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Dr. Jim Taylor

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Understanding Cognitive Bias

Posted: 07/22/11 09:30 AM ET

In my last post, I argued that common sense was vastly over-rated as a tool for making sound judgments, and that we need to engage in "reasoned sense" that includes both extensive direct experience and critical thinking. Taking steps that include the informal use of the scientific method can help us make better decisions.

However, as recent research has demonstrated, even scientists who adhere to the scientific method can't guarantee they will draw the best possible conclusions. When I read this research my first thought was, "How could such highly-educated and precisely-trained professionals veer off the path of objectivity?" The answer is simple: They, like all of us, possess one quality from which it is impossible to divorce themselves. That quality? Being human.

As the fields of psychology and behavioral economics have demonstrated, homo sapiens is a seemingly irrational species that appears to, more often than not, think and behave in nonsensical rather than commonsensical ways. The reason is that we fall victim to a veritable laundry list of cognitive biases that cause us to engage in distorted, imprecise and incomplete thinking which, not surprisingly, results in "perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment or illogical interpretation" (thanks Wikipedia), and, by extension, poor and sometimes catastrophic decisions.

Well-known examples of the results of cognitive biases include the Internet, the housing and financial crises of the past decade, truly stupid use of social media by politicians, celebrities and professional athletes, the existence of the $2.5 billion self-help industry, and, well, believing that a change in the controlling party in Washington will somehow change its toxic political culture.

What is interesting is that many of these cognitive biases must have had, at some point in our evolution, adaptive value. These distortions helped us to process information more quickly (e.g., stalking prey in the jungle), meet our most basic needs (e.g., help us find mates) and connect with others (e.g., be a part of a "tribe").

The biases that helped us survive in primitive times when life was much simpler (e.g., life goal: live through the day) and speed of a decision rightfully trumped its absolute accuracy doesn't appear to be quite as adaptive in today's much more complex world. Due to the complicated nature of life these days, correctness of information, thoroughness of processing, precision of interpretation and soundness of judgment are, in most situations today, far more important than the simplest and fastest route to a judgment.

Unfortunately, there is no magic pill that will inoculate us from these cognitive biases. But we can reduce their power over us by understanding these distortions, looking for them in our own thinking and making an effort to counter their influence over us as we draw conclusions, make choices and come to decisions. In other words, just knowing and considering these universal biases (in truth, what most people call common sense is actually common bias) will make us less likely to fall victim to them.

Here are some of the most widespread cognitive biases that contaminate our ability to use common sense:

  • The bandwagon effect (aka herd mentality) describes the tendency to think or act in ways because other people do. Examples include the popularity of Apple products, use of "in-group" slang and clothing style and watching the "The Real Housewives of ... " reality-TV franchise.
  • The confirmation bias involves the inclination to seek out information that supports our own preconceived notions. The reality is that most people don't like to be wrong, so they surround themselves with people and information that confirm their beliefs. The most obvious example these days is the tendency to follow news outlets that reinforce our political beliefs.
  • Illusion of control is the propensity to believe that we have more control over a situation than we actually do. If we don't actually have control, we fool ourselves into thinking we do. Examples include rally caps in sports and "lucky" items.
  • The Semmelweis reflex (just had to include this one because of its name) is the predisposition to deny new information that challenges our established views. Sort of the yang to the yin of the confirmation bias, it exemplifies the adage "if the facts don't fit the theory, throw out the facts." An example is the "Seinfeld" episode in which George Costanza's girlfriend simply refuses to allow him to break up with her.
  • The causation bias suggests the tendency to assume a cause-effect relationship in situations in which none exists (or there is a correlation or association). An example is believing someone is angry with you because they haven't responded to your email when, more likely, they are busy and just haven't gotten to it yet.
  • The overconfidence effect involves unwarranted confidence in one's own knowledge. Examples include political and sports prognosticators.
  • The false consensus effect is the penchant to believe that others agree with you more than they actually do. Examples include guys who assume that all guys like sexist humor.
  • Finally, the granddaddy of all cognitive biases, the fundamental attribution error, which involves the tendency to attribute other people's behavior to their personalities and to attribute our own behavior to the situation. An example is when someone treats you poorly, you probably assume they are a jerk, but when you're not nice to someone, it's because you are having a bad day.

