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A Political Masterstroke
Over the weekend, President Obama named Utah Governor Jon Huntsman as the next Ambassador to China, a masterstroke of political strategy.
Huntsman may be the most important person you've never heard of. He's a moderate Republican governor in one of the most conservative Republican states, where, until the time of his appointment, he enjoyed approval ratings above 80%. A few weeks back, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe unintentionally elevated Huntsman on the national stage by suggesting that he was one of the few Republican politicians that appeared formidable in 2012.
Huntsman is young, exceptionally smart, quick on his feet, amiable and incredibly articulate; when he speaks, he exudes reasonableness, a quality almost entirely void in the modern Republican party. He has the potential to be for the Republican Party what Obama was for the Democrats - a man capable of simultaneously exciting his base while appealing to an ever-more critical group of Independent voters. To hear him speak is to know he's a guy an Independent would love.
In the wake of Plouffe's comments, and a few high profile trips to critical presidential states, Jon Huntsman made his way onto just about every Washington insider's list of possible 2012 Republican contenders. That is, until he joined the Obama administration.
Huntsman made a calculation, one that other qualified Republicans will no doubt make when contemplating a run against Obama. Anyone smart enough, capable enough to compete against Obama is going to be smart enough not to run. When Obama kicks off his re-election campaign, he'll do so with a two million member donor base already in place. He'll do so with over one million volunteers ready to be reactivated. In his first month, he'll likely raise more than $100 million dollars. His re-election will dwarf his first campaign is size and scope, just as his first campaign dwarfed its online fundraising predecessor in Howard Dean. Just with sheer organization, President Obama will be the most difficult presidential incumbent to defeat in American history. Why fall on that sword, Huntsman must have wondered, when Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin have already eagerly volunteered?
And so, Governor Huntsman will become Ambassador Huntsman and will spend the next few years building his foreign policy credentials for a shot at the White House in 2016. Many on the left have already expressed frustration that Obama would provide such a valuable talking point to the opposition of his successor, and have argued that Obama sold out his party to protect his own reelection. But Obama too has made a calculation, and it has nothing to do with 2012.
The president recognizes that the Republican party is quickly unfurling and that those currently leading it will be incapable, over the next few years, of righting such a wayward ship. There are few Republicans who can fill the void, reverse the hemorrhaging and rebuild the party. Huntsman, once counted among those few, is now off the stage, and on the other side of the world. By co-opting such a valuable politician, Obama has left the GOP flailing. Without a reasonable voice, the noise that has become the skeleton of a once dominant party will echo, unchecked.
Will the ambassadorship help Huntsman in his presidential bid in 2016? Surely, to some extent it will. Adding foreign policy experience to a governor's resume does make for an appealing candidate. But it doesn't lessen the obstacle that Huntsman will face - a Republican primary electorate that will be as unforgiving of his Mormonism as it will be of his time in the Obama administration. And after eight years of John Boehner and Sarah Palin, of Mitch McConnell and Rush Limbaugh, Huntsman may find that there isn't much party left to mobilize. Ultimately Obama understood what Lyndon Johnson said best: "Better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."
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Perhaps the most unplanned irony in this article: And so, Governor Huntsman will become Ambassador Huntsman and will spend the next few years building his foreign policy credentials for a shot at the White House in 2016."
So, a whopping four months into the first term, Obama, despite having NO foreign policy credentials prior to his inauguration, is a lock over the guy with governing experience and considerable foreign policy experience??
Excellent, thoughtful analysis, Dylan. Just a coda to your point about the 2012 republikan race, however: even if he were dumb enough to challenge Obama in four years (he's not), Huntsman would likely be vilified by his own party leadership - Cheney and Limbaugh - for not being "righteous" enough, just as they have attacked Colin Powell, John McCain, and any other 'pub who is not a full-throated supporter of torture, and opponent of gay marriage or abortion rights.
I have had about all the change I can stand. If you think for a moment that Obama is going to win a 2nd term after all the changes we have seen of late ... then you are as arrogant as our president. You cannot be of any sanity watching what is going on in this country. Case-in-point: Chrysler and its dealership network. How can we think it is okay for the government to walk in and dictate that an independent business person give up their dealership without compensation? We are clearly in deep trouble with this kind of change.
I do hope Jon Huntsman well in his new post. However, I hope he holds his bladder until he gets inside the tent.
I think we had better start searching now for a Democrat that is as charasmatic and intelligent as Obama to run in 1016 or we might end up with the Republican's in power again .
