Good News Disguised as Bad

Last week, an NBC/WSJ poll piqued the concern of many in the Democratic party. The fears of those who believe the prolonged primary to be bitterly divisive seemed confirmed, with more than twenty percent of Obama and Clinton supporters claiming they won't vote for the other candidate in a general election. To make matters worse, John McCain's favorability has continued to climb; and while a recent survey indicated that 76% of the American people want a different approach than that of Bush, McCain is still within the margin of error in a general election matchup with Obama. It would seem to many as though the Democrats are in the process of squandering their best chance of reclaiming the White House.

But in politics, as with anything else, things are not always as they seem.

A poll is a snapshot in time and we've entered an especially unusual time in the race. While the Clinton campaign attacks Obama with the desperation of a wounded animal, McCain has dropped out of the news almost entirely, making only cameo appearances in the bulk of the media's coverage. Far away from the squabbles of campaign life, McCain has indeed enjoyed a temporary boost in his favorability rating, no doubt the result of being largely above the fray. But that is where the good news really ends for him.

After all, at a time when the American people have yet to associate John McCain with the policies of George Bush and the Republican Party, and at a time when Democratic primary voters are so polarized that one in five is planning to vote for McCain, McCain still finds himself in a statistical tie with Obama. Unless the Democratic race goes to the convention -- an outcome that party insiders are inclined to prevent -- McCain is unlikely to ever see a better set of circumstances for his candidacy. In this snapshot in time, Independents, Republicans, and a substantially inflated number of Hillary Democrats are actually voting for him. And yet, he still finds himself losing narrowly to Barack Obama.

If McCain can't win today, when will he ever?

We should be less concerned with what polling tells us about today, and more concerned with what it suggests about tomorrow. Today's atmospherics might be ripe for McCain, but there is little doubt that voter attitudes will change soon after the nomination fight is over. Come November, Barack Obama will have healed many, if not most of the wounds produced from a bloody primary battle. Sixty percent of voters still believe that Obama can unite the country, a tacit indication that voters still feel capable of coming together again. It is also likely that very few of those who claim they will abandon their party will actually do so; their responses, in many cases, are the product of the anger and frustration that grows out of fighting a long and losing battle.

Obama has proven, time and again, that he is a gifted campaigner, capable of delivering a resonant message. In each state that he has campaigned against Clinton, he has either won or significantly decreased the margin of his loss. As long as he is able to woo back at least some frustrated Clinton supporters, and as long as he spends his time and financial resources describing McCain, Bush, and the GOP as one and the same, Barack Obama is poised to do more than just win; he's poised to win in a landslide.

Comments

[Suprshrink]

This article does not get the point at all. Democrats are holding out hope that the right thing will happen. The right thing is defined by each voter according to whom they support. Only when there is a winner for the nomination will we see McCain gain momentum and perhaps win the White House. I, for one, will vote for him if the democrats fail to seat Florida and Michigan according to their vote or a re-vote. This disenfranchisement is an abomination and should never have happened among democrats who espouse their fairness and democratic ways.

[Sebastian11]

There are several reasons why McCain does not have a chance to win the White House. His association with George Bush and with lobbyists and special interests.
Bush has the lowest support among the American people in history. The reason for this is his failed policy in Iraq, and the squandering of the U.S. treasury at a rate of $12 billion a month, in a useless war, while millions of American homeowners are foreclosed. The economy is in shambles and the dollar loses value.
The New York Times report on February 20, 2008 that "For McCain, self-confidence on ethics has risk", indicates that his association with lobyists and special interests is another reason why Mc Cain will not win. This article is very revealing in terms of his non-chalant ethics concept.
The present apparent voter climb in his favor will fade away after the Democratic nomination. Furthermore, the American people will question, not only McCain's war rcord and economic policies, but also his "heroism". Why would becoming a prisoner of war or dropping bombs from a fighter plane, make a soldier a hero? If that were the case then every pilot in the war, would in fact also be a hero. The fact is that McCain is no more a maverick than any other veteran who fought in a war. This is not to say that he is not a nice person, but as long as he follows Bush's political philosophy, he does not have a chance.

[Truthortradition]

All the polls show that Hillary would defeat McCain by a bigger margin than Obama in important states like Florida and Ohio.
But you won't read those facts on Obama's Huffingtonpost.
The Republican oil machine has not even started their campaign against Obama------just wait til they are done.
Hillary is the only warrior who can withstand their dirty tricks.
I'm sorry she's not black or a man-----she's just a patriot fighting for all of us. I'm sorry she's not a sexual predator or a sexist or a racist or a communist or a socialist or a republican oil baron.
I'm sorry she's not sexy in the eyes of all the men. I'm also sorry that too many Democrats can't see the forest for the trees and still continue to vote for Obama, a man who doesn't fool me for a minute.