I could go on and on (for an exhaustive list of cognitive biases, do a search on Wikipedia), but you get the point. If you look at your own thinking, you'll likely find yourself at the mercy of these distortions -- though I may just be suffering from the "false consensus" effect. But I really am sure that we fall for cognitive biases all of the time (I may be guilty of the "overconfidence" effect). In any event, all the research I read supports this post's claims (uh-oh, I think I just fell for the "confirmation" bias).

Note to self: Need to continue to work on resisting cognitive biases.

 
 
 

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In my last post, I argued that common sense was vastly over-rated as a tool for making sound judgments, and that we need to engage in "reasoned sense" that includes both extensive direct experience an...
In my last post, I argued that common sense was vastly over-rated as a tool for making sound judgments, and that we need to engage in "reasoned sense" that includes both extensive direct experience an...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Joel Kent Melville
11:01 AM on 07/25/2011
easy because apple is more flashy, they focus more on the advertising then the product itself. which most of the time is an overpriced piece of junk with the same processors etc most other computers have. the only thing original to apple nowadays is the iphone.
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french queen13
my beloved is mine and I am his
04:29 AM on 07/25/2011
"As the fields of psychology and behavioral economics have demonstrated, homo sapiens is a seemingly irrational species that appears to, more often than not, think and behave in nonsensical rather than commonsensical ways."

It just struck me reading this that there's a sort of irony in expecting humans to think in a way we don't generally, perhaps even naturally, do - and call it "rational". All the ways of thinking labeled rational most definitely have a place, an important one, but oh how we've put them on a pedestal, or rather, insisted that they and only they are worthy of respect. It's starting to seem not only unrealistic but willfully so, ignoring or demeaning all the other aspects of our natures ... and that itself is pretty irrational, lol.
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oftenon
cartoons are the best explanation
09:07 PM on 07/23/2011
All decisions are emotional.
The processor for every binary one-zero data particle is emotion.
The filter for all bias, agreement, discernment, retention, rejection, acceptance: emotion.
Emotion's already plotted the course while the brain's struggling into its socks.
03:41 PM on 07/23/2011
"The confirmation bias involves the inclination to seek out information that supports our own preconceived notions. The reality is that most people don't like to be wrong, so they surround themselves with people and information that confirm their beliefs. The most obvious example these days is the tendency to follow news outlets that reinforce our political beliefs."

