Bolton's Sleazy Attack on the NIE

John Bolton's attack in today's WaPo on the Iran NIE and its unwelcome conclusion that Iran stopped work related to nuclear weapons in fall 2003 makes it clear that the Cheney faction is furious at the intelligence community and still trying to discredit its primary judgment.

Bolton was an integral part of the neoconservative cabal's efforts to promote a policy of military force against Iran before he left the administration a year ago. Unlike the rantings of Norman Podhoretz', his views reflect his continuing contact with the neoconservatives still on Cheney's team.

As we should expect, Bolton's attack is full of dishonest arguments, and it reveals the desperation of the war party.

Bolton leads with the same argument that Bush has chosen to emphasize -- that there is no essential difference between "military" and "civilian" nuclear programs. Bolton thus seeks to deny that he and others in the administration tried to make the alleged evidence of such a weapons program a major issue in the past.

Bolton hopes that people will forget that it was precisely the suspicion of such a program that the Bush administration used to justify its position at the IAEA that Iran is not entitled to exercise its right under the NPT to enrich uranium.

Here's Bolton in June 2004 testimony before a House Committee, Bolton: "The Iranian nuclear weapons program should be referred to the U.N. Security Council as a threat to international peace and security."

And again in an August 2004 speech, Bolton declared that Iran "has concealed a large-scale, covert nuclear weapons program for over eighteen years...."

Significantly, Bolton and other U.S. officials later stopped using such clear-cut language. Instead they talked about legitimate U.S. suspicions of such a program. Bolton's successor as Undersecretary of state for Arms Control, Robert G. Joseph, was asked in June 2005 if Iran had a nuclear weapons program underway. Joseph answered, "I don't know quite how to answer that because we don't have perfect information or perfect understanding. But the Iranian record, plus what the Iranian leaders have said...lead us to conclude that we have to be highly skeptical."

Bolton then attacks the suggestion in the NIE that Iran might forego nuclear weapons if the United States offered security assurances and other political concessions, charging that this analytical point represents a "political bias" on the part of the analysts.

Right. And asserting that Iran would cave in if threatened with war, as Bolton seems to be arguing by suggesting that he only "pressure" on Iran in 2003 was the U.S. invasion of Iraq, presumably represent complete and utter objectivity.

Then Bolton picks up the same argument that was used by Dick Cheney to pressure the intelligence community for several months last spring and summer to back off its conclusion: that the evidence they had produced in support of it was all part of a clever Iranian "deception campaign". The intelligence community was forced to spend many weeks proving to the White House that it was not an Iranian ruse. And at least some intelligence analysts were complaining privately in October that they were still meeting resistance to publishing the estimate that had been drafted.

Cheney failed utterly to break the unity of the analytical community on this point, which is why the language of the estimate was strong and clear.

In the past the neoconservatives have seen intelligence community as a "soft target" which they could both attack with relative impunity and bend to their will. They succeeded in cowing much of the community into submission in 2002, when the Iraq NIE, completed in just nineteen days, said Saddam Hussein had active WMD programs, despite the lack of evidence to support that conclusion. Los Angeles Times reporter Bob Drogin writes in his excellent new book Curveball that the analysts had been given "clear marching orders" and quotes one of them as saying, "The going-in assumption was we were going to war so this NIE was to be written with that in mind".

That represented a humiliating defeat for the professionals at the CIA and other intelligence agencies. That's part of the reason why, when faced with pressure from Cheney's people to back away from a conclusion the White House didn't like this time around, the analytical community held its ground.

The chickens hatched in that ruthless 2002 exercise have now come home to roost. A united intelligence community can have an impact on the political process when it refuses to cave in. The Bolton attack on it underlines the fact that the war party knows that the release of the NIE represents a cataclysmic political defeat for its strategy.

Comments

[MajorKong]

Mr. Porter. When you mention John Bolton "sleazy" is pretty much assumed. Just trying to save you a few keystrokes.

[TedLaw]

Let me tell you why the Repugs have been able to do so well the last decade to 15 years. Bolton is a good example. The guy is a total dick, but he's a passionate ideologue. He knows what he thinks about everything. Does he sit and rant on the internet? No way. A guy like that is too valuable. He doesnt even have to get a real job, which might distract him from reading newspapers and getting impassioned all day long and ready to rant on TV. No, the guy is given a "job" - a fellowship at the American Enterprise Institute. So he's paid to sit around and think up conservative thoughts. Gee, you wonder, how can AEI afford to do that? Cuz rich people and corporations give money to AEI to do just that. Where are the liberal/progressive think tanks filled with impassioned democrats? Oh yes, there are a couple, but basically liberals dont have the cold hard cash to pay for this sort of crap. They should work on that. As long as Bolton doesnt ever have to get a real job, he'll continue to rant illogically. As long as he rants illogically, he'll have a job with AEI. And Fox news, even CNN and MSNBC, will continue to put him on TV because its less expensive to put a free talking head on TV than to actually investigate and report facts.

