Why the Democrats Are Losing Ground As Obama Is Gaining It

While the President is off being the leader of the free world and trying to restore prosperity at home, someone needs to manage the blind trust of the Democratic Party before its assets dwindle like shares of Citigroup. President Obama's approval ratings have continued to break records, and with good reason. In less than 3 months, he has already proven himself remarkably capable as a leader, in getting a stimulus package passed (while learning some hard lessons about splitting the difference in policy with the people who created the mess); steadfastly refusing to jettison health care, energy, and education reform from his budget in tough economic times; beginning to heal the deep wounds left by his predecessor in the U.S.'s relationship with the rest of the world through both his mastery of foreign affairs and his emotional intelligence as diplomat-in-chief; and even signaling his intention to take on comprehensive immigration reform. All of this has happened as Republicans have seemed increasingly impotent, ideologically inflexible, and oppositional, none of which endears them to anyone but the 30% who still think Bush was a great president (and apparently remain off their medication).

Yet at the same time, something else is happening under the radar: the fortunes of Democrats more generally are starting to wane. March was a good month for Barack Obama but a bad month for the Democratic Party. As the latest Rasmussen polls show, in March the percent of voters who consider themselves Democrats dropped by 2 percent--four times the rate of decline among Republicans (even as the Republicans were publicly flailing, producing numberless budgets, and unwittingly branding themselves as the party of old ideas and the party of "no"). More ominous, the margin of voters supporting a Democrat over a Republican in a generic ballot for Congress dropped to its lowest point since both the Iraq War and the economy had clearly gone south by 2006: one percent (40 vs. 39%).

So how could it be that President Obama's standing in the polls is holding steady or improving while Democrats' standing in the polls is falling? And does it matter, so long as he is able to get his agenda passed through a heavily Democratic House and Senate?

Let's start with the second question first. It does matter. The President's ability to stay on the path he has charted requires not only Democrats holding or increasing their majorities in 2010 but on their holding onto public support for sweeping change. It also requires moderate Democrats and those from conservative states and districts to feel comfortable voting for new spending, and likely a second stimulus package, knowing that they will be attacked in the next election with the familiar refrains of big-government tax-and-spend liberals (if not socialists).

And as for the first question, the paradoxical popularity of the new President while the fortunes of his party are waning, not only makes sense but is predictable from an understanding of the psychology of public opinion and "branding." Any marketing executive will tell you that a good product is certainly a big help for sales, particularly if the competition is producing lemons. That's the situation we have now in American politics, where the Democrats are producing solutions where Republicans manufactured problems, and where the Republicans are now trying to re-sell "pre-owned" ideological vehicles that have a bad habit of running into ditches.

But the best products fail without good branding. In politics, you don't win on ideas alone. Comprehensive energy reform was a no-brainer after OPEC began embargoing oil 35 years ago, but the percent of our energy we are importing from overseas has only skyrocketed since then, and Americans were buying Hummers until gas hit $4.00 a gallon. Health care reform made good sense in 1993, but last I looked, it hasn't happened. Successful branding requires two things: creating positive associations to your own brand, and differentiating it from competing brands. In politics, that means offering voters a clear, memorable, emotionally compelling narrative about your party's core principles, while presenting them with an equally clear, memorable, and evocative story about the other party that would not make anyone want to be associated with it. If there were ever a time Democrats could offer both stories, this is it.

But the failure of Democrats to brand themselves has been a perennial problem since the breakdown of the New Deal coalition in the 1970s, and it remains a major problem today, leaving Republicans the opportunity, once they get their ideological chops back, to start branding both parties again, as they have for the better part of thirty years. Democrats stand for spending our way out of a looming Depression--a sound policy when no one else has the money or chutzpa to spend or invest--but how does that differ from the fiscal irresponsibility with which Ronald Reagan branded the party of "tax and spend" 30 years ago? Democrats stand for shifting to clean, safe 21st century sources of energy rather than relying on the fossil fuels of the last two centuries, but then why is the Secretary of the Interior waxing poetic about expanded offshore drilling?

