Surge Of New Voters and Obama Campaign Efforts Tipping Virginia

McLEAN, Va. -- Virginia increased its voter rolls by a whopping 6.2 percent during the 2008 New Voter Registration period ending today, a figure that is more than double the Obama campaign goal. All these new voters could have a huge impact in a tossup state with fewer than 5 million registered voters. The official tally so far -- 307,482 new voters -- will be even higher once October registrations are counted.

Who are these new decision-makers? "Mostly they're young, independent, and tired of what's going on in Washington. Many moved to Virginia from other states. More than 60 percent are under age 35," Jared Leopold told OffTheBus. Leopold is communications director for the Democratic Party of Virginia Coordinated Campaign.

How many of these newbies are Democrats? There's no way of knowing because Virginia's registration is non-partisan, but the Obama campaign is encouraged by their demographics. One-third live in heavily Democratic northern Virginia: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park, and Loudoun. More than 5,000 new voters registered in Richmond, and more than 3,500 in Norfolk and Newport News -- all areas where John Kerry had a majority in 2004.

At a GOP rally over the weekend, John McCain's brother Joe referred to northern Virginia as "communist country," and then quickly apologized. The Pentagon is located in Arlington.

McLean, a northern Virginia community with a median home price of $1.4 million, once was famously red on the political map. Conservative political commentator Pat Buchanan lives here. So does former GOP presidential candidate and television actor Fred Thompson. But McLean today is as purple as the leaves on the city's flowering crab trees. So on Saturday, OffTheBus drove to Lewinsville Park in the center of town to grill soccer moms and football dads on the issues while they were grillin' hot dogs as part of a youth football fundraiser.

Soccer Moms, Football Dads Want A New Team

"I don't think McLean is a Republican stronghold anymore, unless people are lying," Janis Thomas told OffTheBus. "I know I'm tired of the Republicans and want them out. It's definitely time for a change." Like Obama, Thomas has been against the Iraq War from Day One. "Spending $10 billion a month on that war is disgusting," said the soccer mom. Many of her friends are voting Democratic this time, having been "turned on to Barack Obama by their kids."

About 84 percent of the people living in this community are white. Will race will be a problem for the Obama-Biden ticket? "In this day and age, basing your vote on color is a tragedy," said Thomas.

"At the end of the day, another Republican administration would put America in such a dangerous position," added soccer mom Anne Marie Marenburg. "All this maverick talks scares me. I find it alarming. Do we really need another gun-toting maverick coming to town?"

At the other end of the park, pint-sized football players were playing their hearts out while their parents cheered them on from the sidelines. John (who preferred not to give his last name) told OffTheBus he's concerned about taxes: "The top one percent pay 39 percent of the taxes, and that's enough." John is an undecided voter who favors McCain but is afraid Sarah Palin doesn't have enough experience. "I wish she had some kind of world view. I prefer listening to Obama speak, but I'm afraid his tax plan will kill small businesses."

Football parents James and Heather Devlin are voting for Obama. So is Heather's sixty-year-old father, a southern gentleman who is "fed up with Bush" and the Republican Party. "The world perceives Americans as aggressors. I'd prefer they see us as tempered and thoughtful," said James Devlin. "I think the damage is reversible, and I look forward to it being reversed."

Devlin, an information-technology expert, is surprised how many of his Republican colleagues are "undecided" about this election. His wife Heather, an elementary school teacher, wants Virginia to be the tipping point for Obama in the election. "This is where it's going to happen -- right here in northern Virginia."

Could Virginia Be The Tipping Point?

The population growth in northern Virginia has been dramatic, but it takes more voters than you might think to substantially change the political balance of an entire state. Here's the reality check: in 2004 northern Virginia accounted for 32.4 percent of all registered voters in the state; today that same area accounts for 32.8 percent of the state's registered voters.

