Hillary's 2012 End Game
By Wednesday morning, Hillary and Obama will up neck and neck in popular vote, give or take 100,000 votes between them.
That means the pressure will be on for him to make her his running-mate.
But she may not be interested. In fact, she will likely turn down recruiting efforts. If you take the Clintons at their word Obama is doomed to failure so why would she want to go down in flames with him this fall against McCain?
It's not like she hasn't made this perfectly clear. Her feelings about Obama's inadequacies have been articulated and broadcasted for months.
She has said he is an untried rookie who shouldn't get the nod and can't beat McCain. Her character assassination has been subtle but effective: The reference to Bobby Kennedy. Her doubts about his beliefs, (he's Christian or so they tell me). Her attacks on his manhood. Her husband's description of Obama's entire campaign as a "fairy tale."
All these statements and others will be generously splashed across Republican ads this fall to the point that some voters, who only wake up to their democracy during elections, may actually think she is McCain's running-mate.
Joining the Obama teams means she will have shot herself in the foot beforehand.
So what emerges is what I believe is the Clinton no-lose strategy.
They have used Obama's unelectability as their excuse to continue running against him even though they cannot win because, by saying he's unelectable, they help in part to bring about his defeat.
His defeat by McCain would make them look really smart and also set them up for the nomination and run in 2012. This is based on their professed logic that only Hillary can win against McCain; McCain will be a one-termer because he will be decrepit in four years and there will be a job vacancy in 2012 for the White House.
The tricky part for Hillary will be to appear to be a team player if she declines the VP slot or isn't even asked. Obama will offer both of them something in return for a few stump speeches made in between long absences from the campaign due to "exhaustion."
That's why this week will be great fun to watch because the delegate arithmetic simply doesn't work after Tuesday. And the real Hillary will be revealed in one of two scenarios:
If she becomes Obama's running mate, which makes sense to most Democrats, it will be because she never believed a word she said about his unelectability in the first place. And once in there, she and Bill will also make his life, and presidency should he win, miserable, according to former advisors like Dick Morris.
If, alternatively, she rejects offers to become the running-mate or play a major administration role, then she really believes Obama has no chance, she is not a team player and is willing to have Americans endure one term of McCain so she can take up White House residency in 2012.
Take your pick.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Anyone with a functioning brain not addled by Kool Aid can see Obama is destined to be a disaster for Dems. Our best case scenariop is that he loses in November to McCain. Our worst case scenario is that he wins, is steamrolled for 4 years ala Jimmy Carter and guarantees a Reagan like swing back to the right in 2012.
That's why 11,000 GOP plants selected him in Iowa and took him from a real 3rd palce finish with dems to an artificial first. The best startegy now is simply to minimize the damage an Obama presidency would do to dems long term chances.
BS, EinChicago. Utter and complete BS.
I concur...
You want to say: Anyone can see that Obama is BLACK." - well, anyone see that, most of us just have no interest in archaic racism anymore, which is why we are voting Obama, the candidate with superior wit and judgment, and a plan to unite the party and the nation again
Yeah. Except I live in Hyde park and my wiofe is black. Let me introduce you to reality; the world in which 80% of dems have rejected Obama not because of the presence melatonin in his skin but because of the lack of any susbtance in his politics.
"That's why 11,000 GOP plants selected him in Iowa and took him from a real 3rd palce finish with dems to an artificial first. "
Yes! Exactly! You have hit on the secret plot! And that is why people like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, and FOX news in general have actually been saying good things about Obama and encouraging their people to cross over and vote for him in the primaries. Uhm, except wait a minute they haven't. They've been supporting Senator Clinton. The right has been salivating waiting for another chance to run against a Clinton and bring up Whitewater, TravelGate, Lewinsky, Whitewater, plus a whole new set of pseudo scandals: Bosnia, Peter Paul, etc.. Thanks goodness most dems have come to their senses and are voting for real change.
They switched to HRC only after they had already put Obama in as a spolier. The goal was not to get HRc selected or Obama; it was to divide the party. Obama finsihed 3rd in Iowa once those 11,000 GOP voters is subtracted
she's hilarious. she's losing the primary, but she says that she will win the general. okey dokey.
Perhaps that's because she has had more people voting for her than voted for John Kerry. And alot can happen before November.
Absolutely!! Hell, Hillary might even turn into a real Democrat by then.
