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Dr. Josef Olmert

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Now Libya, But What About Syria?

Posted: 10/21/11 04:44 PM ET

The Libya effect is causing ripples in some of the other Middle East countries where the cry for freedom has gone on for months. Syria is a case in mind, and the message can't be clearer. The unceremonial end of Muanmmar Gaddafi gave a much-needed boost to millions of Syrians, who are fantasizing of the day when their dictator will be just a bad memory. This is going to happen, but not in a matter of weeks or even a few months.

Still, the trend is clear, and the Alawite regime is increasingly isolated and consequently desperate. The killing machine of the Fourth Division and the Presidential Guard under Maher Assad and Assaf Shawkat is working extra time, as the uprising is moving to a new stage. That of an armed confrontation between them and large parts of their former comrades in arms, mainly Sunni soldiers and officers who defect in droves and turn on their former Alawite masters.

As this is happening, the mass demonstrations continue and the geographic scope of them is also expanding. In the last few weeks the second largest city in Syria, Aleppo, which was relatively muted, is in the uprising and the reaction of the regime is typical: killing as many protestors as possible. The estimate of 3000 victims in Syria may seem to be much lower than the real number. Aleppo in the uprising is of significance because it has a large business community, composed of Sunnis as well as Christians and other minorities which until now seemed to give the regime the benefit of the doubt, believing that it could survive and restore stability. The relentless violence and its disastrous economic impact may finally turned the disc also for this element of the population. Altogether the uprising is likely to stay and intensify.

This is a battle of will between the Sunni majority and the determined Alawite elite, but one in which material resources and physical power could still prove to be the decisive factor. This is exactly where Vice President Biden's comments on the successful Libyan campaign can be very relevant regarding the predicament of the Syrian people.

Biden hailed the success in Libya, claiming that no American lives were lost. It was relatively cheap costing only $2 billion. While the VP sounded as if it was a model of action to be adopted also in other crisis spots, the case of Syria may be different than that of Libya. I, for one, do not detect any appetite in the US or among its European allies to intervene militarily in Syria, either by creating a no-fly zone, sending ground troops or attacking from the sea.

It is also the case that, unlike the Libyan rebels, their Syrian counterparts are yet to appeal to the international community and ask for military intervention. They may do it in the future, but already now they are eager to have much more support from the US and the Europeans than what actually comes their way. Let's take the financial element of Biden's statement. One shoulder Fim-92 Stinger missile costs only $38,000. The Syrian defectors organized in The Free Syria Army and other units will be happy to get as many stringers as possible. The Syrian air force, totally dominated by Alawites, has already been used against the defectors as well as civilians. The cost of even hundreds of Stingers given to the rebels will be far short of the money spent in Libya. Delivery could be along the Turkish-Syrian border. Just imagine the psychological effect of even one Syrian aircraft brought down by the rebels.

This is just one example, and there are others. Money should be promised and given to high-level Syrian officers crossing to one of the neighboring countries. And alongside this, there is much room for increased diplomatic support to the rebels and their political front, The Syrian National Council. The Obama Administration reiterated its position that the Assad regime lost its legitimacy. What, in that case, stops the administration from inviting representatives of the Council for formal talks with the Secretary of State and the President as a preliminary step before granting them formal recognition as the legitimate government of Syria?

If such an invitation will come, and it is already now long overdue, the Syrian rebels will feel the pressure of the need to patch up their internal dissent, in order to present a credible and united position to the Americans and Europeans. The West for its part will have to accept that any respectable delegation of the Syrian opposition should include also the Muslim Brotherhood.

The massacre in Syria has gone on for too long. It has to stop, and the US and its allies should do a lot more to achieve that, even if they refuse to intervene militarily. All they need to do and quickly is to make good on the statement of VP Biden, at least as a first step.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Martin Houde
I am no microbe
09:38 PM on 10/26/2011
I see all those "Syria has no oil" to justify the lack of appetite for intervention.

The sheer difference in the forces in presence is to blame. Syria is known to unbalance the region repeatedly, with Hezbollah as its arm in Lebanon for instance. The Hama massacre in 1982 should serve as reminder enough of what the regime is capable.

