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Dr. Josef Olmert

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Win, Lose, or Draw? The UN Showdown

Posted: 09/23/11 12:50 PM ET

The debate over full Palestinian membership in the UN is not over yet, but it is not too early to issue an interim report card, and it seems that what was billed as a diplomatic OK Corral showdown is just another chapter in a long saga whose end is still not in sight.

Diplomatically, the Israelis can register a success. The Israeli press and opposition politicians went out of their way to describe the calamity awaiting PM Netanyahu. Tsunami and apocalypse now were some of the expressions used, but then that simply did not happen. PM Netanyahu and his FM, the fiery Avigdor Lieberman, made it clear that they had no problems with President Obama speech, which included a reference to the 1967 lines. Really? ...Well, it is all about expectations, and the Israelis being told to expect a tornado got a blessed rain, so no wonder that Netanyahu and his supporters celebrate a victory.

I doubt if in second or third reading of the speech they still have the same words of praise to the president as suggested by their initial reaction. If they do, the president can claim his victory, and all that is needed to understand it is to go back to his speech from some months, and the Israeli reactions then to the mentioning of these problematic 4 digits: 1967....

The Israelis can also be encouraged by the decision of Nigeria to abstain in the Security Council. Nigeria being half Muslim and a member of OPEC was supposed to be firmly in the Palestinian column. The Palestinian side is the one that signals frustration with the proceedings in New York, and they know why, as the attempt to isolate Israel seems to be unravel. The Palestinian leadership made some miscalculations in its preparations for the big event in New York. The Arab Middle East is far from being engulfed with fervor watching the debate in New York. To be sure, there are many thousands of Arabs in the streets of Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, but their agenda is not the Palestine problem. It is their freedoms and bread and butter which are at stake.

The Palestinians may have to understand, grudgingly though, that the Arab Spring is not so conducive to their struggle as initially perceived by them. Propaganda notwithstanding, the truth is that the Arab masses are preoccupied primarily with their own predicament, not that of the Palestinians. There is no newly-found love lost to Israel, far from it, but in terms of priorities, this conflict is not #1 on the list of so many Arabs.

Even the demonstrations in the West Bank are significantly smaller than anticipated, and one is left to hope that despite the inflammation, they will not resort to violence and bloodshed. Then, the Palestinian leadership is weakened by Hamas's position. The internal Palestinian reconciliation between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas left the former with the bad smell, but no real advantage. Hamas cannot be clearer in its opposition to the PA bid, and Mahmoud Abbas really needs to clarify whether he talks for all the Palestinian people, that he claims to be the leader of.

This is not just a political problem for the PA, it's also a PR one. Ahead of the show in New York, both sides sent their heavy PR guns to the arena. The Israelis have their former UN ambassador, Dan Gillerman, a polished speaker, and the PA called the brilliant Hanan Ashrawi, who for some years was in relative obscurity. But even the veteran Ashrawi cannot whitewash the impact of some Palestinian messages that put their position in a context which is not convenient to them.

Take for example, Abbas repeated announcement that he would never recognize Israel as a Jewish state. An amazing position when held by a leader who demands recognition of his own people's right for self-determination. Then there was a press conference in Ramallah, in which Nabil Sha'ath, one of Abbas closest confidants, explained at length Palestinian disappointment with the US position. Behind the podium there was a map of Palestine. Something was missing there, the State of Israel... a coincidence?, I, for one, do not think so. And where is Ashrawi explaining this?

Polls taken in the US indicate very clearly, that the majority of Americans are not really interested in the New York drama. The same polls show that by wide margin American public opinion continues to favor Israel. The New York story has not become center stage also in Europe, where support for the Palestinians is significantly greater than in the US. The financial woes and the debt crisis are a much bigger story there.