Great unity move. Lets set up an imaginary situation and ascribe selfish motives for Clinton and then describe how either choice she should make turns her into a disloyal democrat or a liar. First of all, there is no way that Obama can pick her as his running mate and not have most of you Hilary haters still support him. He will come up with something that will put the fighting between the camps to bed. If the Obama camp wants to keep fighting Hilary rather than face Mcain, they do so at their own peril. I am not sure if this posting is out of habit or the hate held against Clinton can not be contained. It may just be that you are trying to lay the foundation for passing the blame should Obama fail at the general election.
The Obama campaign stopped campaiging against Clinton after NC and IN (the Gas-Tax gimmick). Since then, he has only gone after McSame. The Clintons have more or less continued to campaign against Obama. The real reason he can't select Clinton as his running mate, besides the fact that she's already burned too many bridges with all her divisive comments, is that she represents Washington politics as usual and he is running a "Change" candidacy.
If, alternatively, she rejects offers to become the running-mate or play a major administration role, then she really believes Obama has no chance, she is not a team player and is willing to have Americans endure one term of McCain so she can take up White House residency in 2012. That's my pick. due to the fact Hillary made a statement one time,she did not care what people said memories are short people forget. Her main goal is to be president,even if it is not working to unite the party at this time. The fact the Clintons did nothing for Gore really makes me feel Obama is on his own when it comes to help from the Clintons. She feels in 4 years if Obama does not win, the half of the dem party she alienated will be willing to support her especially after possibly 4 more republican years.
"The fact the Clintons did nothing for Gore really makes me feel Obama is on his own when it comes to help from the Clintons."
Considering how badly the Clintons have mauled their own reputations, lack of "help" from the Clintons might be a blessing..
Frankly, I think the impact of the fanatical core Clinton supporters is way over estimated. It's a much smaller group than the Clintonistas would have us believe.
I honestly don't think Obama needs the Clinton people and would actually do better without them...
I am still "praying" for a Clinton Independent run. That would really tickle me.. :D
Michale...
I agree with you, Michale. I believe the overblown, militant, Clintonista "army" is really a relatively small segment with blatantly loud, discordant mouths. I also believe that Republican shills regularly infiltrate Dem blogs and media appearances, purporting to be discontented Dems, but with no purpose other than planting GOP smears designed to weaken and destroy Obama. The media is completely complicit, gleefully fanning the flames-- example: bully Pat Buchanan. MSNBC allows him to rage and dominate every conversation regarding Dem political news, drowning out all pro-Democrat debate.
Instead, Repubs need to be out dealing with their own problems--example: Bob Barr. McCain's got his own set of Achille's Heels. Once Hillary is eliminated, Obama's excellent team can fully devote their talents to exposing each and every one of them.
One just has to look to the "throngs of supporters" who did NOT materialize for the weekend Rules & Bylaws meeting or to the "million plus voters" who did NOT materialize in PR as in your face examples of the true measure of support there is for HRC. I also believe that there are many of the 17+ million who did vote for her originally, who now regret that vote (i.e., Ohio voters who were sold the bill of goods about Canada/NAFTA). I am a WF, 52, former HRC supporter, who voted for and supports Obama because HRC lost my support and vote with her attitude, actions, campaign and divisive crusade. I hope that the fervent HRC supporters remember their reproductive rights, gay rights, civil rights and other real issues when considering a defection to McNut (supreme court judges are lifetime appointments ladies). Obama '08
Obama is on his own...He doesnt need the help of the Clintons, although, he is respectful enough to include them...act
Hillary as of wednesday.
I dont feel she is his best choice for VP. She and Bill would have to be FULLY vetted, past and present...
To all Clinton supporters, I am sorry you have truely been misled. You need to ask yourself if you truely can risk you childrens future and yours and vote McCain, or write in Hillary out of spite.( spite IS the only reason for such distructive action) I believe that most Americans are bigger than that.
Please dig deep into your common sense.....
Older white woman...us
It never ceases to amaze me how so many keep thinking this November will be another "close" election where America is divided 50.01 to 49.99. We'll probably have $5 gasoline. The rotten, hated Iraq war will still be fattening fatcats pockets. A 25% approval rating, or less, will still be given the "GOP" president. Our economy will be sputtering under the weight of high gas and oil prices. On and on the bad news continues but the pundits keep thinking that no punishment will befall the GOP
in the presidential election for any of the bad news---that GOP McCain faces a razor tight election or maybe even can beat Obama by 3 or 4 points even. WHAT? The GOP ain't gonna win the presidency even if the Democrats run Homer Simpson. Don't believe all this crap that pundits are pushing that it will be a tight election. Hillary knows the Democrats will win handily this November is why she won't give up. The tight election nonsense is sold by the media because it benefits them to call it a tough election to gain viewers of the "epic battle". Epic my butt. The Democrats are going to roll over the GOP
and take no prisoners. The GOP has made utter fools of themselves under Bush and the former
GOP congress. It's over for the GOP, don't buy this tight game hoax.
