Lieberman-Kyl vs. the Evidence

The Lieberman-Kyle amendment has just passed the Senate overwhelmingly after two sections were removed to satisfy Democrats that it will not serve as a backdoor authorization for war against Iran, using U.S. forces operating in Iran. Even after that compromise, it remains a poison chalice, because it endorses a set of "findings" that are fundamentally false and which are being used by the administration to lay the groundwork for a more aggressive policy toward Iran .

The amendment is based on the Bush administration's proxy war narrative which has been filling the news media for the past nine months. It cites General Petraeus's classic statement of the proxy war argument of September 12: "[I]t is increasingly apparent...that Iran through the use of the Iranian Republican [sic] Guard Corps Quds Force, seeks to turn the Sh'ia militia extremists into a Hezbollah-like force to serve its interests and fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq".

It is not unreasonable to view the proxy war narrative as the equivalent for Iran of the infamous White House Iraq Group's carefully contrived -- and stunningly successful -- fall campaign in 2002 to prepare public opinion to support an invasion of Iraq.

The following six points summarize some -- but certainly not all -- of the evidence contradicting the line on which the poisonous Liberman-Kyl amendment is based.

1. The administration has not come forward with a single piece of concrete evidence to support the claim that the Iranian government has been involved in the training, arming or advising of Iraqi Shiite militias.

o At the February 11, 2007 briefing, officials displayed one EFP and some fragments but did not claim that there was any forensic evidence linking that or any other AFP to Iran.

o One of the briefers admitted that it was only Iraqi smugglers who brought weapons into Iraq, explaining why no direct Iranian involvement could be documented.

o The official briefer who was a specialist on explosives, Maj. Marty Weber, claimed in a later interview that the use of "passive infrared sensors" in the deployment of EFPs in Iraq was "one of the strongest markers of Iranian involvement" in the traffic. But he admitted in the same interview that the electronic components needed to make the sensors found in Iraq were "easily available off the shelf at places like RadioShack.

o Another official who participated in the briefing, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, denied that the military was claiming that Iran was behind the traffic in arms to Iraq. He said in a follow-up press briefing on February 14, "What we are saying is that within Iran, that these EFP component parts are being manufactured. Within Iran weapons and munitions are being manufactured that are ending up in Iraq. And we are asking the Iranian government to assist in stopping that from happening. There's no intent to do anything other than that."

o Although one of the official briefers said shipments of EFPs had been intercepted at the border in 2005, only one press report about such a border interceptions has appeared, and there was no indication that such interceptions had produced any evidence of Iranian involvement. On the contrary, it quoted "coalition officials" as saying there was "no evidence to suggest that the government in Tehran is facilitating the smuggling of shape charges into Iraq." Despite that alleged interception, Pentagon spokesman Lawrence DiRita and Brig Gen. Carter Ham, deputy director for regional operations for the Joint Staff, continued to deny any knowledge of official Iranian complicity in EFP or any other arm supplies.

o Despite interrogations since last spring of a top official of an alleged Iraqi EFP network and the Hezbollah operative who was a liaison with the organization, Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, the U.S. Commander for southern Iraq, where most of the Shiite militias operate, admitted in a July 6 briefing that his troops had not captured "anybody that we can tie to Iran"

o On September 8, the commander for the northern region of Iraq, Maj. Gen. Thomas Turner II, admitted in a press briefing, "I don't think we have any specific proof of Iranians in our area other than reports. We have discovered caches....It has not been a lot. We have seen some evidence of some weapons that were employed against coalition forces that were made in...Iran, where they are coming from across the border, we're not sure."

o Despite the assertion by Gen. David Petraeus on September 12, quoted in the proposed Lieberman-Kyle amendment, that the U.S. military obtained evidence of the complicity of Iranian officials in arming and training Shiite militias from interrogations of the above detainees, it has not produced wither detainee or any transcript of the interrogations. Nor has it released a direct quote from either detainee. No apparent intelligence reason exists for withholding such evidence from Congress and the public.

o Despite Petraeus' assertion in September that the United States obtained "hard evidence" incriminating Iran from computer hard drives seized when the above detainees were captured March 22 , none of the documentation has been made public, nor have any specifics have been provided on what the files show. Earlier both Petraeus and Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner had discussed the contents of the 22-page memorandum as detailing the planning preparation, approval and conduct of military operations by the Shiite militia organization but without claiming that it showed any Iranian role in any of those activities.

