The Bush Effect

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has some surprising numbers about the Republican Party, some of which have been described by other commentators as paradoxical. President Bush's approval numbers continue to remain in the low 30s, while 49% view the Republican Party unfavorably. A whopping 43% believe they are worse off than they were four years ago, a truly shocking number when one considers how utterly bleak the state of the nation was four years ago. 76% of voters want the next president to pursue an approach other than that of President Bush, and in a generic match-up, the Democratic nominee beats the Republican nominee in a thirteen point landslide.

Yet when John McCain is paired against Hillary Clinton, he only loses by two points, and when pitted against Obama, he only loses by three. If voters are fed up with the Republican Party and George W. Bush, and if they are eager for a Democrat to take over, why is John McCain's margin so close?

One possible argument, of course, is that McCain is actually the most electable Republican in his party. It may be, as many have suggested, that for all of the problems Republicans faced during their nomination fight, they may have serendipitously nominated their strongest possible candidate. But on closer inspection, these numbers help underscore the potential for a significant collapse in McCain's support come November.

The American people have yet to associate John McCain with George W. Bush. If they thought the two were one in the same, McCain's support would undoubtedly plummet. But John McCain has cultivated a narrative that paints him as a maverick, a politician willing to disagree with the president when required. Combined with the well-documented discomfort the two have felt for each other since their 2000 campaign, McCain has, at least to some extent, a credible rationale for pointing out differences.

Voters have also apparently disassociated McCain from the Republican Party. Despite his otherwise conservative record, McCain has confronted his own party on issues from earmarks to immigration - a reality only further validated by the right's obvious discomfort with their nominee. In fact, the media portrayal of McCain as an anti-Republican has been so universal that 44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 52% of Republicans would have preferred another nominee.

In the interim, that might sound like encouraging news to the McCain campaign. But underneath the numbers, the true weakness of the McCain candidacy comes to light. After all, McCain has yet to experience the financial arm of the Obama campaign in full force, using every opportunity to paint a McCain presidency as nothing more than a third Bush term. Already, Obama previews the campaign to come with his stump speech, arguing that, though Bush will not be on the November ballot, his policies certainly will.

It is also nearly impossible that McCain will spend nine months as the leader of his party without being painted as a serious member. Having done such a poor job of unifying his base during the primary season, McCain is already finding himself fighting a two-front war, forced to advocate pet Republican policies at a volume too loud for the general election. The more he swears to be a genuine Republican, the more the voters will begin to believe him.

The space McCain has placed between himself, his party, and the president will never appear quite as distant as it does today. On the other side of a billion dollar general election, voters will no doubt view him as a conservative Republican, closely aligned with Bush's policies and ideology.

With 76% of the voters hoping for a president who takes a different approach than Bush, that reality should give John McCain some serious pause.

Comments

[ME08]

Maybe because the Obamabots, with their endless bitching, carping and complaining, have made people run as fast as they can from the Dems...tho­ught they could it have it locked up by winning non-democratic caucuses, but Hillary showed them it ain't gonna happen. Not in any way, shape or form...so the Obamabots have a choice: shut up, sit down, or hand the election over to McCain...i­t's that simple...

[Indedave]

IMHO McCain's viability boils down to two words: "race" and "gender."

[Teritt]

I believe there are two reasons the margin between the candidates is so close.
(1) Who are the people being polled? I mean, if they were polling mainly Republicans, wouldn't that explain why 51% view themselves favorably?
(2) There are folks that would never vote for Hillary, and there are other folks that would never vote for a man of color...I'­m not saying ALL folks, but we all know that those people are out there. I think that (somewhat) explains McCain's 'popularity'.

[apcalc]

Your sentence gives you away Teritt:

"There are folks that would never vote for Hillary, and there are other folks that would never vote for a man of color..."

I guess it doesn't occur to you that color has nothing to do with it........­that maybe they just don't like Barack?

[springsm]

I believe the major reason that "myfriends" McCain does so well is that the Media does not go after him, instead he is still called a "war hero"...an­d that just is not true. He survived POW horrors, but so did many others...t­hen he decided to marry Helmsly to get into politics and be financed. I do believe he has been civil and maybe even rational in Congress..­but he has faults and he doesn't get called on them. You love to flay HRC..and so who wouldn't think McCain was a choice. He has however, in the past couple of years voted 95% with Bush...and that includes torture..w­hich he likes to tout as "we don't and shouldn't do torture", also. If you want a dumb warhawk tho..ya got "myfriends". But first why don't we analyze his every move, non move, temper tantrum, statement, etc.....to the nth degree, write about them for weeks, call him names, and the male "shill" to his name and then think about it. I am not a Clinton fan nor a Obama fan, but I think the media has manipulated the essence of "campaign" right out of it. The know who they want to run and who they want to win and that has been their job for far too long. Manipulate and control.