It's hard for people to hear your message when you aren't speaking. I suspect few Americans even know that Governor Tim Kaine is the new DNC chair, while his RNC counterpart, Michael Steele, is at least busy publicly humiliating himself. And the President has inadvertently chosen to keep his popularity to himself. Whereas Bill Clinton rebranded himself--and by extension, his party--as a "different kind of Democrat" than the voters had repeatedly rejected in national elections, President Obama has branded himself as above partisanship--as the Un-Democrat. That may be a laudable goal--the same laudable goal, in fact, that the Founders had in mind for the Presidency--until President Washington, who won the office by universal acclamation, chose to step down, at which point partisan politics erupted, and we have been largely a two-party nation ever since.

Perhaps President Obama will succeed where Adams and Jefferson could not, and America will become not only a post-racial society but a post-partisan one. But if he does not succeed in turning a broken economy around substantially by the summer of 2010 and reminding the American people on a regular basis (repetition is essential psychologically, neurologically, and empirically to branding) that he and his fellow Democrats are trying to pull the nation out of the ditch the Republicans left us in by the side of the road, his administration will gradually become associated in voters' minds with the economic crisis he inherited, and he will find himself working with a Congress far less friendly to progressive reforms in two years.

Under similar circumstances, FDR trumpeted the failures of the Republican leadership and ideology that created the Great Depression while still managing to unite a terrified nation around not only his own charismatic presence but around New Deal reforms--reforms he could never have enacted if he had not contrasted the failed ideology that had led the nation over the economic cliff with the radically different solutions he and his party were offering. Roosevelt's consistent branding of the Republicans as inflexible ideologues at the same time as he showed what progressive, pragmatic action and Democratic leadership could offer led to a political realignment that lasted 40 years.

That is not President Obama's style. He prefers to say that mistakes "were made" (but not by whom). He is comfortable attacking "greed" as long as he doesn't have to attribute it to anyone in particular. (He did fire one man in Detroit for the failings of the American auto industry, but he retained all the corrupt, greedy, and incompetent executives on Wall Street who made it impossible for anyone to get a loan to buy a car.)

The hope, of course, is that voters will see improvements in their lives and connect them to the party in power even if it doesn't make terribly strenuous efforts to take credit for those improvements. And perhaps that will translate to a shift in partisan affiliation that will sustain the President's agenda long enough for it to work or even beyond. But it is a risky strategy to refuse to brand the other side for the problems they created and to refuse to brand your own side for the solutions you offer and the principles that underlie those solutions. The President often speaks of principles, and in so doing has taken Democratic rhetoric to precisely where it needs to be, in the realm of values (as in his stirring lines about parents turning off the television set and reading to their kids when talking about education reform). But the average American associates those principles with Obama, not with the Democratic Party, because Democrats outside the Oval Office remain long on policies and short on clearly, colloquially stated principles.

It may well be that this President is temperamentally unwilling, unable, or uninterested in speaking unpleasant truths about people who did unpleasant things to a lot of people. And it may be that that's a good thing. Our politics have certainly been unpleasant for a long time, and he's trying to change that.

But the reality is that millions of Americans are out of work, and most hard working Americans have lost nearly half of their wealth, and many their homes, because of the way George W. Bush and the radical Republican ideologues who enabled him ran the government--and ran it into the ground. The reality is that we had a surplus when Bill Clinton left office, and the only reason President Obama inherited a $1.2 trillion deficit that now constrains him is that George W. Bush and the radical Republicans believed in handing out suitcases full of cash to their wealthy friends with no strings attached and no transparency. Personally, I think that bears saying, and I think it particularly bears saying every time those same Republicans preach fiscal discipline, heap scorn on government "bailouts" they both necessitated and engineered, or offer their quasi-religious answer of "the free market" to every problem the market has created or failed to solve, from the crisis in the housing industry and the lack of regulations on Wall Street that took down our economy (and the world economy along with it) to the fact that most working Americans are now afraid of changing jobs for fear of losing their health insurance. Republican politicians would certainly be a little less quick to step up to the microphone if they knew that every time they talked about fiscal discipline, a Democrat would be there to remind them that they were the ones who went on a 6-year spending spree with our children's money and then handed the better part of a trillion dollars out to Wall Street bankers and speculators, sacrificing the American taxpayer at the altar of their free-market extremism.