2. The U.S. intelligence community has not endorsed the argument being made by some in the Bush administration that the Iranian government was responsible for the rise in Shiite military activity in Iraq.

o The National Intelligence Estimate, a brief summary of which was released to the public February 2 contradicted the official argument, stating, "Iraq's neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics."

o Instead of stating clear that Iran had provided weapons or training to Shiite militias, the NIE offered a more ambiguous formula that "Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq." That formula, according to veterans of the NIE process, probably represents a negotiated compromise, indicating that some agencies refused to endorse the claim that Iran was supply weapons to Iraqi Shiites.

3. The main argument made in the February 11, 2007 briefing for an Iranian official role in providing EFPs to Shiite militias -- the allegation that only Iran had the capability to manufacture EFPs or components for EFPs that can penetrate U.S. armor -- was quickly proven to be untrue.

o As early as mid-2005, U.S. military intelligence officials had already concluding that they believe the technology for making such armor-penetrating bombs was "spreading among a variety of insurgent groups," obviously including Sunni insurgents with no ties to Iran or Hezbollah. At least one insurgent cell in Baghdad was already "attempting to make the charges locally."

o Israeli intelligence reported that Hamas guerrillas manufactured high grade EFPs during 2006 which were used in attacks on Israeli Defense Forces in four separate incidents in September and November 2006. The shaped charges penetrated eight inches of steel armor.

o Senior military officials in Baghdad told a reporter days after the February 11 briefing that U.S. forces had been finding an "increasing number of advanced roadside bombs being not just assembled but manufactured in machine shops." One official was quoted as saying that the impact of those Iraqi-machined EFPs on armored vehicles "isn't as clean but they are almost as effective" as the EFPs being imported.

o Journalist Andrew Cockburn reported in February that in November 2006 U.S. troops raiding a Baghdad machine shop had discovered a pile of copper discs "stamped out as part of what was clearly an ongoing order"

o Maj. Marty Weber, the explosives expert who was one of the three briefers in the February 11 briefing, admitted in an interview with The New York Times less than two weeks later that "You can never be certain" that the cooper discs for the EFPs could not be manufactured with the required precision in Iraq.

o U.S. troops found a cache of components, including concave copper discs, for making EFPs in February 2007, in which the PVC tubes of varying widths appeared to have come from the open market, raising the likelihood that the liners were being manufactured locally so that they would be the right size to fit the discs.

o Another bomb-making factory discovered by U.S. troops in late February was reported to have forced U.S. officials to "reassess their belief that such bombs were being built in Iran and smuggled fully assembled into Iraq."

4. U.S. and British Military officers and civilian officials have expressed doubt that EFPs and other armaments in the hands of Shiites have actually come from Iran or that Iranian Quds force personnel have been involved in the supply.

o British Defence Secretary Des Browne said in an interview in August 2006, "I have not seen any evidence -- and I don't think any evidence exists -- of government-supported or instigated armed support on Iran's part in Iraq."

o Lt. Col. David Labouchere, commander of a few hundred British troops which began in late August 2006 to search the Iran-Iraq border for evidence of Iranian supply of weapons to Iraqi Shiites, said in October, "I suspect there's nothing out there. And I intend to prove it."

o "[S]ome military analysts have concluded there is no concrete evidence of...a link" between the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Shiite militias fighting U.S. troops, according to a Washington Post report published August 20, 2007.

5. The Quds Force of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the administration has claimed is the instrument of the alleged Iranian "proxy war" in Iraq, has apparently been withdrawn from Iraq.

o In the same testimony to the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees on September 11 in which he stated the proxy war argument, Gen. David Petraeus also said, "[T]he Qods Force itself -- we believe, by [and] large, those individuals have been pulled out of the country, as have the Lebanese Hezbollah trainers that were being used to augment that activity.