But Syria's forces are immensely more powerful than Lybia's. The opposition has no land or arms. The country in mountainous and densely populated. It is also land-locked. Support from the Arab world would be much harder to gain. A mission would be much harder and costlier in every sense of the way. The only country with an appetite for such a mission would probably be Israel itself, the only country which was actually against the Arab Spring.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
10:15 AM on 10/23/2011
Syria is not about oil, it's about the isrealis. Why the US should make another war that will bring yet more wars. Aren't we tired of making wars?
03:24 PM on 10/23/2011
Yes, how many trillions of dollars will the US taxpayer be obliged to spend, to "protect" Israel? (Meaning, to help Israel continue its insane colonisation scheme in the West Bank).
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cdncommentator
10:41 AM on 10/24/2011
What about the Syrian civilians? Don't you care about them? Or is destroying Israel more important to you than helping the Syrian civilians?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Martin Houde
I am no microbe
09:39 PM on 10/26/2011
It's not about the oil, or even Israel. The difficulty of such a mission is what makes it impossible, for many of the same reasons the US doesn't go in Iran...
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
08:58 PM on 10/22/2011
When you spend twice the money on war that the rest of the world spend combined, everything seem to be solvable by war.
54% of our F taxes for WAR. http://www.warresisters.org/pages/piechart.htm
03:25 PM on 10/23/2011
And we can thank the Israel lobby for idiotic Iraq War.
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cdncommentator
10:42 AM on 10/24/2011
Actually, it was the Bushites. The Israelis were split about whether having Saddam Hussein stay or go was in Israel's benefit.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DaveJohnWard
04:36 PM on 10/22/2011
Sorry, but Syria does not have enough oil to be interesting. Although, having missed the boat in Libya, maybe the Germans would be interested in helping the rebels this time around
01:50 PM on 10/22/2011
Sure, why not, let's arm the rebels in Syria. It is a repressive regime. After that, let's focus on the other repressive regime that brutalizes millions of people, let's arm the Palestinians! Enforce a no-fly-zone over the Gaza and West Bank. Give the Palestinians Stingers and whatever arms they need to fight their brutal occupier. After all, we are the champions of freedom. Right?
04:04 PM on 10/22/2011
no Donatella this is not the same as the Israeli conflict with the Palestinians. The Israelis wanted peace and land boundries since 1948 with PEACE as the only condition. The fact that the rise up of peopl both Arab and Israeli in Israel against the goverment resulted in exactly ZERO DEATHS shows exactly what Israelis are like. They are a peace loving people who ARE AGAINST VIOLENCE.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
05:55 PM on 10/22/2011
F&F. Spot on.
12:10 PM on 10/22/2011
Assad should be worried.
11:18 AM on 10/22/2011
no way US will interven publicly in syria. It'll be done through covert operations. But it won't be enough. Syrian people are not ready to launch a civil war yet. These regimes saw what happened in egypt, lybia. they won't go away easy and without killing thousands
11:56 PM on 10/22/2011
Plus, there is no oil. I'm usually not big on conspiracies, but we went into Libya a bit too quickly. If not for our commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'm sure we would've had more boots on the ground besides guys from the CIA's Special Actvities Division.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
10:16 AM on 10/22/2011
Now the dictator of Libyan is gone, it is time to overthrow the US supported dictatorsh­ips of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
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gschear
Max Baucus: What's in your wallet?
01:31 PM on 10/22/2011
That would be the job of the Saudi's and the Bahrainians now, wouldn't it. Their rulers literally have all the money they need to buy whatever they want from anyone. We could (and should) cut off all weapons sales but they would find what they need on the world market. What the "Obama doctrine" requires is a REAL popular uprising to support and then only materially when the regimes reactions to the uprising truly endanger it's existence. Level the playing field that we had a hand in tilting against the people. And even after that it has to be up to rebels to make it work when they become the new boss. It is they only way anyone appreciates "freedom". When they have invested their heart and soul and have crushed the skull of their own oppressor.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
05:53 PM on 10/22/2011
The people of Bahrain tried and the US ordered Saudi Arabia to crush the democratic movement in Bahrain.
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cdncommentator
10:43 AM on 10/24/2011
...but not Syria?

Is your only criteria who the US supports? And not the brutality of the regime?