[b2008]

Because those facts are not true and totally ridiculous, that's why. Why should Huffington Post spread a bunch of lies. Either you're looking out of Hitlary colored glasses or you have some secret polls somewhere that's Hitlary inclined to tell big ones. If 70% of the people tend to want change, Obama is the only one they can rely on for change. Hitlary and McCain are two of the same and who wants that but you.

[PiratePrentiss]

Hillary helped start Bush's war--she doesn't fool me for a minute

[websmith]

Not too long ago we elected a Democratic Congress because they said they would end the war. They obviously were lying.

Even though Hillary and Obama say that they will end the war, they both have plans to prolong it. They, too, are lying. People don't like to be lied to and they don't like to be ignored by their public servants.

[TheAirport]

Are you totally neglecting the fact that the future of Iraq is an extremely delicate and complex issue? Immediate total troop withdraw is not a credible option.

[Liberal2]

"..Are you totally neglecting the fact that the future of Iraq is an extremely delicate and complex issue.." And your expertise in such matters is_______________? The solution may be as simple as, "You have 24 hours to reach a compromise, then we leaving."

[ChrisInTennessee]

I can't defend the "Democratic" Congress or Senate - because they have not challenged bush and the boys and have too often gone belly up, but and it's a big but, in order to get anything passed in either house - that we the people want - requires a 2/3 majority, because bush vetoes everything that is good for the American people! A simple majority is not enough. When will people get this? You don't like the inaction in congress or the senate - vote bush's buddies out. I am appalled by my "representatives" - in northeast Tennessee, they vote the way bush tells them, and the people be damned! But they always write me a nice note telling me they appreciate my views and blah blah blah...

[mamamay]

HuffPost's Pick

Getting results from This congress is like the making of a good wine. We must give it time. It is not easy to get policies passed by Dem Congress when you still have a Rep Pres and many of his men still unwilling to do what is good for the Country. This Congress is slowly using its combined brains to do the right things for the Country in spite of the few who were out trying to run for the Pres's office. Let's give a little more time, and let's be a little more patience and wait for this congress to look at things from a different perspective,to settle the issues Not CR, ranting about his know it all about the world issues, and JMcC talking about what he and the govt aint gonna do when he's pres, combined with the complexed daily rhetoric out of Obama and the Clintons mouth over the media called news; this seems to be pushing the work of Congress to the back burner. Is it a R or not? Chill til er get back on track and Pres gets through with some of his last min travels. It will be okay. Obama will have an outstanding plan and crew to calm the rage of this war. Obama is the one, not this waffling hil, who speaks with the wind,to the poor and middle class, and nods to corporates to see if she has or has not misspoken.

[darker]

Good wine? This Congress is CORKED WINE: throw it out!
People that rotten will not ever do us any good.

[Glyph2112]

And yet Bush and Co. are still in office. Go figure.

[Glyph2112]

I keep reading that one poll has McCain winning, then others where Obama and Clinton both lead McCain. What I think these polls fail to account for is the groundswell of new democratic voters. Many of these polls tend to discount newly registered voters because they are not "likely voters". Also, no one is really hammering McCain yet on his stances. McCain is going to look very bad in the presidential debates trying to defend his flip flopping and his stands on very unpopular policies.

[Herrington]

Young voters are excluded from polling physically as well as through traditional methodology bias. They are not in the phone book. The wireless generation cannot be reached for comment.

[Lemeritus]

Good post and good points, Glyph.

[Rescisco]

The mere fact that McCain is close (given his addiction to the failures of the past eight years, the warm embrace of president twenty percent, and his repeated gaffes and displays of out right ignorance) is both incredible and scary. Be afraid, very afraid. Placing any trust in the wisdom of the American electorate is quite irrational.

[appleknocker]

Given the proven GOP expertise in stealing elections (voter ID, Diebold, etc.) if McCain only loses NARROWLY, he wins. The Dems need a landslide to actually take office..

[BarryChamplain]

When Democratic Candidate X swings his or her campaign into full gear in the general... how much do you want to bet, RIGHT NOW, that we won't see any TV spots featuring McCain hugging Bush?

Or McCain singing "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran... heh heh... heh heh..!"?

Or shadowy shots, with ominous synth music on the soundtrack, of his fellow Hanoi Hilton guests, "revealing" that McNasty's POW buddies died, when he sold them down the river, in order to save his own hide?

No, that's not gonna happen. Because the cold slap upside the head that America's Stupids will need, in order to understand that they'd only be re-electing for the third term the regime of a guy with a 20-something percent approval rating, will simply be too rude and untoward, for a bunch of high-minded Democrats like us. No siree. We'll be cruisin' on that high road like ol' Tod and Buzz.

