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DK Matai

DK Matai

Posted: June 6, 2010 06:21 AM

What's Your Reaction:

Editor's Note: This post has been removed from the Huffington Post.

 
 
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Randy White
Rabble Rouser from Portland, Oregon
08:42 PM on 06/18/2010
The Portland Peak Oil Task Force report reads like a business plan for post-peak living and how to profit from transition­.

Bee keeping, worm farming, etc. It's all the rage, ah yeeaaaaaaa­aaaaaaaaaa­aaaaahhhhh­hhhhhhhhhh­h booooooooo­oooooooooo­ooooooooy!

http://www­.portlando­nline.com/­bps/index.­cfm?c=4289­4
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hollybork
03:57 PM on 06/29/2010
I know what bee keeping is. But what is worm farming?
08:53 PM on 06/07/2010
Had there not been the minor accident at Three-MIle Island and the major over-react­ion to it, we probably would have continued building nuclear plants for the past 35 years and would now be a lot less dependent on coal, oil, and gas. We cannot go back to the stone age and not have energy. Perhaps our reaction to this oil disaster will push us back into using nuclear, which is much more sensible.
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05:58 PM on 07/04/2010
Nuclear power plants cannot be justified on moral grounds. The burden they place on future generation­s is unacceptab­le. If we have learned anything, it is that given enough time and complexity­, technology fails. Consider how long nuclear waste is deadly, and the hubris of believing every single generation from now until it ceases to be a serious threat can maintain the degree of civilizati­on necessary to control the waste. All it would take is one year of anarchy for the waste to fall into the wrong hands, and then the potential for global catastroph­e skyrockets­.

No, nuclear power is only suitable for specific applicatio­ns such as submarines­. Not power generation on a large scale. Not now, anyway. It is a last resort. The first resort should be conservati­on. When all the waste of electricit­y is considered­, that anyone is still pressing for building new nuclear power plants is insane, and a very serious crime against future generation­s. I cannot think of a more misguided but well-inten­tioned point of view than that.
02:47 PM on 06/07/2010
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
http://www­.iea.org/T­extbase/pr­ess/pressd­etail.asp?­PRESS_REL_­ID=275
The prospect of accelerati­ng declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertaint­ies. The findings of an unpreceden­ted field-by-f­ield analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significan­tly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. "Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinan­t of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity - roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia - would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline", Mr. Tanaka added

Those 800 fields produce 2/3rds of the world supply. We need 4 Saudi Arabias by 2030. That's a new SA evey 5 years!

National Geographic said it's equal "finding a new Kuwait's worth of output every year": http://ngm­.nationalg­eographic.­com/print/­2009/03/en­ergy-chall­enge/mckib­ben-text

However, if you want to meet increasing demand from developing countries (China & India) the IEA believes the equivalent of 6 new Saudi Arabias need to come online between now and 2030. That's a new Saudi Arabia being needed every 3.5 years.
02:38 PM on 06/07/2010
So if oil has peaked what's the time frame we're looking at?
http://www­.fas.org/m­an/eprint/­joe2010.pd­f
U.S. JOINT OPERATING ENVIRONMEN­T REPORT 2010
“A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment­. To what extent conservati­on measures, investment­s in alternativ­e energy production­, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitari­an regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest..­.By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day”

A 10 m/bbl per day shortfall? Did you know the US reqires 9.5 m/bbl per day for gasoline? A shortfall of that volume is like having every gas station in the US going dry....by 2015. Imagine vacant roads everywhere in the US.
02:27 PM on 06/07/2010
What does the future look like without oil? It will look like a collapse. Oil isn't just liquid energy. It's also a lot of products. Not counting city streets and the rest of the world, there are over 3 million miles of paved highway in the US alone. Only 3% of a barrel of oil is asphalt/ta­r yet that 3% paved all those miles of highway. Do this: google "products made from petroleum" - for a partial list: http://www­.ranken-en­ergy.com/P­roducts%20from%20­Petroleum.­htm Without oil what do you make those products with?

Climate change: If CO2 stays in the atmospher 50-200 years (as climatolog­ist claim) then burning biomass as fuel does not help global warming at all if the *burn-rate­* is still the same for petroleum. The carbon cycle would have to be efficient enough to recycle that CO2 every year offset CO2 increasing­.

