On an Obama/Clinton Ticket: A Response to Andrew Sullivan
On Sunday, Andrew Sullivan published a story arguing that when Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he should give serious consideration to selecting Hillary Clinton as his running mate. The argument itself is not new, but that it is coming from Sullivan, one of Obama's most eloquent and ardent advocates, is certainly worth exploring.
The past weeks have been difficult for Obama, to be sure. In addition to a number of crises boiling over, from Reverend Wright to comments about small town bitterness, Obama has been the subject of a new media narrative, one that suggests he will be unable to win working class voters in the fall. That has been complicated by the relentless depiction of Obama by the Clinton camp as being unelectable in the fall, and by indications that the length of the primary has begun to permanently divide the Democratic Party. In such an environment, choosing Hillary as his running mate seems like it might be the easiest way for Obama to overcome these obstacles, turning the ticket into what Sullivan describes as "unstoppable almost overnight."
Of course, many, if not most of Obama's supporters recoil at the notion. Throughout the campaign, Hillary has proven herself to be the worst of the kind of politics Obama is seeking to end. She has clearly chosen personal ambition over party, and dishonesty over candor. She has, on numerous occasions, praised John McCain while deriding Obama, and still refuses to apologize for her Iraq war vote. The politician she turned out to be is so divergent from what the core of the Democratic party would expect, that despite starting with the greatest political brand in Democratic politics, a popular former president as her chief surrogate, and a seemingly endless war chest, she has been denied the nomination.
Yet the problem with Hillary as vice president is not so much that she flies in the face of Obama's purpose - he no doubt could eloquently bring her into the fold, as part of a reconciliation that is distinctly Obama. It is rather that Obama would have to give up so much in his presidency in exchange for a choice that seems, at this point, completely unnecessary. The Clinton machine that Obama has so deftly dismantled would find new life with Hillary in the White House. Bill, who views Obama as the chief architect of the undoing of the Clinton legacy, would no doubt wield more influence than he would deserve or Obama would prefer. The opportunity for Bill and Hillary to meddle will be far greater if they are given the formal authority of the vice presidency. That the spotlight would have to be shared with those kind of people - and that kind of politics - is something to which Obama should be understandably averse.
Decisions about a vice president need to be undertaken with an eye toward November and beyond. And though many, including Sullivan, would argue that they are looking to November when suggesting Clinton, it is far more likely that they are being clouded by the events of yesterday, today, and tomorrow. There was a time, for example, when Mike Huckabee seemed a necessary choice for John McCain as his running mate, given McCain's problems with the Republican base, especially among evangelicals. Not two months later, McCain's base is clearly in line, and Mike Huckabee seems more suited for a variety show than the vice presidency.
Hillary too, will likely enjoy a similar fate. By June 3rd, Obama will have secured the nomination. The wounds that lay open from his epic war with Clinton can be healed as easily with an eloquent speech praising her as with an eloquent moment appointing her. Once he has honored her for her service, her strength and tenacity, he will have at least two months before he needs to select a running mate. At least sixty news cycles will go by with Hillary well out of the spotlight. And in that period of time, we are likely to see the Democratic Party unify.
For all the talk of Obama's inability to connect to working class voters, it appears that it is white women, more than any other group that have stayed loyal to Clinton, thus preventing Obama from "closing the deal." White women made up 47% of the electorate in Pennsylvania, and as with every other state since Iowa, they stood with Hillary by dramatic margins. Could it be that white women are voting against Obama? Perhaps. But it seems far more likely that they are voting with Hillary, the greatest chance they've ever had for a woman in the White House.
With Hillary out of the race, white women - especially unmarried women - are sure to line up behind Obama. The 54 million unmarried women in America are as big a portion of the Democratic base as evangelicals are to Republicans. That they would choose McCain over Obama is simply unthinkable.
After a long two months of reframing and recalculating, Obama will be able to make a decision about his vice president based on a number of considerations, from the sharing of political philosophy, to possible geographic electoral advantages, to the anchoring of any perceived weaknesses. His decision will be made in July or August, not on the basis of the political calculus of April and May, but with an eye toward November.
By then, Hillary Clinton's place on the short-list will be entirely for show.
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You are right, Sullivan was wrong.
The Clintons would be a terrible choice for Obama's Vice President(s). He will do well to steer clear.
Here's what's going to happen if Obama is the nominee. He will be pressured to offer the VP spot to Hillary in order to achieve party unity. Hillary will turn him down. One, because she's too arrogant to ever play second fiddle to anyone. Two, because she expects Obama to lose to McCain paving the way for her to run in 2012. And three, if Obama does become President, Hillary will be in line to become Majority Leader and will have a much bigger say on what kind of legislation President Obama can pass. But you're right about white females voting for Clinton. It's hard for them to let go of their dream of seeing a female President. But Obama can remedy this in other way besides having Hillary as his VP. There are two white female governors, both supporters of Obama, that he could choose. One from Kansas, the other from Arizona. Having a governor as the VP gives the ticket executive experience and having the governor from Arizona helps Obama geographically. It's also McCain's home state. Lastly, neither of these governors has unfavorable ratings anywhere near as high as Hillary. And if he is elected, his VP will become the presumptive nominee for 2016. And Hillary will be forgotten.
And Hillary will be forgotten.
