The Passage of Prop 8: Do The Math

If you couldn't tell by now, we love math. Much to the disappointment of our fathers, who are both men of science and can do all sorts of tricky calculasians in their heads with one hand tied behind their backs while chewing gum, walking, and humming "Ode to Joy" at the same time, we chose paths in life where we don't use a whole lot of it day to day. We've tried over the years to convince our dads that our silly Americanized ways of doing things are not so different from their own; that, say, there was empirical logic in the study of lit theory (admittedly a hard sell) -- and therefore, it was not a total waste of their tuition money -- or that, even though we sucked at AP calculus, we could still balance our checkbooks and manage our money, because, hey, a zero in your bank account is as absolute as it is on the Kelvin temperature scale.

But we always return to math in one way or another, whether it's calculating how many electoral votes we needed to clinch for an Obama victory or figuring out the number of notes we needed to hit to finally slay "Free Bird" on GH2 on Expert (which we did, by the way). Because math, like our Hardass Asian Fathers, is reliable. And it is honest -- hence the phrase, "The numbers don't lie."

Of course, sometimes the interpretation of the numbers do. We got to thinking about that in the wake -- and we mean that in the funereal sense -- of the passage of Proposition 8, the gay marriage ban. Earlier in the week, we posted the CNN exit poll on how people voted, by race, on Prop 8. The number that jumps out at you is the 70% of African-American voters who supported the ban. There's been a lot of grumbling on the internet about how the passage of Prop 8 is the fault of black voters, with an implicit (and sometimes not-so-implicit) How dare They, especially since we elected one of Them.

Feels good, doesn't it? To fall back on good ol' fashioned finger-pointing, especially in this slouching-towards-postracial-Bethlehem we find ourselves in, this era of hope and change. At least we can still scapegoat groups of people! African-Americans, in particular, because they got theirs, right?

But this, as my father would say, is unscientific. And when my dad, a physics professor who's taught at a black college for the last 25 years, says something is "unscientific," that's a politic way of him saying: this is total bullshit. So, sure, you could look at this exit poll...

... and say, since the margin between for and against came down to 500,000 votes out of 10 million, If only we had gotten 100% of the African-American vote against 8, we would have had this in the bag. How dare They. But what if we had gotten 100% of the Asian and "Other" vote against Prop 8, which would have been an increase of 450,000 votes, and, like, 1% percent more of the white vote? What if we had gotten 75% of the Latino vote, instead of 47%? Or what if we had gotten 59% of the white vote against Prop 8 instead of 51%, the most achievable statistical increase? What if we didn't put the outcome of gay marriage all on one group, and if we had gotten 6.5% more of the white vote (+409,500), 3% more of the Latino vote (+54,000), 2% more of the black vote (+20,000), and 2% more of the Asian and Other vote (+18,000)? Or any combination therein?

Answer: gay marriage would be legal today in California.

If we've learned one thing from this election, it's that we all have to work together. It wasn't black voters alone who got a black President elected. It was black, white, Latino, Asian, mixed, working together. And it's not black voters alone who passed the gay marriage ban, either. We all did -- a percentage of us here, a percentage of us there. That's the truth that these exit poll numbers tell us: we failed. All of us. Together.

The shame that we feel today is only directed at our collective failure, which we need to figure out how to rectify. All of us. Together. Diana and I also feel quite a bit of shame over the fact that we couldn't crunch all those numbers in our head and had to use a calculator (and made a few miscalculasians along the way), and now we have a raging headache from doing all of this math...but that's just us. Sorry, Dads!

Comments

[JohnBisceglia]

The PROCESS of VOTING ON any group's civil rights is criminal. Yet our country allowed CA (and others) to VOTE on "rights".

And where the hell was Arnold during all of this?! Isn't he the "Governor" or something?
Every CA politician is to blame for allowing the PROCESS ITSELF to occur.

PROP 8 was created; government shrugged.

PROP 8 was put on the ballot; government shrugged.

