Post-Convention Democrat Dip: D.C. Street Polling Serves Up Doldrums

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Political activist Tom Hayden and I have two things in common: we both attended the University of Michigan during the Pleistocene era and we both think Barack Obama will probably lose the 2008 presidential election.

For Hayden, the reason Obama will lose is simply this: a white war hero will always trump a black candidate who's talking about the economy. That's a seductive soundbite. But is it true?

There's no denying Obama's poll numbers are lackluster. Michael Barone of U.S. News & World Report said before the Democratic convention that "it seems pretty clear that Obama has lost some ground, though exactly how much is unclear."

For me, there's only one way to find out what ordinary Americans (not pundits) are thinking about Obama these days: hit the bricks and ask them -- just like Jon Stewart admonished me to do weeks ago.

Lookin' For Night Owls
Inside the McDonalds on 17th Street, in the diverse Borderstan neighborhood of Dupont Circle, four young boys are growing restless as they wait to place an order. (What are they doing here at 10:30 PM anyway? Where are their parents?) I grab a Premium Roast Coffee (never mind the hour) and hightail it to a corner booth where several Gen-Xers aren't shy about expressing their increasing disillusionment with the Democratic candidate.

"The novelty's wearing off," labor union economist Peter Greenberg, 32, told OffTheBus. "And I doubt I'm the only one wondering whether the Democrats picked a wonderful but unelectable candidate."

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For these young professionals, the more mainstream Obama becomes, the more he loses his distinction. They want him to dole out tougher medicine on the economy. "The baby boomers bankrupted the country. Obama still hasn't explained to me how he's going to fix this mess," said book distributor Mike Huling, 33, who is sitting on our booth rather than in it.

These Gen-Xers are less jazzed about the candidate than they used to be, which should raise a red flag about their motivation to vote in November. "Obama's deserting the people who got him the nomination. It's like watching a football team play it safe -- too safe to win," stock trader Matt Briner, 33, said.

The New York Times kinda knew this was going to happen: "We are not shocked when a candidate moves to the center for the general election. But Mr. Obama's shifts are striking because he was the candidate who proposed to change the face of politics, the man of passionate convictions."

In August, pollster John Zogby reported that Obama's margins among younger voters (ages 25-34), city dwellers, and women dropped by as much as 12 points. It was a kick in the pants.

Anna Dinenna, 41, a much-younger-looking mother of two who's worried her teenage son is headed to Iraq, is voting for John McCain. "I'm afraid of an immediate troop withdrawal," Dinenna says. "Those young people are depressed. They're traumatized. They're on meds. Is America really ready to take care of them in one fell swoop? I think it's dangerous to even try, dangerous for the kids and their families."

Sixty-five-year-old cashier "M.H." told OffTheBus that for her, the problem with Obama is that he didn't pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. "He lost millions of Hispanic votes and millions of senior votes with that one decision. Men have screwed up this world long enough. It's time to see what a woman can do for America. I'm angry...really angry...that Obama didn't offer Hillary anything at all."

Chirpin' With The Early Birds...
The next morning I head over to Dupont Circle while the air is fresh, the humidity low. Semi-retired NYC police officer Robert Bercaw, 65, and his wife Mercedes, 59, a semi-disabled customer service representative, are strolling through this treed urban park with its famous white marble fountain when I interrupt their idyll. Fortunately for me, the Bercaws are good sports. But they want to make it clear they're surprised Obama picked Joe Biden as his running mate.

"Joe Biden is Old Washington! We were hoping for someone new," said Mercedes Bercaw. "If Obama wanted Old Washington, he should have picked Hillary. She has Washington experience, but there's also more of a change factor with her. She's a woman! That's change right there."

"Who's Joe Biden?" asked Darryl King, 48, a self-proclaimed "people person" who jumped into the conversation. "Obama picked the wrong V.P., he should have picked Hillary. She has lots of followers. I have no clue what Biden's issues are. Joe Biden has to reveal himself to the people, so the people can believe."

The announcement of Joe Biden as Obama's running mate earned the Democrats virtually no bump in the polls. The only recent vice-presidential choices to spark less voter reaction were Dick Cheney in 2000 and Dan Quayle in 1988.

On my way home I run into Albert, a neighbor who lives in Section 8 housing just a block from my home. Tall and extremely thin, he walks down the street with great difficulty yet offers to carry the grocery bags I'm schlepping from the Safeway. We sit down on a nearby retaining wall so he can rest a minute. I fill the time by asking, "Why do you suppose Obama's struggling to maintain his base?"

"Because he's always talking about helping the middle class, that's why. What about poor people? We think the middle class already got it pretty good," said Albert with spot-on clarity.

Paul Abrams says that polls cannot tell you what people base their emotional decisions on, because people themselves rarely are in touch with their inner psyches. But what if Abrams is wrong? What if people know, but don't care to reveal their perceptions -- not to be confused with their stand on the issues -- to strangers?

A 29-year-old lawyer I spoke with outside Rosemary's Thyme Bistro on 18th Street named Emily doesn't tell pollsters how disappointed she was with the timing of Obama's semi-botched text-message to announce his running mate. "I was at a birthday party that evening with six girlfriends. We refreshed our cell phones all night long to see who would get the first message, you know, so we could have a 'Yay!' moment. By the time the text arrived, the party was over."