From your lips...
No way.
Hillary is the complete opposite of Barack. She would undermine him constantly, when she wasn't busy plotting some way to take him out. (Mysterious death, anyone?) It's going to be dangerous enough for Barack as the first black President. No need to invite someone into the Oval Office who would not hesitate to knock him off to get the Presidency. She's openly talking of stealing the nomination. Why wouldn't she steal the Presidency too. (If she were the nominee, I'd advise McCain to get a food taster.)
I think the days of assassinations and "mysterious deaths" are mostly over. The Republicans have learned that character assassination works far better than just plain assassination. A side benefit of character assassination is that it leaves no martyr behind like it did with JFK. The machine doesn't want to make that mistake again.
Tell that to Senator Wellstone.
Bullets trump ballots. That lesson has not been lost on me. Fascists have never hesitated to kill their enemies. I would fear for Obama's life from the moment the Clinton's had the VP slot nailed down. I think he'd be dead now if it weren't obvious that this is the one way the Clintons can eliminate the competition.
And, by the way, I never thought of the Clinton years as halcyon. Bill's tomcatting cost us control of Congress and gave us the rise of neocon fascism. He is no more a "Democrat" than Joe Leiberman.
This whole "unity ticket" line is ridiculous, and was long ago rendered to cliche. Why would anyone want to run with Senator Clinton's, of whom over half the population views negatively?
Problem is, Clinton is not really a Democrat - she is what her voters want her to be... and at this point, she has discovered that her core base is the so-called "Reagan Democrats" who are in fact misnamed and should more appropriately called the "Clinton Republicans" since these are the people that voted for Reagan twice, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. twice. That to me is a Republican with a soft spot for Clintons and that is what keeps HRC going.
If Obama picks HRC, he might was well pick someone like Ron Paul just to add more wackiness to this campaign. In other words, it won't happen. It doesn't make sense to happen.
Excellent post.
She and Bill are going Independent if she loses this primary. Believe me, she is vindictive enough. Look at Lieberman. He lost in NY and then went to the Independent Party and suckered his people to vote for him...Wher
I believe he lost in Connecticut. He was running against Lamont.
She might go indi but most indi's do not want her and they are the only ones could contribute $ to her already broke campaign. She can talk, stomp her feet, hold her breath and nothing will happen.
with her obliterate comment Women are waking up; the visions of draft and seeing ones children going off to war is quite sobering; even most abused women leave for good when the abuse is focused on the kids.
Dems missed there change to call this early on giving the legacy of the clintons more respect than the clintons themselve give to anyone. Then they were afraid of getting the massive block of women upset - now that women are jumping ship, she is left with only the angry voter that lets limbuagh tell them what to do and he will soon tell them McCain is the magic elixir.
NOOOOOOOOO
Very thoughtful but misguided. Her as VP? With all the people that end up dead around the Clintons, that would be unwise.
Besides, we would be better served with Tim Kaine or Jim Webb, putting Virginia into play, or Kathleen Sebellius from Kansas. Even Evan Bayh would be better, and that's going far.
Anyone with Hillary Clinton as VP would have to spend every second of two whole terms watching their back.
Hillary Clinton as Vice-President: Obama's Migraine Headache.
Pass.
Obama/Wright '08
Ayres can trample on an American flag at Barry's inauguration.
An Obama-Clinton ticket would unquestionably be a nightmare for anyone who considers her/himself progressive. The GOP would likely be almost as happy to have her as running mate as nominee so they can whup her ass with their 527 ads a la Swift Boat Veterans. If Obama somehow decides to sacrifice his chance to defeat McCain by choosing Clinton, he may as well commit hari-kiri, which would be horrific. Sullivan's notion, with all due respect, makes me want to vomit through my nostrils. I appreciate the theoretical pragmatism of his proposal, but the myth that Obama can't attract working-class Reagan Democrats to his side is directly results from the closet-Rep
Sorry to say, with Clinton as VP, Obama would have to LITERALLY watch his back.
The Clintons have no Moral compass and would "Fosterize" Obama.
And if they didn't have a hand in it and Obama was unfortunately assassinated, it would pretty much fall on the Clinton's shoulders anyway.
Obama needs to stay the hell away from the Clintons at all costs.
Hillary doesn't need to be anywhere near the presidency. She can't be trusted and will prbably sabotage the campaign so she can run for no_1 in 2012. Plus she seems like she'll be nothing more than a lot of headache. Obama's campaign style and hillary's are miles apart.
Quite frankly, we'd prefer she gives her concession speech, expresses support for Barack and dissapear from the scene. We do not want her campaigning "her life out" for barack. That implies the nuclear option and that will revolt his supporters
Best choice: Kathleen Sebelius, Governor of Kansas. She solidifies support of women who for some reason thought Hillary was their last hope. She has real executive experience. She is a supporter of Obama. And she would help Dems win traditionally red states like Kansas and help bring MO back. And it would demonstrate to remaining supers that Obama is the unifier. The other possibility is Napolitano. I would have Richardson as Sec of State and Edwards as Sec of Labor.
Finally a full-length article refuting Andrew Sullivan's article regarding Obama's running mate! Thank you!
I'd rather he has the 82-year old grandmother for VP than (grandchildless) Grandma Hillary.
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