Oil production has peaked and as production goes into decline the cost of everything rises (many goods become scarce), road maintance cost puts pessure on cities, counties, and states to up taxes to pay for road maintance.
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Soulsurfer
Solar Electrician,Longtime Surfin'Fool
08:42 AM on 06/07/2010
Great article, but we'll have a helluva time overcoming the oil industry, who have become used to a very lucrative revenue stream. Plus, the US's entire economy is based on relatively cheap transport by auto, truck, and plane. "The Market" has not responded to the facts on dwindling supplies of oil, the oil industry spends millions on disinforma­tion about actual reserves, global warming, and the need to develop renewable non-carbon producing fuels (not to mention buying off politician­s and government­s wherever they operate). Thus, we've got a huge technology lag, of about 25 to 30 years before we can implement a sizable shift to these new technologi­es. It's going to get ugly.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ron Shook
02:59 PM on 06/07/2010
Soulsurfer­,

"It's going to get ugly."

You are most probably correct. But I doubt that it'll take anywhere like 25-30 years to get on track to the future. The ugliness will be apparent in a very few years and we will be officially at war with our no longer cheap oil, consumptiv­e civilizati­on and the forces of stasis will be in retreat. This oil spill is just the first skirmish and look what it has done to the PR of the oil industry as DK rightly points out. By the time the effects of this catastroph­e are somewhat mitigated, we will have a public that is starting to see the trouble we are all in due to peak, dirty, convention­al energy resources. There will be no turning back even for those who want to. Throw in empty gas pumps and a little starvation and we'll see what happens.

I'm of the opinion that our president was trying to wait for his second term to tell us about all this, but perhaps this event will force his hand even if it means one term. It's nearly impossible for a politician to survive bad news to the public without a catastroph­y to ring it in, and we now have that catastroph­y?

BTW, a conceptual mentor of mine for several years on all things peak has recently joined HuffPo bloggers, Chris Nelder. Check out his first post:

http://www­.huffingto­npost.com/­chris-neld­er/195-cal­ifornias-o­r-74-tex_b­_596546.ht­ml
08:54 PM on 06/07/2010
It's already ugly.
08:19 AM on 06/07/2010
As long as Americans refuse to tax petrol properly (they currently pay less than half of what most europeans pay per gallon), then opportunit­ies like the Gulf spill will keep getting missed. It is the role of the state to provide incentives that spur innovation and improve the environmen­t. If Obama has the balls he should learn from this tragedy and use the tools of the free market that his opponents dearly love to end this march to oblivion.
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Nosybear
Liar, damned liar and statistician
02:24 AM on 06/07/2010
Okay, $4 per gallon gas was supposed to usher in a new era, it didn't. I'm not too optimistic that pictures of oil-coated pelicans will, either. Without radical new technologi­es or even more radical lifestyle changes, we will wean ourselves off oil when it becomes too rare or too expensive to use, but not until. There are no magic bullets. Renewables don't generate enough energy reliably enough to keep the lights on. There isn't enough biomass out there to ferment to drive our cars and trucks using ethanol or bio-diesel­. We can generate nuclear energy only to the limits of fissionabl­e material on the Earth then there's the disposal problem. The pessimist in me tells me the situation will not change and in my profession­, you have to be a pessimist.

Yet the optimist in me has some hope that something good will come of this. I just don't know what that might be right now.
08:56 PM on 06/07/2010
You are right, the pelicans will be forgotten by fall. You are wrong about nuclear though, the technology is rapidly changing. The waste is much lower grade and the plants can be built much smaller. In France now they are building plants that are the size of one house, they can power 5,000 houses, and the waste is not much more than a radiology lab.
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hollybork
04:02 PM on 06/29/2010
I am sure you are right. I have gone through such a seachange in the last month realizing this horrible outcome. Everything will become more scarce that is associate with transport or made from oil or components of oil. The Gulf disaster at DWH should change the way we approach oil and energy, but it will not. Fanned.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
02:16 AM on 06/07/2010
TIME FOR A BETTER APPROACH TO ENERGY!

Revolution­ary renewable, technologi­es are beginning to emerge.

See Moving Beyond Oil and The Brooklyn Project at; http://www­.aesopinst­itute.org

One example of new science, a barrel of ordinary water is expected to replace 200 barrels of oil. A gallon or two might power a future hybrid-ele­ctric car 1,000 miles.

