Avoiding a Convention Train Wreck

Anyone who thinks the battle for the Democratic nomination isn't heading for a train wreck hasn't looked closely at the results of Super Tuesday.

Paul Kane from the Washington Post has done the math:

There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.

What that means is a nomination fight brokered at the convention by super-delegates. At best, a lot of backroom dealing and arm-twisting will eventually produce a majority of delegates for the candidate who comes in with the most delegates pledged in the voting process. By then however, it will be late August and Democrats will have spent the entire summer fighting with each other instead of focusing on how to defeat John McCain. For the Democratic nominee, it may well be too late.

And that's the best case scenario. What if either Obama or Clinton comes out of the primary process with a pledged delegate lead, but is denied the nomination by super delegates? Maybe the party elders will decide in their great wisdom that Obama is more electable or Clinton deserves it more, or maybe the losing candidate will simply twist arms harder or promise more. In either case, the result could rip the party apart as a good and strong candidate who has won the primary/caucus process gets deprived of the nomination. And what if the yet to be named "credentials" committee decides to seat a Michigan delegation even though Obama kept his name off the ballot out of respect for the party's decision and these votes swing the election to Clinton? It could be 1968 in Chicago all over again.

Is there any way to avoid this train wreck? Yes, but only if super delegates and rank and file Democrats act fast. The virtual tie right now in pledged delegates offers what philosopher John Rawls famously called a "veil of ignorance." No one knows right now who will win the race for pledged delegates, it is clear only that the system picked by the Democratic party to avoid a train wreck is heading straight toward one. If the super delegates wanted to they could agree now to this simple pledge: "In my capacity as a super delegate, I will vote for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, depending on who wins the most pledged delegates in the primary and caucus process established by the Democratic Party." If 100 or 150 super delegates signed such a pledge (and there are 400 or so currently not supporting either candidate right now), such a block should be sufficient to swing the nomination to the winning candidate.

The problem of course is that this is asking to super delegates to give up the significant amount of power their position suddenly entails. The lure of a promised vote, project or prized appointment can awful strong. That's where rank and file Democrats could play a role. These super delegates hold a position of trust in the party, a position bestowed upon them, in one way or another, by members of the party. It would seem fair for these party members to ask these super delegates what they are doing to avoid a convention fight in August that could doom the party's chances in November.

There may be times when it is appropriate for super delegates of either party to broker the choice of a nominee. If a scandal erupts after one candidate has won a majority of the pledged delegates, for example. But with two strong and popular candidates waging a fierce but fair nomination battle, this seems like a case where democracy should be allowed to work its course.

Comments

[darkladyofala]

Amen! A brokered convention could very well be in the offing; and this could be a good thing for the party and the people, if the people prevail, we can go on and put all we have behind the nominee whomever it turns out to be.

However, if the 'super delegates' intervene and take the choice out of our hands, tenuous as that grip may be, there could be a split so deep as to give McCain the presidency on a plate! That is the nightmare we must avoid! Amen.

[RobHoff]

This seems easy to fix - the Super Delegates must vote in line with their constituencies, novel thought I know, why on earth would they feel compelled to start doing that. However, the powers that be will fight tooth and nail against such a mandate.

[maddashell-womaninj]

How about this instead? "In my capacity as a super delegate, I will vote for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, depending on who wins the POPULAR VOTE in the primary and caucus process established by the Democratic Party." In my system the true winner of the Primary and Caucus system would take the Super Delegates' votes. That's how it should be. From a heart broken John Edwards believer in NJ. I am so sad, I just can't believe that the media is given so much power in this country still. We have got to have a media station on television dedicated to the nominees and their policies, with restrictions only that they present their policies, discuss their accomplishments/actions, their votes, their beliefs. Nothing charged for coverage and rotate the timeframes amongst the candidates so they all get primetime coverage. CBS, NBC, and ABC have just way too much power and it sickens me.

[vsign]

No Affirmative Action! Voters need a new Voting Rights Act!

Internet users are bleeding into mainstream media and causing voters not to have the ability to use their vote to hire the best person for the job of president.

Not all the voters have decided how to use their vote yet. Not all the states have voted. The media, however, is talking about what the internet users want to talk about. The voters are not being heard - just the internet users. We are being told our votes won't count because of super delegates.

Affirmative action is being used by Obama so we cannot conduct a proper interview process between Hillary and Obama. Voters are being asked to overlook Obama's voting record on Iraq and a small resume and the differences in policies. Voters are being asked to give Obama an advantage because of his race. If we criticize him in any way, we are told we are playing the race card.

Obama wants us to not be critical of his record and resume and just vote with our hearts. Obama wants affirmative action! Tell Obama to stand on his own two feet and not make us carry him.