PROP 8 passed; government shrugged.

[karungguni]

Were you the two hot asian girls in the Silver SLK screaming and cheering us along on Market St. last friday? Am gay, not hitting on you, just need a bit of levity after all of my ranting on my facebook page

[write2bheard]

In Fla the proposition was oddly worded usually. Some people may have voted yes thinking they were voting yes to allow gay marriage when actually they were voting yes to ban it.

The second thing is marriage is a term that traditionally has a faith-based meaning as identified in Genesis as between a woman and a man. Many people of faith do not want to deny anyone the civil rights they are entitled to as American citizens. They do want to perserve a basic tenet of their faith which is God-ordained (marriage) as defined by the Book they base their faith on. They want to be able to teach their children this faith, using the Bible as their source as is their right. Gay marriage changes that definition, but a term such as civil union which confers all the legal rights of marriage would be more accepted by people of faith than gay marriage. There would probably still be some resistance by the hard right, but moderate Christians would support this.

Trying to use reason to discredit the Bible and its believers is an exercise in futility. Faith by its very definition defies reason. A house divided will not stand, we need to find common ground and stand together.

[pfrogger]

Thank you for the salient statements and understandable position. This adds to a respectable discourse that we can all participate in equally.
But for the record, a civil union does NOT, I repeat NOT, confer all the rights of marriage. In each state there are varying laws adding various rights to civil unions (that is in the few states that allow it). But even where it's allowed, a civil union only confers the merest token of rights versus marriage. There are also federal "rights of marriage" that do not extend to civil unions. Please don't take my word for it, do the research.
What I discovered is that civil unions offer only a minuscule subset of rights given to those who are "married". After researching it, I discovered the shocking disparity between the two entities. I don't believe any person, regardless of race, creed, religion, gender, or sexual orientation should be denied any rights.

[write2bheard]

I realize everyone feels their religion is the right/valid one which is why they subscribe to it, and no one should be denied their civil rights based on someone else's belieff.

Everyone needs their civil rights & their religious views respected. To define marriage as one thing in the Book and in the legal realm have it mean something that is expressly forbidden in the same Book would not be acceptable to moderate Christians who make up a majority of the electorate. Perhaps we should take "marriage" out of the legal realm and redefine all committed partnerships as "civil unions" . This might cause Christians to become more entrenched in their resistance as they see this as an all-out assault on the culture they want to pass on to their children.

While civil unions do not presently confer "all" rights of marriage, it might be easier to change that than to change the concept of marriage.

The decision depends on the goals. If the goal is to obtain civil rights, civil unions with all the rights of marriage may be the quickest/surest path. If the goal is to have gay unions seen as being as God-ordained as opposite sex marriage, the fight to have gay unions referred to as marriage is the right path, though the fight may be long and difficult. Over time, this will change the paradigm of marriage from what is in the Bible which Christians see as Divine wisdom to a new paradigm.

[pfrogger]

I respect and appreciate the position of faith. However, I don't believe that my faith should ever influence someone else's rights. Anyone can teach their children about their religion. And if the Book says that marriage is between a man and a woman, then so be it. But what if my religion doesn't hold such strict definitions. Is your religion more correct than mine? Freedom of religion allows anyone to practice their religion. But if we influence rights based on religion, we are in deep trouble. All religions have "issues", things which aren't the most progressive or fair. Whether it's the topic of slavery, or that of women or minorities as second-class citizens. But we don't enforce those or any religious views, because to do so would be unfair.

[ejackson21st]

I first want to say that your article was well written and fun to read. I am a 50 something non-gay Black man and I am disappointed to know that 70% of Black Californians voted for prop 8. I voted against the proposition but as soon as I left the poll at 7:30 a.m. I had the feeling that I should have gotten involved in actively supporting Vote No on 8 long before election day. I promise to donate money and march and write letters from this day forth to give back the rights that are due to the gay community.