I don't care how nice a Republican Huntsman may be he still brings along with him the Republican party that has proven itself to be a disgrace to the United States standing in the way of any real change that this country so badly needs !
Check your typo - I presume you mean 2016! 1016 is in the past even by the Islamic calendar!
Here's my personal prediction:
(1) Obama gets reelected by as much a landslide as Reagan was. Only Texas will remain loyal to the Republican candidate.
(Those of you who will write how crazy I am - I might be. It is that - a prediction. If I am wrong you can all laugh at me after the election!)
(2) We already have our formidable candidate for 2016. It's Hillary Clinton of course. She will be endorsed by Obama and he will make his formidable campaign machine available to her.
Why else do you think she has been so cooperative and willing to be foreign secretary? (A job she is doing fantastically well by the way). Her only real problems were to follow the Rovian tradition of "go negative" - and miss the mood of the country in 2008. After 8 years of being closely involved with the Obama administration she will be far too formidable for any Republican.
..... and no, I was not a Hillary supporter in the primary. I have been acticively involved with the Obama organization since just after Iowa.
The question that should be asked is: Will Jon Huntsman be a good Ambassador to China? If we don't get a few things straightened out RIGHT NOW, it won't matter who is up for election in 2012, 2016, or any years beyond. On that crass, political strategy front (I wish we could have left this kind of thinking in the last century), America is not going to elect a Mormon for president and most independent voters won't consider one either because of the Mormon church's unforgivable stance on homosexuality. Mitt Romney got about as many votes as is possible while being aligned with such myopic social conservatism. An eighty percent approval rating from a state like Utah isn't saying much (Utah is peopled with a super-majority of Mormons) because one great thing about Mormons is that they know how to come to an agreement and work together. Much of the successful lobbying behind the recent anti-gay initiatives in California and Arizona was conducted by Mormon groups. In any case, the republican party HAS to divorce their mission from the conservative social agenda or face oblivion.
"An eighty percent approval rating from a state like Utah isn't saying much (Utah is peopled with a super-majority of Mormons) because one great thing about Mormons is that they know how to come to an agreement and work together. Much of the successful lobbying behind the recent anti-gay initiatives in California and Arizona was conducted by Mormon groups. In any case, the republican party HAS to divorce their mission from the conservative social agenda or face oblivion."
So you don't like Mormons because of their ability to agree and work together? Hell......I wish our Congress could EVER be accused of this. And the Mormons.......making up what.....1-2% of California's population were single handedly responsible for defeating the gay marriage amendment there? I would take a group like that in my camp any day. What is your rationale for the requirement that the conservative party drop the conservative social agenda? You do realize that the country is pretty much split down the middle on such things, right? Have you seen the latest polls on support of abortion?
Maybe not political strategy....maybe just pragmatism......O is making me prouder every day.
Imagine a Gov who values education and speaks Chinese ! and a Republican,,,good move O ! Wish all the ambassadors had the experience and language abilities as this pick......The future of the 'old' party is going to China.......
A reasonable republican? Maybe we should clone him. Common sense in Washington on both sides of the aisle? Is that possible?
There can only be one common sense. No other than one common sense is permissible. The United States will become a one party nation like Mexico or Red China or Russia because we have freed ourselves from the bonds of individual thought!
In the 2004 Presidential Election, 76% of the Utah voters voted for Bush. Utah was the MOST RED STATE in that election. The Utah voters were wrong in the 2004 election to vote for 4 more years of the disastrous Bush policies which had been on display for 4 years at the time --- but unfortunately a good, yet somewhat boring man, John Kerry ran against Bush, You know the rest.
The problem that I have with President Obama is that he is TRYING TOO HARD to make nice with the Republicans as a whole, who are voting AGAINST EVERYTHING THAT HE IS PUTTING FORWARD --- as if the whole Republican Party has been cloned.
Obama is sweeping up all of the moderate GOP's that he can get. One by one, Obama is reaching out a hand to the moderates to get off the GOPanic captained by Limbaugh.
In the campaign, David Plouffe said that the goal was to build an electoral coalition of Democrats, Indendents, and moderate GOPs. Anointing Uncle Rush as their leader (You can't listen to Rush Limbaugh and get anything done) was part of that plan. Remember, Biden and Clinton were instrumental in getting Specter to switch. Expect more to follow, especially leading up to the 2010 elections when the Iraq War will be coming to an end, and the economy clearly rebounding. Also expect more incriminating information to become a flood by then that will dwarf the torture revelations.
