Yemen's Economic Crisis Threatens Volatile Region's Security (PHOTOS)

For centuries tourists have traveled to the walled city of Shibam in eastern Yemen to see the world's oldest skyscrapers: 500 mud-brick structures rising up to 16 stories high, earning Shibam the nickname Manhattan of the desert. Several weeks ago, four South Korean tourists had their picture taken while watching the sun set over this awe-inspiring World Heritage Site. As they posed for the camera, a Yemeni teenager walked up and pleasantly asked to have his picture taken standing alongside the sightseers.

Within seconds, the Yemeni teen detonated the explosives' belt wrapped around his waist, killing himself and the four unsuspecting tourists.

A few days later a suicide bomber in Yemen blew the windows out of a South Korean diplomatic vehicle carrying the bereaved relatives of the four murdered vacationers.

These attacks were the dirty work of AQAP -- the newest franchise in the old Al Qaeda terrorist network. Last year, Al Qaeda websites urged frustrated Saudi operatives to flee to Yemen, where they were joined by other recruits arriving from Iraq, Somalia, and Pakistan. Banding together, they announced in January 2009 the formation of "Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" -- or AQAP.

This is not good news for Yemen's fragile democracy, which is facing a severe economic crisis and potential economic collapse because the country's oil resources -- which provide nearly 90 percent of the country's export earnings -- are nearly exhausted.

Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world. One-third of its people suffer from malnutrition, many of its government institutions are corrupt, and the country suffers from severe water shortages. Yemen's population of 23 million people owns well over 23 million firearms. One expert called it a witch's brew of potential disaster.

• • • • • • • • Yemeni women walk past the historical city of Shibam in Hadramaut province of eastern Yemen on October 28, 2008.

Is Yemen the next Afghanistan?

It depends on whom you ask.

Princeton University Ph.D. candidate Gregory Johnsen, a former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen, told Huffington Post that while he doesn't think Yemen will supplant the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region as the most important front in the war against Al Qaeda, he does believe Yemen has become a significant front now that the Al Qaeda organization has gone from a local chapter to a regional franchise.

Johnsen, who blogs about Yemen at islamandinsurgencyinyemen.blogspot.com, warned that Yemen's economy is getting weaker by the day. "And as less and less money comes in, the government is less able to control the state, primarily because deals made in the past were dependent upon having enough money to buy off domestic opponents. If Yemen becomes a failed state, it will open up a great deal of space for terrorist groups and individuals to move in."

This possibility concerns the U.S. and other countries. Yemen shares a border with Saudi Arabia. Yemen also controls the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait -- a chokepoint through which 3.3 million barrels of oil are shipped every day. Across the strait from Yemen is the disorderly country of Somalia, and its infamous pirates.

"Information on Yemen is hard to get, so people will project all kinds of fears," cautioned Charles Schmitz, an associate professor at Towson University. Schmitz told Huffington Post that one of the big misunderstandings is that somehow Yemen is going to become what Afghanistan was prior to 2001 -- a base from which international enemies of the U.S. can operate. "In my opinion Al Qaeda is an irritant, but they are no more than an irritant," said Schmitz. "The Yemeni government has enough control to knock out a permanent Al Qaeda training camp."

Schmitz, who also is president of the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, isn't convinced Al Qaeda's effectiveness in Yemen is increasing. "The double attack on the South Korean travelers had a certain sophistication, but can you say it was more sophisticated than the USS Cole bombing?"

Whether or not the attacks are sophisticated, terrorist activity in Yemen has certainly increased. Could AQAP launch a major attack in the region?

"On that point, I'm skeptical," Thomas Hegghammer told Huffington Post. Hegghammer, a fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, blogs at jihadica.com. "Still, I think it's important to try and contain AQAP because if they're allowed to establish a safe haven in Yemen, they will use it to prepare more sophisticated operations, including attacks within Saudi Arabia."

In fact, AQAP has already announced through various media that they intend to use the under-governed regions of Yemen as a staging ground for attacks in Saudi Arabia. "The Yemeni government has rounded up a lot of lower level people who may or may not be involved in terrorist acts, but they haven't touched the big guys," Christoph Wilcke, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, told Huffington Post.

Is a more ambitious Al Qaeda the biggest security threat facing Yemen?

"I think the economy is the most pressing security issue, and the one that will ultimately have the biggest impact on the country," said Johnsen. "However, president Saleh is also dealing with a civil war and social unrest. These three things are bigger problems for Yemen than Al Qaeda is, and they are coming together to make Yemen an incredibly difficult place to rule."

In addition, the breakdown of the Somali government has put pressure on Yemen. So, is Yemen the next Somalia? Not according to Schmitz. "If you go to any of the state-failure data bases, you will see that Yemen's state capacity is increasing on most -- but certainly not all -- indicators. I don't believe Yemen is going to fall apart in that manner."

