Hillary's 2012 End Game

By Wednesday morning, Hillary and Obama will up neck and neck in popular vote, give or take 100,000 votes between them.

That means the pressure will be on for him to make her his running-mate.

But she may not be interested. In fact, she will likely turn down recruiting efforts. If you take the Clintons at their word Obama is doomed to failure so why would she want to go down in flames with him this fall against McCain?

It's not like she hasn't made this perfectly clear. Her feelings about Obama's inadequacies have been articulated and broadcasted for months.

She has said he is an untried rookie who shouldn't get the nod and can't beat McCain. Her character assassination has been subtle but effective: The reference to Bobby Kennedy. Her doubts about his beliefs, (he's Christian or so they tell me). Her attacks on his manhood. Her husband's description of Obama's entire campaign as a "fairy tale."

All these statements and others will be generously splashed across Republican ads this fall to the point that some voters, who only wake up to their democracy during elections, may actually think she is McCain's running-mate.

Joining the Obama teams means she will have shot herself in the foot beforehand.

So what emerges is what I believe is the Clinton no-lose strategy.

They have used Obama's unelectability as their excuse to continue running against him even though they cannot win because, by saying he's unelectable, they help in part to bring about his defeat.

His defeat by McCain would make them look really smart and also set them up for the nomination and run in 2012. This is based on their professed logic that only Hillary can win against McCain; McCain will be a one-termer because he will be decrepit in four years and there will be a job vacancy in 2012 for the White House.

The tricky part for Hillary will be to appear to be a team player if she declines the VP slot or isn't even asked. Obama will offer both of them something in return for a few stump speeches made in between long absences from the campaign due to "exhaustion."

That's why this week will be great fun to watch because the delegate arithmetic simply doesn't work after Tuesday. And the real Hillary will be revealed in one of two scenarios:

If she becomes Obama's running mate, which makes sense to most Democrats, it will be because she never believed a word she said about his unelectability in the first place. And once in there, she and Bill will also make his life, and presidency should he win, miserable, according to former advisors like Dick Morris.

If, alternatively, she rejects offers to become the running-mate or play a major administration role, then she really believes Obama has no chance, she is not a team player and is willing to have Americans endure one term of McCain so she can take up White House residency in 2012.
Take your pick.

Comments

[Futumpsh]

So,

Obama cannot beat McCain in Nov.
Clinton cannot beat Obama in the primaries.
but
Clinton can beat McCain in Nov?

"She has said he is an untried rookie who shouldn't get the nod and can't beat McCain."

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that she was saying the exact same thing late last year with her name in place of McCain's. How'd that turn out?

[mickeyrat]

you know, one of the proofs of the political naivete of Obamabots is the above post.

Let me introduce you to politics, FUT.

A party contains a variety of views. Hillary's are more centrist (in theory, though Obama's actually a neocon) than Obama's. So a lot of leftist Dems voted for Obama.

BUT, the entire country isn't leftist, it's more centrist. So it's ENTIRELY possible that Hillary could lose the nomination to a perceived leftist, and win the general election on the support of centrists.

It's the political naivete of the Obamabots that worries the most. They think that since Obama won the nomination (based, of course, on caucus and red states, not on primary votes) that that means he's the stronger candidate in the general election.

What a bunch of naifs.

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

"They think that since Obama won the nomination (based, of course, on caucus and red states, not on primary votes) that that means he's the stronger candidate in the general election."

there is no evidence what-so-ever to prove that hillary is the stronger candidate. there is plenty of evidence, however, to suggest that she will be a lightening rod for straight-ticket republican voters in the ge. I don't understand why y'all continue to ignore this. half the dems voters don't like her, and most of the republicans voters don't like her. and that's the stronger candidate?

[drkazmd65]

Ms Francis:

"If she becomes Obama's running mate, which makes sense to most Democrats",...

Which "Most Democrats" would those be? The ones that supported her for the Presidency to begin with?

Most of the rest of "Us Democrats" that I know think that Hillary Clinton becoming Barak Obama's VP makes absolutly no sense for the reasons you already list in your post. Also - What demographic or swing state can she add to the mix that Obama + some other regional pick (Webb, Sebelius, Richardson,...) doesn't already add to Obama's appeal?

Hillary Clinton as VP makes practically no sense for Obama.

[wingman1]

Diane,
life isn't as simplistic or black-and-white as your article suggests. I don't think you have really looked at the whole picture of this, or understand the nuances, pressures and dynamics of this situation at all. You are seeing it in Kindergarten terms.

[mom2sons]

He won't offer her the VP. He won't offer anything of any real consequence. He has left Hillary and Bill on their own. He knows the party is behind him and is now the head of the DNC. Once he places his supporters in key positions within the DNC game will truly be over for the Clintons. They have overplayed their hand this time. LOL

[alleykat]

Holly women like you simply amaze me. Clinton has divided the party since starting this race and has done everything to bring Obama down including using her "women supporters" who are in this for the gender race. Women who are bitter like her. The irony of this whole thing is that she has been able to USE all of you women. I am a 53-year-old white woman, x- republican who jumped the fence for Obama because I am tired of the same old thing. (Take your pick , Clinton or McCain) You have let a woman USE you that says she is for women, yet stood by while her husband victimized women for decades. Oh, wait a minute she didn’t stand by, she helped victimize them. Instead of kicking his butt out the door years ago she stayed because she needed his help to further her career instead of making a life on her own and her own merits. Don't preach to me girl because I have no respect for HRC and I have no respect for the women who support her!
Obama won this campaign by playing fair. He could have brought a whole book out on the Clintons and did not stoop to that level (unlike her) so that the party did not become even more divided.
Holly while you are waiting for the space ship and drinking the kool-aide, do it in the shade because you are becoming as delusional as your candidate.