Vote against Obama!

[Loeb]

It is more than appropriate to passionately
believe in YOUR candidate. It is immature to
think ONLY your candidate, as true blue as
ever, is the answer.

I have serious doubts about Hillary (HRC).
On l.labor issues 2.globalization 3.so-called
"free-trade" (whose benefits go to the rich)
4. protecting jobs in the US 5. diplomacy
(working within the UN, creating a nuclear-
free zone in all of the mid-east under IAEA
random monitoring---including Israel)
6.recognition of the elected resistance movt.
in Gaza 7.working with Iran etc. Universal
health care based on PROGRESSIVE taxes (=
"Medicare for All") not more $$$ to private
companies.

But I am NOT going to hand over our government
to more Bush-like years. Grow up!!

Also, despite my many differences HRC is one hell of a campaigner. O is a show for those
who forget their "civic duties" when the curtain goes down.

[xrazorbax]

www.ronpaul2008.com send his ideas to your hopeful president so we can fix OUR country.

[xrazorbax]

End fed res,cut 160,00 fed jobs,secure borders,bring all military home,get the budget to the year 2000 and Ron Paul can run the govt. with 1%tax will any others do this?

see his plan so you know what your missing

www.ronpaul2008.com

[xrazorbax]

Doesnt matter who wins,they all have the same agenda to sell out the American people!!If there on TV 24/7 and win kiss your freedoms goodbye,govt will grow,we will get taxed more and be regulated more.WTG land of the FREE (to be blind)

[xrazorbax]

"If the American people ever allow private banks (the Federal Reserve Banks) to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.." --Thomas Jefferson

[xrazorbax]

"If the American people ever allow private banks (the Federal Reserve Banks) to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.." --Thomas Jefferson...and thats whats really going on there is but only ONE choice..the CONSTITUTION,dont let them keep takjing OUR freedoms away,dont believe their false promises,dont let the media (corprate war machine)sway your vote.Who has the media tried to avoid the most,who has recieved the most military donations,Ron Paul has more military support and donations than ALL the rest COMBINED.Why do you think the Media dont want you to know the truth.Wake up people,dont let them FOOL you again..demand paper votes,diebold is a rigged voting system!

[mnmills]

What do you all think about a widely circulated petition to be signed by Obama supporters swearing to vote for him as a "write-in" candidate should he be denied the nomination by Superdelegates? Does anyone know of such a petition. If not, what would be the best way to proceed?

[sschl727]

That's a joke right?

[LeoMarvin]

What in your experience would make you think he's joking?

[TommyD]

I simply can not understand all of this weak and scared thinking. In 2000 and 2004 we had candidates who simply refused to fight. One refused to fight for the the election that he won and one waited far too long to respond to the lie filled attack on his honorable and heroic service in Viet Nam.

Now we have two wonderful candidates who have for the most part fought hard but have tried to keep things civil between them. Both of them have acted honorably. But all around them are Democrats yelling that the sky is falling because a close race is happening. Get over it little children and let the system do what it is designed to do. This is not about a certain candidate. No this is about eventually rallying around the one picked by our party to fight against the Republicans in the Fall for the right to move our Republic in a direction of healing and progressive values that once again puts the common good of the people and commonwealth of the nation ahead of the current policies of using fear to try and spread a form of impearialism all over the world.

[Rosey]

I can just hear Snarky Bill Clinton sliming Barack Obama even more now that Hillary is clearly no longer the leader. It is shameful for all of us Democrats that he has become Hillary's appointed Attack Dog with her approval. This along with the Super Delegate idiocy is only going to show the world we Democrats are as devisive and wussy and ugly as ever. We are pitiful if we cannot get our act together and elect a Democrat. 8 more years of a disgraceful leader who cares only for the wealthy few and corporations makes me ill. We need a leader who cares for the envrionment, the poor - hungry - homeless, small businesses as well as big ones, civil rights for all and one who cares to restore the United States as a country LOVED by all (well, okay, by most) and wants to unite us to work together for the good of all people. That person is a Democrat. John McCain's pandering to the far right is disgusting but he stands a real chance of election. Hillary is hated by over 50% of the country. She cannot win without red states but her supporters do not seem to get this crucial point. Oh well, enough of my ranting. I cringe that we will see President McCain for 8 years!

[togan]

Gore, we need you. Please endorse Obama, and get this thing over with.

[DougC]

Good article. The Dems have to fix this mess now, one way or the other, or they can forget about winning the Presidency next fall.... and they would deserve that fate. I gave up on the Dems in 2000 with Gore's foolish campaign and became an independent....,pre people should do the same.