So on balance, it seems that Israel is leading in points in the current round. But then, a dose of reality is in place here. The Middle East can change very quickly. No celebrations by Netanyahu and his government can change the fact that many more rounds are along the line, so it may be that a visionary policy by them will bring Israel many more points, not just PR but also diplomatic. There still is time to do that.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nycpaladin
Have truth will travel
01:45 AM on 09/26/2011
You have to wonder about this "state" recognitio­n that Abbas hopes to obtain, especially since its borders cannot be created without negotiatio­ns with Israel, whom he attempted to use the UN to make an end run around. Besides, one of the parts of this "state", specifically Gaza, is ruled by a gang of psychotic maximalist­ic miscreants who reject Abbas' UN applicatio­n since they believe it deflects from their goal of the total destructio­n of Israel.

Two competing regimes in charge? No borders? T What kind of state is that? No doubt that a few Security Council members will be asking about this.
02:46 PM on 09/25/2011
When Abbas was making his speech to the UN, Hamas his 'partner' in Gaza switched off all the tv's You couldnt make this up
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nycpaladin
Have truth will travel
01:35 AM on 09/26/2011
Nothing like Palestinian democracy at work!
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Collin Hawkins
Out in the political wilderness
12:53 AM on 09/25/2011
True to form, the author (clearly an Israel sympathizer) misses a major locus of change in these proceedings. The United States's time as "honest broker" are, just like its influence in the region, on a steep decline. Palestinians never have seen America as actually working in good faith, but they've decided to sidestep the US altogether.
02:47 PM on 09/25/2011
so whos an honest broker-Saudi Arabia, Russia, Britain?. Tell me who?
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
11:22 PM on 09/24/2011
Reality:
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/pax-americana-is-over-1.386383

Ha'aretz, Sept. 25, 2011

"Pax Americana is over" Leon Hadar

EXCERPTS:

"Like Great Britain in 1947, the United States is finding it more and more difficult to maintain its military and diplomatic status in the Middle East. Its defense expenditures constitute close to a third of its overall budget, at a time when the burden of its fiscal debt is becoming unsustainable."

"So the Americans will continue muddling through in the Middle East for some time to come, juggling their numerous and incompatible alliances ‏(with Israelis, Arabs, Turks‏) and commitment ‏(to order and change‏) while trying to cut their strategic and economic costs. And all this is happening as Turkey and other regional actors try to form a post-American order in the Middle East that even under the best-case-scenario will include support for an independent Palestinian state, and will certainly not be compatible with the positions of the current Israeli government.

"Israel...should take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity in the form of the ability of the United States to still maintain some level of global influence...to try to reach a regional agreement.... When that window...closes, Israel is likely to find itself operating in an international system in which its American friend would be only one of several poles of power."
04:09 PM on 09/24/2011
I am so tired of this argument...Israel right to exist. Israel is already there, exists and is doing well
This argument about israel security and right to exist is not valid anymore. We need to worry about
Palestine right to exist and its security. The palestinian move should have been done long time ago
The goal now is for palestine to be recognized by the UN and involving the UN to meet its
demands. It is quite obvious that Israel and the US do not want to play ball, or do not mind
doing it when the palestinians are the balls. Israel has to recognize that the origin of its problems
is its policy towards palestinians and the annexing of the palestinian territory, especially in the light
of the arab spring recent events, Israel friends are dwindling and the next one to tumble will be
al saoud. Come to think of it, they should listen to the wise jews who long time ago unlike herzel
foresaw this and were looking for other alternatives to Palestine, such as africa and south
america. Now Israelis stand alone in the face of the storm...and may god be with the innocent
souls....
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01:42 AM on 09/25/2011
Israel isn't moving to "Africa and South America." It's been over a half-century and a beautiful, vibrant nation has been the result. Israel has every right to remain where she is. She won't be chased away because narrow-minded, selfish people can't get past "The Catastrophe."

"Now Israelis stand alone in the face of the storm...an­d may god be with the innocent
souls."

This sounds like yet another military threat. This is how your group got into this mess to begin with. Peaceful people indeed.
06:16 PM on 09/25/2011
Dear teacher

Do not be paranoid over here. Nobody is threatening anybody, we are merely trying to analyse current situations in the middle east. FYI, I do not belong to any group and that threat propaganda and violence is not getting any traction anymore.
Your own faulty logic is catching up with you.
01:51 AM on 09/25/2011
If you are tired get some rest. When you wake up you may remember that the modern state of Israel's problems started the minute that the state of Israel was declared and 7 or more Arab states attacked Israel. There were no Palestinians (except for Jordan which is on 80% of the Roman geographic area that they called Palestine), the West Banks was annexed by Jordan and the Gaza Strip was annexed by Egypt, not Israel.