If anything about this primary has been taught, it is that Democrats don't have a problem with using GOP tactics if it suits their needs.
On the one side, we have the Clinton camp begging a GOP Senator to hold hearings into the DNC practices and using Karl Rove's polling data as gospel.
On the other side, we have the Obama camp parroting the GOP's 2000 stance that the popular vote don't mean diddley squat...
For the record, I am supporting Obama to date, but com'on! All political partisanship aside, ya'all just have to love the irony, eh?? :D
Michale...
If the media would have been objective and given the less commercial candidates (like Biden and Richardson and Dodd) equal coverage to Hillary and Obama instead of belittling their campaigns, then we would have had a candidate with more real experience and suitability. But Obama and HRC sold more newspapers and drew more viewers, and reporting the news is not about the news, it is about business.
The Democrats tried the "less commercial candidate" approach in 2000 and 2004 and what did that get us? Eight years of Bush. If Biden and Richardson and Dodd couldn't even excite the Democrats, how exactly would they win in the general election?
Though I agree that once the race narrowed to Obama and Hillary, the press played it as being much closer than it actually was in order to maintain popular interest and boost their profits.
However, when the race started, Obama drew LESS press attention than either Biden, Richardson or John Edwards, all of whom were seen as more likely to be Hillary's chief competitor.
It was voters in Iowa - not the press - who decided that Obama was worthy of more coverage.
The Clinton camp did adopt GOP tactics - from misleading ads to personal smears - which is one reason she lost. Hopefully McSame will use similar dated and unwelcome strategies, helping to assure an Obama win.
As for Obama saying that the popular vote doesn't mean diddly squat (something he hasn't, in fact, said), the rules of Democratic primaries dictate that the metric used to determine a winner is delegate totals, not popular vote. Were the winner to be determined by popular vote, Obama might well have adopted a different strategy.
It's kind of like football team A scoring the most points, only to have team B say that they should have equal claim to victory since they controlled the ball the most time, or gained the most yards. They'd have a case, if only for the rules of the game.
In any case, Obama has no reason to downplay the importance of the popular vote, since it appears he will win it. Hillary only leads when caucus states Obama won aren't counted, and MI and FL totals (disputed elections) are.
There is no irony when someone sticks to the rules, as Obama has done. Just a well-run, historic campaign in which a little-known outsider defeated someone who started the primaries with a boatload of money, a slew of pledged delegates, total name recognition, and a popular former president as her chief surrogate.
Now, it's time to teach McSame a lesson or two.
"As for Obama saying that the popular vote doesn't mean diddly squat "
I never claimed that.
I claimed (and it's true) that Obama SUPPORTERS have made the claim. And they have.. Right here on the pages of HuffPo..
I agree with your post however. As I have stated in previous postings, Obama ran a great campaign. His biggest asset was being able to play WITHIN the rules rather than try and CHANGE the rules, as Clinton did.
But I calls 'em as I sees 'em... Obama supporters are quoted as stating that the Popular Vote doesn't mean anything. I am not arguing the validity of that statement, as it is dead on balls accurate
I simply point out the irony that these same people vehemently and (sometimes violently) said just the opposite in the aftermath of the 2000 election.
Being a political agnostic (NPA) allows me to see both sides objectivel
Michale...
"It's kind of like football team A scoring the most points, only to have team B say that they should have equal claim to victory since they controlled the ball the most time, or gained the most yards. They'd have a case, if only for the rules of the game."
"You know what separates the winners from the losers?"
"Yea. The score"
-Gene Hackman & Keannu Reeves,THE REPLACEMENTS
:D
Michale...
Michale, sorry but I really don't get this: "On the other side, we have the Obama camp parroting the GOP's 2000 stance that the popular vote don't mean diddley squat... " This is the primary not the general election. Primaries are determined by delegates. Even trying to count the popular vote in a primary is impossible since lots of states have caucuses and don't even collect a popular vote at all. Also, for the record the scandal in Florida, and Ohio four years later, was not that the electoral college over rode the popular vote. It was that through voter suppression, ballot chicanery and other dirty tricks, the votes counted in particular states were manipulated to be different than what they actually were and hence the electoral college votes were awarded to the wrong candidate (i.e. Chimpy).
The concept is the same.
Regardless of whether or not it's a Primary or a General.
Either the Popular Vote counts or it doesn't...