Nevertheless, it won't be easy for the U.S. to aid Yemen. According to sources at Human Rights Watch, the Bush administration said they were frustrated with Yemen because "you never know who to trust."

"I understand that sentiment perfectly," said Hegghammer. "The state is weak in Yemen. It is a well-known fact that part of the security establishment has been infiltrated, and not necessarily by Al Qaeda. This poses a real dilemma for the U.S."

Hegghammer believes Saudi Arabia is the key to helping Yemen, because when it comes to combating Al Qaeda, the Saudis have been very effective. "They have expertise and resources they could share with Yemen. To some extent, I'm sure they already have. However, I don't think they are doing as much as they could."

According to Wilcke, the U.S. should be wary of simply sending money to Yemen. He recommends the Obama administration attach strings to non-emergency aid. "To help Yemen, the U.S. should be certain it is empowering people in need, and it should consider extracting a political price for its assistance by insisting that Yemen respect its obligations under international law."

Wilcke also believes the Yemeni government could do itself a favor by releasing many of the hundreds of people they've arrested with regard to the civil war, because the continued arrest and disappearance of people "is causing great grief and concern."

Schmitz would like to see the U.S. develop a long-term strategy for Yemen. "If you ask Yemenis what their biggest problem is, they're not going to say it's Al Qaeda. They're going to say it's poverty. Their big issue is development. They want schools and jobs and water."

Years ago Yemen was a beacon of hope and democracy. Today Yemeni democracy is on hold: the upcoming elections have been postponed.

"Most of my friends are Yemenis, and it's sad to see the things they're up against," said Johnsen. "When I go to dinner with professors from Sana'a University, they talk about how most of their students can't find jobs after graduation. The young people are reduced to almost hawking stuff on the street."

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Comments

[Yemeni-Engineer]

This article is well written. My biggest concern about the future of this good country is poverty. It’s the biggest reason for most of the bad things that can result from the current situation. These are the things that can have local and international negative effects. It is time for the Gulf countries and International community to exhort genuine effort to support the Yemeni economy and democracy. I see many young educated people that are sitting on the sides of the streets doing nothing and they are an easy and useful resource for anyone wanting trouble in the country and abroad. Little honest and effective efforts can have big results.

[dems08]

Those apt highrises in the background appear to be made out of

clay.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, they're made of mud bricks, and date from the 16th century (though many of the buildings have been rebuilt over and over again). The walled city of Shibam is the earliest example of urban planning based on the principle of vertical construction -- at least, the earliest at this height. The ancient Romans tried vertical construction, but didn't achieve 16 stories.

[WorkingClass]

This bomber was willing to die to off a hand full of tourists? I guess if I lived in Yemen I would want to die too.

[Solaris123]

28 comments so far. Not SINGLE post actually blaming people who perpetrate the bombing campaign.
It's the Weimar Republic style of discourse.

[dems08]

be our guest

[pompous]

The first photo is perhaps one of the most haunting I have seen. Two women shrouded in black and from the world seems to be a perfect metaphor for the state of things inn the Middle East. The dynastic system of leadership in the Saudi penninsula maintains their population in poverty with religion being the only form of expression. The poverty in Afghanistan and Pakistan is maintained by those who are self interested and wish to build more gas lines. These people have been so brutalized and improverished for so long. The corporate oligarchy of the oil companies no doubt want to insure their product at any cost as the Chinese do in the Sudan.

[bbbear]

When the Shah was still in power I made many embassy runs into Tehran, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia ( my least favorite and, IMO, the most repressed. ) and many other ME countries.. Generally I liked the people and the food. Good thing because my aircraft, a C 130 four engine turbo prop, blew a gasket on on #4 engine. We stayed in a pleasant Tehran Hotel for over a month and met many wonderful people. That was a different time... But not too long after that our welcome began to wear thin....
We never did get the damned gasket. Finally tired of lounging around the pool or touring beautiful mosques, no booze, and worst of of all, no loving, We did a preflight, got all four engines spinning but no power on #4, reached altitude, and feathered number #4. We declared a May day when we reached Athens air space which had oodles of said gaskets.... as well as plenty of booze and a lot of emergency loving....

[Big0725]

God bless that emergency lovin'! :)

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

Speaking of amazing photos, this link offers a view of Shibam at sunset, the most popular time to photograph the World Heritage Site. No wonder those poor tourists wanted this shot. It's other-worldly.

http://www.traveladventures.org/continents/asia/shibam01.shtml

[davidwayneosedach]

Obama please: first Pakistan - THEN YEMEN. We need to keep the number of wars under control.

[zaz33]

I have to believe the pentagon is just drooling over those apartments.

Imagine all the history and culture they could destroy

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

All the Yemen scholars I've spoken with say it's time for Saudi Arabia to step up and aid Yemen. If the biggest issue is development, the Saudis certainly have the cash.