Then maybe you will remember how the PLO attacked Jordan and Lebanon and were killed by the thousands and expelled from those countries.

And by the way, in every prayer and every opportunity, Jews world wide for thosands of years and still today have been expressing the wish “next year in Jerusalem!”. Not Africa, not South America, Jerusalem. Jerusalem, where the Jews lived and build their temple before there was Islam.
03:06 PM on 09/24/2011
One more complete 180 reversal from the president. What he says today wont be worth chit a year from now.
12:03 PM on 09/24/2011
It is so simple that only those filled with rabid hatred are unable to see the problem here. Since 1947 but especially since 2000 the Palestinians have been offered a multiple of two state solutions and have rejected every single one of them, mostly with violence and never with any counter offers. The problem the Palestinians face is that to accept a two state solution and their own state, they have to accept the Jewish state, and they are not willing to do that. What they want is a two state solution that allows them to continue their war on Israel. That's all.
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AJ Raalte
Israel forever - warts and all.
05:01 PM on 09/24/2011
F & F.
05:16 PM on 09/24/2011
Not so long time ago your own kind was treated the same harsh way and all the ills of the world
were blamed on the jews. You should thank some of us humanity to have given you the
opportunity to have your own state. Now we are asking you to forget some of
that resentment you have about what's been done to you.
It's all in the past and stop taking it out on the palestinians. what is this argument about
recognizing a jewish state. First Israel is not all the jews jews. It's already recognized by the UN
why do you need more recognition, how about you do you recognize palestine and the 1967
border ? stop playing rhetoric with us...
Even you...must recognize that your wheels are spinning and your arguments do not hold
water...stop that hatred thing OK...historically and please check...the moslems have been
more prosemite than antisemite...that is the way you pay that generosity by sneackily building
settlements and taking other people's land like a thief stealing stuff in the middle of the night.
06:43 PM on 09/24/2011
Oh - so sorry humanity for not showing more gratitude for your ALLOWING US TO BE ALIVE ?

The nations of the world take their turns at oppressing the Jews. Greek, Roman, Spanish, German, Muslim. It's all the same.

The Jews survive and will survive not by the generosity of any nation but by the hand of GOD.
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AJ Raalte
Israel forever - warts and all.
01:41 PM on 09/25/2011
@ elghoul

There is NO comparison between the way the Jews have been trated for thousands of years, to what the Palestinian Arabs are going through. Mostly as a result of their own actions, I might add.

And I don't know where you have been all this time, but all the ills of the world are STILL blamed on the Jews and/or Israel.

And it has NOTHING to do with resentment and EVERYTHING with survival.

Humanity didn't give ANYTHING to the Jewish people. They worked hard for every thing they've got, and they'd rather not be robbed of it AGAIN, as has happened a multitude of times in the last 2,000 years.

Israel doesn't take out ANYTHING on the Palestinian Arabs! All she does is DEFEND herself against their incessant ATTACKS.

As soon as there IS a (second) Palestine, Israel will be the first to recognize it. Netanyahu said so, in front of the whole world.

There is no reason whatsoever for the Palestinians to receive the whole of Judea and Samaria, all the way up to the former "Green Line", just because that was the ceasefire line between the Jordanian army and the IDF in 1948.
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09:54 AM on 09/24/2011
This isn't a question about security.

It's about rights.

There can't be peace without justice.
There can't be justice without a "right of return".
12:04 PM on 09/24/2011
Thanks for saying the truth, there can be no peace unless Israel accepts 4.5 million hostile Arabs into their country and commits suicide. At least someone is saying it.
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12:40 PM on 09/24/2011
A group of foreign born millitants went into an area (because they suddenly acquired religion), denied rights and confiscated property belonging to an indegenous peoples some six decades ago.

Bad enough as it is, the self declared state entity has over the six decades occupies and continues to occupy, settle land while continuing to deny the indegenous population thieir rights and subjugating them to second class status in their own land.

