Pro and Condoleezza: McCain's VP Search

McCain is about to enter the general election race without having locked up his base and with no guarantees among moderate voters. In such a perilous position, his choice for vice president could make or break his candidacy. On that front, he faces quite the dilemma.

Generally, candidates look to a series of factors when considering a potential vice presidential pick, usually settling on someone who has at least some of those traits.

McCain may feel compelled to select a running mate who provides ideological balance to the ticket. Viewed by many in his party as too moderate, he might consider someone with unimpeachable conservative credentials, someone who could help shore up the Republican base.

At the same time, much of the reason for McCain's success is his popularity with moderate swing voters, many of whom may be turned off by an ultra-conservative selection. With the allure of Obama threatening to encroach on a broad section of McCain's moderate base, can McCain really afford to alienate the center?

To that end, McCain may consider choosing a running mate who reinforces his message: a clean government conservative with a strong military background. Such a decision would go a long way toward solidifying his persona as the honest maverick, but might motivate many on the right to stay home in November. After all, accepting that McCain is a different kind of Republican is far different than accepting that McCain is going to build a different kind of Republican Party. The right is unlikely to approve of a McCain-like heir to the throne.

McCain must also concern himself with electoral geography. With Democrats turning out in staggering numbers nationwide, and with an economy in recession, an unpopular war, and an unpopular president, the quest for 270 electoral votes will be fraught with obstacles. If the 2004 electoral map is used as a starting point, there are almost no blue states that are likely to turn red. McCain may consider Pennsylvania and Michigan, but both states have voted for Democrats in the previous two elections, and continue to trend that way. It appears that McCain's only path to victory involves holding on to every state won by Bush. With Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida in play, such a strategy will prove unbelievably tenuous.

McCain may consider using his running mate to move a swing state back into the Republican column -- perhaps a popular statewide official from Florida, Virginia, or Missouri. But if geography is his only consideration, McCain will still bump up against a juggernaut of Obama momentum. In addition to being about hope, change, and political realignment, Obama's campaign is about history. For McCain to slow him, he must also consider trying to meet Obama's moment, selecting a running mate with just as much historical meaning. A woman, Latino, or African American would suffice, and in any combination among them.

Meeting the needs of his candidacy will be difficult, given that what is necessary is nearly impossible to find. With a small (and diminishing) number of elected female Republicans, and even fewer minority GOP, McCain may be in search of a running mate that simply doesn't exist.

And even if he finds one somehow, he is faced with another grim reality. In a race where Barack Obama will be heavily favored, will the person offered the number two slot accept? No politician has ever been named the vice presidential nominee, lost, and then later become president. In 1972, so many party insiders were convinced that George McGovern would lose the general election, that a number of top brass politicians turned down the vice presidency. McGovern was left with Thomas Eagleton, who soon became the first person to remove his name from a presidential ticket, after it was revealed he had suffered from mental illness. For McCain, this must be an uncomfortable precedent.

Though McCain claims not to have begun searching, the media is already floating some names: Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, and even Condoleezza Rice. Yet each of these candidates fails to satisfy at least one of McCain's needs. Mark Sanford comes from a safe Republican state. Kay Bailey Hutchinson doesn't deliver on electoral math and is more interested in running for Governor in 2010 than being Vice President. Governor Huckabee might seem an obvious choice to some, but while he may help bring evangelicals on board, he does nothing to woo economic conservatives.

Charlie Crist might seem a good choice; he is extraordinarily popular in Florida. But would a man who will likely be the frontrunner in the next GOP primary really risk his political career on McCain's faltering campaign? And even if he were willing, would he really be helpful as the number two? He is, after all, just another old white man, but with a South Beach tan that will play poorly in the Midwest.

Of all the choices, none may be as interesting as Condoleezza Rice. As a black woman, she brings a substantial sense of history to the race. On paper she may even seem to accomplish the impossible ideologically, an obvious darling of the right, but with the tone and temperament of a moderate. Certainly McCain would see these qualities as advantages.