It may be that the President is not the right messenger for this message (although FDR had no trouble being both an inspirational and transformational leader while also leading his party, and the Republicans became the "Party of Lincoln" after the gangly leader from Illinois not only said a few choice things about those who wanted to hang onto their slaves but actually sent an army after them). And it could be that he is right to stand above the fray. It could also be that House and Senate Democrats need to be more forceful with the media about covering their statements, since their leadership has been less reluctant to talk in partisan tones.

But someone needs to be in the fray other than the GOP. The worst thing to be in politics is silent, because it allows the other side to shape public sentiment uncontested. It wouldn't hurt to have a Southern voice like Tim Kaine's behind a megaphone with a "D" written on it. But whether it's Kaine or someone else with credibility and charisma, somebody needs to start saying what Democrats and Republicans stand for other than Newt Gingrich, John Boehner, and Richard Shelby. That's a lesson we should have learned a long time ago.

In politics, there is nothing so deadly as silence.

Drew Westen, Ph.D., is Professor of Psychology and Psychiatry at Emory University, founder of Westen Strategies, and author of "The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation."

Comments

[KimB3329]

Interesting analysis. Judging by the poll results,it seems like most of us realise that the stimulus was authored by Nancy Pelosi (and her laundry list of spending) and not really Pres. Obama. Even Conservative commentators have made the same observation. That explains Congress' sinking 30%+/- job approval rating and President Obama's 60.

[Tom Petkunas]

Repubs approval rating is in the 20's and the Dems is in the 40's. Obama's popularity is not sinking.

[AnnfromCA]

Interesting article. However, Obama hasn't hidden from Democrats that he's not sharing the wealth of doner money or much else, really. He's about his own re-election. Congressional candidates are going to have to map out their own path, and quite a few people like Obama and do not like the spending.

[dianhow]

ALL politicians are about re election. If they don;t get elected- they can not make policy and change America. Obama could make millions more in the private sector. I'm glad he decided to run- for what ever reason. It was way past time to break the long cycle of GOP RULE - 20 of the last 28 years. Power and control held too long by any one party leads to massive greed / unethical behavior. as we have seen. History teaches that lesson well.

[LTBROWN]

Thanks Dianhow, for clearing that up for Cali's Ann. lol

[ProgressiveChange]

Democrats are repeating their arrogance, which lost them the House & Senate in 1994. They have done a terrible job of vetting appointees. They have failed to screen the most egregious, hypocritical, immoral, and unacceptable players in our economic debacle and healthcare crises. While they have proven their political cowardice by taking impeachment of Bush & Co. off the table … deep-sixing efforts to hold it accountable for the Iraq debacle … enabled crooked banks and bankers to survive through massive bail-outs … allowed the screw-up and corruption of healthcare reform by pay-to-play politics … this is not Change We Can Believe In.

Vomiting on our heads and telling us that it is a ‘come together’, uniting-the-country strategy ... is offensive and outrageous.

Bayh, Baucus, Reid, most of the GOP in Congress, et. al. are chomping at the bit to pass what they will call 'healthcare reform' ... celebrate it and hype it as landmark ‘reform’. They will let the next generation deal with massive systemic failures inclusive of excessive and unnecessary costs, fraud-waste-abuse, and quality and patient safety deficiencies. Their legacy will be the expansion of a fragmented, unaccountable, and for-profit multi-payer, multi-amoral system rife with the greedy on steroids.

The public senses B.S. even if it can't quite put its fingers on the depth and scope of it. Democrats will pay a price for their gamesmanship down the road.

[dianhow]

Whatever the ' sins ' of the DEMS. It was way past time to break the LONG GOP cycle of greed / unethical behavior. GOP had their time- election results were CLEAR>
Absolute power - corrupts absolutely. HAd a GOP Pres 20 of the last 28 years.
WAY TOO LONG.

[LTBROWN]

Hear, hear! Go dianhow, Go! lol

[Libernaut]

Thanks for your thoughts. I couldh't agree more.

[dianhow]

DEMS arrogant ? GOP are the ones who have been in power 20 of the last 28 years - they were in control. BUSh / Cheney got off very easy. Dumped their toxic mess on Obama. Bush / Cheney started a Pre emtive war that cost billions - 1000's killed - limbs lost - soldiers brain damaged-. Bush even ignored a clear warning 1 month before 9 / 11 - about the BIn laden attack.
That was our ' Christian compassionate ' president for 8 years. Hog wash.