Coretta Scott King strongly opposed discrimination against gays and was brave enough to say that the gay community's fight for equality was indeed an important fight for civil rights. I lived at a time and in a state when it was illegal for me to marry or to go to school with White people. I lived in a large city but from kindergarten through my senior year in High School I never had a white student in any of my classes nor did I ever have a white teacher. When I went to college, I was one of 200 black students among 30,000 white students. It was like being in a foreign country. [I graduated Cum Laude.]

All of a sudden California feels like a foreign country to me after this vote. I feel really bad about what has happened.

[GregJL]

You can start by not referring to it as a right for the gay community, but rahter as a right that should be enjoyed by all citizens, not just a select group. Push the idea that everyone should be able to marry someone they love, and be able to raise a family. It's not about man or woman, straight or gay, it's about FAMILY. While we're a it, we need to redefine the way families work. It's not about the "head of the house", it's about an equal partenership. Loving partners protecting and raising caring, responsible children to be caring, responsible adults.

[pfrogger]

watch and learn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWqgD7lGneU

[McFlipFlop]

"At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial one. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[lw535]

Yes, people of all races voted for Prop 8. But doing the math does not change the fact that 70% of African American voters in CA voted to disenfranchise another oppressed group. I think gays and lesbians of all races deserve to be hurt and disappointed in this fact, and African Americans should be called to account and challenged by the progressive community.

On the other hand let us temper our disappointment with the knowledge that gay liberation itself was inspired by the black civil rights movement. Let us remember Nelson Mandela's long struggle and how he and black South Africans made S. Africa the first nation in the world to guarantee equal rights for gay and lesbian people. Let us remember Cesar Chavez speaking out at for our rights at our original marches on Washington, and then let us salve the disappointment we feel now and re-commit ourselves to struggle, out and proud, for a better world for all people. The California vote does not change the ultimate truth that we are all created equal and if we continue to reach out, allow more lesbian and gay people of color to be heard, and make even more strategic alliances with communities of color we will all one day drink from the same cup.

[DarkYoga]

Uh, sorry but you can't really compare what has happened to us gay folks in California to the "finger pointing" the black community has "suffered" since prop 8 passed. Give me a break! Californian's passed a CONSTITUTIONAL amendment stripping rights away from the gays and lesbians across the state. And the only way you can vote for something like that is if you think gay and lesbian people are less than deserving of what everyone else in state is entitled to. People who voted yes on 8 are bigots plain and simple and deserve to be called out on it in a HUGE way.

I would much rather my community would be facing a media scoulding than having our 2nd class status reinstated. If Californians passed a constitutional amendment saying black Californians couldn't get married and 70% of white people voted for it, I think the black community would be OUTRAGED and pointing all kinds of fingers at the white community. Of course, you can put any ethnic group in that sentence and the same sentiment would be true. Everyone deserves to have the finger pointed at them but today, I'm pointing it at the black community. I'm saying shame on you the 70 percent of black Californians who voted on this. You are bigots and I sure hope people have bigger hearts and minds than you did on prop 8 when your rights are up on the ballot.

[RumiSouth]

THANK YOU!!!

BOOKMARKED...

[Bob C]

These exit polls on this issue are as reliable as the pre-vote polls which showed Prop 8's passage by four points.

Civil rights are taken away by a popular vote often. Remember Prop 187?

[olybohemian]

since november 4th, when the world began celebrating the election of barack obama, i (along with gay people everywhere) have felt a sense of confusion and sadness. the day after the election, i wanted to gloat and strut about in the knowledge that the powers that be are being run out of washington. i wanted (and still want) to celebrate this new day of hope, this historical and evolutionary triumph. but with the knowledge that basic civil rights are being kept - even taken - from us makes it difficult and, to a degree, keeps us apart from the revelry. it's tormenting.

many of our straight friends and allies are completely unaware of what's going on. they are, most understandably, caught up in the merriment. i don't want to rain on your parade, but i do want you to know that queer people are fighting for our lives. we are in the midst of a civil rights battle that has taken place in homes across this country and is now spilling out into the streets - and, in some cases, blood is being shed.

a word to my queer friends: through everything, i think it's important for us to allow ourselves to be happy and hopeful and excited about obama and the possibilities of the future in the midst of being oppressed because...we don't have anything if we don't have hope.