But more so than any other viable choice, Condoleezza Rice would be fatal to the McCain campaign. Barack Obama's strongest argument against McCain, and the message he will proceed with through November, is that, though Bush will not be on the ballot in November, his policies will live on in a McCain presidency. If McCain were to select Bush's single closest adviser as his running mate, a woman who was the architect not only of the Iraq War, but of its searing mismanagement, he would be validating all that Democrats and Independents fear. In doing so, he would be digging his political grave.

There are many who will argue that, while McCain may face challenges with his running mate selection, ultimately, voters do not decide how to vote based on the vice presidential nominee. Generally, that is a true statement, but with McCain, that is unlikely to be the case. At 71 years old -- soon to be 72 -- McCain would be the oldest man ever elected president. Many are already speculating that he would only seek a single term in the White House. That speculation, whether accurate or not, will fuel the idea that his vice presidential choice is uniquely important. McCain is essentially choosing the 2012 nominee.

With scant options and an uphill climb, McCain may be telling the truth when he says he hasn't begun to consider running mate choices. Perhaps, he can't stomach the thought.

Comments

[section9]

One of the reasons Huffpo is fun to read is to watch Dems talk to each other in their own in-Universe.

The one in which Condi Rice is both evil and incompetent.

Condi Rice is extremely popular in the Republican rank and file. The only Republicans who don't like her are the Neocons and the Likudniks. McCain's victory has pretty much defanged them. The crowd over at the National Review and the American Spectator all endorsed Romney. They don't like Condi either, but they made the mistake of hating McCain too much. There's such a thing as backing the wrong horse. A VP's job is to get round the country and get out the rank and file. Other than that, VP's don't have too much of an effect on the ticket. However, Condi will help McCain in one vital way.

McCain is running a counterintuitive campaign. He has discerned, and wisely so, that Obama will run on "defeatisme". In contrast, McCain will run on Victory, Strength, and Honor. Victory beats Defeat everytime, something Democrats haven't gotten since Harry Truman left town. Condi will be fine as someone that helps McCain advocate Victory against the McClellanism of the Democrats.

Condi will be a fine Vice-Presidential candidate, the fevered propaganda of the left wing blogosphere notwithstanding. People vote for the top of the ticket, and in that respect, John McCain will do fine.

[Crowhaul]

McCain won't be that stupid as to choose Condie as his running mate. America has seen what happens when they put an Oil Man into the White House. And Condoleeza is just another Oil Man (just ask Chevron, who named one of their tankers after her).

[shanghaislim]

As some pundits have mentioned and the NAME that causes the most trouble and worry to us democrats is.....

....General Colin Powell?

I am surprised Dylan, you did not mention him? (He says "no" but the GOP hierarchy might be able to convince him?)

[WilliePilgrim]

Does nobody think that he'll ask Jeb? Booo!

[PaleMail]

McCain with visions of a Hundred Years War and Rice with visions of nuclear mushroom clouds. A hot and heavy pair of warriors straight from the Twilight Zone.

[Silpat]

This is a moot point.

Condi is not interested!!!!!

[poppycock]

I understand he has asked Dick Cheney to find him a running mate!

We're fucked

[PaleMail]

And Cheney after scouring the field will come up with the perfect VP candidate, Himself! (No reason McCain won't fall for it, he's as dumb as the FratBoy).

[zigzag1]

Vicki Iseman for VP. Perhaps then the press will look into her affair with McCrazy. She can explain how her career path went from secretary to high paid lobbyist in 2 years.
Maybe then thousands of press can form in front of her home and we can hear about the affair 24 hours a day on every network.

[marignymitch]

Condi is not his type. He likes severe blondes.

[unitron]

"Condi is not his type. He likes severe blondes."

Vice-President Coulter?

Or that telecom lobbyist from the NYT story?