[TheOtherMaven]

There's a lovely paradigm just waiting for use - and, unfortunately, only one of the Democratic candidates can use it: "The Politics of Fear vs. the Politics of Hope".

Hillary can't touch it, because she has sold out to the Politics of Fear.

Obama can pick it up and run with it - easily. I originally had my doubts that he could ever be elected President in this still overtly racist country, but he's beginning to make me eat my thoughts.

[RButler]

Is it racist for white voters to not vote for a black candidate because that candidate plays the race card himself? That may be what is happening. Is it racist for white people to be offended and to denounce people like Farrakhan and Rev. Wright?

[RButler]

To borrow from Seinfeld, Obama's campaign is a 'show about nothing'. "Change"? Isn't that what panhandlers say?

[timothe]

There's two main reasons to explain why McCain can be tied to Bush yet still win the presidency.

1. Many of the Republicans who are unhappy with Bush are unhappy with him because of issues other than the Iraq war. Spending was out of control under Bush and he didn't change his tune on spending until the Democrats won Congress. Bush didn't govern as a conservative and many Republicans feel betrayed by him.

2. The Democratic candidates pandered too far left. The DailyKos and Moveon.org whack jobs are not the mainstream of the Democratic party. Again, pointing back to the 2006 elections, it was conservative Democrats.­..the Blue Dogs, that turned Congress to the Democratic party. Both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama started left and went further left to cater to the boisterous fringe of the party.

[dora rice]

McCaine or Obama.....­.guess what?

[therealredstateblues]

The heck it was bluedogs. The majority of incoming freshmen came in with an antiwar, economic fairnes and fair trade platform.

[Kungfublood]

Baa Beep Baaa Beep says the good robot sheep!

[jstock]

Lieberman couldn't have framed it any better, timothe. You've bought into the neocon/neolib narrative of what constitutes "the middle." Blue Dogs do not represent the middle of the electorate. If we look at polling on the most important issues, a majority of voters are actually to the left of Hillary and Obama. I think this is the only fair metric to use.

McCain would bring us more wars and more debt. Plus his Supreme Court appointees would set us all back for decades. We cannot afford this so-called maverick anywhere near the WH.

[timothe]

I'm not middle at all. I'm pretty far right, but I saw qualities in folks like Claire McCaskill and Harold Ford Jr. that I really liked. And I'm so honked off at the GOP primary that I could easily vote for a conservative Democrat. But there are none. Not even close.

So I'll probably vote with my nose held tightly for McCain. Sorry.

[gsuescum]

I don't agree with #2. Americans are really all that "conservat­ive." Obama and Clinton are still too far right for most people yet they don't realize it.

[erfavc]

It's a poll. If polls can be wrong the night before a primary ... what about 8 months out? I don't think any of what you are talking about in relation to polling makes much sense. McCain is a neocon that wants to bi-polarize the world again and start a new Cold War with his "League of Democracies"

read for yourself ... he will be exposed to his independent supports for the right-wing neocon he is.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20071101faessay86602/john-mccain/an-enduring-peace-built-on-freedom.html

[ImmanuelKant]

"What concerns me.." is the attitude that as a population we are not to be "educated" to think but go to a junior college to learn how to work.

[rwe]

Sorry guys , the most recent POLL gave Pres Bush a 32% ,, 60 above congress and congress is percieved as democrat..­. and now you got Jeremiah

[leftbehind2000]

I've seen this argument a lot, and I'm not entirely certain it's on the mark. Here's why:

If someone asked me if I was happy with the overall progress of the current Congress, I would have to give an emphatic "no." However, I am a Democrat, and would continue to support Democrats - I would just vote out the Harry Reids in favor of others who I believe would do a better job.

In other words, I believe in the stated objectives of this Congress. Yet I am totally dissatisfied with its lack of backbone, consistency and follow-through. And from what I've read and heard from others, I know I'm not alone in this feeling.

I also disapprove of the Bush administration. But this is more than dissatisfaction in its performance - it is a repudiation of action, ideology, personality - everything to do with Bush and his cadre. I reject this administration's stated objectives, its lack of candor and transparen­cy...prett­y much everything about it.

