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Hillary's 2012 End Game
By Wednesday morning, Hillary and Obama will up neck and neck in popular vote, give or take 100,000 votes between them.
That means the pressure will be on for him to make her his running-mate.
But she may not be interested. In fact, she will likely turn down recruiting efforts. If you take the Clintons at their word Obama is doomed to failure so why would she want to go down in flames with him this fall against McCain?
It's not like she hasn't made this perfectly clear. Her feelings about Obama's inadequacies have been articulated and broadcasted for months.
She has said he is an untried rookie who shouldn't get the nod and can't beat McCain. Her character assassination has been subtle but effective: The reference to Bobby Kennedy. Her doubts about his beliefs, (he's Christian or so they tell me). Her attacks on his manhood. Her husband's description of Obama's entire campaign as a "fairy tale."
All these statements and others will be generously splashed across Republican ads this fall to the point that some voters, who only wake up to their democracy during elections, may actually think she is McCain's running-mate.
Joining the Obama teams means she will have shot herself in the foot beforehand.
So what emerges is what I believe is the Clinton no-lose strategy.
They have used Obama's unelectability as their excuse to continue running against him even though they cannot win because, by saying he's unelectable, they help in part to bring about his defeat.
His defeat by McCain would make them look really smart and also set them up for the nomination and run in 2012. This is based on their professed logic that only Hillary can win against McCain; McCain will be a one-termer because he will be decrepit in four years and there will be a job vacancy in 2012 for the White House.
The tricky part for Hillary will be to appear to be a team player if she declines the VP slot or isn't even asked. Obama will offer both of them something in return for a few stump speeches made in between long absences from the campaign due to "exhaustion."
That's why this week will be great fun to watch because the delegate arithmetic simply doesn't work after Tuesday. And the real Hillary will be revealed in one of two scenarios:
If she becomes Obama's running mate, which makes sense to most Democrats, it will be because she never believed a word she said about his unelectability in the first place. And once in there, she and Bill will also make his life, and presidency should he win, miserable, according to former advisors like Dick Morris.
If, alternatively, she rejects offers to become the running-mate or play a major administration role, then she really believes Obama has no chance, she is not a team player and is willing to have Americans endure one term of McCain so she can take up White House residency in 2012.
Take your pick.
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Damned if she do....
"....If she becomes Obama's running mate, which makes sense to most Democrats, it will be because she never believed a word she said about his unelectability in the first place. And once in there, she and Bill will also make his life, and presidency should he win, miserable, according to former advisors like Dick Morris...."
{Isn't DM the Clinton Adviser who, while talking to the President, asks the prostitute in bed with him if she'd like to hear the President's voice? How can a scumbag like that have any credibility with anyone, even the MSM? }
And damned if she don't ...
"....If, alternatively, she rejects offers to become the running-mate or play a major administration role, then she really believes Obama has no chance, she is not a team player and is willing to have Americans endure one term of McCain so she can take up White House residency in 2012.
Take your pick...."
Hillary's popular vote claim is simply not true. There have been good articles on Huffington and once I saw MSNBC dispute Hillary's popular vote lie. To get this Clinton-liar math, approximately 7 caucus states are excluded. MSNBC disputed this Clinton lie, but other main stream media let the lie continue, or do not refute it as often as they run Hillary's popular vote claim. (the media is just so mean/unfair to Hillary?!) This Hillary lie counts Michigan and gives Obama a goose egg. We all know Obama would get some votes in Michigan, let alone all the lies Hillary creates about ; agreeing to MI. not counting, but I really did not mean it........
The article on Huffpost indicated that including the 7 caucus states, that Hillary excludes, Hillary may trail in the poplular vote by over 1 milliion or more. Give her Fla. & MI. and she still trails in the popular vote.
Hillary math - does Puerto Rico count in the General Election?
Hillary math - does popular vote or Electoral votes determine the pres. winner?
Hillary math - are not the rules of this primary a winner by delegates?
Hillary fans - with Hillary/Ickes in the driver's seat in creating rules at the start of the campaign, rules they felt favored them- they way things have played out; WHO IS REALLY MORE READY FROM DAY 1?
