Low Gas Prices May Doom Automakers, Sustainability Expert William McDonough Warns

"Clearly this is an opportunity, not just a crisis moment," sustainability expert William McDonough told me. McDonough is one of Time magazine's Heroes of the Planet. I caught up with him -- no mean feat, by the way -- to find out how this global visionary would reimagine the auto industry, if Congress had the horse sense to ask him.

Why solicit McDonough's opinion? Because this architect and author is no stranger to Detroit or the greening of industrial processes. The last time I spoke with him we were walking on the world's largest living roof, the 10-acre marvel he designed for Henry Ford's iconic River Rouge Plant. He also collaborated with Ford on the Model U -- a car whose basic elements can be recycled again and again.

You've said the United States should be on a war footing against cyclical gas prices.

Bill McDonough: Cyclical gas prices must be recognized and understood as pernicious. It is a pattern that's lulling us to sleep. Have you noticed how the price of oil drops whenever renewable alternatives gain traction? All they have to do is drop the price of oil for one month to destroy those investments. From my perspective, Congress should say, "Look, folks, get used to $4 a gallon because it's a good thing. And here's why it's a good thing -- because when we set the price at $4, we can take the spread and use it to deploy indigenous energy, rebuild the transportation infrastructure, and create jobs."

But ultimately you want to ditch the internal combustion engine, right?

The whole world should drive electric cars powered by the sun. That doesn't mean we can't celebrate oil as a gift from the past. However, oil is capital. And like business capital, the last thing we should be doing is burning it up. Oil is incredibly valuable and should only be used as feedstock for recyclable products.

That's a tough sell -- electric cars would require a whole new infrastructure.

I'm talking about anticipatory design science. The idea is to anticipate the future, and design as if it mattered. That's what I'm calling for here. Automakers can't turn on a dime, but they should be able to turn on a quarter. Now, you may be thinking, "Ask the entire nation to commit to electric cars? You're crazy, Bill." Am I? They're already doing it in Israel. If they can do it, we can do it.

Was Israel's aim to get off oil?

In 2005, the World Economic Forum posed the question, "How do you make the world a better place by 2020?" For Silicon Valley entrepreneur Shai Agassi, the answer was to get Israel off of oil. Agassi took the cell phone business model and applied it to electric vehicles. His company offers one convenient plan that includes a car, a battery, and access to a recharging infrastructure. Israel and Denmark are Agassi's first customers. It's looking like Australia may be the third. Israel will also manufacture their electric cars -- in partnership with Renault and Nissan -- to create thousands of local jobs.

How did Agassi solve the battery problem?

He separated the battery from the vehicle. Nissan's new battery can be pulled easily out of a car, so service station attendants can replace a spent battery quickly -- in roughly the same amount of the time it takes to fill a conventional gas tank. A wireless network will tell drivers where batteries can be replaced out on the road.

Is it reasonable to expect Madison Avenue can put an electric car in every driveway?

In Israel's case, the government will be putting a substantial tax on gasoline vehicles -- and zero tax on electric cars -- to encourage people to make the switch.

But doesn't a sustainable auto industry necessitate more than getting off oil?

Automakers also should be looking at materials, and water usage. They should design cars that can become cars forever -- vehicles that are completely recyclable. Leathers should act as biological nutrients. Plastics should recirculate through the polymer chains. I would like to see a car put together with a glue that disadheres when the car is dipped into enzymes that tell the glue to let go, so we can disassemble cars quickly and recycle them cheaply. Water should be cleaned as part of the manufacturing process. It's too valuable to be discarded.

On a lighter note, you've called cars fun and romantic.

In my opinion, cars are the fourth place: you have a home, an office, cafe society for hanging out with friends, and a car. A car allows you to get inside, listen to your favorite music at your own volume, and go wherever you want to go. There's nothing else like it.

Is an oversight panel the best way to avoid missing this opportunity to get off oil?

I hope anyone put in a position of counsel to the auto sector will have the vision to see what's happening in the world of design and deployment. This is the time for massive change. The car is an amazing thing. It's worth figuring out how to get it right.

It's a tough moment for everyone involved in the car business.

We should wish everybody in the auto sector well. These are difficult times, and it's going to be hard to rise to the occasion. We need to be sympathetic. But that doesn't mean we should encourage the automakers to do what they did before. What did Einstein say? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results.

Comments

[Organic-Guy]

Contrary to popular rhetoric, oil has never been a free market commodity. The price has never reflected supply and demand.
The up and down cycle of energy prices is, as Barack Obama pointed out, "The trance we are in."

The latest down turn in prices are another response from the oil companies to our world's desire for non-fossil fuel alternatives to our energy needs. One thing that might help us escape the trance this time is that most people are now aware that you can't talk about energy without addressing climate change, health care and war at the same time.
The price we pay for energy has never been truly reflected at the pump. Health care, pollution clean up, waste hauling and storage and war are all costs that need to be taken into consideration when thinking about the cost of energy. If these costs were to be considered we would easily see that even now with gas prices at the pump as low as they are, alternative energy sources are already at parity with conventional sources and have been for some time.

[ObjectiveRealist]

The really, REALLY environmentally responsible route would be to convert existing cars to electric motors and batteries, which can be done.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/neil-young/so-you-want-a-big-electri_b_145077.html
GM, Ford and Chrysler *could* continue to make a profit, adjusting their assembly-line efficiency to these post-production modifications, but they are not likely to do anything so intelligent until entrepreneurs cut even farther into their sales.

