking generals with some independent news reading of his own.
- While General David Petraeus serenades the major news media in the United States with the siren song of "progress," security in Afghanistan is rapidly deteriorating, and efforts in the south to win legitimacy for the Kabul government are failing.
- Hamid Karzai seems dead set on proving just how corrupt he and his business connections are.
- Efforts to transform the Afghan National Army from a carpetbagger army to a legitimate, representative force capable of keeping peace in the south are a flop.
All of these reports are clear indications that the massive influx of troops into Afghanistan under Obama failed to improve the situation in that country and very likely made it worse. The president should seize on any of the numerous signs of policy failure--from the massively corrupt Kabulbank fiasco to the collapse of security across the country--and use this strategy review to create a plan that begins immediate U.S. troop withdrawals.
Aid groups warn that security in Afghanistan is rapidly deteriorating, and they strongly dispute military assurances that things are "getting worse before they get better." According to The New York Times:
Even as more American troops flow into the country, Afghanistan is more dangerous than it has ever been during this war, with security deteriorating in recent months, according to international organizations and humanitarian groups.
...Last month, ISAF recorded 4,919 "kinetic events," ...a 7 percent increase over the previous month, and a 49 percent increase over August 2009, according to Maj. Sunset R. Belinsky, an ISAF spokeswoman. August 2009 was itself an unusually active month for the insurgency as it sought to disrupt the presidential elections then.
With one attack after another, the Taliban and their insurgent allies have degraded security in almost every part of the country (the one exception is Panjshir Province in the north, which has never succumbed to Taliban control).
While Petraeus has been on a media blitz claiming that the rise in violence can be attributed to the Taliban fighting back as NATO forces "take away areas that are important to the enemy," the Times' story makes clear that his explanation fails to address rapidly deteriorating security in parts of the country where the NATO presence is light. In fact, compared to August 2009, insurgent attacks more than doubled last month.
General Petraeus' manual on how to conduct counterinsurgency refers to a legitimate host nation government as "a north star." But over the past week, we've been treated to a sickening spectacle showing just how corrupt Hamid Karzai and his cronies really are. A real estate market collapse in Dubai rocked the privately owned Kabulbank, exposing the "investment" of hundreds of millions of depositor assets in palatial homes on Palm Jumeirah off Dubai's cost, handed out to friends and family of the government. As media attention zeroed in on the bank, we learned that presidential campaign contributions were given to Karzai by Kabulbank in exchange for naming a major shareholder's brother (a notorious war criminal) as his vice presidential running mate; that Karzai's brother, Mahmoud Karzai, sat at the center of the scandal; and that key campaign advisers had become major shareholders in the bank. Now government forces and security guards are beating people away (literally) as outraged depositors seek to get their money out. Karzai's inner circle was implicated so thoroughly that now the U.S. is backing off its repeated pronouncements of the importance of rooting out corruption.
In short, we lack one of the prerequisites asserted by Petraeus' own doctrine for success under the current strategy in Afghanistan, and we've stopped even really trying to construct one.
Southern Pashtuns Stay Away from ANA
Another of the key components of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is to create an army with a sizable enough southern Pashtun contingent to allow the security forces to operate in the Taliban's traditional strongholds without being seen as an occupying force from the north. According to The Wall Street Journal, that effort is failing:
Recent initiatives to recruit more southern Pashtuns into the Afghan security forces...appear to have backfired.
In January, southern Pashtuns accounted for 3.4% of recruits that month, falling to 1.1% in July and 1.8% in August.
Last month, just 66 of the 3,708 Afghan recruits were Pashtuns, U.S. officials said.
Overall, Pashtuns account for 43% of the Afghan army, but very few of them are from the south.
Afghanistan's recent history is fraught with internal strife between factions and ethnic groups, including a nasty conflict between those forces comprising the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. Pashtuns in the south likely aren't going to take kindly to the presence of a U.S.-backed force made up of northerners. The fact that the security forces can't recruit southern Pashtuns speaks volumes about the failure of efforts to persuade populations in the heart of Taliban territory to support the Kabul regime.
There's No Time Like the Present
Giles Dorronsoro, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, just returned from Afghanistan with a stark warning:
"Washington wants to weaken the Taliban by beefing up the counterinsurgency campaign to the point where the Taliban will be forced to ask for amnesty and join the government. But the Taliban are growing stronger and there are no indications that U.S. efforts can defeat the insurgents...
"Since last year there has not been one serious element of progress and the situation will not improve without a strategic recalculation. ...In a year, the Taliban will not disappear as a political force or even be weakened militarily--the longer it takes for negotiations to begin, the harder it will be for the coalition to carry out the best possible exit strategy. ...In the coming months, the American-led coalition needs to declare a ceasefire and begin talking to the Taliban. While negotiations could be an extremely long and fraught process, the sooner they begin the more likely they are to achieve results."
Every individual factor listed above would be a body blow to the premises of a counterinsurgency strategy according to General Petraeus' own handbook. Taken together, they've exposed the Afghanistan War as a brutal fiasco that's not making us safer and that's not worth the cost.
The American people, recognizing the futility of spending more U.S. lives and dollars on this failing war, have turned solidly against it, with nearly six-in-10 saying they oppose the war in CNN's most recent poll. The president should keep that in mind as we approach our own midterm elections here in the U.S.
We can't wait until July 2011. Those troops need to start coming home, now.
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