Meanwhile Karl Rove already has two folders on his desk, marked "Bitch" and "Black". Karl doesn't do the high road. He just wins.

I'll say it bluntly. If the Democratic Party hasn't got the honking gonads to go stark raving nuclear against McCain in the general, this time around... fuck 'em.

[mamamay]

I believe this is wishful thinking. McCain has too many problems and even though some of the probs started with Bush, McC needs Bush to supplement his own lack of world issues. Being a war hero,is not the need to restore America. We have many war heroes across America needing Health Care and decent HC facilities to assist these Heroes. McC has been in Congress for several terms,but it didn't appear that this was one of McC's priorties. The heroes who made it back have encountered many struggles. Cant find jobs;if they do, the pay does not allow him/her to adequately take care of the family. some heroes are still homeless. Why is JMcC so harsh on the heroes who is losing his home? Where is the human side of this man, who wants a free pass because his dad, granddad, et al were admirals? These heroes are some body's son or daughter too. We need a calm thinking, more even tempered person for Pres, not hot headed McC/

[Herrington]

Todd and Buzz. You are dating yourself Barry. How many reading here can name the duo in time and place?

[siciliabel]

From your mouth to the electorate's collective ear.

[pmhunt]

What planet do these pollsters come from, and where in the hell do they dig them.

I ask you all to go to MSNBC's website today, believe it or not, MSNBC did post something positive for Hillary, and find POLL: Clinton leads Obama, McCain in key states from Reuters.

In Florida: Hillary 44 McCain 42, Florida: McCain 46 Obama 37. In Ohio: Clinton 48 McCain 39, Ohio McCain 43 OBama 42 and in Pennsylvania: Clinton 48 McCain 40, Pennsylvania Obama 43 McCain 39.

Clinton leads Obama in Pennsylvania 50/41. Two weeks ago in Pennsylvania Clinton led Obama 53/41. Obama's number have not changed they are still at 41.

Pennsylvania Dems: Clinton 54 Obama 37, men tied at 46 for each.

If he can't do better than that, he is going to lose big in PA. OBama leads among young voters and Clinton leads big among older voters and women 63%.

So please stop the bullsh*t about Pennsylvania.

Hillary08/January 20, 2009

[Jandie]

pmhunt - Try again - the polls have changed and Obama is now AHEAD of Clinton in PA - so keep on dreaming! Also, even if she wins PA and ALL of the other states left to vote, she will still not catch up to Obama and her only resort is to "grovel" to the Superdelegates.

[pmhunt]

Hey Jandie, listen and listen good, I live in Pittsburgh and the polls are 50/41 Clinton, so once again stop the bullsh*t!

Try reading more than your palm, or your Obama crystal ball.

[pmhunt]

Hey Jandie, listen and listen good, the polls are 50/41 Clinton, pay attention before you speak. Now, of course, you could be reading that crystal ball again or is it your palm?

[IslandGyal]

pmhunt,
One can find a poll to prove one's point.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/04/obama-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania.html
Obama takes the lead in Pennsylvania

Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 43

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.

Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

[pmhunt]

Dream on! Try looking for the interview this morning on Marty Griffin's radio show talking to Jon Delano.

[montemalone]

The latest results from the CID poll:

Obama : 1
Hillary : 0
McCain : 0

(By the way, CID stands for cats in Dallas, and since my 2 cats can't talk, there vore don't count.)

[pmhunt]

Just what is a vore?

[PauCK]

Some people are stupid...and there is no cure. Anyone who says they won't vote for either will do one of two things. Not vote at all and give up their right to complain or vote for the bad guy just to spite one of the two good guys for engaging in politics. ( they are politicians after all, it's what they do )

Like the comic Ron White says, "You can't fix stupid"

[RAStewart]

I'm with Stefano on overconfidence. I too vividly remember liberal bloggers four years ago writing "Kerry in a landslide."

Yes, rationally it looks as if it should be an easy win for Democrats (especially--in my personal opinion--if Obama's our nominee). But then the United States turned away from rationality in 1980 and has never looked back. Never underestimate the power of Rovian attack politics, lazy, co-opted, and mostly Republican-owned corporate media, voter caging and vote fraud, the kind of Democratic muddle-headedness that JadedAggie writes about below, and I hate to say it, but most of all, the fact that a very large number of American voters are badly educated, ill-informed, incurious, intellectually lazy, and in the (carefully inculcated, by advertisers as well as politicians) habit of making decisions based on fear, prejudice, and short-sighted impulse rather than on reason and principle.

[moodpost]

Good comment. I think you are right. It's not going to keep me from giving my money and casting my vote based on reason and principle. If enough people do that, we all win.

