The last week in March was, with little doubt, one of the most trying for the Clinton campaign. Her quest to gain superdelegates was blunted by Bob Casey and Bill Richardson, two major party players who have clearly recognized the writing on the wall. The core of her experience rationale was called into question when it was revealed that, on multiple occasions, Hillary had dramatically exaggerated her experience landing in war-torn Bosnia. It was also revealed that she had almost nothing to do with the SCHIP program she claimed to have created, with a number of those involved describing her accounts as straining credulity. She still hasn't released her tax returns, without explanation or justification and, she was quoted as taking credit for lobbying for the Family Medical Leave Act's passage, though it had passed the House and Senate before her husband took office.
Her insistence on making her candidacy about experience has shed light on parts of her character that might have been better left in the dark.
The tone and tenor of her campaign has also taken a surprising turn, becoming more and more a vehicle for open hypocrisy. Out of one side of her mouth, Hillary argues that all remaining contests should be completed before a decision is made and that Florida and Michigan ought to be seated for fear of their disenfranchisement. Out of the other side, she argues that the delegates that were allocated based on state primaries and caucuses should actually ignore their obligation to support the candidate to which they were pledged. She is uncomfortable disenfranchising Florida and Michigan, but perfectly content tossing out the other forty eight.
It would be silly were it not so serious.
The confluence of these events may have contributed to Hillary's slide in the national polls, a sign that perhaps, she has crossed a line that even her ardent supporters dare not follow. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll found her favorability rating had collapsed to 37%, and a recent Gallup tracking poll has her down 10 points against Obama.
It is likely, though, that this slip in polls is a preview of more to be expected. Though the facts of the race have remained relatively unchanged since March 4th, the coverage has changed dramatically. For weeks (if not months), the blogosphere has been saturated with compelling arguments explaining why Hillary cannot possibly reach the nomination. With the exception of rare stragglers like Jonathan Alter of Newsweek, very few in the mainstream media took a similar tone.
But last week that all seemed to change. Rather than inaccurately portraying the race as a virtual tie, a horserace likely to produce a photo-finish in Denver, the media has begun to confront the harder truth that the Clinton campaign is over. Like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense, the Clinton campaign doesn't yet know that it's already dead.
Her remaining rationale requires that superdelegates support her en masse, even if that means subverting the will of the voters. Thus far, there has been no indication, not even a remote one, that the superdelegates are inclined to do so. If not the superdelegates, Hillary needs pledged delegates to abandon their obligation. But pledged delegates are hand-selected by the campaigns they are pledged to, a group of true loyalists whose betrayal is truly implausible. She cannot catch up in the popular vote. She cannot catch up in the pledged delegate count. And she cannot catch up in states won.
At this point, her only hope would be for something so disastrous to happen to the Obama candidacy that superdelegates, the media, and the American people have an almost universal change of heart. Of course, any such event would likely be so dramatic as to end the Obama candidacy, forcing his withdrawal long before forcing the hands of party insiders.
The media has finally come around to this reality, and has begun to cover the campaign with accuracy for the first time since voting began. There will likely be nothing more punishing to the Clinton campaign. Until now, Clinton has been able to keep her supporters from defecting by convincing them that the race is exceptionally close and victory well within reach. But as Clinton supporters begin to realize that she cannot actually win, the tactics that she has shown comfort in deploying will become unpalatable.
After all, if she cannot win, why should Clinton supporters be comfortable with her aggressive attacks against Obama? If she cannot win, why has she been going out of her way to praise John McCain as being strong and ready and able? If she cannot win, why is she willing to take the party, and the country, through a painfully divisive convention fight, the outcome of which could be a weak and damaged nominee? If she cannot win, why is she still soliciting donors like they were an ATM on the bridge to nowhere? If she cannot win, why should they still support her?
These are difficult questions for Clinton supporters to confront and none of the answers provide good news for her campaign. The media, at this point, has all but assumed that she will win Pennsylvania and move the goalposts yet again. But in the 23 days between now and then, if this new media dialogue solidifies, Clinton might see a steep and rapid decline in her support, potentially enough to end the race in April.
Until now, the Clinton campaign has done a masterful job of depicting the campaign as a tight battle between champion and challenger, one expected to go 15 rounds without a knockout. But it seems far more like a best of seven series, one in which, after losing four games, she is inexplicably demanding to play the final three.
John McCain is the only choice that makes any sense.
