Hillary's Bruce Willis Syndrome
The last week in March was, with little doubt, one of the most trying for the Clinton campaign. Her quest to gain superdelegates was blunted by Bob Casey and Bill Richardson, two major party players who have clearly recognized the writing on the wall. The core of her experience rationale was called into question when it was revealed that, on multiple occasions, Hillary had dramatically exaggerated her experience landing in war-torn Bosnia. It was also revealed that she had almost nothing to do with the SCHIP program she claimed to have created, with a number of those involved describing her accounts as straining credulity. She still hasn't released her tax returns, without explanation or justification and, she was quoted as taking credit for lobbying for the Family Medical Leave Act's passage, though it had passed the House and Senate before her husband took office.
Her insistence on making her candidacy about experience has shed light on parts of her character that might have been better left in the dark.
The tone and tenor of her campaign has also taken a surprising turn, becoming more and more a vehicle for open hypocrisy. Out of one side of her mouth, Hillary argues that all remaining contests should be completed before a decision is made and that Florida and Michigan ought to be seated for fear of their disenfranchisement. Out of the other side, she argues that the delegates that were allocated based on state primaries and caucuses should actually ignore their obligation to support the candidate to which they were pledged. She is uncomfortable disenfranchising Florida and Michigan, but perfectly content tossing out the other forty eight.
It would be silly were it not so serious.
The confluence of these events may have contributed to Hillary's slide in the national polls, a sign that perhaps, she has crossed a line that even her ardent supporters dare not follow. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll found her favorability rating had collapsed to 37%, and a recent Gallup tracking poll has her down 10 points against Obama.
It is likely, though, that this slip in polls is a preview of more to be expected. Though the facts of the race have remained relatively unchanged since March 4th, the coverage has changed dramatically. For weeks (if not months), the blogosphere has been saturated with compelling arguments explaining why Hillary cannot possibly reach the nomination. With the exception of rare stragglers like Jonathan Alter of Newsweek, very few in the mainstream media took a similar tone.
But last week that all seemed to change. Rather than inaccurately portraying the race as a virtual tie, a horserace likely to produce a photo-finish in Denver, the media has begun to confront the harder truth that the Clinton campaign is over. Like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense, the Clinton campaign doesn't yet know that it's already dead.
Her remaining rationale requires that superdelegates support her en masse, even if that means subverting the will of the voters. Thus far, there has been no indication, not even a remote one, that the superdelegates are inclined to do so. If not the superdelegates, Hillary needs pledged delegates to abandon their obligation. But pledged delegates are hand-selected by the campaigns they are pledged to, a group of true loyalists whose betrayal is truly implausible. She cannot catch up in the popular vote. She cannot catch up in the pledged delegate count. And she cannot catch up in states won.
At this point, her only hope would be for something so disastrous to happen to the Obama candidacy that superdelegates, the media, and the American people have an almost universal change of heart. Of course, any such event would likely be so dramatic as to end the Obama candidacy, forcing his withdrawal long before forcing the hands of party insiders.
The media has finally come around to this reality, and has begun to cover the campaign with accuracy for the first time since voting began. There will likely be nothing more punishing to the Clinton campaign. Until now, Clinton has been able to keep her supporters from defecting by convincing them that the race is exceptionally close and victory well within reach. But as Clinton supporters begin to realize that she cannot actually win, the tactics that she has shown comfort in deploying will become unpalatable.
After all, if she cannot win, why should Clinton supporters be comfortable with her aggressive attacks against Obama? If she cannot win, why has she been going out of her way to praise John McCain as being strong and ready and able? If she cannot win, why is she willing to take the party, and the country, through a painfully divisive convention fight, the outcome of which could be a weak and damaged nominee? If she cannot win, why is she still soliciting donors like they were an ATM on the bridge to nowhere? If she cannot win, why should they still support her?
These are difficult questions for Clinton supporters to confront and none of the answers provide good news for her campaign. The media, at this point, has all but assumed that she will win Pennsylvania and move the goalposts yet again. But in the 23 days between now and then, if this new media dialogue solidifies, Clinton might see a steep and rapid decline in her support, potentially enough to end the race in April.
Until now, the Clinton campaign has done a masterful job of depicting the campaign as a tight battle between champion and challenger, one expected to go 15 rounds without a knockout. But it seems far more like a best of seven series, one in which, after losing four games, she is inexplicably demanding to play the final three.
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I am a supporter, and I suggest that I have thought about her chances of winning carefully and continue to support her candidacy. I'm not expecting some horrible misstep by Obama. Wright was huge. I still believe Hillary is, by far, the better prepared candidate for the job.Fall.