[bsween]

they always do as long as we keep sending the wrong people up to wash these problems will never go away name an adminstration that didnt have bumps in the road we dont live in a perfect world although some on the left and right will always have someone to blame THEMSELVES

[loveu2]

I think you're right about the public catching on to B.S. so I believe the Democrats will be o.k. We'll just keep reminding them of Clinton's big surplus and balanced budget, and what Bush did with the "golden" gift he was left!

[websmith]

90% of Americans were and continue to be against the bank bailout and much more has taken place since the change. 90% of Americans are not Democrats.

65% of Americans were and continue to be against the wars, but they are still going on with no end in sight since the change. 65% of Americans are not Democrats.

70% of Americans are against amnesty for illegal aliens, but the legislature has continued to try to sneak these amnesty bills through since the change. 70% of Americans are not Democrats.

We see $13 per week lowering of our taxes, but we see an attempt to impose cap and trade which will cost us many times more than our tax reductions. We see legislation continuing to be pushed for on behalf of big business that will deprive many more of us of our jobs. HR875 and SR425 for example. We see government growing bigger and more intrusive.

We see most of what we are opposed to getting worse rather than better after the change.

http://ewebsmith.com/Gov/stillnotlistening.html

[dianhow]

Once Bush / Cheney went to war , pre emtively , in Iraq - it became incredibly hard to UNDO it.
As Colin Powell said - we now own it. We are in uncharted territory with this Bush meltdown - whatever we do to curb it will be very painful. That' s what Bush/ Cheney left us. THey get off scott free.

[loveu2]

I disagree. I don't see the Constitution being trashed like it was with Bush-Cheney. I don't see people being denied access to the Pres. and VP, like when the GOP was running things. I don't see the whole world, including our allies, hating us like before.

[greeneink]

Part III: So all of these doomsday prophetics are not helping him keep everyone's spirit and energy polished up for the finale. He told us to look up, smile, hold tight. It's going to get better. At least let the man have 1/100th of the time it took Republicans to screw the nation to get it back on it's feet again. He's still a week off from his third month in office, give him room to breathe, will you please. And stop talking about him and referring to him like he's a newborn baby. He's been around a minute, and has his feet solidly planted on terra firma.

[loveu2]

So true. He's a grown-up and he's SMART!

[greeneink]

Let's make this perfectly clear: Parties, all of them - Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, what have you, are a footstool to get a candidate elected. He has to step up on that footstool and let them boost, or jettison, or propel him. He is not endeared to that party except by pure loyalty, once it's over because once they have released him - he then becomes the President of all citizens of the USA, regardless of party; and regardless of whether or not they like it. It is what it is. That said...Pre­s. Obama is no one's a, b or c candidate. He's the President. He is the first one I've ever seen hit the ground running Ready on Day One and he is doing very very well right now. The Democrats who elected him, the Republicans who voted for him, those who didn't vote for him and those who didn't vote at all can't be sunk deep enough in Lalaland that they forget it's going to take a minute to pull this nation out of 150 years of Republican error, let alone the last eight.

[bsween]

another one not able to take responsibility BO admin hit the ground blaming everyone they could think of i seem to have to remind alot of people on this site there are 537 elected officials in washington bills are passed through the congress then the senate then on to the white house like it or not whoever is in the white house no one person can be to blame they the politicians can be part of the problem or part of the solution not the old its not my fault GUTLESS all of them

[ReElectNoOne]

As a Democrat I think there are other issues at work here. For one thing the current congress is still full of some of the same democrats who bear responsibility for handing Bush many of his ill-conceived powers.

They need to publicly atone for their bad judgment and promise America to do all they can to undo bad laws of the past 8 years.

Second...t­he DNC needs to spend some money on Madison Avenue. Hire some of the best marketing and branding people they can find and follow their advice.

Politics has two phases...t­he get elected phase and the get to work phase. Marketing is where it is at in the first phase and must continue alongside the second phase.

Part of Obama's appeal is that he is always marketing himself and his plans. Most in congress drop out of public view until it is time to ask for votes again. A big mistake.

[randomx6]

Isn't "marketing" rather than getting to work, what got us in this mess to begin with?