6. There is a substantial body of evidence that the Hezbollah in Lebanon -- not Iran -- has been the main source, if not the only source, of EFPs and other weapon used by Shiite militias in 2006 and 2007.

o Hezbollah was using EFPs to attack Israel Defense Forces armored vehicles as early as 1997 and provided EFP expertise to Palestinian militant groups after the start of the Intifada in 2000 (Michael Knights, Jane's Intelligence Review).

o Iraqi and Lebanese officials told a reporter in mid-2005 that Iraqi Shiite fighters had begun in early 2005 "copying Hezbollah's techniques in building roadside bombs and carrying out sophisticated ambushes." Those Hezbollah techniques included "shaped charges" (later renamed explosively formed penetrators by U.S. officials), according to those same officials.

o Hezbollah's CD-Rom instructional videos were captured in Iraq rather than Iran's, according to Michael Knights.

o All of the weapons systems captured in Iraq that are alleged to have been provided by Iran, including EFPs and 240 mm rockets, have been in the Hezbollah arsenal, as indicated by many sources on the weapons used by Hezbollah against Israel.

o One of those weapons systems, the RPG-29, which was used by Shiite militias against an American M-1 tank, is not manufactured by Iran and is known to have been acquired by Hezbollah from Syria rather than from Iran.

o There was reportedly intelligence in 2006 that Iran shipped machine tools to Lebanon that could be used to make EFPs.

Comments

[rockymountainhigh]

SO, it looks like Iran has figured out how to get around our intel gathering by adding a link to the chain. Instead of their spport being able to be directly proven, they just muddy the waters and use Hezbollah, like they have been doing for years, and you guys fall for it hook line and sinker. If EFP's are coming from Hizbollah, and Hizbollah is getting them from Iran and Syria, just like they get everything that keeps them afloat, then Iran and Syria are just as guilty as Hizbollah, and should be smacked upside the head, figuratively speaking. Iran, Hizbollah, and Syria are essentially one in the same.

[coloneblog]

Another victory for the NeoCon movement in the Israeli Knesset. Thank you Connecticut for reelecting an agent of the Jewish State.

[rjcrane]

AMEN! The problem is that Lamont was afraid to say this publicly and put the fear or another war with Iran into the minds of CT voters if they were stupid enough to vote for Lieberman again.

Lamont ran a great campaign and deserves our respect but when the Dems can't attack their opponents with the same viciousness and skills the GOP use on them including using the "fear card" they risk losing every time.

RJ Crane, editor
topplebush.com

[zjr909]

There's absolutely nothing in the Constitution or anywhere else stopping voters from initiating a recall. It's exactly the same as a "non-binding resolution" passed by the Senate. We can recall anyone - we just can't strip them of their elected title or physically remove them from the Capitol. But, in the insane world American politics has become in the 21st century, it'll have to suffice to say "It's the thought that counts." Just let our elected representatives know that we would remove them from office in a heartbeat if we could. Because, after all, they could care less what the voters think or want; they're there to serve the moneyed interests. In this instance, you can rest assured the military-industrial complex has some hot-shot new weaponry it's just itching to test on some country we can designate the enemy. Like Connecticut, my homestate of Maryland is heavily dependent on the military for its economic health. So you count on Cardin & Mikulski NEVER voting against the military on anything. And, let's be honest, most of the good people of these two states would gladly sanction the death of millions of Iranians if it puts one more dollar in their pocket. So, I won't be holding my breath waiting for any "recall" motion - even a pretend recall.

[rjcrane]

Federal officials cannot be removed from office by state laws pertaining to recalls.

That said I do believe that if CT voters could recall Lieberman he would be removed from office by an overwhelming majority. But if the GOP Governor could appoint his replacement, the Dems would lose their majority status in the Senate.

RJ Crane, editor
topplebush­.cmo

[Jazz42]

Lieberman has voted againt all the proposal the Democrats have brought up for vote. I think the Democrats should strip him of his chairmanship, he is doing more harm than good anyway.