[fanchon1288]

Thank you alleykat. She helped him and everyone knows she helped Bill cover up more of his bull crap.

[Oldchef]

The Clinton's deeds and words these last 3 months have effectively doomed any chance she might have had for a Vice-Presidential spot. The best thing they could do for the party and for their own ambitions is to get the hell out of the way and hope that over the next few years people forget how ugly and divisive their actions were in the last stages of this primary season.

[bellecloche]

If Clinton is only preparing to run again in 2012, then she should have spent more time not dismissing the younger voters of 2008. Those in college now will be out and working, and those just under 30 will be over 30 and becoming the sort of soccer moms and dads her husband relied on in the 90's. Oh well, she's never been very good at planning ahead... or math...

[sassafra]

uhhh....no.
people are expecting a civilized ending chess match marked by a mumbled "check-mate" by one and a sagging of the shoulders of the other and a proffered hand.
what we're going to see from obama is a kicking over of the chess board in that he's not even going to offer hillary the vp spot which will most likely go to edwards as my guess.
the clintons are already old news, obama/edwards or someone equally exciting would be unstoppable.

[drkazmd65]

Obama doesn't really have to "kick over the chessboard" - he has outmanuvered the Clintons already. They have been checked over and over again, and at least stalemated. Game over for all practial purposes.

Hillary Clinton can't win without changing the rules,... Obama can win (and probably has won) under the current rules. Barring some meltdown before August Hillary Clinton is DONE.

[Laserbeam]

Obviously you haven't leanred or observed much of Senatori Obama. It is not his style to "kick over the chessboard", as you phrase it. However, I can easily imagine Senator Clinton doing so.

Peace out.

Obama '08

[sassafra]

*laughs* i see you really didn't grasp what ms. francis was getting at.

[fraziersview]

I think the pundits, the bloggers, and arm chair quaterback analysts should all take a beak and let the votes make up their minds about which candidate to supprt or whether a joint ticket is a vaible or productuve option. It is imperative that the Democratic Party find a way to unite and move forward and that may include compromising on a joint ticket. As your article states, it is clear the party is pretty evenly split between these two candidats. It is also clear that both Obama and Clinton seem to be decent people, who are both intelligent, strong, and capable, and whom genuinely care about this country and its people. It is time the Party leaders take their cues from the voters, not the media. A joint ticket appeases most Democrats, while negating the oppostions ability to take advantage of the party's division.

[fairwitness]

"If you take the Clintons at their word..."

That's, I think, a faulty assumption on which to base an analysis. It's been abundantly clear that "their word" is fiction.

[demfriend]

After all of the clinton's "reasons" Obama cannot posibly in anything for her to stand up and "support" him will seem a bit nuts to most as she will be painted a "liar" from before or she "erred in judgement". To have the clintons stand behind him will have many thinking the knife in the back is waiting to happen. To even ask her to be VP will be fatal to all as she has done the above in spades already. Maybe the best thing will be for the clntons to vacation somewhere like Puerto Rico until next January.... I doubt that any of the whacko people who will always claim Hillary job a bad break or would never ahve voted for Barrack in the first place will support Barrack because Hillary says to. After all she has spoken more highly of John McCain than she has ever spoken of Barrack Obama.

[daddyG56]

Sorry, Diane, but any post that contains the words "according to Dick Morris" is automatically filed under BS.

[Umungus]

Thankfully he is strong enough to win without her help. It's a fair bet to say she won't campaign too hard to help get him elected, but that's okay. When he wins, she'll finally know it's over.

The bonus being that her model for winning elections will be dead for a while. I'll be glad to see it go.

[Peddler]

Misery loves company, and Obama is smart enough, both mentally and politically, to distant Hillary from himself as far as he possibly can. She has lost, and will support in effect just like they both supported Al Gore. The concept that Obama cannot defeat McCain in November is a myth, and when he defeats McCain, that will be the icing on the cake for the Clintons. As far as her attempt to run in 2012, that is dreamable, but after her campaign with Obama, will never happen. In as much as age should not be a discriminator in any election, she is going to be 3 years shy of McCain's........and their is serious doubt among American voters already. Her political career is shattered.......she will be lucky if she gets relected to the Senate........much less running again for President. She has damaged herself and the Democratic party tremendously, and although they may never remember what she said specifically, the Democrats will never forget what she did. The Clinton's political influence and power will end on Tuesday........and a new era will begin. The Clintons might want to team up with Jimmy Carter and give back to America what they so rutless took away.

[johnwinner]

The Clintons have backed themselves into this corner; unfortunately, they assume that it has all been 'politics as usual' since 1968, and cannot see the changes that have taken place, that are taking place. Hillry 's career is over. Even if she just runs for senate again, she will lose. So one good thing coming out of this nightmare: We won't have a Hillary Clinton to kick us around anymore.

[BubbaC33]

Obama has used the word change often, but has not given any specific details or anything of substance. No one knos what he intends to change, how he will do it and how much it will cost.