[dianhow]

GOP will try everything to get power and control BACK ! Obama is very popular - after 3 months of working very hard to 'stop the bleeding ' He handled the pirate issue united well. As his policies begin to take effect - his numbers will get even better. Yes there will be errors- but he is willing to admit them- and move forward. While the hard line GOP falters and sounds more and more angry & irrevelant - Voters realize that the GOP had ' ruled '
this country for 20 of the last 28 years-most with a GOP congress. And that brought us 2 wars & a world w ide meltdown. Wall st / investment bankers unethical practices need over sight & common sense rules. We had that - before Reagan/ Bush's legacy of deregulating WAll st & bankers so we can curb their incredible GREED - . not so much different than Madoff's scam - but much much worse.

[bsween]

the dems are responsible for the mortage meltdown thats what they should be taking responsibility for its easy to blame someone else by the way for the first time we have a president that trashes the office he spent 750 million buying what the word CHANGE i think not who is the bigger fool the fool or the fool who follows him

[LinuxDude]

Unfortunately, the premise of this article is not sound.

The Democrat Party is losing support, true, but Obama's ratings have also fallen from the high 60's to the mid 50's. Check out Rasmussen.

Both are losing favorability.

[dianhow]

LINUX- Not really. POLL results hugely depend of who conducted them and how the question is phrased. SO you can quote any poll whose results you agree with. Point is- Obama is running as fast as he can to ' stop the bleeding ' We can all sit back and second guess him.
Or be reasonable and give him 18 -24 months to see if we are moving in the right direction.
THat's the ONLY POLL that counts.

[StillIRise]

Key word: Rasmussen!

[J-Rome]

The Rasmussen Poll is completely useless as an indicator of public opinion.

[SOLERSO68]

I checked out the rassmussen page and thier daily tracking poll has him betweem 55 and 58 which is at the lower end of most other polls. all polls also have REPUBLICANS sinking, and they were already in the low 30's. Other interesting poll numbers from your chosen poll
62% believe the middle class pays more in taxes than the wealthy, over 70% believe Pres Obama "making the right changes at the right pace", 42% STRONGLY approve of pres obamas job performance. And this is rassmussen, the favorite poll of conservatives, frequently cited by conservative becuase of numbers consistently more favorable to conservative. the take way from this is that even the favorite conservative polls have the pres and his agenda in an overwhelmingly strong position. negative politics drive poll numbers down, and as long as republicans keep attacking ( what else are they able to do?) they will push down Dem number, but they will also keep pushing repub numbers, (which are already in the toilet) even further down.

[whatnowgop]

Rasmussen is the only poll that says this and I'm not surprised. When Republcans need a glimmer of hope that is where they go. Rasmussen was way off the mark the last election and had to rectify themselves near the end so they didn't look stupid. As long as you are a happy camper going there be our guest. Republicans normally don't don't see past their nose anyway. They are stuck in a rut the party of now ideas. They still believe there has not been a generational change and they are still mainstream in their policies. That too is ok with us. This and relying on their old institutions is part of where they get the title of Conservatives. Conserving old institutions.

[loveu2]

if the GOP doesn't find a few YOUNG, SMART people who know how to "work" the internet, they're finished. Obama and posse KNOW that stuff!

[lady49]

Two intrinsic factors to keep in mind:
1) Rassmusen and ZOGBY are right-leaning polls and have been cited as the least reliable polling source.
2) Over 1.2 million Republicans uniwsely registered as democrats to "Upset the apple cart" as their unwise leader told them to. By now, the repercussions of fines and possible jail time has sent quite a few "democrats for the primaries" only who have been consistently changing their registrations back as republicans.

I light of these factors, I think dems are ok. They need to focus on making sure their numbers are in place for the upcoming Senate and Governor's elections for 2010.

[dianhow]

Many folks do not answer polls 'honestly ' that ask if they are D or R
. Millions now consider themselves Independant voters - as I do.

[emmasvoice]

AMEN! I agree. The Dems are fine.

[bsween]

dear lady49 that is the dumbest thing i have ever seen on this site you give mankind a bad name

[jerrypl]

Dr. Weston understands the psychology that the Democrats need to get behind in order to counter with intelligence and conviction the facts that the Republi-CONS where the ones who got us more deeply in this economic mess. The Democrats MUST stand up to the bubbleheads attacking them. The Republi-CONS are so full of clowns I don't believe it would too hard. Yet, Congress must move ahead on sweeping reforms: health care, financial regulations, unemployment, and more. But they are often cowardly and only willing to move as far as they wish in order to secure reelection instead of protecting the country from a coming depression, which would kill their reelection fantasies anyway.