Here's another pivotal consideration. The southwestern corner of Virginia is a land of small farms and coal mines settled by Scots-Irish Calvinists. Obama was trounced here during the primaries. In May Gov. Tim Kaine (D) urged the candidate not to write off this region, because it could give John McCain the entire state. "Presence really matters," Kaine told Obama. "Go and show 'em you're really interested."

The Obama campaign opened eight field offices in southwestern Virginia, and engaged many of Hillary Clinton's former canvassers. It's probably no coincidence that the DNC keynote speaker was Virginia's popular former governor Mark Warner (D). So tempting is Virginia to Obama that the day after he secured Clinton's capitulation in the Democratic primary, he was in Bristol, Va. campaigning. The day after the first presidential debate, he was in Fredericksburg, Va. speaking at a huge rally.

In 2004, Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (D) told the Wall Street Journal that "the greatest realignment in modern politics would take place rather quickly if the right national leader found a way to bring the Scots-Irish and African-Americans to the same table, and so to redefine a formula that has consciously set them apart for the past two centuries."

Is Obama that kind of leader? "There's not a lot of difference between the situation of those people he was trying to help in Chicago and the people in southwest Virginia," Webb told New Yorker writer Peter J. Boyer.

Today the race in Virginia is tight because a significant number of people who voted for Bush in 2004 say they will vote for Obama in 2008. Should the race be close on Election Day, watch for all these new voters to tip the balance.

Follow Diane Tucker on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dianetucker

Comments

[PCRX]

If voter turnout for Obama is huge, there will be no denial or ability to steal the results. Landslide. Lets all get out the vote and never get complacent. If Obama supporters turn out in massive numbers it will be glaringly obvious and a mandate that says ENOUGH! and a signal to the world that yes we can turn our destructive ways around.

[Hare]

C'man people. Let's keep our Hopes up. This election will not be stolen or "swiftvoted" by silly smears from the republican machine. Obama will be the first AFRICAN AMERICAN president of the United States. All the sacrifices and hard work his mother, grand parents and even father put into him will make him a successful president. If he was my son I would be very proud of him. Obama 08

[Greg285]

McCain and the Replubs are going to be really shocked with Virginia turns blue on Nov 4th....

[NoWMDs]

Let's see what the McPalins think of community organizers once this is over.

[KarlaElisa]

Your police state in action

By the way, ever wonder what Bush told the idiots in the House that made them vote for the bailout bill?
It seems there was this secret briefing of congressional leaders a while back on why the bailout packaged HAD to be approved. What was said at that meeting? Well, it seems that folks like you and me weren't worthy of being told. Rep. Brad Sherman did spill the beans, but somehow, the corporate media didn't think the issue worth pursuing.

SEE FOR YOURSELF HERE:

http://www.thoughtcrimes.org/s9/index.php?url=archives/2618-BushCo-threatens-martial-law-to-get-bill-passed.html&serendipity[csuccess]=true#feedback

[ensure]

Poll: Barack Obama Expands National Lead: http://www.sefermpost.com/sefermpost/2008/10/poll-barack-o-1.html

[JJeff88]

Two most recent Virginia polls (Suffolk and Survey USA) released this afternoon have Obama enjoying +13 and +10 leads.

Particularly reassuring were Obama's SUSA numbers in the Shenendoah region (i.e. Appalachia). Check out RealClear for details.

[HurryUp1212009]

Obama needs at least $100 million in the last month of this mud-slinging campaign. PLEASE, dig down and contribute every dollar you are able. YOUR FAMILY'S FUTURE DEPENDS ON THE OUTCOME OF THIS ELECTION!!!

[HurryUp1212009]

WATCH OUT FOR MASSIVE, ACROSS THE COUNTRY, EFFORTS BY REPUBLICAN THUGS TO INTIMIDATE AND HARRASS VOTERS AT POLLING PLACES IN ORDER TO SUPPRESS VOTERS FOR OBAMA. IF YOU POSSIBLY CAN, VOTE EARLY TO AVOID INSUFFICIENT VOTING MACHINES. AND MAKE SURE TO BRING A MATCHING ID WITH YOU TO VOTE. TELL EVERYBODY ELSE TO DO THE SAME THING, BRING VALID ID TO THE POLLING PLACE, SO YOU DON'T GET CHALLENGED AND/OR DISQUALIFIED!!!