Guilty as charged. But every time I try to 'treat' this malady, in my case, a "liberal" bias with a "dose" of O'Reilly or Limbaugh, I have an almost instantaneous adverse reaction comprised of many of the elements of that basic survival mechanism, the 'fight or flight response': tensed muscles, dilated pupils, deeper breathing, faster pulse etc, plus at least a little nausea (not a standard component of fight-flight). Similar but less severe 'symptoms' arise when Palin, Bachman, Cantor etc. are in pontification mode, no matter the media outlet. What do you suggest Doctor? :,)
04:22 PM on 07/23/2011
No cure for what ails you. Challenging your confirmation bias is healthy though, e.g., Limbaugh or Palin. At least forces you to keep thinking. Best to keep your exposures to those "viruses" short though.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
03:39 AM on 07/23/2011
Oooh, where is the link to the study that showed that fanboyism uses the same brain circuits as religion? I can't find it.
Any member of the Church of Jobs can probably attest to that.
Me, I'm a member of the Church of Linus and His prophet Richard.
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jackinjax
I had to send micro-bio out to be dry cleaned.
08:08 PM on 07/22/2011
Just in case you didn't read this article, it has nothing to with Big Macs as the lead-in and most of the previous posts would lead you to believe. It is a very interesting read, though. Worth the time.
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syds180turn
Independent and Proud of It!
04:34 PM on 07/22/2011
I feel that we have a tendency to over-analyze things. Maybe I eat Big Macs because I just simply like them. My Mom was a Psychologist, so I know the Psycho-babble about different "bias". I don't really think our actions can be compartmentalized that easily...not saying that some people don't fit into the recognized criteria, but hasn't anyone ever thought, just for a minute, that people do what they do and behave the way they behave because they want to. Or is that just too simplistic? As for the person who is the Molecular Microbiologist...I'm happy that you have a job, but I know people, like my brother who has his Master's in IT, as well as several other friends with PhD's and MBA's who are out of work in professions that you would think are bullet-proof. The simple fact is, if a company, corporation or small business decides to outsource or downsize, there is not very much you can do about it. Out in the real world, all sorts of people are out of work...period.
04:29 PM on 07/22/2011
I think its the 2 all beef patties and the special sauce that influence me.
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RhiannonRings
Childfree and loving it!
09:33 PM on 07/24/2011
"Two all beef patties special sauce lettuce cheese pickles onions on a sesame seed bun!" Child of the '70s here :)
10:06 PM on 07/24/2011
Ahhh a Mac and flowers in the hair."its a beautiful morning,I think I'll go outside for a while"
Sometimes real things and one's imagination can cause real motivation.
Doesn't that sound a bit better than a dry scientific study?? LOL
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walkingwolf
I'm sorry I offended you-I should have lied
04:28 PM on 07/22/2011
Just ask "slick Willie" about those Big MAcs..he ate them till his heart said "I quit..."
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02:37 PM on 07/22/2011
I have overpaid for all my mac's strictly because of the logo. Gates is a great humanitarian , but I relate to Jobs alledged experimental college years.
02:32 PM on 07/22/2011
Lemme see - distilled, all this is suggesting is that people are largely irrational in their daily lives - This is a surprise because?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BlackYowe
I am a classical- liberal woman and a Jeweler.
02:11 PM on 07/22/2011
We don't. Apple products are over priced and are status symbols. I avoid these products. I am not fond of Microsoft or Apple.
12:58 PM on 07/22/2011
I don't find the title of the post on the Healthy Living home page particularly appropriate either. I guess it was intended to stir up some controversy. But it focuses on one very brief comment in an otherwise unrelated post.
03:30 PM on 07/22/2011
Agreed. The title on AOL Today isn't any better. Doesn't bother mentioning which of these biases is working in the title situation. Doesn't even discuss branding ("I can't properly analyze all these candidates, so I'll take the brand that worked for me before."), which is probably the main factor as well as an entirely modern bias.
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Tom Airhart
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
08:17 PM on 07/22/2011
I tend to agree with your assessment. Stirring up controversy, to me, is the same as wagging the dog which the media is well known for. They (the media) is in a feeding frenzy on finding something to be in the limelight with and hitting the hot button of people and then continuing to stir the pot. Those who write articles, reporters, if you will want to get as much response to what they write as they possibly can. It doesn't matter whether the responses are positive or negative, it's the sheer volume of responses that matters. Even silly responses like the one above which begins with the 2 all beef patties, etc. mean something.
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damdelion12
12:54 PM on 07/22/2011
It's APPLE because secretly we are all wannabe snobs...
12:11 PM on 07/22/2011
I disagree. In the last 10 years, I have owned PC's and MAC. I have replaced hard drives and CPU's and whole PCs in this time due to viruses. I have owned one Mac, it has never failed and I have never had to buy Norton or any other Web Protection. It has MS Office and has always performed well.
It's just like I have never wanted for a Job as I am Molecular Microbiologist. Yet people still go after degrees in Political Science and end up working at Burger King, English degrees, Acting degrees, and Music, all needed but not in the amount to get a good lasting job. Science and Math win every time, but people still go after those degrees and don't know why they don't have a job!!! At any moment there are 160,000 IT jobs available in the US, Engineers and Medical Professionals always have jobs waiting and yet we have 9.2 percent unemployment. Same with PCs. Failure is a choice!
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DakkonA
www.DisentangledReality.com
02:16 PM on 07/22/2011
I have a friend whose Mac has failed catastrophically 5 times since she bought it 2 years ago. Viruses are mostly a non-issue on PCs these days.
02:18 PM on 07/22/2011
Not everyone is good at math and science. I don't think you would be very happy if society said that your line of work pays less for no apparent reason. Maybe if there was a conscious effort in this country to pay people equally for right and left brained jobs then we wouldn't be in the situation we are in. Let's say that society were different and creative fields paid more than science and math fields and you were good at math and science. Would you feel comfortable being in a creative field when you have no talent for it just for the pay. I bet you wouldn't get very far. Just making a point.
03:33 PM on 07/22/2011
I had several different kinds of employment as I grew up. I am of that generation where you learned everything from Farming, Mechanics, Carpentry, Electrical and and Education. Those who don't look to the future are doomed to stay in the past. All those jobs that went overseas are not coming back! I don't make decisions on Make Believe and What If's! If and when I need a different talent, as in new electronics that come out every day, I learn them. To ignore the current events and tools and education to keep up is simple failure. Let me put this simple, there are opportunities for education and you have a choice. I have a PhD in Molecular Microbiology and Genetics and both my masters degree and PhD was paid for while I collected a military salary at the same time. These opportunities are out there and are often ignored or at worst, "no, that's to hard"! It's a choice!