You are hypocritical and don't make any sense.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Martin Houde
I am no microbe
09:44 PM on 10/26/2011
Look at her other comments. It is an ironic post : Syria has no oil, but these countries do.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
shoosh09
Its time for a PALESTINE!
10:13 AM on 10/22/2011
Maybe the U.S. and its "ALLIES" (Israel), should stay out of this problem and let the citizens of that country take care of business. We don't need another useless war. Our country has become a nagging grandmother maybe it is time for us to step aside.
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50Yard
03:30 PM on 10/22/2011
"Maybe the U.S. and its "ALLIES" (Israel), should stay out of this problem"

So tell me Mr.Genius. In which country Israel got involved concerning the the so called "Arab spring".
04:11 PM on 10/22/2011
No Shoosh09, All of the free world are allies of the US. Its only short sited people like yourself who think Israel is the issue. Just look at the 'Israeli spring' where tens of thousands of Jewish and Palestinian people protested against the government for housing etc and There was not even one death. Israel only responds to attacks on its territory / citizens from the Arab world.. Blaming Israel for the blood lust of the Arab world is simply wrong.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
shoosh09
Its time for a PALESTINE!
11:44 AM on 10/23/2011
"All of the free world are allies of the US"
Yeah ofcourse Saudi Arabia is "free" that is why women can't drive,vote or leave the house w/o a chaperon. Egypt is also an ally, and that government screwed over its people, I can go on and on. An American friend is one with oil or bases. Doesn't matter if you're free or not.
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09:12 AM on 10/22/2011
When will it be the turn of Israel, which has been massacring Palestinians for 63 years, especially the Ehud Olmert?

"The Mission found that, in the lead up to the Israeli military assault on Gaza, Israel imposed a blockade amounting to collective punishment and carried out a systematic policy of progressive isolation and deprivation of the Gaza Strip. During the Israeli military operation, code-named "Operation Cast Lead," houses, factories, wells, schools, hospitals, police stations and other public buildings were destroyed… More than 1,400 people were killed during the military operation…
The report concludes that the Israeli military operation was directed at the people of Gaza as a whole, in furtherance of an overall and continuing policy aimed at punishing the Gaza population, and in a deliberate policy of disproportionate force aimed at the civilian population. The destruction of food supply installations, water sanitation systems, concrete factories and residential houses was the result of a deliberate and systematic policy which has made the daily process of living, and dignified living, more difficult for the civilian population…"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8257446.stm
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kodimirpal
teacher
10:11 AM on 10/22/2011
Israel is a fit case for Nuremberg type of trial and Belgrade type American bombings.

Israel is the only regime that has violated more than 60 resolutions of the UN Security council, the UN Charter, ICCPR, ICESCR and Geneva Conventions.

Israel is the only one in the whole, West Asian region which has the possession of over 200 thermo-nuclear weapons.

It has neither signed NPT( but Iran has) nor allowed weapons inspection( Iran has allowed) despite the UNSC resolution 687 of 1991 which call for West Asia Free from Nuclear weapons and WMD.

It has a long record of uprooting Palestinians( about 7 million refugees) occupying all their territories in 1967.

The recent UN report has accused Israel of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Why does the world community( read the US) allow Israel to stand above the law?

NO one has the answer. Or every one knows the answer but scared to spell it out in order not to displease the big bosses, the moneyed people, those who police the world and who are economically, militarily, politically and industrially powerful under whose influence the UNO is run.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
shoosh09
Its time for a PALESTINE!
10:22 AM on 10/22/2011
...and yet the world is still turning the blind eye, afraid to be called an antisemite.
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50Yard
03:54 PM on 10/22/2011
"When will it be the turn of Israel, which has been massacring Palestinia­ns for 63 years, especially the Ehud Olmert? "

First thing first. The so called "Palestinians" was invented after 1967. your reference to 63 years can be explained in only 2 way. First, your are completely ignorant about the history of the conflict (In my opinion you are not) Or second, your post lacks any shred of integrity (as usual by ALL pro terrorist on HP) and full of clumsy attempts to distort the history of the conflict.

FYI, in the last 64 years Muslim killed Muslims by the Millions, but that of course is not a fact that have any value to you, because we both know that it's not the lost life is what concern you. The only life you pretend to care about is life that was lost by Israeli gun. That's when you dance on the spieled blood pointing fingers at Israel.
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50Yard
04:22 PM on 10/22/2011
Spelling correction. "spilled blood".
09:01 AM on 10/22/2011
The US should stop playing the role of the world's policeman and holster its gun, turn in its badge. A mere 38k for one Stinger missile? How many homeowners could get bailed out of their personal mortgage crisis for the price of ten missiles?