[Mikecroft]

For all you history buffs out there, McCain’s ground campaign in Northern Virginia is encountering some of the difficulties that finished off Robert E. Lee in 1865. The Blues are getting too many reinforcements, have more money to spend, and have cut off support from the southern parts of the state. Just like Ulysses Grant took Richmond, it looks like Barack Obama is going to take Virginia.

[AJ30]

Guys obama has got the best team for the work, and they know what they are doing
what they need from us is financial support,the campaign is in it's final days and it is gonna get only dirtier,and at this point money matters more than anything
we already came long way,we are almost there,so let us finish the mission and donate more....

[marymansour]

The scent of real change is in the air and it smells wonderful.


Obama and Biden in 2008.

[Antifascist-08]

If Obama carries Pennsylvania and Virginia, it is over for McCain.

[dizmo4]

There's no "if" regarding Pennsylvania, Obama's going to carry it.

McCains more likely than not going to have to pull out of that state within a week or two. Its far too expensive and he needs that money to play defense in states like Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and especially the super pricey Florida.

As far as Virginia goes, every indication is that Obama's going to win that by a fairly wide margin (+3%) The only real area to worry about is NOrforlk. ITs very heavy with Navy people, and McCain may benefit since he's a former Navy guy. That said, I suspect older veterans like McCain more than active duty sailors so in the end it may be a wash. I also suspect that the families of service members will support Obama by a very wide margin -- 60% or so.

[BlueAsh]

The young veterans I've talked to over the past year were in the Army, not Navy, so the situation is a bit different. However, I was struck by how much discontent these young veterans expressed. And, almost to a person, they talked about the fact that soldiers on active duty are not allowed to speak their minds--and they don't like the war.

If a small percentage in the Navy share similar sentiments, they could tip the scale in Obama's favor.

[Mauimom]

I wish there were some way for veterans in Norfolk & elsewhere to read VoteVets' web site about McCain's LACK of support of veterans.

VoteVets has been relentless in pointing out McCain's opposition to numerous bills that would have increased veterans' benefits, provided better armor to troops in Iraq, required longer at-home rest periods between deployments, and on and on.

This is the sort of info the Obama campaign ought to be saturating this area with, and the VoteVet guys are just the ones to do it.

[JNagarya]

Webb is also Navy. And unlike McSame he's from VA.

[jeffp26]

Isn't one of our virtues, a protestant ethic, working hard.

Well the Obama people have worked hard for two years now. They deserve to win just for that.

Nevermind that this country deserves better.

[erick28]

I just hope that the Obama campaign team will not feel complacent about this good news, rather they will be more vigilant about the new attacks. So far, I am very impressed the way they are handling every attacks being thrown at them. I think, that is the best way to handle the smear attacks -- go on the offense. FTW!!!

[dizmo4]

The concern isn't the Obama team -- they're going to be working at 100% level through election day.

The concern that I have is that because polling has shown Obama with a lead in just about every key battleground state, that it will lead to voter complacency. Young, first time voters will look at polls showing Obama +5 in a state, and stay home figuring that he's going to win and they don't need to bother voting.

THe problem comes if enough voters do that, Obama goes from +5 to -1 and loses. While the polling data certainly makes me feel good about Obama winning in November, I do sometimes think it may be better for him to be slightly trailing so that first time voters feel the sense of urgency to get to the polls and to get their friends and families to the polls....

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

You are both right to be concerned about complacency. In fact, researchers say that for every four new voters you sign up, only three will actually make it to the polls.

Thanks for reading!

[byoung4change]

There will be plenty of repubs looking for new employment this year...