She supported the war in Iraq. And this despite personal knowledge that the White House was building its "case" for WMD on the back of false evidence such as FORGED documents that couldn't have passed even the most cursory inspection by US intelligence services; that's the real heart of the Valerie Plame outing after former ambassador Joseph Wilson spoke out about this (the forgery was revealed well in advance of the vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq).
She also seems likely to support an invasion of Iran. She has remained silent on the issue of use of torture by the US government, something for which Ann Coulter applauds her, and despises McCain for denouncing. Whilst supporting neoconservative foreign policy aimed at creating a "New American Empire", she supports a clearly unconstitutional plan to criminalize the sale of "violent" video games to minors (but not the sale/rental of "violent" films or music to them), and has supported other unreasonable restrictions on our rights of freedom of speech and expression, such as an amendment criminalizing the burning of the US flag.
She was the President of her college's Young Republican chapter during the height of protest against the United States during the 1960's. Perhaps in her heart of hearts, she hasn't much changed.
The phantom Bosnian snipers of Hillary's own creation have put the final bullet into the Clinton campaign. She is now unelectable.
Yippie-kay-yay myfriends!
deny, deny deny
There are more important things than the personal political ambitions of either candidate. That 20% of each other's supporters are saying they'll vote for McCain is disgraceful. This is not about electing a "person" this year. It is about literally rescuing American from the forces of neoconservatism and the whole conservative movement. Either of these candidates would mark a departure from conservatism. Not enough for me personally, for I doubt either one has the stomach to take on the corporations. However, it will be more than enough to justify not voting for McCain. Remember, we are not electing a "personality" as President. We are electing someone who will appoint judges and Cabinet secretary's who will be broadly similar.
In any event, although I didn't support Obama, I'm rooting for him to win Pennsylvania to end this thing by voting for him so we can once again turn our fire where it belongs -- against the conservative movement who has left a trail of destruction at home and abroad thanks to George W. Bush's failed conservative policies and his delusional, incompetent Presidency.
I would only add my own personal wish that the remaining undeclared super delegates agree to a date of mass declaration at some point very soon so as to get this primary over with, and turn attention and funds where needed: against the Republicans. After all, it is not as if there is any remaining debate between Clinton and Obama over differing policy issues. At this point the super delegates must surely know who they would prefer as a candidate in the general election. So why prolong this primary when it only serves the purposes of the conservatives?
Perhaps both candidates could be asked if they would support such a solution, and agree to wholeheartedly support the other candidate should they lose the super delegate vote.
Perhaps I am overly optimistic.
I almost feel like Bill Clinton is scamming the supporters with "We going to win this" comments. Pretty much shows the Clintons integrity. I used to LOVE the Clintons until reality set in.....
Every Political site shows that Obama is 100+ ahead in the delegate count right now. There are 333 super delegates still uncommitted. There are many committed super delegates to Hillary that are slowing leaving and going over to Obama.
Without figuring in any further switches of super delegates, Obama only needs 32% of those 333 super delegates to clinch the nomination while Hillary needs 72% of those 333 super delegates.
Hillary has PA, IND and WV sewn up, but there is no guarantee that she can take the majority of delegates in these states. It is mathematically impossible for Hillary to make up enough super delegates to clinch the nomination. All she can hope for is to do the shuffle and convince the DNC that she is the better person to beat McCain.
With every day that passes, her percentages against McCain go down while Obama's goes up.
For you to continue with your delusional belief that Hillary is destined to be President is pure fairy tale.
I am not here to try to "convert" you. I am only here to straighten out your misaligned belief.
If there weren't a cost to HRC staying in the race, I'd say, sure, why not? But there are costs:
1) Every week, the Dems negatives go up while McCain's positives go up.
2) The tens of millions of dollars being spent on the primary could go to the general election. I know I don't have unlimited funds, and I'll bet there are lots of people who will feel tapped out by the time the primaries wrap up.
3) The intra-party divide increases each week; the tension is real and the bad blood won't entirely go away. The more time to heal, the better.
There are numerous precedents for wrapping up the nomination before all the states have voted. There's no precedent for the superdelegates to overturn the votes of the voters.
I have to agree....a bald faced lie that could be proved via film is more damaging than one hell, fire, and brimstone minister with a truthful opinion!!
Hillary is the left wing of the Republican party.
As a conservative, Christian Repub.....who will not vote Repub....Obama would have to my choice....
I haven't seen that she is the registered Dems choice....and certainly not all the disgruntled Repubs like me would dare vote for her....we want change......not someone who dodges imaginary bullets.
She needs to shut down and quit running the tab up.
I don't know what would happen if she stopped and the money to pay the bills dried up. She probably wouldn't get that $5 million back.