[Citizen-Jane]

Thanks for showing the numbers. What I have been reading on this subject for the past few days was disturbing. Black people are gays and lesbians too. This whole situation revealed something I did not like seeing. I agree that every one has to work together.
To begin with the debate about marriage needs to be separate from what religions deem as a marriage. People/citizens pay taxes to the state whether they are gay or straight. People may or may not pay tithes to theirs church's. For a state to discriminate against citizdns a whose on crime is loving someone of the same sex is notand should not ever be up for up for a popularity vote. Find a person who can articulate and make a good arguement on this issue. This fight is not over. Keep protesting and staying involved.

[KMan1]

"we failed. All of us. Together."

Exactly right and we will keep failing together if we continue to play the blame game. Beware.

[M1]

No Scapegoating no blaming but the facts are the facts. It is out in the open and the Democratic leadership is going to have to deal with this fracture within the party. This issue must be settled by the courts and I believe it will. The fact the proposition was even allowed on the ballot was likely illegal. I do not blame anyone group. I see it as a perfect storm where everyone had focused their attention and time on electing Obama, the right wing conservatives adopted Carl Rove like campaigning for a State prop measure which the State had never seen before, Gays used to being treated like cattle never challenged the prop in court before it was placed on the ballot, an unholy religious alliance was formed by religious institutions and reached its evil into the churches of minoriites and called upon them to atack their gay brothers and sisters. All of this went practically unnoticed until it was too late...it was a perfect storm.

But the truth is that fundamental rights of a minority group should never be allowed up for vote by the majority ....that in itself is demeaning to the minority group....and the damage is done. Further damage has been done since the abomination passed and everyday it remains unvalidated more damage is being done.

[pfrogger]

"fundamental rights of a minority group should never be allowed up for vote by the majority"
that says it all, thank you
if we can vote on the right of gay people getting married, then why not vote on if straight people can get married. it won't pass, but maybe it'll show straight people a different perspective

[BSERIUS]

I have seen the word shame thrown around almost as much as the words civil rights... The majority of Californians are not ashamed. You can only be ashamed for something you did or did not do, you cannot be ashamed for someone else... This is not a civil rights issue . The First amendment says so ... Marriage is not a right and has prerequisites as does driving , blogging, and being POTUS...

[Lance734]

"This is not a civil rights issue . The First amendment says so ... Marriage is not a right "

You & other pro-Prop 8 folk have been spreading this lie since forever. Sorry, but you are absolutely dead WRONG here. Marriage has been declared a fundamental human & civil right by the courts of this country, Canada, and most of modern western civilization since the 1800s. All of the major privacy/family rigths cases of the past 150 years have come down the way they did (protecting us from gov't control) b/c marriage is a civil & human right of the most fundamental importance. To hold otherwise would mean that straights have no marital privacy and the gov't can legislate whether you can use contraceptives, what kinds of sexual practices you can engage in, how you can raise your family, etc. A fundamental human right is just that -- fundamental. It can't exist for some human beings and not for others -- it belongs to everyone and the majority certainly can't withold it from the minority. That turns the concept of "equal protection of the laws" on its head.

And the 1st Amendment says absolutely nothing about marriage, so only you know where you're going with that one.

[pfrogger]

Marriage IS a right. Multiple court cases have confirmed this. As did the CA supreme court.

CA Supreme Court 2008: "that the California legislative and initiative measures limiting marriage to opposite-sex couples violate the state constitutional rights of same-sex couples and may not be used to preclude same-sex couples from marrying",

and "and that marriage is a fundamental right under Article 1, Section 7 of the California Constitution".

You can NOT vote on a constitutional right!