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Donnie Fowler Headshot

Who's Got a Bigger Operation?

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Sounds vaguely pornographic, huh?

I did some research on the Romney & Obama field operation for my regular appearance with Jennifer Granholm's War Room. In the midst of huge spin by Team Romney about their GOTV efforts, here are some supporting and contradicting numbers with a few links at the bottom.

Total Field Offices: Obama 3-to-1

Under the lemonade stand theory of sales, TV ads don't deliver the lemonade, lemonade stands do. The same is true for GOTV.

  • U.S.: Obama -- 755 field offices / Romney -- 283 field offices
  • Ohio: Obama -- over 120 field offices / Romney -- 40 field offices
  • Florida: 102 / 48
  • Iowa: 66 / 13
  • Virginia: 47 / 29

Total Voter Contacts: Romney 50 Percent Increase in 5 Days?!?

Romney says they have 45 million voter contacts as of Oct. 23. Good for them, but if you count an email as a contact, then those big numbers don't look so good. Door knocks matter more and they're impressive for Romney if true -- nine million door knocks. But note that the GOP says that only five days earlier on Oct. 19 that they had 34 million contacts and six million door knocks. They did not increase 50 percent in five days. There's a lot of desperate-feeling spin going on about field operations that combines nicely with Team Romney's insistence that their momentum is delivering the election for them. If you gotta brag about how big your gloves are...

Hey, Ohio, Have You Heard from a Campaign?: Obama +7

Meanwhile, Team Obama ain't giving out numbers of voter contacts and doors knocked. But when pollsters in Ohio asked voters if they have heard from the campaign:

  • Heard from Team Obama in Ohio? 36 percent
  • Heard from Team Romney in Ohio? 29 percent

Early Vote: Obama Even in Florida, 3:2 -- Advantage in Iowa & North Carolina

As many as one-third of voters have cast early ballots in several battleground states and in most cases the Democrats are tied or turning in significantly more ballots than the Republicans. Percentage of ballots requested or sent:

  • Florida: Republicans 41 percent / Democrats 40 percent
  • Iowa: Republicans 31 percent / Democrats 44 percent
  • North Carolina: Republicans 32 percent / Democrats 48 percent
  • Ohio: a larger percentage of "Democrats" have voted early in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) than Republicans, compared to their base registration statistics.

None of these voter contact and early vote numbers guarantee an Obama victory, but in the last thirteen days, these are huge indicators of what's really happening on the ground in the midst of massive spinning, especially by Team Romney, and which team is better prepared to drive their base out in this base turnout election.