To me this is an extremely important distinction that is totally absent from the statement that Bush's approval rating is higher than Congress'.

[Lemeritus]

"The long-term goal of beating the Republican nominee took a back seat to the short-term goal of proving one’s viability by tearing down the other Democratic candidate. We lost sight of the general election, we lost sight of the true opponent and if we continue to be shortsighted, I fear we will lose in November.” Rep. Peter DeFazio in an open letter to both Obama and Clinton.

The letter continues: "Allow the Democratic voters to believe in a campaign that can provide a new direction for this country and stop McCain from continuing the failed policies of the Bush Administration. In the end, it is the candidate who can take the fight to McCain and win that deserves my support and, most importantly, the support of the Democratic Party."

McCain is, if anything, more frightening than Bush, yet he continues unchallenged. And, as Mr. Loewe notes, "....the media portrayal of McCain as an anti-Republican has been so universal that 44% of Democrats view him favorably.­..." There are those on this site (who I refer to as sunshine liberals) who have vowed to vote for McCain if their favorite candidate loses the nomination (a position which I consider half treason, half lunacy, and the worst of both).

If our candidates (BOTH of them) can't refocus their attacks on McCain, if they and their surrogates continue to tear at one another, McCain will win in November. I do not share Mr. Loewe's optimisim, nor even his now disappointing poll numbers (which I suppose he meant to be telling in some way) -- the latest RealClearPolitics poll averages (available at that site and on the Washington Post) show BOTH candidates ahead of McCain ONLY, ONLY, ONLY by 1.5% That kind of lead makes a margin of error meaningless, statistically and politically.

[ME08]

If our candidates (BOTH of them) can't refocus their attacks on McCain, if they and their surrogates continue to tear at one another, McCain will win in November.

I agree completely­...attacki­ng one another is fruitless, and attacking McCain with the same gotcha kind of politics is no good either...h­is stands on so many issues are wrong, a Dem could make plenty of hay on that alone, without resorting to ad hominem attacks.

[BOfever]

It's close because one man does not represent an entire way of thinking. People are still Catholic despte hating what some of the leaders have done.

I also think it has a lot to do with reality, meaning reality is the US Government is becoming too big and they want to take another step towards socialism to take over your health care (which we cannot afford at this point in time as a country).

[hopeless277]

Voters are stupid. They eat what they are fed. As long as Republicans own 90% of the media corporations, McCain's secret will remain secret. When you realize that 72% of Americans don't even know(or care) the number of dead Americans in Iraq, you just have to realize that John McCain could definately be our next Decider.

[MPCarr]

If I were you, I would get out and away from the liberal friends that surround you, and you will find out there are conservatives in this country as well. While some may not be happy with Bush, they aren't going to abandon their values and principles and turn this country over to a Democrat. They are going to elect another conservative who shares their values and move forward.

Conservatives have some issues with Bush, but they are specifically about his spending and immigration reform. Although they may be tired of the war, the want it to come to the right conclusion. McCain seems to understand he has to unite the Republicans around these issues that are important to conservatives. On most issues, he is in line with them--pro life, low taxes, less government, etc.

You should be careful about relying of polls. While Bush's approval ratings may be low, the Democratic Congress is half of that. The presidential race will be pretty much 50 - 50, as the country is and the past elections have been.

[Marlyn]

"they aren't going to abandon their values" ???

Their values are WAR, war, and more war.
They are INSANE!

[joebaggadonuts]

Oh what a package. Where to start?

MPCarr said: "Although they may be tired of the war, the want it to come to the right conclusion­." Just like when they voted for Nixon to bring an honorable end to Viet Nam. And you will note that on a relative basis, the voting public in the US is today LESS well educated than they were then.

Values and Principles? Like it's more important to keep people who don't look like you out of the country than to give them a fair break? Like it's more important to pretend to fight Bin Laden than to actually have a foreign policy that is good for the people of the nation? Like pretend that all "Death Taxes(TM)" are bad when the cultural environment lets the Paris Hiltons become role models for pre-teens BECAUSE they don't pay taxes on huge inheritances? Like cheaper is always better and the yellow lines on the road of American commerce should get painted over because the big truckers want wider lanes regardless of where they are going or who is going in a different direction?

The only values and principles we have seen from the hijacked conservative movement is this. Crush anybody who gets in the way of the wealthiest and most powerful. Oh, they talk about how the government is too big, but when they want another trillion taxpayer dollars to bail out the stupid greedy financial institutions or pay for a war of convenience gone bad, then it's OK with them.