[lgillooly]

Impeach,Im­peach,Impe­ach,Impeac­h,Impeach,­Impeach
PLEASE

[Economike]

Adios, Senor Chinchilla Lip.

[ljsfolly]

This Bolton is the same one who thought the UN should be destroyed until he was appointed to it. He has a history of being a lap dog for cheney and he has tried for years to make the US look as bad as he can while doing their agenda of war and hate. How many of this administration have trouble with sleeping at the cost to all the world of their warmongering and the deaths of so many as a result of their lies? none

[BrickSykes]

This is somewhat beside the point, but I'd like to see how much taxpayer money is being spent just GUARDING "President" Bush. There must be a full Company of hardened Infantry, or more, surrounding him, heavily armed with all antennae out to interrupt any assassination attempt. The White House must know that there are many, many millions of Americans who simply wish him Dead! While I don't particularly wish him Dead, per se, I sure would like to see America operate, without him, like in the "old days."

I'd also be interested to know what it feels like knowing that you are the most despised person on the face of the Earth. Certainly it is as true, or more so, with Dick Cheney. Perhaps Katie Couric or Tom Brokaw will ask him some day. How could these human beings ever consider doing what they have done? And, there is no question that they knew there'd be serious repercussions to the kind of heinous actions they've willfully taken!

Disgraceful and despicable! I also wonder if they considered that it would cost American Conservatives their entire PARTY!!

When the whole story of all the deals that were made by BushCo et al, there will simply be NO PLACE for a so-called "Republican Party" in America, for many, many decades.

IMHO, of course...

Brick

[avergejoe]

The title is redundant.

[WorkingClass]

The CIA never did like being Cheney's bitch. Now they have scored a direct hit. Bolton and Dershowitz lying bluster notwithstanding.

[dantheman]

The Neocons should be rounded up, arrested, charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity, and excuted if they are found guilty. Except I don't support the death penalty so they should receive life in prion. Lucky for them I'm a liberal.

[MSB]

The neo-cons in power need to go to prison.

These folks are criminals by just about any definition.

[Senzasord]

John Bolton has been the administration hatchet man and human wrecking ball for years in every position he ever held. Back when he was undersecretary of state, he effectively destroyed the Arms Control and Disarmament agency and made sure that there would be no effective U.S. participation in the International Atomic Energy Agency because such things would mean cooperating with other countries.
Now he lashes out at the career employees in the several intelligence agencies complaining that their assessments have a political bias and they are all a bunch of disgruntled employees. He bemoans the fact that as carrer employees they are "difficult" to fire. He has made war on career employees since he came into government prefering appointed political hacks who serve for the pleasure of the administration and who can be removed at a moment's notice, like U.S. attorneys in the the Justice Department.
Consider that the career employees of the intelligence bureaus stake their reputations on getting it right. They are charged with presenting the truth, not with presenting the expedient.
While Mr. Bolton may find that this is a dammned nuisance, the rest of America can take comfort in the fact that at least now these men and women are still stepping up and doing the job they were supposed to do and have not buckled under administration bullying.

Illigitimi non carborundum!

[ebent1]

Of all the neo cons who have had a moment of fame, Bolton will be the first to fade out of sight. He was a hack before being "elevated" to the inner circle, and is still a hack.

[DemandTruth]

Ayup. Alan Dershowitz hits those same Repub talking points a few threads over as John Bolton. They're thorough with the propaganda. Gotta givem that. Ridiculous!

[lisakaz]

Neocons gone wild. Sleazy tho is kinda an "intro to the obvious" description, no?

[radiclib]

You can't blame Bolton for being mad.

The right-wing war-whores use ``intelligence'' information when it serves their propaganda purposes.

They can't stand it when it undermines their urge to drop bombs, destroy things, kill people, steal oil and waste money.

We need to get through another 14 months until a Democratic president takes office and a Democratic Congress gets sworn in.

No, Democrats are not perfect and many of them are craven. But change is needed and it must happen.
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