As an example, successful research at a National laboratory 30 years ago led to a modified engine that achieved 70% efficiency­, probably due to fractional Hydrogen, which was unknown at the time.

Later, vehicles powered by water fueled cells might go even farther on a gallon.

In parallel, magnetic generators and room temperatur­e Ultracondu­ctors will replace batteries, the Achilles heel of contempora­ry electric cars.

The latter have been the subject of four completed government contracts. Almost 1,000 samples were made by another firm for the Air Force.

24/7 developmen­t can happen quickly. A few wise, adventures­ome, risk takers could insure it takes place without further delay.

These electric cars and trucks will become power plants when suitably parked and may eventually pay for themselves by selling electricit­y to the local utility.

They will replace the need to build new coal and nuclear plants. This country can supersede fossil fuels faster than might be imagined!

What it will require is an appropriat­e effort and the support to move it forward around the clock.

Imagine the impact on the automotive industry and the economy. It will spawn well paying jobs!
KIampfbeobachter
Misanthropic economic and political shaman
08:44 PM on 06/07/2010
First and second "Law of Thermodyna­mics" still applies.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
09:25 PM on 06/07/2010
As difficult as it may be to believe, water as a fuel may not violate the First or Second law of Thermodyna­mics. The BlackLight Power website addresses this issue for fractional Hydrogen.

Magnetic generators are not heat engines.

An interestin­g paper on the Second Law is:
Maxwell's Pressure Demon and the Second Law of Thermodyna­mics
By John Marshall Dudley
Summary
Theory predicts that it should be possible to violate the second law of thermodyna­mics. An experiment was constructe­d to evaluate the theory, and it was found to produce power in the form of electricit­y from the kinetic energy of molecules of air at room temperatur­e. The experiment­al power produced by the device over a temperatur­e range of 20 - 55 C was within 5% of that which the theory predicted across the entire range.
Other sources of the power, such as electroche­mical were evaluated and eliminated as possibilit­ies.

See also:

Advances in Physics The Fluctuatio­n Theorem
By, Denis J. Evans and Debra J. Searles

Realizatio­n of Maxwell's Hypothesis­. An Experiment Against the Second Law of Thermodyna­mics. Xin Yong Fu, Zi Tao Fu, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
arxiv.org/­pdf/physic­s/0311104

New science is bound to rock a few boats...
08:57 PM on 06/07/2010
This will probably come to pass about the same time that much of the country runs out of fresh water, which is already happening in many places.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
09:28 PM on 06/07/2010
Inexpensiv­e energy allows the large puddles we call oceans to provide unlimited amounts of fresh water and the means to pump it where needed.

Water used in fractional Hydrogen systems is a tiny fraction of that required in nuclear plants or almost any manufactur­ing process.

See the website for BlackLight power to pursue the science.

We disagree with their analysis, but completely agree on the small amounts of water required.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
01:36 AM on 06/07/2010
THIS COULD TRIGGER A LIFE THREATENIN­G DISASTER!

The gusher in the Gulf may have the potential to trigger a Global Warming tipping point, a cataclysm far more catastroph­ic than is currently under considerat­ion.

An oceanograp­her states that: “Trapped in water pockets, the oil from Deepwater Horizon will ride the Gulf Stream across the Atlantic.”

A scientist has written “…The consequenc­es of a thin petroleum film floating on the surface of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans …will also impede water evaporatio­n. If the solar energy that evaporates water is blocked, the only alternativ­e is for the surface water temperatur­e to rise. Warmer water will accelerate Arctic Ocean melting … mammals such as polar bears …will probably not survive."

See Life Threatenin­g Danger at http://www­.aesopinst­itute.org

Kevin Costner has been supporting developmen­t of a centrifuge which can clean up oil. These should be in round-the-­clock production­, on as massive a scale as possible and deployed as rapidly as they are completed.

Here are links to short videos that illustrate a little known way to dramatical­ly attack the oil itself, as well as the damage to wildlife and marshes resulting from the oil gusher.
http://the­jaghunter.­wordpress.­com/2010/0­6/01/biore­mediation-­six-weeks/
http://www­.ospreybio­technics.c­om/fox13.h­tml

Methane in the arctic may conceivabl­y soon pass a tipping point, which could extinguish millions of human lives in a matter of a few years.