[Sundialsvc4]

... and when you make a trillion dollars a year selling weapons of all sorts ... just who might well be the ultimate source?

It's just so basic: "war" is not a business at all.

It is ... Money to the guilty ... and Death to the innocent.

[flatus]

A. "Lieberman-Kyle"
B. "Ham-Eggs"
C. "Peanutbut­ter-Jelly"
D. "Turdpile-Toilet"
E. "Car-Alligator"

Q:Pick the pair that does not fit.

[mamacat]

Thank you for a very important blog.
Where is the MSM on this matter???

[bringbackimus]

YOu will not hear it reported by the MSM, because they won't reveal anything that may hurt their gal, Hillary Clinton, and her attempt to disquise herself as the anti-war candidate. Her vote for the amendment, showed she is appealing to the military and republicans for support. If elected, she will keep troops in Iraq indefinately, and start a war against Iran, unless Bush beats her to the punch.

[CTma4pax]

In June, Joe Lieberman recommended a US invasion of Iran on CBS's Face the Nation for the following reasons:
LIEBERMAN. ..I can tell you-- coming back from Iraq,...Wh­at..we're involved in here, as Gen. Luke said to our committee last week,..Ira­q is now the main front in the long war we are fighting against the Islamist terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. In fact, 90% of the suicide bombers in Iraq today, killing Iraqis and American soldiers, are foreign Al Qaeda fighters.
Iran is training and equipping, ah, soldiers, Iraqis, to come in and kill American soldiers and Iraqis, so,...that­'s why we're committed to helping the Iraqis to stability and victory...­.I went and visited throughout the Arab world and ah Israel, and what you see throughout the Middle East is Iran in battle, basically with us and the moderates—ah supplying the extremists in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, ah, fighting the Fatah faction, our allies among the Palestinians and, of course, committing terrorist acts against the ah, Israelis..­.we did present them with evidence that we have, that I've seen, that I believe is incontrovertible, that the Iranians are training and equipping Iraqi extremists to come in, into Iraq and...they 're killing American soldiers and Iraqis...I think we've got to be prepared to take aggressive ah military action...a­nd, to me, that would include, ah, a strike into-- over the border, into Iran,...I'­m not talking about a massive ground invasion..­.By some estimates they have killed as many as 200 American soldiers.
...if there's any hope of the Iranians living according to the international rule of law and stopping, for instance, their nuclear weapons development, we can't just talk to 'em. If they don't, ah, play by the rules we've got to use our force...th­ey can't believe they have immunity..­.we cannot let them get away with it. If we do, ah, they'll take that as a sign of weakness on our part and we'll pay for it in Iraq and throughout the region, and ultimately right here at home.

[sandii]

Congressional Quarterly reports that Sen. Jim Webb "worries that designating part of Iran's government a terrorist group represents a de facto declaration of war against Iran." He as well as 19 other Dems and two Republicans - Hagel and Lugar - had the courage to vote against this bill. You may wish to let him and the others know how much you appreciate their vote, their courage, their standing up for those of us who do not want yet another war in the Middle East. The names of the other Dem Senators are: Biden, Bingaman, Boxer, Brown, Byrd, Cantwell, Dodd, Feingold, Harkin, Inoye, Kennedy, Kerry, Klobacar, Lincoln, McCaskill, Sanders, Wyden. They are my heroes - and MY true representatives!

[JerryJef]

Nothing is worse than to be utterly powerless when confronted with a cosmic wrong. This amendment is a catatrosphic wrong, and I am powerless to do anything about it. My emotions run from rage to dispair and back again.

That the Democratic leadership permitted the Cornyn resolution to even see the light of day was bad enough, but this is inexcusable. That 22 Democrats voted for the Cornyn resolution was bad enough, but that 29 Democrats voted for this is inexcusable.

What can I do about it? Write a nasty letter to the Senate leadership. Both of them, Harry Reid and Dick Durbin, voted for the damn thing.

Should I write a nasty letter to my Congressman or Senators. I would describe the three of them this way--if George Bush defecated in the middle of their dinner plates and told them it was tamales, they'd call it the best meal they ever ate in their lives! With these three Bush will eternally be assured of two votes in the Senate and one vote in the House regardless of what he does.