Obama had 5,000 lawyers in Florida alone last Nov. He knows what this party is all about. Unlike the simple-minded and short-sided GOP, Obama looks at the big picture and plans for the long haul, not just winning today's news cycle. And by the way, Utah was bluer than it was back in 2004.
He's sweeping up moderate Republicans by altering his positions to fit with theirs, not by convincing them of the error of their ways.
President Obama is proving what most of us already know he's a master political chess player. Not to mention an outstanding strategist. Agree totally with you -- a masterstroke, 'Indeed." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYkUXOvxs4w
Obama is trying too hard to make nice with Republicans? So blaming the prior administration for everything that is wrong in the US rather than assuming the responsibility that he worked hard for and doing something about it is making nice (I read that someone counted 28 jabs at the prior administration in yesterday's press conference)? Bashing of republican figureheads is making nice? Ramming votes through Congress without a single republican vote is making nice?
Frankly, I don't blame the republicans for voting "no". None of their input is being considered, so why should they vote in agreement with something they fundamentally disagree with? They are laying it all in the hands of the controlling party democrats. If the democratic ideas work, the dems get all the credit. If they don't work, the dems get all the blame. Therefore, if you have confidence in the administration and Congress, why do you even worry about republicans?
Their input would be considered if they actually offered something worthy of discussion. But their pig-headedness rids the Congress and the media of any kind of middle ground, merging of ideas or compromise. Until Republicans learn that they can't have everything, they will get nothing.
President Obama is and has been a brilliant leader. Taking a lesson from "A Team of Rivals" is genius.
I like Jon Huntsman, he is one of the very few decent, fair and reasonable Republicans. We live in Utah, and though we are Democrats, my husband voted for him in 08.
Leaders, brilliant or otherwise have one thing in common, they lead. Haven't seen much leading in the President, but he does have another 4 years to get started.
Maybe Pelosi will explain its because she relied on some Republican to do it for her.
And his being named ambassador to China precludes him throwing his hat into the 2012 ring how exactly?
If anything this resumé enhancement shows he is not a partisan ideologue which will help him precisely with that critical independent voter segment It also gives him credible international trade and foreign policy experience which is something Governors always seem to be weakest in if looking at resumés for running to be POTUS. It doesn't take him off the game board as I see things.
It'll get caught up on the ties.
It is SO hard to make hay over the likes of Barack Obama, a president's President.
He loves the leadership game and plays it well. Obama deals with one down moments in the Oval Office like they are long shot jump shots, slamdunking challenges to a winning end game.
So in basketball. So in politics.
Everytime I hear..here or on Fox or MSNBC or CNN that the President is in trouble..I know a rebound shot is about to come across the rim.
How to neutralize a would-be opponent in 2016?
Offer him refuge in China.
Get Huntsman out of his governorship in Utha, out of a country awash in a drowning GOP gushing garbage so that Huntsman is free and clear from taking GOP sides and can return the conquering hero.
Plus...Huntsman loves the opportunity to do just that.
This is an obvious political genius pick.
However, the REAL genius is that this choice is not only good for Obama and the Dems, but it is terrific for Huntsman. Now THAT's genius.
So, if ever you fret that anything will get too dicey for our President, roll the dice and call it a win, because it has been decades since this country had in its midst a political leader who also happens to be charismatic, principled and as savy as they come.
Just when we needed a transformative President...we got one, and then some.
2016? Do you think this appointment somehow has anything to do with anything in a post-Obama election cycle? I find that a stretch to say the least.
When Chick Corea and his band Return to Forever came to town here in SLC, Huntsman was in the audience, and proclaimed it Return to Forever Day in Utah. I mean, I didn't vote for him, but how could I disagree with that?
Obama Holding the enemies close me thinks... any conservative who likes Chick Corea has my vote! Huntsman will bring some of the Chinese wealth back to bail out Detroit Auto Makers. We'll all be buying cars at Wall Mart soon.
Maybe you could have a fracken beer with him and call it a day? Oh wait, I mean a non-caffeinated, non-alcoholic beverage. I like Chick Corea and fusion jazz as well, but that doesn't mean much of ANYTHING except that we could enjoy the same performance.
"When Obama kicks off his re-election campaign, he'll do so with a two million member donor base already in place"
At the rate he's emulating bush, I doubt it.
Or your wishful thinking doubts it.
China may be the most important ambassadorship in the State Department. I would like to believe that Obama took this position seriously and filled it with the best possible diplomat our nation has available. I choose to believe that the President of the United States is not as shallow and politically self-serving with our foreign policy as you suggested in this article.
Unfortunately I'm probably wrong and you're probably right.
He should've split the position between Oprah and Hillary
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