Her friend Heather, a 29-year-old litigation consultant, doesn't tell pollsters that her 84-year-old grandfather, a retired pastor, sits at his computer all day long emailing members of his former congregation, mostly to tell them that "Obama's not a good old boy. He's not anti-abortion."

Remember when we all thought beating the Republications in '08 was going to be easy? I predict it won't be.

Obama puppet image part of series by Abbey Christine.

Comments

[rnelsonbrown]

I watched with horror and disbelief in 2004 as Bush et al were re-elected. I thought for sure that intelligence, reason, and perspective, championed by those who had not voted in 2000 due to political lethargy, complaisance, or just lack of interest, would rise to the challenge when faced with the thought of another 4 years of the Bush/Cheney/Rummsfeld/Rice/Rove wrecking machine. Alas, as we all know, that did not happen, and the world was subjected to another 4 years of unilateral, head in the sand, contempt for the common man. When the US votes, the world trembles.
And here we are again, with the same prospect augmented past imagination, and i fear you are correct. And why? Could it be because the people who can read this comment and understand the lament it contains are in the minority in the US today, and that reaction, malice, fear, and bull headed aggression are the winning political tactics of the day? Can it actually be that the last 8 years really do reflect the "american dream?" How can the Left reach the Right when the latter just doesn't seem capable of hearing, and seems to react defensively to any arguement, regardless of the merits of those arguments. It seems that those who know they are Right, will never be wrong, regardless of reason. Is this the actual dichotomy of the day?

[LibbyLoon]

While I've been pro-Obama since the primaries, I"m beginning to think that a Clinton-Obama ticket would have been unstoppable. And what's even more painful is that if Obama served as vice for eight years, he would have been near unstoppable when he ran after Clinton.

I think the Dems passed up 16 years of Executive Power for the sexy, NOW pick. I hope I'm wrong though.

[thesimulacra]

As a fellow DC resident, I have to say I think you've either cherry-picked your experiences or you were just tremendously unlucky. I've never seen so much enthusiasm over a single candidate as I've seen in DC for Barack Obama, and not just among our African-American population. My neighbors were a Edwards supporters, but after Edwards dropped out they put a big Obama sign on their lawn. The hair salon across the street as three Obama posters in the windows. Every other day on the metro I see someone with either a big Obama t-shirt on their chest or an Obama button on their messenger bag. My best friend is a public school teacher and he says he can't get his students to stop talking about how excited they are for Obama.

Yes of course a little bit of the shine has worn off, but what did we expect? Has anyone ever been able to maintain the kinds of expectations Obama has had since this primary campaign started 18 months ago? Eventually, no matter how great you are, people just naturally grow tired of hearing about it after awhile. It has less to do with the person and more to do with an always-on media searching for a counter-narrative to increase ratings and grab attention.

[mossy1]

You didn't ask me.
It appears the people commenting on this site are just as cynical.
Barack will win. He even has FOX commenting on the fact "he's just a really, really decent man". Now, THAT'S impressive.

[rose london]

WE DON'T BELIEVE IN POLLS THAT IS OWNED AND CONTROLLED BY ROVE,FAUX,CNN ET AL. OBAMA SUPPORTERS UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS ONE OF THE RETHUGS STRATEGIES IN ORDER TO GET THE RETHUGS BASE BE INTERESTED IN MCSAME. SECONDLY, IT IS A STRATEGY TO GET DONATIONS FOR MCSAME....

YOU HAVE TO DO A BIT CATCH UP. IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT YOU DON'T ACCEPT THAT THIS COMING E;ECTION AND THE THINKING BEHIND IT IS VERY VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE STRATEGIST OF THE PAST..

IT IS ONE OF THE REASON WHY NO ONE IS IN A PANIC FROM THE OBAMA CAMP.. THAY WOULD EVEN AGREE WITH YOU WHICH IS ANOTHER STRATEGY ON IT'S OWN.. MEANING THE MORE YOU RNC PUNDITS KEEP DRUMIMG ABOUT THE POLLS.THE MORE INDEPENDENT VOTERS THE OBAMA CAMP WILL DEFINATELY HAVE.. AND IT'S WORKING..SO KEEP LYING ABOUT THE POLLS..PLEASE, KEEP REPEATING YOUR LIES BECAUSE IT'S HELPING US.

OBAMABIDEN2008.
PS:PALIN IS NO HILLARY----FAMILY FIRST MS PALIN..YOUR CHILDREN NEEDS YOU SO BADLY..SUCH AN HYPOCRATE FOR A VP?..THE WORLD IS LAUGHING ALREADY..

[vonny]

Bo's polls will continue to go down I think. It was a pretty stupid move to pick Biden. It only proved that even Bo knows how inexperienced he is. Biden is same old Washington.... Bo should have pick Hillary.

[walk0nwalls]

The elderly are going to have to explain to me someday how having a woman president would be any different from having a male president.

[BEHM777]

Interesting, but unscientific.

Washington, D. C. will go for Senator Obama.

BEHusseinM777

[AnotherTry]

I have been saying this since the end of May. Obama has made the same mistakes as Kerry with some new ones thrown in for good measure!

Picking Biden was his first big decision and he blew it.

I've always said, 'When the democrats lose, it's because they nominate the wrong candidate.'

Do they want to lose?