The tricky part for Hillary is that if Obama loses this fall, a lot of his supporters (myself included) will be as angry with her as her supporters are with Obama. We will look at the exit polls, look at how many white older women, for example, went over to the other side because of her repeated gender card plays, and begin organizing immediately (b/c a lot of the grass roots organizers are Obama supporters) not only to deny her any chance at the 2012 nomination, but to unseat her from the Senate as well. Unlike Lieberman in Connecticut, if she loses the Democratic primary in NY, she's toast, and we may support an independent against her as well, just to make sure. If her supporters decide a term of McCain is just 'punishment' for alleged Obama 'sins,' our attitude is going to be: "why not two?" So to Hillary supporters in advance, if this is the plan, we're letting you know: WE told YOU so.
Once Obama obtains the nomination, the responsibility of bringing people to his cause is his, and his alone. This idea that Clinton will be responsible for Obama's downfall, if it happens, is just childish. Either Obama is the mass-appealing candidate that his followers claim he is, or he's not. After the primary, he's the nominee, not Clinton.
And what about that threat of yours? So if older white women or rural voters or Hispanics don't turn out in numbers high enough to satisfy your arbitrary benchmark (what exactly is the percentage, 50%, 60%, 99.9%?), you'll put a political hit out on Hillary Clinton? That idea is as unDemocratic as it is insane.
What's happened to the Democratic Party? When did they become the new GOP, expelling moderates and centrists from the ranks to bow to the whims of the lunatic left fringe? Disrespect centrists at your own peril: there's more of us than you. You may not have jobs to go to, which gives you a lot of "grass roots" time on your hand, but we'll trounce you in elections any day of the week.
bakossi ----
If this isn't proof of the speculation that a lot of right wing Republicans are traveling under the Democratic flag in order to destroy Hillary. This is the exact mind set they have. "Do it MY WAY or DIE" Makes you wonder how Democracy is expected to work. They're like a bunch of cockroaches crawling all over the HuffPo. How are we supposed to work together when people like you are part of the mix? You've got to be a Pug in Dem's clothing. Democracy is not about killing the opposition, it's about trying to win their support. You're not going to win anyone's support with talk like that. We'll support the Democratic Party in spite of you, not because of your threats.
Incidentally, what are you going to do when the Republicans start sliming Obama?
Just read this from Telegraph.Co.UK (on Drudge Report)! Hum...Someone has to pay Clinton to play, huh????
..."Negotiations are understood to be taking place between the Obama and Clinton campaigns about the Illinois senator helping to repay some of the massive debt incurred by his rival. One of Hillary Clinton’s donors said that the former First Lady’s campaign was as much as $40 million in the red.
In a conference call with major donors this afternoon, contributors were told by Harold Ickes, a senior Clinton adviser, that she was unlikely to pull out of the race until the issue of her massive debts was resolved. The New York senator has lent her own campaign at least $11.5 million.
One source close to a major donor said: “It’s not about the vice-presidency or any other position she might get. It’s about the money – in particular the Clinton family money.” The Obama campaign might have to reach deeply into its well-stocked coffers in order to secure the full support of Mrs Clinton and her husband Bill in the November general election.."
So what? There are hate mongers out there who will try to keep us at each other's throats. Resist! That was then, this is now. Besides, it's against the law for Obama to pay Hillary's debt. Period. He can only help her to organize creative fundraisers, etc. It's a party tradition and all who care will participate, if for no other reason than not wanting small business people to be stuck with unpaid bills.
Third scenario:
She could be quite content to let the DNC split and go down in flames so the DLC can finish taking over the Democratic party.
She would be just as happy being a behind the scene power broker ala Cheney and his handlers, even if she doesn't get to wear the crown.
this scenerio is so close to the truth that it is downright scary. What may trip her up however, is the Vanity Fair article...which despite protestations, probably hits a lot closer to the truth than most are willing to say, and will leave her (and him, if she keeps him around) busy trying to put out fires and do some fancy hiding of holdings, etc.
Bravo.