[shanghaislim]

OK that's Freakin Funny! (Nice)

[niikeb]

If McCain picks that bitch Im out of the Republican party. Their slogan. Warmongers do it with lobbyists. But seriously Hillery and Obama are sounding more like Ronald Reagan then Bush. Anti NAFTA (which is NOT free trade) Remember RR saved Harley Davidson in the 1980s. Controlled spending was a big RR one and thats now a democratic platform. Avoiding sending our troops to war and using strong diplomacy was a big RR legacy(Granada and Lebanon vs Iraq). Just Give up abortion support and your a 1980s Republican. I joke but its pretty scary. Mr. High spend warmongering spying seems like a weird mix of Nixon and Johnson.

[iswearington]

it doesn't matter who charlie chaplin...er..er..i mean mccain picks(the resemblance is astounding). he is a mentally and physically sick doddering old man on geriatric meds.when it was discovered that thomas eagleton ...george mcgoverns VP pick had mccains conditions..george mcgovern was wiped out in his presidential bid and lost in a landslide . it has been all downhill for this country since.no one would go out under the bridges in citys across this ungrateful nation and pick one of those veterans living and sleeping under those bridges...with the same experience and conditions chaplin..er i mean mccain has and run him for president or anything.if i had told any employer when i came back from vietnam that i had been a POW in the hanoi hilton and was tortured every day for 5 years they would never have hired me.common sense would have told them that i was too fucked up to even be around other people.cha­plins..er.­.i mean mccains explosive hair trigger temper and his complete disregard for what other people think should disqualify him...just like it would me...or anyone else.the standard thomas eagleton DAV...DMS3 diagnosis for shell-shocked former POWs is: devolving catatonic shutdown..­.excaserba­ted by severe regressive depressive neurosis complicated by acute post traumatic stress. this condition requires up to 4 psycotropic medications to manage.if the veteran is not taking those meds...then the 4 brain chemicals that regulate serotonim uptake..are not regulating seratonim uptake...and potentially...all hell could break lose at any time.why? the three parts of the brain in young soldiers under combat stress that regulate seratonim uptake atropy and never develop normally. that means medications for life.whether on...or off meds...charlie chaplin..oops..i mean john mccain does not belong in the whitehouse.

[marignymitch]

Hey. Our first PTSD president would be exciting to watch (from the protection of our bomb shelters), at the very least.

And what's your problem with doddering, old, sick white guys? Republicans installed one in the White House in the '80s and he's their icon.

[MsLiz]

Paragraphs and capital letters at the appropriate places are your friends. I couldn't read your post.

[SonnyBono]

Other than the fact that I couldn't care less who McCain wants to run as his vice-presidential candidate - someone please tell me what the hell, Condoleezza Rice has accomplished?

She was provost at Stanford - faculty issued "no confidence" vote.

She tutored W on foreign affairs - we know how that turned out.

She is an "expert" on Russia - news flash, the Cold War is back thanks to her and her boy, W.

She was National Security Advisor that didn't have the time to read a memo that said something about Bin Laden determined to attack somebody, somewhere.

She sat back and let the Bush gang shove Colin Powell over the side after he used up his creditability with the UN and the rest of the world. She has no positive accomplishments to speak of in her current position - well, she did stall a cease fire last year so more Lebanese civilians could be killed by US supplied cluster bombs.

She likes boots and probably kitties - reasons enough, sign her up, Senator McCain.

[crushinator]

She did have an oil tanker named after her. I guess that's an accomplishment depending on your viewpoint.

Ooh...she also probably "accomplished" some Ferragamo shoe shopping while people were drowning in New Orleans until someone spotted her and publicly embarrassed her.

Give me a minute...I'm sure I can think of more...

[MsLiz]

Remember the old line about riding two buses with one token? Condi may actually get you three buses.

[Citizen54]

Again, she had a Chevron oil tanker named after her. What more do you want?

[Kungfublood]

Well it might look like that , if you over look the fact that he is followed around by a Joe Lieberman look alike with decidedly gollum like characteristics.

[MsLiz]

Lieberman's acceptance speech: My precious . . . LOL!

[SamThornton]

The only way Sen. McCain could attain "ideological balance" with a VP selection would be by selecting Karl Marx and he's unavailable, I understand.

[jhamm1]

Shhhhh!!

You're absolutely right. And for that reason, I hope to God that McCain never reads this blog, for it might give him a few ideas.