[maryoca]

I'm sure there are real economic forces at work that are seriously impacting Yemen's economy, but I wonder if one of the reasons for their economic decline is qat. The work day in Yemen largely ends at 3:00 so everyone can go chew qat. Then in the evening they drink so they can come down from their methamphetamine high enough to sleep. Some have estimated that 25-30% of a family's income in Yemen goes to purchase qat. While there, I saw rows of fruit trees in orchards dying from lack of water but the qat bushes planted in between were nice and green.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

I posed your interesting question to Charles Schmitz, president of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies. Schmitz said, "Qat cultivation does consume water and land that could be used to grow coffee for export, and though this would certainly help, such a substitution could no more solve Yemen's huge economic problems than alcohol prohibition could have solved the U.S. economic crisis of the 1930s."

[bbbear]

IMHO, this is not a US problem. Further, I strongly suspect expanded US involvement in Yemen will only worsen the ME situation. Since Yemen is Saudi Arabia's next door neighbor, the Saudi's have the most to lose. Sure, they'll probably try to continue straddling the fence, one foot in the Taliban philosophy ( Which is the first cousin of Al Qaida. ) and the other foot in the pocket of the USA. However if the USA simply refuses to engage in Yemen, the Saudi's will be forced to get off the fence . As you noted, the Saudi's have the resources to at least limit the actions of Al Qaita. After a few of their oil wells erupt into balls of fire, and their pipe line through Yemen is cut, I strongly suspect they'll get off their opulent rear ends and take care of business. If not, gas will again soar which may give we the sheeple the incentive to find another, hopefully cleaner, power source.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

It was suggested to me that the Saudis become to Yemen what the U.S. is to Mexico -- in terms of financial aid to improve the Yemeni infrastructure.

According to a London think tank, Yemen has four or five years before total economic collapse unless they successfully transition to an oil-free economy. Liquid natural gas is coming on line late this year, but Gregory Johnsen isn't optimistic it will make up the difference.

[bbbear]

Geeez, poor Saudi's! In order to save themselves they may be forced to fork over enough financial aide to save Yemen. That would be so awful for them! Can you imagine! They might even need to sell a few gold toilets! OMG, they can't be expected to poop in regular toilets!

Sorry, grin, I could resist that... I guess you mean Yemen's natural gas will soon come on line. If so, then surely it's much more difficult/expensive to load up and ship to Japan, USA, China, et al.... So Johnsen's view seems right on... Saudi Arabia just might need to adopt their neighbor... At least until their oil runs out... And some have suggested it's an open secret that Saudi oil has also peaked and it's only a matter of time before we the sheeple are let in on it...

If that's the case, then let's hope Obama rams enough new green energy in place in time to take up the Saudi oil Slack....Still, the USA also has a good amount of untapped natural gas. And, Of course, in the end we still have, cough cough, tons and tons of toxic coal....And, call me a fool, but I still have some hope that cold fusion, which the US Navy has never given up on, might just save the day....

[Konnie]

is it me or is the mayan end of days calendar suddenly starting to look prophetic.................these crazies
are getting closer and closer to a nuclear bomb, with lots of other crazies jumping up and down
hoping to be ground zero..................what's wrong with this picture?

[bbbear]

Probably noting... That vast numbers of humankind seem to be ever more insane is probably merely nature fighting back against a decidedly out of balance species... One thing nature will not indure is imbalance.

[Diane Tucker - Huffpost Blogger]

They're certainly getting closer to some frightening weapons in Pakistan this week.

[bbbear]

True. The Taliban are driven to rid Afghanistan and Pakistan of colonist , while Al Qaita has the truly larger insane goal of ridding the world of all but those who, like the Taliban and themselves, believe in Islam as practiced in the 5th century. Maybe if Big Oil of the West, particularly the USA, were not so fearful that Saudi oil will soon peak, we wouldn't feel the need to fill the coming Saudi gap with all of those probable vastly productive untapped Iraqi oil fields in the name of Texaco, Exon, Chevron, Mobile, and Shell? That is, maybe if the US simply pulled out of the ME, with no one to fight, the Taliban and Al Qaita would either calm down or fight each other.. Or maybe Iran, Iraq and Egypt will manage to harness, or at least keep occupied both seemingly, at least to us, nutty groups. Either way, unless Al Qaita pulls another 911, IMHO, it's none of our business.

[TXfemmom]

Let's face it, Pakistan better get its' act together and forcefully and effectively push the Taliban back and regain more control of the country. The United States, NATO, India and China, since it is on the border with it and would be a target, as well, would have to attack Pakistan with everything they have in conventional weapons and exact a toll which none of us would want to see, if the Taliban and Al Qaeda come near those weapons. I pray every night that Pakistan can do this and we do not have to punish the innocent in Pakistan to prevent the extremists from putting the entire world in peril.