I have been imagining a slightly different version of this situation, which is still a win-win for Hillary. Mine doesn't require that she run for VP....she just agrees to back off in return for some other high position...healthcare czar or Supreme Court justice or something like that. She has already damaged Obama to the point that she can't do much more harm, and she has inflamed her crazy people so that they won't vote for him even if she tells them to. But, hey Obama might win anyhow.
And she can't be expected to campaign for him because Hillary does not campaign for presidential candidates....remember 2000 and 2004 where she and Bill sat on their hands and waited for Bush victories so they could keep the seat warm for her;
If he loses, she is well positioned for 2012; if he wins she will get her consolation prize.
The losers will be the rest of us for allowing the Clintons to prove once again that they (like Bush) live for the sole purpose of getting away with stuff.
I must disagree. If Obama loses, Hillary is NOT "well positioned for 2012" --she will be blamed for McCain's victory, and rightly so. McCain WILL appoint 2 (or possibly 3) Supreme Court justices who WILL overturn Roe v. Wade. McCain will also finish stacking the rest of the judiciary & the DOJ with "loyal bushies' (or the McCain equivalent) which will make any democratic presidential victory in the forseeable future impossible.
Furthermore, if Obama loses, Hillary will face a serious backlash from the Democratic party itself: there is NO WAY in hell she'll ever again be a viable candidate for president.
Exactly! You my friend are a brave person who obviously refuses to be fear driven. Bravo! Someone once said something like, "Cowards die a thousand deaths, the brave person dies but one."
Hillary should quit the party and go Independent. She could win it, she could.
That would be great
Only if you are a McCain supporter. If she ran as an Independent, the Democratic Party vote would be split and more than likely McCain would get the White House and Hillary would become the most hated person in America. Her political career would be over and I think she is smart enough to know that. Though there is a chance that her blind ambition might cause her to overrule her intellect.
Don't bet on it. She is so universally reviled by Reps and there are Dems who will be very angry if she continues to sabotage this election.
LOL!
The math simply isn't there. You forget that little detail of her insurmountably high negative numbers. If fully half the population dislike her, that means the entirety of the other half that does would have to vote for her and no other candidate. In a 3-way, that's not gonna happen.
If she tried for Independent in 2012, enough of the Dem faithful wouldn't jump ship to join her, just the most hard-core disenfranchised Clintonistas. Plus, they've already shown that core cannot give her the financial backing she needs to be competitive. She and Bill wouldn't -- couldn't -- leave the party (I know, I know -- "the party left them") because if they did, she'd not get any party backing from anyone. Except... maybe the Libertarians???
Ahh, thank you for being another brave soul who is driven by logic and logically disdains endless, mindless, fear driven scenarios.
Her team has looked at running independent but recent polling from her campaign suggests that too much of her base would fall away, She will most likely put things in stand-by mode, work behind the scenes to sabotage or take over the convention, AND hope that some nut shoots Obama. With the Clintons you really have to assume to worst and hope for the best, presidential politics is hardball as you've never seen it. She was on the board of Wal-Mart and enjoyed campaign money from media magnate Rupert Murdoch, so she plays both sides, as one must.
2012?
How many former Democratic Presidential Nominees - or those that failed to get the Nomination have been invited back by the DNC to give it another run?
None that I can recall in recent memory.
This isn't the Republican Party - in the Democratic Party - it appears you get one chance at the nomination and the White House - if you don't win you go in the DNC scrap heap.
Precisely. So now we are discussing the "inevitability" of Hillary in 2012? Unbelievable.
Exactly!
That whole Makey Nicey thing bet start real soon
Why? Obama and staff don't make plans based on what Hill and Bill may or may not do. Why should we? It's simple. Don't respond to anyone who writes silly fear driven articles such as this one, or to someone spouting hate who claims to be a supporter of either campaign. That phase is over. Move On. Those who cling to pasts hates are not useful. We need to focus on defeating McSame. Past hates take us out of the moment and we lose our focus. That's just plain silly.
True Obama supporters soothe their angry fears and deligently try to remain serene. We can only have compassionate regret for those who choose the other path and move on.