I have read a lot of history of World War II. George Bush shares so many character traits with Adolf Hitler it almost makes me believe in reincarnation. It's scary. It seems nobody knows what a demented cretin they are dealing with in George Bush, at least no one in the Congress.

John Edwards in the debate tonight said this should not have been passed because Bush is not a man to be trusted. At least Edwards has caught on. He gained my vote tonight.

If Congress is not going to impeach Bush, they should, in the very least, wall him in the White House. Give him nothing. Pass nothing he proposes. Pass nothing any Republican ally of his proposes. If they have to shut the government down for 15 months, shut it down! Do whatever it takes but incapacitate this man! The world and this nation depend on it!

[research]

22 dems try to stifle democratic free speech, now 29 of the Dems join the repug and bushCo as international war criminals!

I am alternately pissed off or hopeless!

We did our part, we elected these dems to end the damn war! instead they want to start another!

[rjcrane]

I also found it disgusting that so many Dems would support this resolution even though it was nonbinding that was sponsored by the likes of cretins like Lieberman and Kyl. I wonder how many votes the exact same resolution would have gotten if instead it had been sponsored by Larry Craig?

Giving Lieberman and his neocon warhawk supporters any credibility at all seems like a grave mistake especially if your goal is trying to end the war in Iraq. You would think that all of these same Senators now fully aware of how Bush betrayed them all when they voted for his Authorization for Use of Force believing he would only use this as a last resort, would have inoculated themselves by now against even opening a slight crack for Bush to attack another sovereign country preemptively.

Some Senators had to vote for this resolution because they get a lot of money and support from Jewish lobbyists who are advocating for the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities. That certainly would explain Carl Levin and Hillary's vote for this resolution and Schumer's.

RJ Crane, editor
topplebush.com

[hoopoe]

i'm right there with you, between rage and despair. and i've studied hitler as well, and i'd say you're right on the money - there are several players in this administration that share those characteri­stics... along with some contenders for the next round: 'adolph' giuliani has a nice ring to it...

sure we should all write letters, but will we, knowing they will be ignored anyway? i honestly don't know what to do, but living in a so-called democracy and coming to the stark realization that my voice and vote mean nothing, my taxes are blood money and my elected leaders are endangering me, my fellow citizens and millions around the globe is horrifying, to say the least.

besides crawling into a bottle or a bomb shelter, anyone got suggestions (of the legal variety please!)? i am at a total loss.

[ArgonautOne]

A minor correction of your "'adolf' giuliani." It should read Benito Giuliani. One Adolf von Texas is enough for American politics. For many years before WWII, American politicians loved Benito Mussolini because he made italian trains to run on time.

[brutus948]

the dems that voted for it are in AIPACS pocket. This was a bill that AIPAC created and Liberman put it to vote.

[pingzing58]

Hilary Rodam Clinton lost my vote for having voted in favor of this back door go to war with Iran amendment. She's a warmonger and would lead us into a dangerous situation much worse than Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. I will now and hereby keep bringing this yea vote up every chance I get. I have not decided who to vote for yet - but it won't be HRC.

[hoopoe]

same here. that vote sealed the deal. i didn't like her to begin with, but now i'm certain she can't be trusted.

[pmfelipe]

The Democrats who voted for this resolution believes that the people will still vote for them if the lobbyist supports them. Just look at all the candidates running for President. All of them voted for the Iraq war except Kucinich. Gravel and Richardson are not in the congress. Now the so-called leading democratic candidate Hillary Clinton voted for this war against Iran. Obama cannot even vote against it. If you really want to end all of these wars a peace candidate should be elected. Stop voting for war mongerers.

[research]

Kucinich beats all the other candidates of both parties in a "blind" issues and record based vote.
http://www.dennis4president.com/go/newsroom/survey-of-public-attitudes-makes-kucinich-the-frontrunner/

[Qbear]

Hillary ENDED her campaign voting AYE on kyl/Lieberman.

