McCain is about to enter the general election race without having locked up his base and with no guarantees among moderate voters. In such a perilous position, his choice for vice president could make or break his candidacy. On that front, he faces quite the dilemma.
Generally, candidates look to a series of factors when considering a potential vice presidential pick, usually settling on someone who has at least some of those traits.
McCain may feel compelled to select a running mate who provides ideological balance to the ticket. Viewed by many in his party as too moderate, he might consider someone with unimpeachable conservative credentials, someone who could help shore up the Republican base.
At the same time, much of the reason for McCain's success is his popularity with moderate swing voters, many of whom may be turned off by an ultra-conservative selection. With the allure of Obama threatening to encroach on a broad section of McCain's moderate base, can McCain really afford to alienate the center?
To that end, McCain may consider choosing a running mate who reinforces his message: a clean government conservative with a strong military background. Such a decision would go a long way toward solidifying his persona as the honest maverick, but might motivate many on the right to stay home in November. After all, accepting that McCain is a different kind of Republican is far different than accepting that McCain is going to build a different kind of Republican Party. The right is unlikely to approve of a McCain-like heir to the throne.
McCain must also concern himself with electoral geography. With Democrats turning out in staggering numbers nationwide, and with an economy in recession, an unpopular war, and an unpopular president, the quest for 270 electoral votes will be fraught with obstacles. If the 2004 electoral map is used as a starting point, there are almost no blue states that are likely to turn red. McCain may consider Pennsylvania and Michigan, but both states have voted for Democrats in the previous two elections, and continue to trend that way. It appears that McCain's only path to victory involves holding on to every state won by Bush. With Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida in play, such a strategy will prove unbelievably tenuous.
McCain may consider using his running mate to move a swing state back into the Republican column -- perhaps a popular statewide official from Florida, Virginia, or Missouri. But if geography is his only consideration, McCain will still bump up against a juggernaut of Obama momentum. In addition to being about hope, change, and political realignment, Obama's campaign is about history. For McCain to slow him, he must also consider trying to meet Obama's moment, selecting a running mate with just as much historical meaning. A woman, Latino, or African American would suffice, and in any combination among them.
Meeting the needs of his candidacy will be difficult, given that what is necessary is nearly impossible to find. With a small (and diminishing) number of elected female Republicans, and even fewer minority GOP, McCain may be in search of a running mate that simply doesn't exist.
And even if he finds one somehow, he is faced with another grim reality. In a race where Barack Obama will be heavily favored, will the person offered the number two slot accept? No politician has ever been named the vice presidential nominee, lost, and then later become president. In 1972, so many party insiders were convinced that George McGovern would lose the general election, that a number of top brass politicians turned down the vice presidency. McGovern was left with Thomas Eagleton, who soon became the first person to remove his name from a presidential ticket, after it was revealed he had suffered from mental illness. For McCain, this must be an uncomfortable precedent.
Though McCain claims not to have begun searching, the media is already floating some names: Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, and even Condoleezza Rice. Yet each of these candidates fails to satisfy at least one of McCain's needs. Mark Sanford comes from a safe Republican state. Kay Bailey Hutchinson doesn't deliver on electoral math and is more interested in running for Governor in 2010 than being Vice President. Governor Huckabee might seem an obvious choice to some, but while he may help bring evangelicals on board, he does nothing to woo economic conservatives.
Charlie Crist might seem a good choice; he is extraordinarily popular in Florida. But would a man who will likely be the frontrunner in the next GOP primary really risk his political career on McCain's faltering campaign? And even if he were willing, would he really be helpful as the number two? He is, after all, just another old white man, but with a South Beach tan that will play poorly in the Midwest.
Of all the choices, none may be as interesting as Condoleezza Rice. As a black woman, she brings a substantial sense of history to the race. On paper she may even seem to accomplish the impossible ideologically, an obvious darling of the right, but with the tone and temperament of a moderate. Certainly McCain would see these qualities as advantages.
But more so than any other viable choice, Condoleezza Rice would be fatal to the McCain campaign. Barack Obama's strongest argument against McCain, and the message he will proceed with through November, is that, though Bush will not be on the ballot in November, his policies will live on in a McCain presidency. If McCain were to select Bush's single closest adviser as his running mate, a woman who was the architect not only of the Iraq War, but of its searing mismanagement, he would be validating all that Democrats and Independents fear. In doing so, he would be digging his political grave.
There are many who will argue that, while McCain may face challenges with his running mate selection, ultimately, voters do not decide how to vote based on the vice presidential nominee. Generally, that is a true statement, but with McCain, that is unlikely to be the case. At 71 years old -- soon to be 72 -- McCain would be the oldest man ever elected president. Many are already speculating that he would only seek a single term in the White House. That speculation, whether accurate or not, will fuel the idea that his vice presidential choice is uniquely important. McCain is essentially choosing the 2012 nominee.
With scant options and an uphill climb, McCain may be telling the truth when he says he hasn't begun to consider running mate choices. Perhaps, he can't stomach the thought.