Hillary doesn't need us to demonize her. She does a good job on her own. She'll throw her grandmother under the bus if it means moving into the White House. Take the blinders off , Hillary supporters , the woman's shameless attempts to keep this thing going at everyone's expense says volumes about her. For weeks the math has told the story. Only in Hillary land does reality not count. She's forced the entire Democratic party to go along with this charade because they can't afford to anger her supporters; make no mistake though, they've all known it's been over for weeks and have been placating her supporters.
"The tricky part for Hillary will be to appear to be a team player if she declines the VP slot or isn't even asked. Obama will offer both of them something in return for a few stump speeches made in between long absences from the campaign due to "exhaustion."
My guess is that Bill and Hillary will actively undermine the Obama campaign in the general election. The animosity they displayed to those who supported Bill's eight years in the WH is mind numbing. Then they disgustingly courted the Bush bigots to continue the race. They have the hubris to slander most of the party and then run as Democrats in 2012.
His handlers were able to get Reagan elected to a second term, even though his Alzheimer's was beginning to show. If elected, McCain would probably have to be incapacitated to not run for a second term. That doesn't mean that Hillary couldn't clock him in an election. She's shown she's mean as hell when she's in a fight. On the other hand, she might join him in 2012 as a running mate so she can lock on to the nomination in 2016. She's friendlier to McCain than she is to her fellow Democrats.
So, essentially, what you're saying is that regardless of what she chooses to do at this point, you will always find a reason to demonize her. You people honestly have NO SHAME. Does your irrational hatred of Hillary Clinton have any bounds??
If she takes the VP slot, you will have a reason to hate her.
If she doesn't take the VP slot, you will have a reason to hate her.
Bottom Line: It's fruitless trying to pacify the rabid hate of people like you. Regardless of what she chooses to do, you will still find some way to make it all her fault.
Regardless of what Hill chooses to do after this week, she'll always be a has-been.
A parallel statement:
"You say that if she does X then you'd dislike her, but if she doesn't do X, you'd still dislike her, therefore you are irrationally prejudiced."
If X = "eating pancakes for breakfast", this would absurd, and with X = "taking the VP slot", it is still absurd. I hope it isn't fruitless to encourage you to take a deep breath and consider that dislike fr Ms. Clinton might have some reasonable basis -- even if that dislike has become intense enough to lead to fearsome rants, like this one.
There is a shipload of legitimate rational reasons that people are sick of, or "hate" as you refer to it, Hillary Clinton. For those of us who have opened our eyes, ears, and minds, there has been an endless stream of behavior, actions, statements since the end of last year and ramped up 1000 times since Super Tuesday that have clearly pointed out as fact 95% of any of the charges made against HRC. Yes there are some like Chris Matthews who were way over the top in their behavior towards her, but they are the exception. HRC has run a despicable campaign and has made any thoughts of good feeling towards her or her husband from before this campaign a distant memory.
Klondiker,
She wrote the book on shameless, her supporters are well aware of what she has done to Obama in this campaign and they condoned it. They have the gall to continue to say it was Obama that was underhanded, and that's shameless because they know he wasn't. So, you people can rant and rave all you want about about his inability to pull in the whites, PR abd hispanics, Clinton put those labels on them and those same people will see just how things go when Mcsame is elected.
The right wing will be on Mcsame back about immigration reform, watch how fast that fence goes up, then watch how fast he cut spending for women related projects, only to build up the military program, then whatever is left over he will split between causes. These people are so naieve they claim they can handle 4 years of Mcsame we will see..
Why would Hillary have any better chance in 2012 than she had this year. Won't everyone be even more sick of the Clintons then they are now - especially since we will, rightly or wrongly, remember her as responsible for the party's defeat in 2008? And hopefully even her feminist base will rethink their strategy of rallying around a woman who owes her prominence to her husband - a big mistake both in principle and, it turns out, in practise.
"especially since we will, rightly or wrongly, remember her as responsible for the party's defeat in 2008?"
Speak for yourself. There are at least 18 million dems who will solely and exclusively give that honor to Barry.
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