Liars and cheats rule while this cabal is in control. Get used to it.

If the American public would simply read the book Luntz wrote to apologize for allowing these crooks into power, they might wake up. He won't admit it's an apology, but I see it as is his attempt to atone for his sin. Words That Work http://www.luntz.com/book_overview.html . Read it and wake up so you can understand how we were duped and who is responsible for this global tragedy.

[sugarmoes]

wasn't it nice of the gop to make an historical sized mess and now it's blamed on the one-year old democratic congress? amazing isn't it?

please keep me far away from these so-called conservative "values". they suck.

[Marlyn]

"why is John McCain's margin so close?"

Nobody actually knows how Americans feel UNTIL they vote.
ALL of these polls are OPINION MAKERS and not opinion takers.
So the answer to WHY the margin is close is that Republicans are running the polls.
It is that simple.

[BOfever]

We do know this though, about 40% of Americans want more Government in their lives & higher taxes (Democrats) and about 40% of Americans want less Government in their lives & lower taxes. The middle will decide it like they always do.

[sugarmoes]

actually it's bush and republicans who offers more government (big brother peeping in on you) and RIDICULOUS spending not to mention constant ridiculous decision making.

or maybe this war will pay for itself with all the oil we loot... yeah... that's the ticket.

[dora rice]

I think I know why McCaine is so close. Because a center democrat is rejected. We are being blackmailed to vote for a lefter than left candidate. It won't happen. fact.

[ME08]

Excellent point...th­e most radical elements of the party assume that their ideas are the ones that the nation at large believes, as do the nuts on the far right...bo­th are dead wrong...th­e brunt of the voters have no time or energy for endless back and forth whining and bitching, endless childish namecalling, endless personal attacks vs. discussing the dire issues that confront the nation. No one gives a RAT'S ASS anymore who was for the war when...the fact is we are there, so rehashing the shoulda woulda shit is just endless bloviating­...what are the candidates going to do now? McCain plans on continuing the status quo, by no means a viable option. Meanwhile, we need to know exactly what Hillary and Obama plan...and both know that a fast withdrawal from Iraq is a disastrous idea...I use to think immediate withdrawal was essential, but it seems obvious now that that is not a workable option...a disastrous situation would become total bedlam, it is all but guaranteed. Letting Afghanistan slide was the precise cause of the escalating violence there and resurgence or revitalized Taliban.

[jstock]

dorarice and other neocons who have infiltrated this space: the political "center" is what you find when a majority of people think the same way on a given issue. Most people, based on every poll taken in recent years, would like single-payer healthcare in this country. This doesn't make it right or wrong, but it does make it "centrist.­" Or at least mainstream, not "left."

In other words, maybe you belong in a different party.

[poomplet]

This is why we're gonna lose in November.

Just because people hate Bush, that doesn't automatically make them Democrats!!! Of the 70% of people who hate Bush/the War....ove­r 50% of them are either traditional GOPers or independents who will have no trouble voting for McCain..if he chooses a decent, non Jesus-Freaky running mate.

Republicans & independants who tend to vote republicans have always outnumbered liberal dems...hea­vily. And all the Democratic infighting is going to scare away the moderates & indies...a­nd a helluva lotta Liberals are gonna sit out because their candidate didn't win.

Dem leaders & pundits like Dylan condescendingly assume people who are dissatisfied w/Bush are automatically gonna vote for the Dem. nominee. This assumption­...this cockiness.­..is going to bite us in the ass.

[joebaggadonuts]

Absolutely right poomplet. That's why there's so little left wing talk radio and relatively so many right wing blog sites. Sure we're more intelligent about the future, but people on the whole don't get it. To expect them to is foolishness. We have to adopt tactix like Frank Luntz used to sell these folks on the Contract on America.

I am very concerned that there is no way to turn this around in the time remaining. The financial debacle MAY wake them up, but their long knives are already out, blaming the Democratically controlled Congress since 2006 for this disaster. If they repeat it loud enough and often enough and couple it with personal attacks on the Democratic candidates, the public will buy it, and we will have become....­. that which is not to be named.

[ME08]

Right you are...the Caucus going Dems are as far from the mainstream as the Repub caucus goers...ea­ch pushing for an extreme agenda that the rest of the nation has no intention of going along with...and you are right, the more petty the sniping and whiney the attacks, the more most MOR voters are going to reject the Dems. Obamabots blame Clinton for attacks and vice versa...th­is schoolyard game has to end, or we can kiss the White House buh bye for a long time.