[mhoiles]

Who are these pollsters calling? If nothing is certain in this primary, it is that the media and pollsters continue to get it wrong. Hillary gets support from more moderate democrats, Obama gets the liberal base and elitists. I will be voting for John McCain if Obama gets the nomination. Although I don't consider myself a patriot, I can't vote for a man who gets his spirtual guidance from a church leader who "god dams" America and plays the race card.

[bossjimgettys]

mhoiles, you'd rather vote for a man who called Falwell and Pat Robertson "agents of intolerance," then kissed both of their fat asses to get the evangelical thumbs-up, because you saw one 10-second video clip taken out of context? You would seem to have about as much integrity as McCain, that is to say, none whatsoever. You can be both a war hero and a pandering pig - yes, McCain is a pig. God Damn any American who voted for Bush, or would vote for McCain. I am soooo tired of racists using Wright's clips to justify their own hatred and/or fear of African Americans. You'll vote for McCain because you're stupid, racist, a 45+-year-old scared white woman or all of the above (HRC's base in a nutshell).

[sandpiper1]

I don't get it with some of these folks who keeps using Rev/Dr. Wright as an excuse and referring to him as anti american. He's an ex marine and ex navy. The 1st. amendment also guarantees him the right to free speech. Also, he was quoting from the Bible when he said God will punish nations who make war on other nations, killing His people. Rev/Dr. Wright said "it's says in the Bible, God damm America" based on what God said to his prophets/disciples. I have listened to other sermons of Rev/Dr.Wright and that's not the way he has preached in his 30 years on the pulpit. Go and do some work and research youtube for eg. b4 posting stupid/racists comments.
You may also want to check out this site:
northstarw­riters.com­/dc163 by Dan Calabrese written on March31/08 re. HRC's behaviour.

[23000Days]

Yeah!

[tdbach]

Watch the whole speech, not just the snippet curtousy of the MSM. To vote in the GOP based on bad information is tragic.

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/20080331_rev_wright_uncensored/

[RAStewart]

Tragic, yes, but on what other kind of information would you base a vote for the GOP?

[LeeAnnG]

Great, great comment. I so agree. We never see McCain supporter Hagee making slurs against the Catholic church on the corporate media. When has anyone talked about Francis Schaeffer, one of the founders of the religious right, who condemned America for excessive tolerance of gays and abortion? It's not even mentioned, much less played over and over and over and over ad nauseum.

The whole Reverend Wright issue is overdone, out of context, and absurd. We've got a president who lies, a vice president who couldn't care less about the people he is supposed to serve, evanglical nutjobs who want to turn the US into a theocracy, and the main thing the media can find to criticize Obama for is having a minister who (rightly, by the way) says god would condemn racism, lynching, legalized segregation, and other seriously inhumane treatment of other countries and people.

[JohnnyCanuck99]

Put McCain and Obama in 2 or 3 debates, I guess they already don't like each other. McCain is angry and dithering, Obama is cool and well-spoken, the two together in a debate will be Dennis the menace vs. Mr. Wilson. Obama should be able to handle McCain's popularity. Except for McCain's inevitable Rove-esque cheapshot dirty politics, Obama should be able to handle McCain very well.

[Titonwan]

President Obama. Got a real nice ring to it! Now off with you Republican trolls and Republican wannabe's. WE have no more time for your nonsense. Everytime I read one of your disgusting Hillary comments I want to vomit- on you. Be gone and go to REDSTATE where you belong. (trailer trash)

[leftcoastliberal]

Calling people trailer trash is essentially insulting them for being poor. Such insults are unworthy of Democrats. Ours is the party of the Little People.

The best reason for supporting Obama against Hillary is that he will actually help the "trailer trash" while she will continue sending them off to die in stupid and unnecessary foreign wars, he might actually re-jigger the economy to promote social equality, while she would doubtless continue the policies of her husband's crypto-Republican administration, during which time inequality grew faster than even under Reagan.

[FirstShirt]

Us republicans will take your trailer trash and give you the east coast aristocratic liberals like Spitzer, Kennedy, etc. People like you are liberal facists and, sadly, don't know it.

[moodpost]

WTF is a liberal facist (sic)?

[Aaror]

Here's an idea, how about the east and west coast liberal states leave the union, and let you smart southerners run things without us. Sure, the resumption of Jim Crow will help you in the short run, but lets see you keep your war going without New York and California.

[Oceancal]

Tit,

You must think you've won the primary. LMAO......

My way or the highway? No prob......the highway.....


OC

[ProudNeoCon]

If this is an example of Obama supporter Democrats are in trouble

[ApolloniaCreed]

I like the sound of President Obama too, but "trailer trash"? Way to win em over!!! ...I guess.

When you say things like that, you give voice to "person" who just spouted something about "liberal fascist"... Although what the person said is non-sensical, you made him/her feel like it was ok to say it...