In the case of the Primaries AND the General, the fact is that Popular Votes do not count for anything.
In the primaries, the yardstick is delegates and in the general the yardstick is the Electoral College..
Regardless of how you choose to characterize the "scandal" of Florida (and your characterization is valid) the simple fact is many Democrats put forth that Gore won because of his popular vote total..
Michale...
Here's a fourth scenario. Hillary decides she can't afford to quit fighting despite repeated warnings from Reid and keeps going all the way to the convention, where her opponent is finally confirmed as the official nominee of the party.
Reid, in order to preserve the power of his office carries through on his previous warnings and removes Clinton from her committees. He instructs all committee chairs of the Democratic caucus in the Senate to not cooperate with Clinton on any legislation she wishes to author or co-author, and every move she makes to introduce legislation dies in committee. Seeing how utterly ineffective she has become, when the time comes for her re-election, she is roundly defeated, losing her senate seat to a challenger. Her political career is over.
And the 17 Million voters that supported her go gosh golly gee, I guess will have to just go along with Reid and stay in the Democratic party and do whatever they say. She will probably not take the stuoid ruling on giving four of her delegates to Obama in Mi to the convention. You need to get over the wet dreams about humiliating and defeating Hilary and her supporters. You need them in the fall against Mcain.
Ummm...I'm pretty sure that Hillary, her advisors and some of her more math-challenged supporters have humiliated and defeated themselves with little to no help from third parties.
Why do all the Hillary supporters appear to be low information voters? Oh wait, I just answered my question.
She keeps going because life has taught her not to give in. She has a husband who cheated on her publicly and repeatedly, and she made him president. They toughed out financial scandals. Close friends were sent to jail. Bill lied to every person in this nation on national television, and yet he survived impeachment. As a punishment, he can't practice law, but still he makes a hundred million as an ex-president. They move to New York, and she leapfrogs over every Democrat in line and becomes senator.
So of course she thinks they can still pull this thing out of hat.
And, let's face it, this race is not far from being a tie.
But that scenario about her running in 2012 if Obama loses is nonsense. She will be old. Her base will be old. Obama's base will blame her.
Most of all, having lost the nomination to a rookie, the Clintons' biggest selling point will be gone: electability.
You don't seriously think the fat cats are going to write her big checks like they did this time around do you?
As Elvis sang, "It's now or never."
The last time a Democratic nominee took his defeated rival as his vice-presidential candidate was JFK/LBJ in 1960 and that turned out to be a fatal mistake.
Yes, I mean it.
Disgusting post...bot
She's dead to me.
Unbelievable how this played out, really; it will be studied for years and has in the process altered the cultural landscape in ways that by definition mean there's no turning back - for better and worse, frankly, but mostly better IMHO.
Now, in terms of the main theme of this election season, one thought: any actual lasting positive change can only occur when sufficient numbers of people wake the fuck UP and take the reins of their own lives and quit looking to surrogates to deliver them to salvation - which is of course counter to how most people seemingly make their decisions and is therefore the real meta problem to focus on in our society, but that's another story, yo.
There's a third option: No VP slot (we don't wanna tempt the girl too much to take out a sitting prez) and she campaigns for Barack like it's 1999 ('cuz if she doesn't, then half the party - maybe more - will see a McCain win as Hill's doing and boot her out).
Whatever else might be said about Senator Clinton, I'm still holding out hope that she's a loyal Democrat, and that she'll turn on a dime once she's finally out of the race and give Senator Obama the support that he's earned. If not, she might as well make a formal switch to the Republicans for all the political future she'll have left.
From the moment Hilary Clinton endorsed John McCain over Barak Obama in the famous "commander-in-chief test" soundbite, she made it clear that she is NOT a team player. She staked everything on grabbing the nomination this time. If she fails - and it sure looks as if she is failing - her aspirations to be the Democratic candidate for president, or indeed to hold any national position for the Democratic party, are dead. That's one of the reason's she's carrying on so desperately.
What we fail to realize is that 2012 is the overtime. What did the Clinton's do for Gore in 2000? Squat. Kerry in 2004? Squat. If Bill had stepped down when he was impeached but not removed from office, if he had given true support to his vice-president, the democrats would have been able to stay in the White House. Kerry in 2004? How much support did they give Kerry and the party they love? "Ahh, let them suffer for four more years." They will be begging for Hillary and she will have the senate "experience".
Obama was one they did not see coming. When she failed to beat him on super Tuesday and he won 11 straight, they could do the math. They just could not do as much damage to him if she left the race. They have been running a 2012 game ever since.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