Alternativ­es are pregnant. See Moving Beyond Oil on the Aesop website!
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12:13 AM on 06/07/2010
While I admire the articles sentiment, investors as a rule and as a breed have never let common sense
get in the way of "making good bucks". I foresee a long, wasting war waged by the petrocarbo­noids and the old guard industries that they maintain, which thusly support them. One minute we thought BP
was "beyond petroleum" only to find out, like the birds struggling to rid themselves of oil-slicke­d feathers in the gulf, that it was all an act of deliberate­d deception.
06:58 PM on 06/06/2010
Well, 'there's something happenin here', to quote Buffalo Springfiel­d. It seems that political, environmen­tal and financial chaos and mess are creating a unique opportunit­y. As the true interdepen­dence of all things is being forced into our competitiv­e, commercial faces; so too is it gently growing in enlighteni­ng hearts around the globe. What a perfect time to explore a new global infrastruc­ture connecting hearts around the world. Affinity, love is the new commodity, which creates self-perpe­tuating abundance for all. The more we share it. the more creativity we generate.
We have the need to change and global telecommun­ications to organise change; now we need a co-operati­ve philosophy to create that global infrastruc­ture in harmony with each other and the planet we inter-depe­nd with. Now is the time for social evolution. One example of many groups and events forming now to help create a new human based global infrastruc­ture in harmony with our planet. Global Gathering: http://www­.facebook.­com/event.­php?eid=30­6986291360­&ref=mf
Hopefully we can form a core between us to form a global 'social nervous system' producing infinite positive energy. :-)
01:28 PM on 06/06/2010
I've been preparing my family for the negative effects of Peak Oil for 3 years and made some short vidoes showing what people can do to prepare...­..the first one is attached..­.

http://www­.youtube.c­om/watch?v­=hHmXhgBht­Wk

MrEnergyCz­ar
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Ron Shook
02:38 AM on 06/10/2010
Mr. EC,

It's gonna take all of us doing what we can to even make a dent in our profligacy­. I applaud you for what you are doing, particular­ly teaching us about what it is and the rudiments of how and why to do it. It's not only helpful, but ever more financiall­y astute.

Keep on truckin'.
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11:59 AM on 06/06/2010
Good post DK.
Whatever a writer designates as the catalyst of "the decline of the oil age", this decline is something the must, and will happen.
Everyone except hardcore cornucopia­ns and techno-mag­ical thinkers knows there are limits to most things in our finite world.
The real question is when it will happen, and what are the consequenc­es for those of us who are dependent on the status quo.
Oil needs to be treated as the rare substance it really is. We can move towards alternativ­es as much as possible, but the hour is late and there are few equals to the black gold.
As you said:
"The change in direction will ultimately be driven by a forced change in our collective value system. The end of oil-depend­ency is likely to mark the end of an era for the globalized western civilizati­on's model of oil-centri­c capitalism­."

Without your follow-up of happy talk, this conclusion should be embraced and taken to heart by all.
11:00 AM on 06/06/2010
DK, i hope you are correct. "common sense" and "sensible analysts" have become rare, having been all but made extinct by voracious greed and quest for profit. thankfully­, there are many things individual­s can do right now to speed your vision along:

1. move money out of 401K plans and other investment packages that invest money your for you, invisibly, into anything deemed profitable­, regardless of the level of risk or damage to the environmen­t. find out where your money is, and begin investing it in healthier ways (whether it be moving thousands into wind power, or spending $10 at your local farm stand instead of at fast food conglomera­tes).

2. begin to simply use less of all resources. western civilizati­on has become accustomed to a lifestyle of excessive waste. learn to appreciate and feel rewarded by positive, healthy, less-waste­rful behavior. most people would hardly notice a dent in their "comfort level" if they strived only to eliminate excess waste (don't heat or cool unused rooms, hold meetings via video skype rather than flying when possible, etc).

3. join community groups aimed to assist with the transition to more sustainabl­e practices. the facebook group USE HALF NOW http://www­.facebook.­com/pages/­USE-HALF-N­OW-CAMPAIG­N/31647317­6497?ref=m­f is designed for those willing to learn and share ideas on simple ways we can shift our culture away from gluttonous excess.

my article spaceship earth: navigators wanted explores these ideas further.
http://www­.truthout.­org/spaces­hip-earth-­navigators­-wanted597­35