Schwarzenegger, Like Bush, Stuck in Low Gear

Exhibition season is over in the California gubernatorial race. Next week marks the start of the real post Labor Day Campaign between Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Treasurer Phil Angelides.

What's happened since the June 6 primary, where Phil was down 13 points about two months before dispatching with fellow Democrat Steve Westly?

The most important occurrence has been the unprecedented spending by the Schwarzenegger campaign and the California Republican Party ... almost all of it expended for the purpose of attacking Phil. So far, it adds up to $20 million combined from the Bush/Schwarzenegger (B/S) attack team and the California Republican Party.

That compares to $6.5 million spent by the Angelides Campaign and the California Democratic Party.

The result of this three-to-one onslaught? Schwarzenegger, like Bush, is mired (one might say "quagmired") with bad poll numbers. Bush hovers around 39 and Arnold just a tad higher in the low to mid 40s. This is nothing new. Both Bush and Arnold have been there for well over a year.

The truth is the Schwarzenegger attack team took a big gamble spending so excessively so early. An average of the polls released since the Primary shows Schwarzenegger at 46% and Angelides at 38%. The only conclusion that you can draw is that the Schwarzenegger gambit hasn't paid off. Schwarzenegger will wish he had that $20 million to spend in October.

An analysis of the numbers shows strong potential growth for State Treasurer Angelides among Democrats, Declined to States, Women, Older Voters, Southern Californians, and Latinos. According to a Public Policy Institue poll released Wednesday, Independents lean Democratic 49% to 25% who lean Republican.

On the flip side, Schwarzenegger shows very little growth potential. He is getting all the Republicans he can get. Any Republican incumbent who is stuck in the mid forties on Labor Day is headed for November retirement.

2006 will be a partisan and polarized election and that will benefit Democrat Phil Angelides. As the spending gap closes and the Angelides campaign and the California Democrats make their case, Arnold Schwarzenegger better fasten his political seat belt; he is headed for a rough two months.