McCain's Approaching Storm

When it first became clear that, despite insurmountable odds, John McCain would be the Republican nominee, most saw a number of advantages for the senator. While Obama and Clinton continued in battle, McCain would have time to court his base, develop a national campaign strategy, and appear presidential, traveling overseas whenever possible.

The first few weeks of that plan, however, have not gone accordingly. While the Democratic race continues to dominate headlines and news cycles, Senator McCain's presence in the media has been limited to five subjects: the weary road he must walk to unify the rightwing of his party behind him; the surprising difficulty with which he has mustered victories against Mike Huckabee, despite his nomination being assured; that he has a temper, often using profane language in Senate chambers; that the lobbyists running his campaign actually do business on the Straight Talk Express; and most recently, that he may have used his chairmanship to do favors for an attractive, blonde lobbyist.

For McCain, the storm is fast approaching.

The Senator has also encountered another problem, one that speaks to a steeper obstacle and magnifies the core of his weakness: despite objections from the Federal Election Commission, McCain is withdrawing from the public matching funds program.

By December of 2007, John McCain had already received a $3 million bank loan to finance his floundering campaign. When he returned to the bank for another $1 million, he needed collateral. Having already taken out a life insurance policy to secure the first loan, McCain secured the second with a pledge to accept federal matching funds, and to stay in the race long enough to receive them. Entering the matching funds system meant accepting a spending cap in exchange for public money.

But primary matching funds is truly a terrible system. The cap is woefully low - this year about $50 million - putting any candidate who accepts it at an enormous financial disadvantage. And because the primary doesn't legally end until the nominating convention, the money must last beyond beating one's opponent. It must last until September.

These considerations, however stark, were risks McCain had to take in December. Already deep in the red, McCain pledged to accept matching funds, almost immediately receiving benefits. His name was automatically placed on a number of state ballots, a process that would otherwise have required signatures.

Now that he is the presumptive nominee, he is determined to renege on his pledge to the federal government, despite having already benefited. By now he has likely exceeded the $50 million spending cap; if held to his commitment, he would be unable to spend another dollar before his nomination. Complicating matters, the FEC is requiring McCain to get approval from its six member body to withdraw, an impossibility given four vacancies on the commission - a lack of quorum with no end in sight. McCain has said he doesn't need FEC permission to exit the system, while the DNC has filed formal complaint to ensure he cannot.

Ultimately, McCain will refuse matching funds, regardless of the FEC's proclamations. Doing otherwise would be tantamount to conceding the election. But he will not do so without consequence. The coming days will wound him and those wounds will surely fester.

Senator McCain has built his narrative, brick by brick, on his honesty and integrity. But in the wake of his campaign finance flap, as that façade begins to crumble, he must confront a two front war. To independents and moderates, he will have to reestablish his credibility as an honest advocate for clean government, his stance on campaign finance growing wobbly by the minute. Doing so will no doubt infuriate those on the right, where opponents to campaign finance reform are among those most reluctant to back the Senator.

McCain's failure to unify his party during the primary will carry enormous implications, beginning here. His maverick persona, embraced by the center, is deeply despised by his base. When speaking to moderates, he will alienate the right. When speaking to the right, moderates will grow weary. For McCain, whenever an issue emerges that divides those constituencies, his hands will surely be tied. Unable to fight on two fronts, his army stretched thin, the campaign will falter, then fail.

Comments

[TheIndependenceParty]

McCain is a Trojan Horse candidate, meant by the right to attempt to win the White House and carry their hand-picked Vice Presidential candidate into his administration, ... with the very real possibility that his VP could succeed McCain during a first term. Think "Cheney", ... but with Bush at age 72 when elected to POTUS.

The Republican Party will do anything necessary to forestall FEC action. They torture prisoners don't they? In the end, Americans will not allow this flip-flopping old fogey to become the laughing stock of American History. His true colors are becoming clearer with every passing revelation about who he is and what he has done!

[tbone99]

None of it will stick - he's a white Repug male.

[FearlessFreep]

Time for a constitutional amendment to limit campaign spending.

[MsLiz]

Heck no, the good guys have money this time.

[pfc1369]

This is stulifying stuff, my friend.

If you think the voters of this country will give a nanosecond of consideration to something called "campaign financing" then you are out of touch. Big time.

[twofish]

Huh? McCain has built his reputation on reforming campaign financing.

But I agree that their eyes will glaze over if forced to confront the details. The message needs to be simplified to "McCain tried to cheat."

[Ozarks]

most recently, that he may have used his chairmanship to do favors for an attractive, blonde lobbyist....McCain secured the second with a pledge to accept federal matching funds, money....

First McCain lied about not doing favors. His own statements under oath in deposition contradict his lies and demonstrate his lack of character.
Second, there is a paper trail of bank documents showing he pledged to take public funding as collateral. So ,as "the Brown Bomber" said to Billy Conn before their second fight "He can run, but he can't hide"; The deposition and bank statements will shine a light on McCain even if he tries to run away from these facts

[ld]

Why are you so naive? The FEC is chaired by a guy from the Heritage Foundation and a co-chaired by a New York lawyer of mixed affiliation. Check their website - they pretty much hide the names of the other members. If the FEC acts against McCain - and it might, and I hope it does - it will not be for the reasons you give.