The ONLY reason this entity survives is because of unlimited and unconditional political, economic and millitary support it receives from it's only purported friend in this world.

The world needs to stand up in a unified voice like it deed against apartheid South Africa to denounce this inhumane entity and support the opressed.

It's time to sever the umbilical cord on this 63 year old.
03:05 PM on 09/24/2011
Accept 4.5 million Arabs back into the home they were pushed out of by the invading foreigners you mean
09:50 AM on 09/24/2011
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has to be settled by them.Obama created this mess a year ago with opening his mouth about what he knew little about. He push for the 1967 state lines. This would be the end of Israeli. I believe there sould be two countries but they have to decide what they both can settle with. Every one else else needs to keep out of it.
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GeorgeBurnsWasRight
My micro-bio is running on empty.
03:12 PM on 09/24/2011
I don't see how Obama created a mess; no US president has been able to solve the conflict and I doubt that Obama will be able to, either. Not much different than the conflict with North Korea. As long as at least one side is stubborn enough, there's no solution.
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
11:04 PM on 09/24/2011
Israel is bound under international law, the UN Charter, the Fourth Geneva Convention and the Universal Declaration of human rights to withdraw to the borders of 4 June 1967. If you check carefully, you will discover that contrary to what seems to be the view of its supporters, there is no special provision in international law that enables Israel to violate it with impunity.,
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AJ Raalte
Israel forever - warts and all.
01:58 PM on 09/25/2011
As the so-called "borders of 4 June 1967" were only the armistice lines of 1948 that were explicitly NOT meant or recognized as borders for the 19 years Jordan and Egypt illegally occupied Judea, Samaria and Gaza, I think you'll find you're wrong.
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
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meb1357
Remember Kafr Qasim
08:57 AM on 09/24/2011
As for the business of recognizing Israel as a Jewish state in return for recognizing Palestine as a Palestinian state, I have two comments:
1. The equivalancy for recognizing Palestine as a Palestinian state would be to recognize Israel as an Israeli state. And,
2. How does Dr. Olmert feel about recognizing America as a Christian state?
03:07 PM on 09/24/2011
Neither 'Palestinian' or 'Israeli' are religions, so how does America being a Christian state fit?
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meb1357
Remember Kafr Qasim
08:57 AM on 09/24/2011
I think Dr. Olmert's wishful thinking is rushing him into premature celebration. The powerless Palestinians have withstood the full diplomatic force of the most powerful country in the world, as well as the full diplomatic and military force of Israel, and not only are still standing on their feet, but have also brought the Palestinian issue to the front and center of the world's premier stage. Speaking of standing on their feet, perhaps Dr. Olmert did not see the repeated standing ovations Mr. Abbas got from the world body. I did not see Mr. Netanyahu get any.
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
11:05 PM on 09/24/2011
With each passing day, Israel is increasingly viewed around the world with contempt, a pariah state.
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02:11 AM on 09/25/2011
But it is a state, and has been one for 63 years.
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AJ Raalte
Israel forever - warts and all.
02:13 PM on 09/25/2011
Better to live and be held in contempt than to be beautifully eulogized, my dear Thelonius.
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Rita R
Always asking why
08:49 AM on 09/24/2011
"And where is Ashrawi explaining this?" Hanan Ashwari could be the linch-pin. She received her doctorate in the US, she is an Arab Christian, and she has the political savvy to carry the day. But we need to see the strategy behind Abbas's plea to the UN. If the Palestinians are recognized as an independent state, the Israelis can no longer do land-grabs without loud repercussions. And yes, the Palestinians have to unify procedurally, but then cite any country that has a single, unified political party. We don't, the British don't, the Germans don't, and the Israelis don't. Isn't that an element of democracy, the two party system? What IS incumbent on the Palestinians is to end all violence, regardless of political party alignment to Hamas or the PA.
12:07 PM on 09/24/2011
Ashrawi is on the record as supporting suicide terror against Israel, and pushing for one state that is Palestinian. Hardly a constructive individual.
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Rita R
Always asking why
04:46 PM on 09/24/2011
Please quote this from a reputable source. I have personally met Dr. Hanan Ashwari and had long discussions with her. I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that she would ever endorse such a thing as suicide terrorism. So please quote that, again, from a reputable source, in Dr. Ashwari's exact words.
03:09 PM on 09/24/2011
Why is it not incumbent on Israel to forgo violence as well?
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02:14 AM on 09/25/2011
Israel doesn't target innocents deliberately. She has every right to defend herself and to retaliate as a way to deter further violence.
08:03 AM on 09/24/2011
Events outside the UN will play out what happens not events inside the UN. It is not in the control of the Palestinians or Israel or the US or anybody. It would be nice in the UN could resolve this. The US will not allow this in its support of Israel, so it leaves the resolution to fate outside UN negotiations.