President Obama must also axe Summers and Geithner and get better people on his team, otherwise the nation will see that these two are just hitmen working for the Wall Street crime syndicate.

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

[Dalpine]

The general consensus, including Warren Buffet, agree that the root of the financial mess was the housing bust. Billions in loans were made to people who were unqualified to pay so when prices crashed the banks who loaned the money and related derivatives crashed. Political pressure for these loans to be made began in the last decade. It's a mistake to finger point as it could come back to bite you.

[bsween]

great idea lets get rid of half the crooks and keep the ones we like

[Bobzmcishl]

The Republican's know that Obama has a teflon coating just like Reagan had. He is just too smart for them. So the Republicans are going after Pelosi and Reid who aren't so adept at deflecting criticism. But when push comes to shove, the Democrats will still carry the day. The Republicans have just looked plain stupid in their attempts to reenact Herbert Hoovers ghost.

[dianhow]

as a former Repub - I voted for Reagan / Bush SR . I'm amazed what the GOP has become.
All I see is anger- smears & lies . I'm 65 and as a kid I recall Eisenhower. None of this was going on then. The far right has ' taken over' the GOP - with their extreme views that are out of touch with average voters. I voted for Obama and am pleased, so far, with what he has done. I do not agree with all he says- But I never expect to agree with any President on all issues. GOP has ruled us for 20 of the last 28 years -many most with a GOP congress. A ll they have left in their wake is a unnecessary war- trilions spent and many dead or crippled- showed extreme greed and allowed WAll fat cats to conduct unethical practices and given them huge tax breaks even to CO's who sent jobs overseas. They have mostly ignored the workers / middle class of America. Bush admin even went to court to prevent any regulation ! Who was he protecting there ?
Google ' Bush war crimes ' and see what you get. . .
Their LEGACY has been massive greed - deregulation - favoring corporate America, while
others suffer.

[iblogleft]

You are absolutely correct. The republican party is not what is was, or what it was supposed to represent.

[ringo3khan]

Fascinating analysis; Dems are finally starting to notice. The Repubs haven't. I'd like to see some more hard numbers come in. My guess is that both the Dems and the Repubs are losing ground at this point and yet neither camp has quite figured out who they are losing nor what, if any, ideologiical camp the defectors are moving to. I'm looking for the emergence of a new silent minority made up of people who can't for reasons of conscience vote for Dems and, on the other hand, blame the Repubs for the current state of the economy with which they no longer want any part of. There's no telling what these people will call themselves but my suspicion is that after long years of hard work ending in pointlessness because of the evil that is the economic/financial system neither Dems nor Repubs will ever "hear" from these people until it's too late. But, it might not be wise to turn your back on them whent the lights go out. And remember, when the lights do go out, they aren't talking, so you'll never hear them coming.

[Ratso]

Let's face it. Obama is clearly following a successful few months. His popularity is excellent, but it will plateau if he does not improve his record of appointments and begins to question the ethics of many who surround him. It seems like Geither is on a path to possible disaster. Obama has no idea about this? April 15 is approaching quickly to all except many of Obama's appointees and potential appointees (eg. Federal income taxes). Let's see how close the Illinois governer's debacle impacts some of Obama's friemnds. And, Dodd and Frank have no credability anymore as they are crooks. Obama is OK, but his sidekicks are much to be desired. Oh yea, get a new press secretary.

[Clavis]

If the media weren't in the tank for the top 1%, maybe they'd actually do their jobs and not just read right-wing press releases. Oh, well...

[LinuxDude]

The Media is in the tank for Obama.

[Brinna]

And who are you "in the tank with", LinuxDude?

[billydog]

I heard acouple of top pollsters talk about this very subject and they both said that the Dems decline was entirely predictable due to the fact that independents now realize that the Dems have all the power in Washington and the independents aren't sure how they like it and are tentatively moving from the Democrats to the GOP. Both pollsters say it is probably nothing for Democrats to worry about since the independents usually come back before the next election as long as they don't see any hard evidence that Democrats are abusing their power.