Reid LIED, he said he wouldn't bring Kyl/Lieberman to the floor.

[MACVINDANANG]

Pay attention people, let's us not forget why the Iranians have cause to distrust, dislike and have an inclination to view our government (and by extension our people)with distaste. Do any of you 'short-ter­m-memory-f­ools' remember the Shaw of Iran? You know, the man who murdered and imprisoned thousands of his own citizens with our help? Anyone remember the Shaws' bloody repression in 1963. The millions of poor citizens barely able to survive. What about our backing of Saddam Hussein and the help we gave his Baathist Party in initiating a war with his Shiite neighbors and the chemicals we gave him to carry out our defacto war in the 1980's, I do, as do the Iranians. So when are you college idiots going to start reading your history books and paying attention in class. There are always two sides to every story, sometimes there are three.

NOTE TO SELF: when you've screwed nearly every government on the planet, when you've invaded every piss-ant country you can think of, when are you going to go after the boys that can give you a bloody nose, and at what point do you realize that every gun barrel is pointed at you! Oh, by the way, the "CONTRAS" were our terrorists as were the participants in the "Bay of Pigs" and everyone who attended the 'School of the Americas'. We have funded freedom fighters (read terrorists) all over the world, in every backwater country you can think of. Don't start crying foul when other countries take a page from our playbook and use it. What in the world is wrong with the educational system in America? Is anyone learning anything? Is the 'Roman Empire' about fall once again? Will Iran be our Waterloo? REMEMBER THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.

[PADDYWHACK]

Great post,Hillary wants Iran bombed but she wants the current idiot to do it then she will mildly condemn it to keep the money flowing in.There's a report in the English press that Saddam offered to go away for 1bn 6 months before the invasion.S­hrub of the flight suit bulges of course wasted 4000 lives injured 50000 more and killed 1m Iraqis.The latest funding demand will strangle the moribund dollar and our economy

[Zentomato]

Gareth, thank you for your comprehensive journaling of this issue. There is much more to this than meets the eye.

[JackMayhoffer]

Max Blumenthal posted a great little video on here entitled, "Rapture Ready." It tells the tale of evangelical nut job John Hagee and his ties to the group Christians United For Israel (CUFI). Hagee favors military action to engage Iran thus fulfilling some goofy biblical prophecy and the coming of the rapture. Pre-emptive attacks on Iran to provoke its attack of Israel are at the center of this agenda.

In Blumenthal's video, Lieberman is one of the notable elected officials speaking in support of both Hagee and CUFI, likening Hagee to Moses. Now, by no means am I a conspiracy theorist, but is it not more than coincidental that Lieberman, who supports these groups and therefore their agendas, is co-author on a bill that leaves the door open to attacks on Iran?

Too much religion in politics..­..

[hoopoe]

yeah, we froth at the mouth about iran being a 'dangerous theocracy,' but do we look in the mirror much? we're just as theocratic, we just hide it a little better - and we're much more dangerous. we need to vet these politicians for fundamentalist religious convictions before voting them into office.

[Jonni Rae]

yes. I was really annoyed by Russert's question to all the candidates at last night's debate about their favorite Bible verse. Was he trying to catch them in a mistake? What does the Bible have to do with being the President of the United States? In fact, I hated all his questions and attempts to show up all the candidates with past "mistakes.­"

[rjcrane]

It is not a coincidence that Lieberman sponsored this resolution against Iran. Some Jews - certainly not all or even most - but most definitely Lieberman are in this sick dance with the American Taliban, who want to protect israel so that when Christ returns it fulfills a prophecy that raptures the true believers into heaven, which won't be any Jews who don't accept Christ. So the American taliban have aligned themselves with Israel to protect it but for the sickest of reasons. And that's why Lieberman supports the American Taliban.

RJ Crane, editor
topplebush.com

[bethinCary]

Lieberman and any others of this warmongering crowd would not know Jesus if He came up and punched them in the nose.
This "2nd Coming" is just a ruse to assimilate support between fundies and Jews for the GOP.

Jesus did not advocate war-a little overlooked fact by both of these so-called "religious" groups.