There has been delay on this for decades, so more delay is not really helpful. The Arab Spring uprising in Syria could in truth explode the situation. It is a very volatile time and there is no safety.

As for the US I would like us to just stay out if it. We should not support either side, not be involved with the peace talks, send no weapons or money to anyone. We should step back and mind our our business.

Why? Because we have too many troops in the region in Iraq and Kuwait and in Afghanistan.
RabidRightRebel
A moderate voice who rejects the rabid right
02:19 AM on 09/24/2011
Territorial disputes can be resolve in two ways. One way is to have a military conflict and force the vanquished to sign surrender terms that transfer the property to the victors. The other way is to appeal to the international court to resolve the dispute through the use of international law.

In the Israeli-Palestinians situation Israel clearly adopted the first way, but there is a problem, the vanquished refuse to surrender! So what do the victors do? Well they simply act as if the vanquished have surrendered and occupy the territory, establishing “fact on the ground” that prevent any return of the un-surrendered land. There are two main problems with this solution. First it results in never ending conflict and second it is illegal under international law.

It is because of this second problem that Israel is so feverishly trying to deny Palestinians recognition as a state. For as a State, Palestine could appeal to the International courts to resolve its land dispute with Israel. Israel wants to avoid this at all costs.

PS: Canada should support the Palestinian if not out of moral right, at least out of self interest. After all Canada has territiorial disputes which one can only assume they want resolved using international law.
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
11:09 PM on 09/24/2011
You neglected to note that under international law and as stipulated in the UN Charter (binding on all members), the acquisition of territory by armed conflict is prohibited.
03:26 PM on 09/25/2011
Thelonius, you, neglected to note that Jordan does not want the the West Bank back and Jordan had already killed thousands of the Palestinian Authority/PLO and expelled them from Jordan before the Palestinian Authority approved a new charter in 1968, that says that they will "liberate" Jordan by "armed struggle" and make it part of “Palestine”. That is still part of their charter today.
Article 9: Armed struggle is the only way to liberate Palestine. This is the overall strategy, not merely a tactical phase. The Palestinia­n Arab people assert their absolute determinat­ion and firm resolution to continue their armed struggle and to work for an armed popular revolution for the liberation of their country and their return to it. They also assert their right to normal life in Palestine and to exercise their right to self-deter­mination and sovereignt­y over it.
Article 2: Palestine, with the boundaries it had during the British Mandate*, is an indivisibl­e territoria­l unit.
* The British Palestine Mandate includes all the land of Jordan, Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
04:43 PM on 09/25/2011
1) Israel was attacked and defended itself. The only territorial dispute was that Jordan said all that the land of Israel, the West Bank and the International terrirtory of Jerusalem was Jordanian even though Jordan did not exist until it was created by the same mandate that created Israel, the West Bank and the International terrirtory of Jerusalem.
2) Under what international law?
The most sited laws say nothing about the acquisition of territory as a result of armed conflict (both RabidRightRebel and Thelonius – take note). And even if they did, which the do not, the sited articals refer to the aggressor not the defender:
o UN Charter, article 2, paragraph. 4 (1945)
o Declaration On Principles Of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations And Co-Operation Among States In Accordance With The Charter Of The United Nations (1970), Principle 1
o Hague Regulations IV (1907), articles 43 & 55
o Geneva Conventions IV (1949), article 47 & 54