The Syrians should deal with their own issues, in their own way, by their own hand. Let us not forget they have not even asked for our help, nor do we know what view's a new regime will hold towards this country.

Even of the misguided wars in Muslim countries, let's focus on fixing America.
10:18 AM on 10/22/2011
Sorry, the last line should have read "enough of the misguided wars .....
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
10:23 AM on 10/22/2011
His main concern is how to destroy Syria on the cheap. That's the isreaIi way of being concerned with the well being of the Syrians.
04:19 PM on 10/22/2011
Fairway Israel is concerned with defending itself on the cheap so it can improve the lives of its Jewish, Christian and Muslim citizens.
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cdncommentator
10:47 AM on 10/24/2011
If Israel wanted to destroy Syria, it could easily.

The fact that it hasn't is testament to the fact that what you have to say is insane rhetoric devoid of any analysis or truthfulness.
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morristhewise
08:34 AM on 10/22/2011
Parliamentary contenders must be watched, only those with pro-Western views should be funded. Political bad boys should not be given a chance to have a seat in the new assembly of democratic Libya.
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Sheldon archer
Facebook name is Yuyun Archer
05:35 AM on 10/22/2011
Throughout history, the USA has never learned to M.Y.O.B. In a few years, people will be saying that Libya was better under Gaddafi. Also remember that since 2004 until when the UN recently got involved, Libya had a close relationship with the USA. In 2008, Foreign Minister Shalgam made an official visit to Washington, the first official visit by a Libyan Foreign Minister since 1972. During that visit the United States and Libya signed a science and technology cooperation agreement, The same year, the Libyan Claims Resolution Act was signed into law by President Bush, providing for the restoration of Libya’s sovereign, diplomatic, and official immunities before U.S. courts. Doesn't pay to be a friend of America
06:18 AM on 10/22/2011
Some people with good reputations, such as Robert Fisk writing for the UK's Independent newspaper, are already credibly making that statement.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kodimirpal
teacher
10:18 AM on 10/22/2011
The West suddenly fell in love with Gaddafi to do business.

Former British prime minister Tony Blair, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and former U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice all visited him to make profits for the Military Industrial Complex of the West.

Poor Gaddafi has failed to digest that western friendships might be the usual calm before the storm. The same leaders had been planning behind his back to unseat him.
Reason he has crossed the red line more often. A leader of a developing nation can be a tyrant, absolutely no problem to nato powers, as a matter of fact they love juntas and dictators, but make sure you are submissive to their dictates, rebels like Saddam Hussein be be dumped into the dust bin of histroy written by the vested world powers.
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cdncommentator
10:48 AM on 10/24/2011
Find me one country that doesn't pursue its interests outside of its own borders.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
10:27 AM on 10/22/2011
They don't care. The US wants the oil. So all they needed was to destroy Libya with 38.000 bombardments in 7 months.
01:23 PM on 10/22/2011
The liberated people of Libya are jubilant, fairwayhill and all the Gadaffi supporters are sad.
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chuck nathaniel
Your micro-bio is pending approval
11:28 PM on 10/22/2011
The US barely even imports oil from Libya. Your thinking of France, who led this charge.

Look broader.
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alkh3myst
Of course you can pay me in gum!
01:19 AM on 10/22/2011
Now Libya, but what about Israel, an oppressive regime that has killed far more people than Gaddafi and the Assads combined?
06:20 AM on 10/22/2011
Yeah, but Israel exercises a veto control over a more powerful country which will remain nameless.
09:17 AM on 10/22/2011
How dare you criticize Israel on AOL/HP? Watch your comment
disappear into the ether over the next few days...
01:14 AM on 10/22/2011
Arming the peaceful protestors is a surefire way to failure. The plan using Turkey to convey the weapons is rich coming from the gang who badmouths them regularly these days.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
01:20 AM on 10/22/2011
The intention is to destabilize Syria at all costs.
05:32 AM on 10/22/2011
Who first destabilised you?
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cdncommentator
10:49 AM on 10/24/2011
Syria doesn't need any outside help to be destablized. Its citizens are doing a fine job all by themselves.