One thing I do like about this election is that Obama is now completely off the ridiculous and highly idealistic pedestal his supporters had him on initially. I believe it takes time for people to adjust to reality. They really did buy his BS about "YES WE CAN." At least the dawn of reasoning has begun.
I continue to support her candidacy because it's clear to me that they are VERY close. There is no clear winner yet. I support her, in part, because his tactic of trying to bully her out of the race deeply offends me. I won't allow myself to be manipulated in that way by a candidate who obviously just is afraid to let voters vote. He's blocked MI and FL. He's now trying to block the rest. The guy just is too chicken to campaign legitimately.
Finally, I support her candidacy because Hillary is the candidate of registered Democrats. We HAVE already spoken. And until the Democratic Party superdelegates hear us clearly and acknowledge that we have a voice here that should count for something, then I'll keep making sure I've got a candidate who will speak for me.
AnInCa
I got the same memo but you beat me to the post. Do I still get paid?
I got the Email too. I deleted it like I do all spam/junk mail. What a scheme, it's got a lot of normally rational people going crazy as bats. Barack Obama President of the United States of America. Get used to it. It will happen.
Both candidates blocked a reasonable outcome of FL and MI. Hillary didn't want anything that wouldn't benefit her, Barack didn't want anything that didn't help him either. That is understandable in a close race, and it is neither candidates' fault since both states went against party rule and new the consequences.
Obama has not himself said Hillary should drop out. Other Dem leaders have. He can not be held responsible for that in the mind of a reasonable adult.
Obama also hasn't said pledged delegates do not need to vote for their constituents.
What about those voters?
Should she continue? Sure. Can a clever politician find a way to run without going so negative as to support the competition above her own party? I am sure it can be done.
Yes we can! Yes we can! Yes we can!
There is nothing BS about showing people that its ok to hope for a better future than the mess we are in now.
That's right! She should stay the course! Her campaign is about to turn a corner! If she cuts and runs now, the terrorists win! She should stay in the campaign 100 years if that's what it takes!
"He's blocked MI and Fl. He's now trying to block the rest." What can you possibly mean by this?
you apparently are not familiar with AnninCA...
Wow! Terrific Post, brilliantly stated.
It seems that the Bosnia tales harmed her more than the Pastor flap harmed him. The difference in the two is downright poetic. In the pastor case, Senator Obama's was attacked based on his religious choices and, by extension, his race (as the fiery speeches rhetoric is a feature of some, though not all and not exclusively black church sermons). Senator Clinton's war story was all her own doing; no right wing hit squad or smarmy campaign was involved. It was simply a lie, he kind a ten-year-old might tell, and there were witnesses right there with her, like Andrea Mitchell who covers her today. Hillary Clinton has shown her true inner self, without any help, and it's delicious!
Great post. The series analogy was perfect. It's not that Hillary doesn't have a right to continue running in any way she sees fit. However, the entire party apparatus as well as the voters also have a right to pass judgment on that.
At the pace things are dissolving for Hillary on a number of issues, including horrible trust ratings from voters, I can envision a huge upset in Pennsylvania given the current trends. Quite frankly, I think much of the country is tired of the Clinton and Obama fight. If PA starts to reflect that national mood, Hillary could be in for a bad day.
I think anything less than a ten-point plus win in PA may knock Hillary out of the race. A loss there, of course, should end it.
HuffPost's Pick
"I think much of the country is tired of the Clinton and Obama fight."
That may well be true, but Obama supporters in states that haven't voted yet are not yet tired. Volunteers turned out in such numbers in Indiana last weekend for a voter registration drive that the Obama campaign had to rent a second storefront to accomodate them, and they still spilled out onto the sidewalk.
Hillary is staying in the race because she is a Republican mole.
Hillary says she wants universal health care. Look at what she is DOING in reality.
Well, this is another Hillary "lie" --
Hillary has not paid health care premiums for her staff since January. That is bad, BUT, under her mandatory health care plan, not paying is "illegal" !! She is now breaking the law she is proposing for the rest of us.
Will she send herself to jail now? Maybe she will end her campaign by putting herself in jail for violating her own health care plan!
Just another Hillary lie --- she does not practice what she preaches. She is screwing her own staff -- risking their health -- while she lies about wanting to create health care for all of us.
I no longer understand how the Hillary supporters can continue to support her given her totally incompetent campaign, wasting money, arrogance in not planning ahead, lies about Bosnia sniper fire, and now not providing health care for her staff --
On the other hand we have Obama who has campaigned in every state, followed the rules, created a grass roots network across the US like he did in Chicago, is very tight with his money and pays all his bills. He is thoughtful, careful, plans ahead, includes young, old, black, white, hispanic, independents, republicans. He listens carefully and speaks in coherent paragraphs that
respects his audience. Look at the talent in his team, virtually no in-fighting.
Obama will be a great president because he surrounds himself
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