[bluejay10027]

It is plausible that within 5 years a family will have a Hybrid car and an EV car in their garage.

The EV will be safe for "commuting" if it does 50 miles on a charge with speeds up to 55 mph. Currently, EV technology is getting 3-4 miles per 1 kilowatt of energy. Assuming 4 miles per kilowatt, it will take around 5 ½ hours to charge on a 120 vAC circuit at 20 amps.

If you drive more than 50 miles or go on a "Journey", a hybrid will be required. Charging on the road will not be practical. If you spend a few minutes in a spreadsheet, you will understand what I"m talking about. By the way, watts = volts x amps.

For some families, it will make more sense to own two EVs and simply rent a hybrid when going on a journey.

[LibbyLoon]

I think it's going to be way more difficult to replicate Israel's ambitious policies in the United States. The US is huge, Israel is the size of my thumb.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Fair enough, but Agassi is about to test his concept in Australia, too. Here's the link:

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/21315/1176/

Thanks for reading!

[Overtone]

Conversion of revolutionary, never before commercialized, sources of energy, such as the Zero Point Field and ambient heat, will make possible electric cars that need no batteries. They will generate cost-competitive electricity that can be sold to local utilities during peak demand hours when the vehicle is parked. No wires needed. As these systems move into mass production, all future cars could be electric cars with unlimited range.

See recent articles on our website: magneticpowerinc.com for more information. Scientists and engineers may enjoy the piece entitled: Perpetual Commotion.

[hydroman5000]

Silk Napkins for Lunch

Let me be forward and to the point. I have seen fist hand what goes on with an Executive Position running the big "3"and what their days consists of. Most of you would be shocked and some may not.

The problem is that they look for Harvard Degree individuals with job trails in the automotive industry. They look at the industry now and not what it can be. The big "3" have not pursued Hydrogen Technology because nobody else was publically expressing interest. So the Japanese secretly develop Fuel Cell Stacks on a more feasible scale and the Big "3" stand there with their pants down and says, it"s not viable and Lithium Batteries is the way to go.

Oil Producing Countries will continue to lower production rates to falsely raise market value so that we can built their infrastructures. If you think that $5.00 per gallon was high last summer, wait until you see what is coming.

I hope that President Elect Obama can put the campaign contributions from the UAW aside and look and the real problem. $28.00 per hour for assembly and $33.00 for skilled is ludicrous. The Union was needed years ago; they are now putting a choke hold on our Life in this Country by their Contract Demands and Benefits. The UAW needs to be abolished.

[Arthur954]

There is room for adding taxes on US gas --- in Europe gas is taxed a lot more.
I wish that there was a way of RETROFITTING some improvement on the immense fleet of existing cars, maybe some different type of fuel : gas plus something else ( bio - something ) I thing we should proceed in stages towards the goal of oil - free cars. A next step could be for Detroit to make hybrids with a biodiesel engine combined with electric .....
Also, Detroit could make stylish sedans with these new technologies ... good proportions cost the same as poor ones the Prius is not very good looking by the way. Lets do it better in the US, using as a template of good proportions the best European sedans : take a look at the new CITROEN C5 : gorgeous !

[Mikecroft]

Yeah, four bucks a gallon for gas is painful to think about, but if gas prices stay high permanently, the marketplace will dictate fuel efficiency, not the government. CAFE standards have been a joke for years, and this move would make CAFE regulations moot. Plus, the government is too busy writing checks these days to bother with writing more regulations.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Toyota will debut a battery-electric car at the International Auto Show in Detroit next month. Here's the link:

http://wardsauto.com/ar/toyota_debut_electric_081222/

[KillTheMessenger]

The article states it's a "concept", which is automobile speak for "this will never be built the way we show it and you can call yourselves lucky if we will ever build anything that's even similar". At this moment I do not see a major push for electric automobiles. Even at $8 per gallon of gasoline efficient ICEs and hybrids are economically and technologically fully competitive. And since they are still far more versatile vehicles than fully electric cars, they have a very strong market edge.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

On Monday, the Chinese firm BYD Co. will begin selling the F3DM, an electric car with a range of 60 miles on a single charge. (It has a small gas engine as a backup, in case the charge runs out.) Warren Buffett is an investor. The F3DM is slated to be sold in the U.S. in 2011.

One thing is clear: the premise of an electric car is far from dead.

Thanks for reading!

[KillTheMessenger]

If I may point out... Europe has had high gas taxes for virtually forever. There is absolutely no connection between the price of oil and the political will to enforce energy conversation. Europe can do it when the price of oil is low and it can do it when the price of oil is high. Americans, it seems, simply can't do it, no matter from which direction the wind blows. There are very important historic, technical and sociological reasons for why that is so and until we solve these underlying problems in our country, changing the system from short term to long term planning will be elusive.

[runfastandwin]

I think in LA the car is the 2nd place, after home, but still a good notion to make cars completely recyclable. I have had plenty of cars that fell apart without the enzyme (there's one in my carport right now as a matter of fact...)

[docgirl0425]

Great article. Loved the car you can dip in enzymes. I've had a few American cars in my time that seemed to do that already. Without the enzymes!