[MsLiz]

The FEC currently doesn't have enough members to constitute a quorum, so they can't conduct business. It needs four more members, two Reps, and two Dems. The Republicans are insisting on voting for the nominees as a group, rather than individually, and one of the Reps has a hold on him by Obama and another Senator. He was in the Civil Rights Division and has a bad record on voting rights. You can find the details elsewhere on HP.

[paixa3]

spared consequences by exactly who? what? where? when? and how?

keep dreaming.......

[hopeless277]

It has been my observation that the more blatantly a Republican breaks the law, the more 'street cred' he receives and the more popular he is. It has always seemed strange that the 'law and order' party actually rewards criminal activity. The FEC will do nothing to McCain. The DOJ will refuse to investigate and/or prosecute. He is a Republican as as such, operates by a different set of laws than ordinary citizens do. In the latest polls, McCain is actually beating both Clinton and Obama. If that does not tell you what kind of country this is, nothing will. Regardless, the election will never happen. Bush/Cheney have too much to lose if it does.

[DemandTruth]

Ah, nobody in the press wants to talk about Republican hypocrisy! Nobody wants to talk about possible Republican ethical violations. Nobody wants to talk about possible Republican criminal violations. Nobody wants to talk about the Republican promising to take public financing then backing out (possibly illegally). Nobody wants to talk about the Republican candidate's campaign chairman being indicted on 33 counts of fraud & other criminal activity! Not when there are much more serious and substantial issues such as Obama's clothing and elementary school to discuss!

Really. Who cares about Renzi, when you've got Rezko to rehash?

[bajaboy]

McCain should be the new poster boy for "Crooks & Liars"

[Camel54]

The problem with assuming this will be an issue for McCain is that we progressives tend to forget that the mechanism inside the brains of those on the right that makes them fall in line behind a president such as Bush, to ignore all of lies and deception, to believe any ridiculous email that comes their way is the same mechanism that will bring them together to vote against a liberal no matter what.

We progressives tend to believe that because we fight with each other so much and stand our ground on bits of minutia that everyone does. It's why we keep losing. The general public Republican has a sense of loyalty to what ever knuckleheaded nonsense comes across to them as big guns, no gays, love God and hate liberals. They will coalesce. We need to stop looking for ways they will lose and start preparing for them to come together and attack our candidate hard-core. It will happen.

[unscum]

This is so sad. What you are saying is the republicans, at least those on the far right, are mean, fascist and brainwashed. I can't imagine having another four years of a republican president, four more years of the Iraq war. But it looks like that's exactly what's going to happen regardless of whether Obama or Clinton get the nomination. I'm seriously thinking of leaving this county and moving to Canada.

[MsLiz]

Me too. Where is the weather mildest?

[Ironyfree]

Once again, Dylon Loewe is spot on. With the recent McCain muzzling of the right-wing radio host, and that host subsequent admonishing of McCain, the point is only too clear. McCain faces many challenging roads ahead.

However, the majority of the GOP is backing him, and with that the power to make things seem alright. The base will struggle and scream, but McCain will carry on.

He will make it to the general election scathed, but he will make it. After all, HRC just said she will "go all the way to the convention" regardless of what happens. With the Dems fighting it out, the GOP will have time to fix some of his problems.

The public is also very good at forgetting past transgressions in favor of a black vs white approach. Once Obama becomes the nominee those that don't like him, and those that fear him will quickly begin to hate him for the very things that make him a strong candidate now.

The question will be not can McCain survive himself, but wether the American people will care enough to not vote for him.

[BJMS]

I just want to say that Dylan Loewe is HOT! Sorry - just couldn't help myself...lol

[Cugel]

"'Conservative principles' are marketing props used by the Conservative Movement to achieve political power, not actual beliefs." -Glenn Greenwald

If you think McCain has a REAL problem with the conservative base you are forgetting that they are Sheeple, not people! They may complain, but in the end they'll do what they are told, like the authoritar­ian-lovers they are.

The votes for Huckabee right now are just their way of putting pressure on McCain to make sure he stays bought! (And they have a right to be suspicious. He has no principles to sacrifice once he's in office, so they can expect to be betrayed by him any time it's expedient for him.

For now they grumble, but what are they going to do? Sit out the election? Vote for a Obama?

He's BLAAAAAAACK! That's all they need to know. He'll open the borders and let illegal immigrants rape their daughters. They'll turn out in droves. Meanwhile, by election day, all the fundies will have been given their marching orders.

I've always thought that the right's obsession with attacking McCain was a tempest in a tea-pot and now we're seeing how quickly they rally to him once he's the nominee. "Ooooh! The LIBERAL N.Y. Times criticized him! Forget everything I said about how McCain will give AMNESTY to ILLEGALS!"

[stupidme]

McCain needs to be hammered on this, and big time. Given that that the MSM is going to give McCain a pass on this, Dem operatives need to be out there slamming him on this. Never mind anything else right now. This should be talking point #1, 2 and 3. Any and every detail needs to be harped on. The Bull Shit Express needs to be put on the defensive.